Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Cribtop]

No worries, Dan!

It was both Rangoon and a drive into the PI, with an eye to using the PI to cut off the DEI and basing B-29s in China to bomb the Home Islands, thus achieving the two "Q-Ball theory" war aims of the Allies in one relatively narrow two prong front.

[Canoerebel]

If I'm still fighting this war when the B-29s arrive I will be shocked.

It's possible that Steve can put up a very strong defense since he has a much smaller perimeter than normal, but I don't think that's what's going to happen.  With the tremendous attrition to Japanese capital ships, and with the probability that Japan is going to experience severe fuel problems in 1943, I think there will be a capitulation at some point during the year.  Another major Allied victory at sea - especially if it involves the KB - might be the tipping point.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/11/42
 
[Sumatra:  An Assie brigade and a USA tank unit are pushing back the demoralized little remnants of the Japanese force that had been trying to lift the siege at Padang.  In tomorrow's attack, I think the Japanese will be pushed back to the hex east of Sibolga.  Steve has turned his airforce to hit this Allied force, which tells me Sibolga garrison is weak.  Then we got SigInt today that an IJA regiment is aboard a Maru bound for Tadjasomething, th eport north of Sibolga.

There are two "Tadjasomethings" - Tandjoengpinang [the island south of Singers] and Tandoengbalai, the base on the NE coast of Sumatra. Are you sure which one the SIGINT refers to?

[Canoerebel]

12/12/42
 
Java Sea Rim:  Two IJ subs on minelaying missions to Singkawang run afoul of the Allied minefield, suffering serious damage.  Avengers out of this base damage four xAK and a PB near Groet Natoena (not sure what those ships are doing so close the Allied airfields without protection).  Lots of IJ subs near Billiton.  Allied bombers hit Kuching in large numbers.  And the mock Allied invasion force that will feint at Kuching will near Singkawang tomorrow.  Steve seems focused here.
 
Bay of Bengal Rim:  And yet, enemy airfields at bases on the Bay of Bengal suddenly brim with aircraft - Sabang, Moulmein and Rangoon.  Does Steve see something coming?  I don't think so, but I'm glad that the Allies aren't exposing anything big yet.  The fast transport TF will depart Port Blair tonight and make the run to vacant Victoria Point - it might deliver the troops tomorrow.  If the Allies can take VP on the quick and easy, then the enemy airfields can be neutralized (VP is a level four airfield and the Allies can bring in plenty of aviation support to handle local CAP).  If Steve thwards the "quicky and easy" stab at VP, the main invasion transports can probably make the beaches in four days with cover provided by the carriers.  Allied 1:1 at Moulmein fails to take the very weakly defended base.  Allied 1:2 at Rangoon shows the base very weakly defended.  If Steve wants to hold the base, he has to reinforce - but should VP fall to the Allies, will he want to defend at Rangoon?

[Miller]

Do you hold Pegu? If so his troops at Rangoon are toast..........

[Canoerebel]

12/13/42
 
Java Sea Rim:  Japanese patrols catch sight of the mock invasion force nearing Singkawang and bound for the Kuching vicinity.  This is good, assuming Steve draws the proper conclusion (that the Allies are about to invade Kuching).  Royal Sovereign bombarded the "target" hex, followed by a variety of 2EB and 4EB.  A great deal of IJ submarine activity around Billiton, but to this point Allied ASW (sea and air) and the presence of escorts in each TF has prevented the subs from getting in any good licks.  Still no IJ attack at Singkep, where the AV is IJ 431, Allies 261.  Forts there went to three today.

Bay of Bengal/Andaman Sea Rim:  The Allies fast transport TF bound for (still) vacant Victoria Point ended up a hex short and amidst several IJ TFs that I think are moving to and from Rangoon.  Steve got a good look at the APDs (9/9 detection), so who knows what will happen tomorrow.  I've set the TF at "direct/absolute", so I'll try to squeeze it in.  The carriers will take station just off the southern tip of Andaman Island, with the big invasion TFs a few hexes behind.  If the fast transport invasion fails, the bigger TFs are about three days out.  If it looks like there are some juicy IJ TFs hung up around Rangoon, the Allied carriers may block their retreat (I don't generally reveal the presence of my carriers, but it may be worth doing here).

