OT: Corona virus

[MakeeLearn]

How does one take down a dying Super Power?

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

One thing that strikes me is that China seemed to react swiftly and strongly enough to confine the outbreak to a particular region within their own country.

The question then raises itself - how in contrast did it get out and spread so far internationally? Were the Chinese withholding information and frustrating the kinds of measures that could have pinned the virus down when it started appearing elsewhere?

Meh. Some 15MM people left Wuhan prior to the last trains stopping. There was pandemonium and chaos on the (packed) last trains out. Presumably they wanted to get out of the area for the pending Chinese New Year and visit their families back in their 'home' provinces. It's quite likely that many of these were infected and then took the virus out of Wuhan to their families. If you look at a map of Chinese infections you'll see that most of their provinces have some positive cases.

It's also quite likely-probable even-that when these same visiting people got sick and developed symptoms they either intentionally did not self-report to the authorities (for fear of what the government would do to them or the stigma associated with being infected). REPORTED Chinese cases outside of Wuhan area have been very low. Inexplicably low by what we know now about the virus' ability to transmit efficiently in large social settings.

So applying Occam's razor-the most likely explanation for the REPORTED lack of spread throughout China isn't that it didn't spread through China. It's that it wasn't reported / was lied about / was downplayed / was covered up.

Who knows really. The Chinese may well have a much bigger problem out in the countryside that they are covering up. But for me an outbreak on a similar scale to Wuhan/Lombardy/Madrid etc in a city like Beijing with 20m people is not something that even the Chinese could keep under wraps.

what have you heard about the state of their military, through all of this?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

What number is this? 15MM?

15 million. 15,000,000. Sometimes the "M" is used to designate million, sometimes "MM" is used in abbreviative parlance.

I probably should have said "Wubei", but meant the area around Wuhan rather than the city-and only the city-of Wuhan proper.

Here's Wuhan's mayor:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor ... 2020-01-26

They also intentionally held a record breaking potluck-style dinner hosting 40,000 people within the city after the outbreak was a recognized issue.

Here's a description of the chaos aboard the last trains out:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relief-and ... 1579791131

"Once they close our way out, who is brave enough to stay?" Indeed. Also, who would be brave enough to admit, after leaving Wuhan, that they had started another hotspot in a different province?

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


what have you heard about the state of their military, through all of this?

Nothing - what have you heard and what do you think it means? In plain english if possible and not in Delphic utterances.

[alanschu]

That's what I'd expect, with the US having 5.33x the population.

I was just sad because it was quite a large spike compared to previous days and represented an increase that was quite a bit higher than even the 1.26 rate that every three day doubling has. Although the previous days were lower than the trend line was indicating and it's not like viruses are going to neatly adhere to a mathematical timeline.


Taking the new number at the starting point and assuming a 10 day plateau:

4 day doubling: stopping the climb in 13 days leads to 101k fatalities at end of plateau
3 day doubling: stopping the climb in 9 days leads to 99k fatalities

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


what have you heard about the state of their military, through all of this?

Nothing - what have you heard and what do you think it means? In plain english if possible and not in Delphic utterances.

[:D]

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


what have you heard about the state of their military, through all of this?

Nothing - what have you heard and what do you think it means? In plain english if possible and not in Delphic utterances.

Not much. Some info says that are they helping the citizens. Other info it's very little "For Show" help. They held "Golden Dragon" Military Exercise with Cambodia that ended on 30Mar.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: obvert

What number is this? 15MM?

15 million. 15,000,000. Sometimes the "M" is used to designate million, sometimes "MM" is used in abbreviative parlance.

I probably should have said "Wubei", but meant the area around Wuhan rather than the city-and only the city-of Wuhan proper.

Here's Wuhan's mayor:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor ... 2020-01-26

They also intentionally held a record breaking potluck-style dinner hosting 40,000 people within the city after the outbreak was a recognized issue.

Here's a description of the chaos aboard the last trains out:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relief-and ... 1579791131

"Once they close our way out, who is brave enough to stay?" Indeed. Also, who would be brave enough to admit, after leaving Wuhan, that they had started another hotspot in a different province?

So 5 million left, and went all over the place. So maybe it's been shut down in the rest of China or maybe it's a more established form of "the dance" stage, where outbreaks flare constantly and are suppressed. Hard to know, but it seems like we'd hear something, especially from Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong.

My wife has business partners in Sian, and they uniformly state things are back to normal outside of cinemas being closed.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

American intelligence agencies report to the President that China......wait for it...LIED about the numbers...thus hampering public health decisions worldwide and making containment impossible.

I'm shocked I tell you...SHOCKED!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... gence-says

Cap, sit down and have a Corona. You'll feel better.

[MakeeLearn]

But then the Chinese Army would not be needed until much later.
You can get the enemy to do to itself what you have a lot of problems to do to them.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: obvert

What number is this? 15MM?

15 million. 15,000,000. Sometimes the "M" is used to designate million, sometimes "MM" is used in abbreviative parlance.

I probably should have said "Wubei", but meant the area around Wuhan rather than the city-and only the city-of Wuhan proper.

Here's Wuhan's mayor:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor ... 2020-01-26

They also intentionally held a record breaking potluck-style dinner hosting 40,000 people within the city after the outbreak was a recognized issue.

