Notes from a Small Island

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Genzan and Kanko were two of the original targets to follow the invasion of Sikhalin Island. It seems crazy now (and probably seemed crazy to all of you then) that I prepped armies for Korea. I really thought the invasion might be so successful that I might need to be prepared to leap forward quickly. That was pure crazy sauce. It's good to think and plan for success, but it's better if that's built on a realistic understanding of the initial assault. I wish I'd prepped those units for the Kuriles instead of Korea.

IIRC, it was the numbers and quality of the Japanese fighters that threw off your calculations of what you could achieve. Normally the Japanese would have been suffering enough for supply and fuel that such numbers and progress on advanced aircraft would have been unachievable, but low losses during the first couple of years of the war let Japan concentrate on hoarding pilots and good aircraft. Not something you could influence much after taking over in March 1944.

Against a most excellent IJ player you have done very well. The fact that it could still go either way keeps it high in kibitzer entertainment value! [:)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Genzan and Kanko were two of the original targets to follow the invasion of Sikhalin Island. It seems crazy now (and probably seemed crazy to all of you then) that I prepped armies for Korea. I really thought the invasion might be so successful that I might need to be prepared to leap forward quickly. That was pure crazy sauce. It's good to think and plan for success, but it's better if that's built on a realistic understanding of the initial assault. I wish I'd prepped those units for the Kuriles instead of Korea.

Not so crazy unless this meant you had nothing prepped for the Kuriles.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Genzan and Kanko were two of the original targets to follow the invasion of Sikhalin Island. It seems crazy now (and probably seemed crazy to all of you then) that I prepped armies for Korea. I really thought the invasion might be so successful that I might need to be prepared to leap forward quickly. That was pure crazy sauce. It's good to think and plan for success, but it's better if that's built on a realistic understanding of the initial assault. I wish I'd prepped those units for the Kuriles instead of Korea.

Not so crazy unless this meant you had nothing prepped for the Kuriles.

This is true, plus as soon as the troops are ashore you can immedately start prepping for the next target. IMO by '45 the Allied superiority in firepower is so great that they can do without the added bonus of 100% for combat if it means shaving a few weeks off prep time for the next target.

My money is on somewhere on Northern Honshu. Maraizu or thereabouts, supported by grabing Oki Shoto and Ulleungdo. If the Allies get airbases set up here in such close access to the major IJ aircraft centres, is lights out for the Empire.

[Canoerebel]

The Air War, as BBfanboy notes, is wonky. It's the only advantage Erik has in the game, but it's significant. If balance of power in the air were about equal or in favor of the Allies, the game would essentially be over now.

The USAAF is in decent shape, with good pools and good pilot reserves. The P-50D and the P-47D25 are pretty good in several select roles. The P-38L can be useful in minimal roles.

The US Navy is in pretty bad shape. The pools and pilot reserves are low, but the key factor is that the Hellcat and the Corsair cannot stand up against the elite enemy army fighters. The problem is max altitude. But the carriers are massive in number and should be able to absorb at least one good blow perhaps more.

The challenge is going to be to achieve something significant quickly, before Erik has enough time to achieve multiple massed air battles that will hurt my Naval air power, especially if Army air isn't able to come in quickly enough. That's why prep is important in this case (I understand and agree with generalizations about late-war Allied power, but often local circumstances - meaning circumstances in this game - may negate traditional thinking).

I've considered many options, sort of like preparing an Environmental assessment before embarking on a major public works project. By law, "doing nothing" has to be one of the options considered. I considered that here - waiting for the next gen Army (and even Navy) fighters to come online. For many reasons, this option isn't really viable. I think the plan has a decent chance of success, so I will proceed.

But the Air War is wonked beyond belief, so just about any result is possible here, ranging from a decisive Allied victory to the utter gutting of Allied naval air power that might set back the Allies by six months or more. Seriously.

[JohnDillworth]

Obverts production, factories, resources, fuel, oil and economy are almost entirely untouched and his supply lines to the DEI appears intact. He can simply outproduce you in aircraft and can select what aircraft to produce. There is nothing you can do about your production (such is the game). The sub war is not what it should be (Japan nuclear escorts)so you options are limited. At this stage of the game cutting his supply lines is not feasible and Japan probably is pretty deep in reserves anyway. So your only choice is to try and break even in the air, get ALL you bombers in range, and take your army to the enemy. Air, Army, Navy...you have an advantage in 2 of those 3 so thats what you are bringing. I guess the only other thing you can do in the air is try to out train him in pilots. Once the brightest cherry blossoms have fallen even the best aircraft won't help

[Canoerebel]

You're right, John. The "next big thing" plan is built with those things in mind.

[Canoerebel]

2/3/45 and 2/4/45

NoPac: Death Star and the Ingressing Herd made Shikuka today. That brings to an end a complex operation that took place forward enough to bear some risk. For instance, 100 assault ships (APA and AKA) were used to extract an army from Etorofu. Those ships were under 150 good army fighters and under LRCAP from Death Star. But there was a chance Erik could blast through that CAP, using sweeps and escorted strike packages, and neuter the next big thing before it got underway.

[Lokasenna]

Nuclear escorts aren't a thing anymore, if either a DBB scenario or the scenario data patch is being used.

[Canoerebel]

I think you're referring to the weakness of escorting fighters (not to escorting ships, like DDs).

You're right that escorting fighters get chewed up. I'm counting on that, to an extent. But had Erik sent his elite fighters to sweep Etorofu, and had well-escorted and large strike packages come in, the chances are they would have overcome Allied CAP and savaged the host of assault shipping there. That's what I meant to say, though I may not have said it clearly.