Burma:  In answer to Miller, the Allies do hold Pegu, with reinforcements coming in from Upper Burma.  These units will be divided between moving on Rangoon and Moulmein.  Burma really becomes largely irrelevant if Victoria Point falls, but taking it even more quickly and by force is worthwhile too.  If nothing else, Burma is one of those places where losing a campaign just really works on the psyche.

NoPac:  Quiet, except Fairbanks forts just went to level three.  [:)]

SWPac:  Still very quiet.  More TFs carrying engineers to Boela, engineers and some fighting troops to Morotai, and engineers to Taberfane are enroute from Oz.  No signs of detection.

[BBfanboy]

[Capt. Harlock]

Steve got a good look at the APDs (9/9 detection), so who knows what will happen tomorrow. I've set the TF at "direct/absolute", so I'll try to squeeze it in. The carriers will take station just off the southern tip of Andaman Island, with the big invasion TFs a few hexes behind. If the fast transport invasion fails, the bigger TFs are about three days out. If it looks like there are some juicy IJ TFs hung up around Rangoon, the Allied carriers may block their retreat (I don't generally reveal the presence of my carriers, but it may be worth doing here).

You won't hear me complaining about additional carnage -- time for the flyboys to earn their pay!

[Canoerebel]

12/14/42
 
Victoria Point:  The Indian battalion comes ashore unmolested and finds the hex undefended.  VP and it's level four airfield should fall tomorrow.  The Allies will  bring in base force personel from Port Blair via air transport.  Steve may try to defend the base by doing the same, but I don't think he will (or, if he does, I don't think it will succeed).  In two days, the Allies should be able to put up a decent CAP from this base.  That, plus protection afforded by carrier aircraft, should allow the Allies to bring in the rest of the invasion force without too much risk.  The Allies will post the carriers between Port Blair and VP tomorrow, both to take position to guard the transports and to sever the IJ sea lanes to Rangoon, thus isolated some shipping currently at that base.
 
Up the Coast:  The Allies continue probing attacks at Rangoon (no chance there until significant reinforcements arrive) and Moulmein (the enemy is reinforcing by air, but the Allies dropped forts to one and nearly took the base; a Chinese division is on the way from Pegu - ETA six days).
 
Borneo:  The mock Allied invasion TF took station one hex west of Kuching, drawing a large IJN combat TF (Hiei, Nisshin, and Kinugasa) to that base.  A PT-boat TF sparred with the enemy to no effect.  Tomorrow, the CA Hawkins TF will visit Kuching - it will be outgunned, but any damage whatsoever to IJ capital ships at this point is a victory since Japan has few left.  BB Valiant TF will be available day after tomorrow.  The day after that a TF led by CA Pensacola will be present.
 
NoPac:  Sharp fighter action over Paramushiro decidely in favor of the Allies.
 
SWPac:  Seabees coming ashore at Taberfane (undetected).  TFs bringing the first garrison troops to Morotai and Sorong are at sea and perhaps a week to nine days away.

[Canoerebel]

The invasion of Victoria Point.

[Canoerebel]

Where the war is being won and lost, which has been the case since December 10, 1941....

[Canoerebel]

Right now the eastern DEI seems wide open. We haven't seen any indication of Japanese patrols, subs or ships. None of the Allied TFs visiting Taberfane, Saumlaki or Boela have been detected.

We hope that this state of affairs will continue as Allied troops move to Sorong and Morotai. I think there's a good chance.

At some point, though, Steve will become aware of what's going on. The Allied garrisons aren't particularly strong, so he should be able to swiftly mount counterinvasions that could readily reclaim the lightly defended bases. After all, Japan will have a big advantage in airfields and should be able to control the seas.

However, it is likely that the sudden discovery of a bunch of Allied "nests" right in his heartland will give Steve a heart attack. The Allies might be able to take advantage of the resulting flurry of activity, either here or elsewhere.

And there's a chance the "non-detection" could drag out for weeks or even months, giving the Allies time to strengthen their lodgements.

[Justus2]

Hard to believe he has nothing at Ambon, what is your detection level like there? Or have you been avoinding recon, to not tip him off? Kind of interesting to think you have a whole brigade on the other side of the island, though, cant wait to see the "meet the new neighbors" welcoming party!