Here's a description of the chaos aboard the last trains out:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relief-and ... 1579791131

"Once they close our way out, who is brave enough to stay?" Indeed. Also, who would be brave enough to admit, after leaving Wuhan, that they had started another hotspot in a different province?

So 5 million left, and went all over the place. So maybe it's been shut down in the rest of China or maybe it's a more established form of "the dance" stage, where outbreaks flare constantly and are suppressed. Hard to know, but it seems like we'd hear something, especially from Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong.

My wife has business partners in Sian, and they uniformly state things are back to normal outside of cinemas being closed.

Will be SO [:)] when that happens here.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: obvert

What number is this? 15MM?

15 million. 15,000,000. Sometimes the "M" is used to designate million, sometimes "MM" is used in abbreviative parlance.

I probably should have said "Wubei", but meant the area around Wuhan rather than the city-and only the city-of Wuhan proper.

Here's Wuhan's mayor:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor ... 2020-01-26

They also intentionally held a record breaking potluck-style dinner hosting 40,000 people within the city after the outbreak was a recognized issue.

Here's a description of the chaos aboard the last trains out:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relief-and ... 1579791131

"Once they close our way out, who is brave enough to stay?" Indeed. Also, who would be brave enough to admit, after leaving Wuhan, that they had started another hotspot in a different province?

So 5 million left, and went all over the place. So maybe it's been shut down in the rest of China or maybe it's a more established form of "the dance" stage, where outbreaks flare constantly and are suppressed. Hard to know, but it seems like we'd hear something, especially from Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong.

My wife has business partners in Sian, and they uniformly state things are back to normal outside of cinemas being closed.

Aye. Maybe they skewed their 'hammer' early-and had the death curve up front. Now that everyone has been exposed and either died or recovered (and is no longer susceptible) or dropped the R0 below 1.0 things will tame back down for the survivors. Nobody knows what their death toll was for the whole country by opting for that approach. Which is why transparency in deaths is important for the international community to understand how better to grapple with this.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




15 million. 15,000,000. Sometimes the "M" is used to designate million, sometimes "MM" is used in abbreviative parlance.

I probably should have said "Wubei", but meant the area around Wuhan rather than the city-and only the city-of Wuhan proper.

Here's Wuhan's mayor:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor ... 2020-01-26

They also intentionally held a record breaking potluck-style dinner hosting 40,000 people within the city after the outbreak was a recognized issue.

Here's a description of the chaos aboard the last trains out:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relief-and ... 1579791131

"Once they close our way out, who is brave enough to stay?" Indeed. Also, who would be brave enough to admit, after leaving Wuhan, that they had started another hotspot in a different province?

So 5 million left, and went all over the place. So maybe it's been shut down in the rest of China or maybe it's a more established form of "the dance" stage, where outbreaks flare constantly and are suppressed. Hard to know, but it seems like we'd hear something, especially from Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong.

My wife has business partners in Sian, and they uniformly state things are back to normal outside of cinemas being closed.

Will be SO [:)] when that happens here.

What? When cinemas close? [:'(]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I probably should have said "Wubei", but meant the area around Wuhan rather than the city-and only the city-of Wuhan proper.

You'll see it anglicized as "Hubei".

[Cap Mandrake]

Doing telehealth...between consults the camera goes back to me so I move my head around and adjust seating for the best shot.[:)]

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Doing telehealth...between consults the camera goes back to me so I move my head around and adjust seating for the best shot.[:)]

Oh, is that want they call it now[:-]

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

But then the Chinese Army would not be needed until much later.
You can get the enemy to do to itself what you have a lot of problems to do to them.

This is exactly what I previously alluded to about Delphic utterances.

In the UK we used to have a TV show called Catchphrase. The catchphrase of Catchphrase was 'say what you see'.

Do you think that China deliberately spread this virus (by omission if not by commission) in order to pursue their own imperialistic aims, by military force if necessary?

If so - then 'say what you see'.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

But then the Chinese Army would not be needed until much later.
You can get the enemy to do to itself what you have a lot of problems to do to them.

This is exactly what I previously alluded to about Delphic utterances.

In the UK we used to have a TV show called Catchphrase. The catchphrase of Catchphrase was 'say what you see'.

Do you think that China deliberately spread this virus (by omission if not by commission) in order to pursue their own imperialistic aims, by military force if necessary?

If so - then 'say what you see'.

Trying to keep the words, or arguments, from locking the thread. It is a scenario, even w/o their military force.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

But then the Chinese Army would not be needed until much later.
You can get the enemy to do to itself what you have a lot of problems to do to them.

This is exactly what I previously alluded to about Delphic utterances.

In the UK we used to have a TV show called Catchphrase. The catchphrase of Catchphrase was 'say what you see'.

Do you think that China deliberately spread this virus (by omission if not by commission) in order to pursue their own imperialistic aims, by military force if necessary?

If so - then 'say what you see'.

Trying to keep the words, from locking the thread. It is a scenario, even w/o their military force.

Fair enough. FWIW I don't discount it as a possibility. I'd be surprised if saying it 'out loud' would get the thread locked but then I guess that is a matter for the mods and not me.

[MakeeLearn]

China, this is just a bump.
Where as we, USA, would do just about anything in response.


March 13, 2020,