The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[Lowpe]

Why are the thunderbolt squadrons so small? They look like early British fighter squadrons.[:)]

Judging from this maneuver (the meandering juggernaut), I think you have won the air war temporarily, and the Allies seek to get VP elsewhere, i.e. on the ground.

I still really have no clue where they are going. Formosa makes no sense, Korea not much sense, so my main guess is China somewhere so that means there must simply be millions of supply in those fleets.

So, I think you are still in for a long war, and will see Soviet activation, and some Japanese late war toys.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Why are the thunderbolt squadrons so small? They look like early British fighter squadrons.[:)]

Judging from this maneuver (the meandering juggernaut), I think you have won the air war temporarily, and the Allies seek to get VP elsewhere, i.e. on the ground.

I still really have no clue where they are going. Formosa makes no sense, Korea not much sense, so my main guess is China somewhere so that means there must simply be millions of supply in those fleets.

So, I think you are still in for a long war, and will see Soviet activation, and some Japanese late war toys.

Maybe. The points game can turn quickly in 45 and any big missteps will give him the confidence to throw everything at me.

Those same P-47N unit swept and suffered a 1:1 against CAP at Iwaki before a B-29 strike. About 45 were lost on April 28. So I am assuming, since he would have had time to refill some of those groups that he simply doesn't have enough airframes. They only started in March, and there are only maybe 3 x 25 plane groups arriving with them since they became available. So that would be about 275 total planes by now. Having lost about 90-100 before this turn might make his 7-8 groups a bit under strength, possibly.

In general he may also realise that the later groups have tended to do better, and the more waves there are, the more effectively the CAP is worn down. That did happen with a few small packets this turn too.

I'd guess he doesn't have a large group of elite pilots anymore as well.

[Lowpe]

It is hard to tell where is what and in strength from your picture. Is the KB not spotted? Is it possible to hit the rear of the juggernaut?

[obvert]

Here is a more detailed shot. I did make a effort to hit the rear just on the turn he moved NW. Some ships spread to the North and only a few screening TFs stayed to the sides on the North. I don't think the KB launched. LBA came from everywhere though which is good.

Now I'll move things back and keep the LR strikes on. The KB will be in range of Kume-jima and ready to roll. I don't think the Allies will want a fight on our terms though. With defensive additions from nearby LBA the KB can hope to stand up to the much larger DS. Maybe.

[Lowpe]

Looks to me, and from the empty bases, he is going for Formosa or China, with Formosa being my first choice, or Okinawa, or really who knows.[&:]

It is so hard to tell how many troops are present in this armada from naval search limitations...1,000 ships, 2,000 ships? 5 Divisions, 10 or 20?

One of the least attractive aspects of the game, sadly, and it has come back to bite many Japanese players.

I am curious how your sigint is doing at tracking the armada?

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Alfred

1.  I've already stated that speed is important in getting through Allied CAP/flak to get the kamikaze plane into position to generate a hit.  There is no connection between speed and the size of the "boom" from the hit.

Two questions, the first because I want to ensure I understand and the second because I'm nosey.

- When you say CAP/flak, do you mean that airspeed plays in to evading both CAP and flak fire?

- Does this apply only in the context of kamikaze strikes or does it apply to conventional attacks also?

Qualified Yes.

Alfred

[CaptBeefheart]

I haven't read too much of your AAR since I had this idea that I might advise CR and didn't want to break OPSEC, but my advice has pretty much been limited to ideas on how to structure amphibious TFs. I must say I can pick up a lot of small details from reading your side of the story.

I see you've tried some night air attacks on ships. Have you ever had any luck with that and, if so, under what circumstances?

By the way, kudos to both of you gentlemen for keeping this struggle very, very interesting.

Cheers,
CB

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Looks to me, and from the empty bases, he is going for Formosa or China, with Formosa being my first choice, or Okinawa, or really who knows.[&:]

It is so hard to tell how many troops are present in this armada from naval search limitations...1,000 ships, 2,000 ships? 5 Divisions, 10 or 20?

One of the least attractive aspects of the game, sadly, and it has come back to bite many Japanese players.

I am curious how your sigint is doing at tracking the armada?

I think coast of China with Formosa asa backup if needed. He'll probably not need it, but may want the points.

He's still doing heavy recon on the Northern Manchuria and Chinese coastline, and on the Indochinese coastline into Southern China. I'm guessing this could be a multi-stage set of invasions, with opportunity dictating how many bases are taken. If the withdrawal from Burma was stalled I have no doubt Indochina and SW China would be on the menu. Since my troops are already getting to Udon Thani and beginning to walk toward Vinh, (with a smaller number going through Saigon and railing along the coastline just to hedge bets), I think he'll focus more on the Wenchow to Amoy range and possibly up to near Shanghai.

