Notes from a Small Island

[AcePylut]

So... bring about 40 divisions and necessary support troops to Hokkaido and pound them into submission with Sherman tanks. Use bombers to butcher his troops to make the invasion easier. Use fighters to CAP the "one or two massive convoys" needed to dump enough supply into the Island.

Don't stop, just keep the initiative and keep rolling forward.

Jap planes can't fly from airports they don't own

Or such. IDK again, just spitballing, but I think you can CAP a massive convoy or two.

[JohnDillworth]

The fighter production issue is really exacerbated by the fact that your opponent can concentrate every single fighter into the current attack vector. There is no other front. No China, no DEI, no Central pacific and just a bit of Burma. There is no place else he has to watch. All the action in this war is in small corner of the map and Japan has a thousand airfields here. You simply can't win the air war. You can't get air superiority so you can't really do an effective strategic bombing campaign either. You will have to try and break even in the air if you can and go with your strengths. Unless he runs out of good pilots your beating your head against a wall

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Lastly, I don't think it's the airframes themselves that are the problem. I think it is the slow pace of air ops prior to you taking the game.

I faced the same issues CR was when I took over the game as well. It's not the lack of combat, it's countering the low Japanese CAP that is the problem. I raised concern after concern in my AAR about not being able to achieve better than 1:1 results when sweeping with Allied aircraft. The low CAP gives Japan the numbers, climb and dive advantages over the smaller sized Allied sweeps. Learning how to defeat the Low CAP settings is how to beat Erik in the air.

Avoidance is a good thing too. Just defend what is necessary. Let the Japanese sweeps hit empty air and concentrate on somehow damaging those airbases and other aircraft in the rear by other means.

If I recall, I inherited good planes pools from Historiker as well, but I learned that Low CAP settings is a tactic that is hard to overcome and if you take it on in the traditional old way as an Allied player, you are quickly out of your best planes with pools almost empty.

Right - for example, assuming enough materiale is ashore at Wakkanai... why even bother defending in the air there? It's rough terrain, you can build forts at the base, and IJ level bombers are very anemic if not so ineffective/brittle as to be suicidal.

[Canoerebel]

John, I don't agree with that logic, though I've seen it said by many players many times.

I have the optimal situation right now - big airfields in proximity to his big bases. I can concentrate my air force while he has to spread his out somewhat.

If I had other major fronts going it would dilute his air power but mine too. And he would have the interior lines.

Burma has been hot on occasion, and the Allied air force has done fairly well there, but it really isn't effective to use it from the standpoint of "divide and conquer." I just means I divide and hurt myself. He's on the defense, which is easier.

I'd much rather have this position than to be fighting here and in the PI and in Burma, or whatever. Of course, that's assuming my air force was competitive.

[Canoerebel]

Loka, I don't defend the ground troops or airfield at Wakkanai. It's secure, from that standpoint.

But for the two turns I had important ships there loading an army, I did have to provide CAP. On the second turn, that CAP got savaged, and it was Spit VIIIs, Corsairs, Hellcats, Mustangs and Thunderbolts.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

So... bring about 40 divisions and necessary support troops to Hokkaido and pound them into submission with Sherman tanks. Use bombers to butcher his troops to make the invasion easier. Use fighters to CAP the "one or two massive convoys" needed to dump enough supply into the Island.

Don't stop, just keep the initiative and keep rolling forward.

Jap planes can't fly from airports they don't own

Or such. IDK again, just spitballing, but I think you can CAP a massive convoy or two.

What he said.

His air force strength almost (and I did say almost) prevents you from using your naval advantage to be able to invade anywhere in the HI.

Instead of looking for new invasion sites, I would have bulldozed my way out of the current base you hold on Hokkiado with every last ground troop in my inventory heavy terrain and slow movement be damned.

His fighter strenght is moot against your superior ground troops.

Once Hokkiado is complete cleared you have only a strait to cross to be on Honshu.

If saved from heavy loss covering multiple more invasions, your DS would surely be able to cover the strait crossing.