[Canoerebel]

12/15/42
 
Victoria Point:  This undefended base falls to the Allies.  Huzzah!  The Allies will bring in some Brit troops via fast transport and, more immediately, some air support via air transport.  Two RAF figher squadrons move in to provide local CAP, though supply will be a problem.
 
Follow Up:  Despite this good news, I was disconcerted when a medium sized Nettie raid escorted by about 19 Zeros sortied against my three APD TF at Port Blair.  The raid was opposed by 50+ Allied fighters, but still managed to score on hit on an APD, which promptly sank.  Steve has hundreds of aircraft at Rangoon and more than 100 at Sabang, so I feel a bit like I'm sticking my head in a noose.  For a turn or two, the Allied carriers will hang back just to the west of Port Blair while I see how things develop.
 
Air Wars:  On the day, the Japanese suffered about 7:1 losses in the air, mainly in the fighting over Port Blair and over Paramushiro Jima.

[Canoerebel]

12/16/42
 
Victoria Point:  Things are heating up a bit.  Japan has landed by fast transport a force of undetected size and strength.  It will not take much to overcome the Allied garrison of 23 AV low on supply.  On the other hand, the terrain is good and the Allies will have some advantage in preparation.  The Allies have help on the way, but whether it will be able to force it's way into port successfully remains to be seen - a small TF carrying plenty of supply and a small Burma Army unit is just a couple of hexes away; a two-APD fast transport TF carrying part of a UK brigade should arrive tonight.  But Japan may have combat ships present and all the Allies can counter with is a single Dutch DD.  The Allies will also bring in part of the Brit brigade by air transport.  The stakes are higher than the forces committed, both because V.P. is an important base and because the Allies have two RAF fighter squadrons hung up here - I can't move them due to lack of supply - no bases within range.  I can't afford to lose fighters!

Port Blair:  Once again, IJ Nells sortied at long range, escorted by Zeroes, and managed to damage a transport at Port Blair.  This despite much larger fighter numbers for the Allies - mainly carrier aircraft.  It makes me disinclined to push any further.  VP is an important objective, but not that important.

SWPac:  And the fact that the Allies are making good progress here, while Japan seems focused on the western DEI and Malaya, helps soften the feeling that the Allies need to force the situation in Malaya.  Darwin airfield goes to five; Merauke to two (these might tip off Steve if he's paying attention, but I don't think he is).  Lots of scattered transport TFs enroute to Boela, Sorong and Morotai.  By Christmas, the Allies will have a chain of pretty nasty bases in the eastern DEI unless Steve wakes up.  (Nasty not because of size or strength, but due to location and the possibility that the Allies might be able to hold them until strong enough to withstand a determine counter assault).

[Capt. Harlock]

Japan has landed by fast transport a force of undetected size and strength. It will not take much to overcome the Allied garrison of 23 AV low on supply.

A faster reaction than usual. Maybe a *very* extended hangover has finally worn off. [:D]

[Canoerebel]

I suspect this fast transport TF was bound for Moulmein from Singapore, so it was easy for Steve to divert it to Victoria Point.  Just a guess.

[JeffroK]

Make him fight, he hasnt proven very good at it yet!

Have you any air transports which can get to Pt Blair and fly in supply or troops (Is it within range??)

[princep01]

I half agree with JeffK. VP was a reach. You knew it before you landed. If you feel you have a good chance (not a chance, but a real good one) to defend it and use it as the springboard you intended, then stay and fight. If, based on your experiences to date in the VP area and with your opponent, you fee you are going to be dragged into a stalemate/battle of attrition, I'd say pull out now. He will certainly strongly garrison the area now and that is a garrison you don't have to fight in the DEI.

On balance, I'd probably leave given the reaction to date and the fact that is fairly easy for him to reinforce. The mere fact that you took it probably scared the bejabbers out of him. You have swung the Eye of Mordor from the DEI to VP. That is victory enough.

[witpqs]

No don't pull out! As you said you don't want to lose two fighter squadrons. If you have any surface groups within striking distance for a high-speed run then a land bombardment would be helpful.