I'll have about 1400AV in Shanghai within a few days, and can bring more fairly quickly if rail is still open, but that's a big if. Forts are nearing level 8 there.

I'd imagine he's got 80% of what he brought to the North in the mob right now. That's probably 10k+AV and lots of AA, engineers and air support for setting up shop. From my Allied game I know that if prep is right I can pretty much land a 5k AV Army anywhere within a day. One thing that might be interesting here is a lack of APA/AKA for all of the good troops. So unload times may be a bit longer in some places.

I've not looked at SIGINT at ay point in the past several weeks. I feel like I can "see" what I need to see here. I'll have a peek for you next time I get in the save folder though.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: obvert
... I'm guessing this could be a multi-stage set of invasions, with opportunity dictating how many bases are taken. ...

I'm only an occasional viewer here, but from what I am looking at in your screenshots I would be thinking the same thing.
I wouldn't be surprised if he had a half dozen or more locations prepped in his convoys. Good idea, makes it hard to react.
On the other hand with only a couple of units prepped for a target, it means you have better odds to dislodge him as he won't have overwhelming force prepped for wherever he does land.

Good Luck!

[adarbrauner]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



It is so hard to tell how many troops are present in this armada from naval search limitations...1,000 ships, 2,000 ships? 5 Divisions, 10 or 20?

One of the least attractive aspects of the game, sadly, and it has come back to bite many Japanese players.

Not sure I grasp or understand what you mean by that?


If I thought of game limitations in (air) recon, I'd pinpoint lack of details in land recon by air, against a too fair overall count of "troops" and equipment in a 40 x 40 miles piece of terrain, by a very few recon flights?

But naval recon in game? Close to perfect?

(Well apart from the hated precise count of airplanes on the decks-but not in the air - a reference to the ominous naval CAP trap..)

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

I haven't read too much of your AAR since I had this idea that I might advise CR and didn't want to break OPSEC, but my advice has pretty much been limited to ideas on how to structure amphibious TFs. I must say I can pick up a lot of small details from reading your side of the story.

I see you've tried some night air attacks on ships. Have you ever had any luck with that and, if so, under what circumstances?

By the way, kudos to both of you gentlemen for keeping this struggle very, very interesting.

Cheers,
CB

Soe have gotten a few hits. A Kate landed a 250kg bomb from 1k on an LST or LCI a while back. I haven't hit the big boys with more flak in recent memory, but I know I did a bit in the game with Jocke. That was before flak fixes though.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: obvert
... I'm guessing this could be a multi-stage set of invasions, with opportunity dictating how many bases are taken. ...

I'm only an occasional viewer here, but from what I am looking at in your screenshots I would be thinking the same thing.
I wouldn't be surprised if he had a half dozen or more locations prepped in his convoys. Good idea, makes it hard to react.
On the other hand with only a couple of units prepped for a target, it means you have better odds to dislodge him as he won't have overwhelming force prepped for wherever he does land.

Good Luck!

Out of the 30-40 bases that have been reconned lately, several with small units are in range right now for him, including Wenchow. I left very little there as its so isolated. I figured it's impossible to defend the Chinese coastline to the South, but if I make the North more attractive and invite a landing at a place like Wenchow, at least I have time to move troops on the rail to react.

About half of the Chinese Expeditionary Force is in the mountains containing the Chinese from re-entering their territory. It'll be easy going for a while no matter where the Allies land, but I hope to make the big VP targets a struggle at least.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Out of the 30-40 bases that have been retconned lately, several with small units are in range right now for him, including Wenchow. I left very little there as its so isolated.

Keep in mind that Wenchow works both ways. It'll be rather difficult for him to move out from there quickly. But, he can dump a bunch of stuff there and build it up quickly. He can do that anywhere, so that's a moot point.

You have some naval forces it that area, right? How much intel do you think he has on them? What do you have?

[obvert]

I haven't been showing as much of the economy and production as I should at this point in game. I'll try to do some updates on this before everything falls apart here late. It does seem we're reaching a turning point, so maybe good to document where things are before that.

These are the air and engine production numbers.

I've highlighted in red the most important (to me)for this endgame in order to protect everything else; F/FB/NF

In green are the MB/DB/TB/R/TR/FP/PAT

In blue are the ready but not producing airframes

The orange is active R & D that is producing points.

I'm running short on Ha-34 as is shown here, but building more. The Shinden is arriving in June and also uses this engine, so I'll be just about caught up by mid-June barring other destructive events. I'll turn the Patsy on when I can, maybe.

The Ha-35 is running on it's pool and underproducing, as is the Ha-32 with a much smaller pool. I've shut off the Emily and might turn the Emily transport off soon.

I'm overproducing Ha-45 to be able to make the Frank and others late into the game, hopefully. I've also got a lot of Ha-33 which give me the Randy line, an important part of my production now as the NF comes online and with the others an important part of Home Island defence.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: obvert

Out of the 30-40 bases that have been retconned lately, several with small units are in range right now for him, including Wenchow. I left very little there as its so isolated.