Even if it was savaged in the process it will have done the job it needed to do in getting your LCUs to a place where nothing can stop them.

[Canoerebel]

Trying to bulldoze out of Wakkanai would have been the slowest and probably the most costly method. He would have terrain advantages and could feed troops in and out. The 2x terrain would limit the effectiveness of my bombers. His AA would make it even more problematic.

I found what I think was a weakness in his defenses - a way to maneuver around his MLR into more open terrain. That includes clear terrain at Bihoro.

I guarantee this. Had I chosen to advance overland, some fine players would have protested, "Why didn't you use your mobility?" They'd have been right.

[BillBrown]

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[Canoerebel]

Bihoro's rail cannot be severed by sea - there is an interior line. That means Erik could rail in 200,000 men, if he wanted to and was prepared to do so.

Why get mired down in a 1:1 stalemate near Wakkanai? Why not suddenly lift off those troops, leave 90k enemy units in the jungle marooned for a week or two or three, and use mobility to go around the enemy flank, where a (supposed) weakness was located and confirmed?

Bear in mind this plan came into existence about 40 days ago, with prep following. At that point, the air war wasn't nearly as menacing. It's only been in the last few days that things have really spiralled out of control. But by then, I had already passed the point of commitment, as far as I was concerned.

A final point - you know I'm not playing to please the peanut gallery. I hope the PG enjoys the show, but whether elements or the whole "agree" isn't important. Of course, there are certain players of experience and ability whose approval or disapproval would register.

[HansBolter]

Not here to be pleased by your accepting what I offer.

Simply throwing out a stream of thought.

I understand and appreciate your reasoning, but I do think you are overestimating the impact of 2X terrain at this point.

[Canoerebel]

I don't think I am. Remember, I've been engaged in massive land battles in Burma for months. I've had the advantage of air power there but haven't been able to break through. Terrain and AA and forts and the quality of his units have results in stalemates.

Certainly there are a number of you gents that know the game far better than I do, and who probably wouldn't be caught in this situation. The reverse side of that is that there are 12,000 points of information that go into major decisions, and I can't give you all of them. So, quite often, peanut gallery may offer suggestions or solutions that are impracticable or disadvantageous.

[BillBrown]

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[Bullwinkle58]

FWIW, and I haven't studied the maps, I think mobility at this date is on balance better than the steamroll. Time is a factor, but also device pools.

In the air it's tough to beat the fighters the IJA can put up, in any era. Just a numbers game. It's been a long, long time since I tried a strat bombing campaign--and that was an AI game--but I think you could do some good work at night in Manpower, no matter the losses. You've been mostly point-bombing assets. Manpower lets you get above all but the heaviest AA. I don't think NOT strat bombing is the way to go, even if it cost you all your B-29s. You'll be getting a lot of B-17s in a few months. And anything you can do to put pressure on his fighter pools is to the good. The Allies may not get enough fighters, but he can't stop them being delivered.

[Canoerebel]

Apparently my comment came across as negative towards Bill and Hans. Saying that I don't play to please the peanut gallery isn't negative towards the gallery. To play that way would be impossible, because nearly always the PG is split into two camps, a phenomenon I noticed many years ago, starting with my games and Greyjoy's game vs. Rader. People see things different ways. They especially tend to see things differently when a player (me, here) encounters challenges or setbacks. It's human nature to say, "I'd have done it differently" or "Why didn't you do x, y, z?"

[Canoerebel]

2/8/45

Kushioro: You know that saying that no plan survives contact with the enemy? I've just seen the combat report for D-Day Kushiro. The plan survived contact with the enemy.

As best I can tell, D-Day went about perfectly. I probably won't get the turn file from Erik until tomorrow, so I'll just post a few highlights and one graphic:

1. Allied TFs encountered subs, SSX, and riff-raff of all kinds, but no real combat ships. Damage to the invasion fleet was minimal, while many subs (and other stuff) were damaged or sunk.

2. The invasion fleet arrived at Kushiro in good order and unloaded. There were some disablements (prep issues) and modest damage from shore guns, but overall a superb landing.