[Capt. Harlock]

The USAAF is in decent shape, with good pools and good pilot reserves. The P-50D and the P-47D25 are pretty good in several select roles.

If the P-50's are doing well, you must have the Blackhawks Squadron!

[Canoerebel]

That's an illegal use of a cultural reference, Capt. Harlock! I had to look it up!

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think you're referring to the weakness of escorting fighters (not to escorting ships, like DDs).

You're right that escorting fighters get chewed up. I'm counting on that, to an extent. But had Erik sent his elite fighters to sweep Etorofu, and had well-escorted and large strike packages come in, the chances are they would have overcome Allied CAP and savaged the host of assault shipping there. That's what I meant to say, though I may not have said it clearly.

I was referring to the "Super E's", which I think is what John was referring to as well given the sentence about the sub war not being what it should be.

With the database patch such that there isn't a 8x DC device (it's split into 4 of 2x), they don't land the ridiculous hits.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the clarification. I know I was facing uber E-class in my game against John III. I'm not sure in this game, only because there haven't been very many encounters.

[Canoerebel]

2/5/45

NoPac: A fascinating turn. Death Star and a bunch of empty transports moved south from Shikuka towards Wakkanai. This may appear like an invasion force, to Erik, but it's actually a mission to retrieve units from Wakkanai. He'll have to adjust all kinds of things, allowing for bombardments of his biggest airfields, invasion, etc.

All along the coastline, Allied craft are probing - subs in the Sea of Japan, YMS at Sapporo and Bihoro, etc. Against this is to give the appearance of interest here, there, everywhere.

At Shikuka, the ingressing herd fully unloaded in a single day. Loading of invasion troops may commence tonight, although I first have to check to see if all troops have low disruption, as some where aboard ship a long time. I think the invasion forces may be able to get underway in about two days, no more than three.

Erik chose today to launch large-scale sweeps of Shikuka by his good fighters. The Allies came out ahead, especially in terms of quality of aircraft expended. I wish he would continue this, but he'll probably have to pull his fighters back from his Hokkaido airfields, out of fear of Allied bombardments.

The pressure will increase tomorrow, as DS moves towards Sapporo. How Erik reacts should be interesting. HOw he then reacts the day after, when DS suddenly moves back towards Shikuka, will also be interesting.

It would be a gift for Erik to wear out his air force now, but I doubt he will.

[Canoerebel]

2/5/45

The Next Big Thing Prep: Prep for the major combat units at Shikuka ranges from the 30s to about 80. The five infantry/cav divisions range from 34 to 53. At Wakkanai, the three divisions that will be picked up are at 62, 68 and 70.

The Amphib Force HQ is already aboard an AGC and has 75% prep. That's decent.

Overall, the prep is minimally acceptable. I'd like it to be higher, but this is indicative of the tension between prep and speed. It's time to get this show on the road.

To this point, the retrieval of units has gone without a hitch - bringing back major units from forwards positions. Erik is good at spotting weakenesses and launching spoiling attacks, so I sweated the entire process.

Wakkanai is the last hurdle. I don't think he'll pounce tomorrow or the day after, because he'll likely need a day or two or three to process the sudden move by Death Star and what it might mean.

The invasion is well-planned and configured, I believe. It might run afoul of his mighty air force and suffer greivously. If I can get all of my troops loaded in good order, I'm ready to accept that challenge.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for the clarification. I know I was facing uber E-class in my game against John III. I'm not sure in this game, only because there haven't been very many encounters.

Unless you and Erik updated the database, you are facing the Super-E's. Perhaps Erik sacrificed many of them during the first naval battles for the Kuriles and area.

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Joseph, I'm glad you're reading! I am always grateful to you for bequeathing such an immense OOB (and pilots pools). I've done my best to use your bequests wisely, but haven't always succeeded.

I hope you're having a good autumn. Or is it winter there, already? It's still summer here.

Erik did suffer tremendous riff-raff losses during the Battles of Shikuka Island. By riff-raff, I mean ships (sometimes good ones) smaller than DD in size.

[Canoerebel]

2/6/45

NoPac: DD Thanet tangles with the lingering enemy PB TF SE of Japan. This was set up to give Erik something else to consider but took place a day earlier than I wished. When I checked distance yesterday, I thought everything was "just right." If Erik sends out air patrols tomorrow, he might pick up some stuff before I wanted him to.

A USN sub hit a mine at Bihoro, on Hokkaido's north coast. I accepted that risk to ring the doorbell there, too. Subs entering ports at Genzan, Kanko, and a port on Japan's west coast didn't encounter mines. Neither did the YMS that's been loitering at Sapporo for two days.

I wonder if Erik withdrew his fighters from his forward bases? I bet he did. Let's see.

[Canoerebel]

2/6/45

NoPac: So very much going on, as both of us deal with many uncertainties and some probabilities. We both know in general what's unfolding, but not enough to predict exactly...and there are the vagaries of chance, weather, dice rolls, something overlooked, etc.

In addition to the probing in NoPac, the Allies are making some noise south of Port Blair in the Bay of Bengal, where Erik has (undoubtedly) long-expected an invasion. I'm not counting on anything important, but it's worth a try.

[Canoerebel]

I decided to err on the side of caution. Then I changed my mind. The opening moves in Operation The Next Big Thing should take place tomorrow. Erik will gain a much better idea of my plan, but I hope to achieve a few key things that will help clear the path for the main body.