Keep in mind that Wenchow works both ways. It'll be rather difficult for him to move out from there quickly. But, he can dump a bunch of stuff there and build it up quickly. He can do that anywhere, so that's a moot point.

You have some naval forces it that area, right? How much intel do you think he has on them? What do you have?

I had one 5 CA 5 DD TF in the firing line plus one 1 CL 8 DD TF. I've moved the CAs to Shanghai to get under CAP. The CL led TF went to Takao to take the other edge. I'll see what opportunities develop, but I won't charge headlong into the fray with either. I'd like anyway to either plan a big combined strike and naval sortie or see an opportunity to catch stragglers.

Wenchow is just far enough it adds little to his capability in terms of sweeps, and he can already hit the entire HI from the North with the B-29s. He can use it to support further ops effectively, and that is why I would take it if I were him, but that is again a bit more time consumptive. In early May he has to begin moving somewhat quickly, I'd think.

[Mike Solli]

I'd go for stragglers too. If you sent them headlong into that mess, I'd wager you didn't hit anything important before being overwhelmed. Gotta get your VP worth out of them.

Looking at your aircraft/engine production, I see some things I'd question continuing to build.

Aichi Ha-60 engine: only building 5 but all you're using them for is the D4Y2-C. Are you sure you need to make any more? 1138 in the pool should last you through the end of the war.
Ha-31: You're only building the Nick at 30 (2E) but building the engines at 45. With 205 in the pool you'll run out in 13.6 months. You should be good through the end of the war.
Ha-32: Building 405, using 502. With 93 in the pool, you'll be out by the end of the month. You need to do something here.
Ha-33: Building 770, nice engine reserve of 1015. Building 679. Are you planning on increasing any production? Maybe the Dinah III? I'm sure they get shot down in droves. I don't know the difference between the Randy a and c, but you may want to look at that instead of building both. You're producing an excess of 91 so be careful here if you do increase production somewhere.
Ha-43: Building 795 increasing to 985. Production is 873. This is a big time late war engine. Surplus of 13, but you're building up to a 112 surplus. I hope you have more than 1 factory increasing so it takes less than 190 days. Take a look at this one, especially if you plan on increasing production of something here.
Ha-34: No production, 116 in pool. you're building 40 Helen IIb and 8 Helen transports. You'll be out in just over a month. You have 894 bombers in the pool and 1 transport. Not sure what you're planning, but I suspect you're building the bombers for Kamikazes. Do you want 8 more transports?
Ha-35: Building 270, 844 in the pool, using 513. You'll run out in 3.5 months. I recommend cancelling the Tojo. They're far outclassed now (and have been for quite a while). You have 221 in the pool so they'll still be available for some time yet. Also, the Nick KAIa. You have a lot of different models building. It may be time to reduce to a few based on need, engine type, capability, etc.
Ha-44: What's your plan here? No production, 266 in the pool, researching the Ki-94-II with 1 factory at 6(24) due in 1/46. Just curious...
Ha-45: Another biggie. Production 762 building to 816. 1279 in the pool. All good. Production at 642. Room to expand here should you feel the need. Why are you building the N1K2-J George if you're already building the K5? Seems like 40 wasted engines.

Just a few thoughts...

[Mike Solli]

Concerning the Ha-32, I'd recommend canning the Jack. Do you really like it? I don't build it so I'm not sure. I can't recall why I decided not but build it. That was many years ago. At any rate, something needs to give there.

[Lowpe]

Jack does well as a point defense interceptor, and has different characteristics in countering enemy sweeps. I am a big fan. It is better than George for some defensive tasks, whereas the George is better for offensive -- generally speaking.

Most JFBs go one way or the other, and I think that is a mistake.

[Lowpe]

You need to work on your JFB status here...

Where are the late game toys like the Betty 2e and Ohka?

Tell us about your Kaiten fleet of Iboats and Light Cruisers?

Where are you last ditch dedicated Kamikaze builds?

You have the Patsy but no production?

At least you will have the Shinden, so I guess you are still ok.[;)][:D]

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Here is a more detailed shot. I did make a effort to hit the rear just on the turn he moved NW. Some ships spread to the North and only a few screening TFs stayed to the sides on the North. I don't think the KB launched. LBA came from everywhere though which is good.

Now I'll move things back and keep the LR strikes on. The KB will be in range of Kume-jima and ready to roll. I don't think the Allies will want a fight on our terms though. With defensive additions from nearby LBA the KB can hope to stand up to the much larger DS. Maybe.

I see this screenshot and it just screams out the need for disruption task forces of any IJN ship that floats, just to cloud the battlespace!

If you're considering a carrier engagement, I'd throw those merchant convoys (provided they're empty) into the combat zone