3. Enemy air sortied in modest numbers and got chewed on more than doing the chewing. A few APA took bomb hits, but the air war went my way today.

4. The combat report doesn't reveal fast transport landings, but I'm hoping a number of units were deposited at both non-base hexes. These units should include armor that will help me open hexsides and (hopefully) take control of the surrounding hexes, so that Erik has difficulty reinforcing.

5. Allied 2EB and 4EB targeted Bihoro airfield (with modest success) and ground troops (primarily to slow the units bound for the interior hex). BB Queen Elizabeth bombardment TF also struck, doing no damage to the airfield (what the hey?) but hopefully flipping Erik's ground troops into combat mode.

6. I think Erik expected the landing to take place at Bihoro.

7. Slow BB bombardment of Kushiro went very well. Damage to the airfield should be extensive.

8. Look at the combat report. Note the comparative AVs. Note what kinds of units are not included in the enemy garrison.

[Canoerebel]

I'll post extensively tomorrow, but I should have added this: I realize that a good start doesn't guarantee a good finish.

[HansBolter]

Didn't mean to come across harshly in my response, it's just my blunt nature.
Would have been better to state that I'm not displeased by your not accepting advice.

What I offer is less advice than simply musings on what might work.

Bill hit on a good point. By pulling back put of the woods in front on W, you signaled your intent not to drive further from that point. This allowed the Japanese to see the pressure was off there. If you had maintained the pressure there he would not be able to pull the troops headed there away to react to your new invasion.

Kind of a Hold em by the nose.......

[Canoerebel]

It didn't happen that way. From the time the units began withdrawing until their left port aboard assault ships, just five or six days transpired. One day after that, they landed at Kushiro. Meanwhile, Erik's army of 90k remains mired in that woods hex. My guys left them far behind, where they'll play no role for weeks.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Trying to bulldoze out of Wakkanai would have been the slowest and probably the most costly method. He would have terrain advantages and could feed troops in and out. The 2x terrain would limit the effectiveness of my bombers. His AA would make it even more problematic.

I found what I think was a weakness in his defenses - a way to maneuver around his MLR into more open terrain. That includes clear terrain at Bihoro.

I guarantee this. Had I chosen to advance overland, some fine players would have protested, "Why didn't you use your mobility?" They'd have been right.

I'd have bulldozed through. It would've worked, and I don't think it would have been delayed as much as you think it might have been. I'm talking about 10K+ USA AV here; a megastack plus 1K+ still at Wakkanai just in case he got cheeky. But I'm a "big hammer" guy on the ground.

I'm a bit more heartless in my use of units than most folks. Putting such a stack ashore would've cost me more ships and more planes. Mobility is only an asset insofar as you can use it. Yes, you can use it to land at Kushiro and get behind him - but look at the extra time it's taken you to prepare for it. It may cost you fewer ships or planes compared to what I would have done, maybe.

If he'd railed in 200,000 troops - well, that's basically all of his army and he'd still lose to yours (OK, maybe you'd have to bring in some more). He'd also have to keep bringing in tens or hundreds of thousands in supply - more than could be supported by Hakodate (and Muroran) alone. I'd view such a proposition as a strategic victory for the Allies. Fighting against 300K troops might take 3 or 4 months, but it would be 3 or 4 highly costly months for Japan. Even if he has 3M supplies in Japan, he couldn't afford the total cost of doing something like that.

I'm with Hans on the x2 terrain. It's helpful, but not that great.

On the other other hand, it also appears that I've misunderestimated ([:'(]) where all of your LCUs are in regards to the entire map.

[BBfanboy]

One thing not mentioned yet - unlike many players, obvert seems to be as brilliant as they come at land warfare. He can do sieges and mobile warfare. He uses terrain and road/rail networks to great advantage. He manages the mix to suit the mission, and he puts good leaders where they are needed. He may not have tanks at Kushiro, but I bet he has them on Hokkaido as a mobile reserve. No matter what Dan does, he will not get the rest of Hokkaido cheaply!