Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

2/8/45

Kushiro D-Day: Auto-bombardment by enemy units is counterproductive, as usual. Enemy AVs drop during the attack, enough to give me some hope for the coming battle. The roster of Allied units shown in the box is only partial. There are many more units present. The box aint big enough to show them all.

[Canoerebel]

2/8/45

Kushiro D-Day: Just before that ground combat, Allied BB TF performed well in bombarding Kushiro.

The Allied TF remained in hex with a big replenishment (AE) TF. I know it can replenish, but it will use 1000 ops points to do so. I don't know, therefore, whether the TF can bombard again or even move out of the hex to join DS (if I elect to seek safety).

[Canoerebel]

2/8/45

Kushiro D-Day: The lay of the land at day's end.

It was really a spectacular day for the Allies - not decisive, no awesome victory, but seeing this massive undertaking unfold properly.

[Canoerebel]

2/8/45

Kushiro D-Day: Every Allied unit came ashore in terrific shape. General deliberate attack tomorrow, with paratroops to come in from Wakkanai and Toyohara.

The enemy has two divisions and other stuff totaling about 1700 AV. They'll have 2x terrain and good forts (6?). The Allies may have a prep advantage and should have a huge firepower advantage - lots of armor and arty, the Japanese don't have any.

[Canoerebel]

A complex day to understand, a complex day tomorrow to plan for, and 12,000 points of information to take into consideration. Some decisions are easy, some are hard.

1. The Allied Army is in such good condition that it will attack tomorrow.
2. The Navy will remain close by, to guard against surface raiders and to (hopefully) deal with the enemy air forces. But where to position DS is a real booger bear. After a lot of thought, I've narrowed it to two possibilities, but even those are complex.
3. As noted above, the bombardment TF at Kushiro can replenish, but I don't know if it then has enough ops points to bombard or to join DS for security. I don't know what I'm going to do about that.
4. There are so many key targets for the Allied air force: (1) suppressing enemy airfields, especially Bihoro, Kushiro, Kunashiri and Shikotan. The first is probably the most important. (2) targeting enemy ground units to kick them from Move mode to Combat mode, slowing their advances into the key non-base hexes. (3) Sweeping enemy fighters over Allied units in those non-base hexes, and posting my own LRCAP there to deal with enemy bombers. There are a dozen high-priority missions, but I can probably only afford to focus on four to six.
5. I've already made the decision to pour in reinforcements. A goodly part of 5th Marine Div. came ashore perfectly in the non-base hex NE of Kushiro, so why not "flood the zone" with everything I have? Keeping Erik from controling those non-base hexes may be the key to victory here.

[Canoerebel]

2/8/45

Kushiro D-Day: If 5th Marine Div. can land in none-base hex with no disablements and minimal fatigue and disruption, why bother landing additional troops at Kushiro?

[Capt. Harlock]

Just before that ground combat, Allied BB TF performed well in bombarding Kushiro.

Apparently larger numbers of 14-inch do better than lesser numbers of 15-inch.

[HansBolter]

I have found when sitting in a bombardment hex with the AE replenishment TF that bombardments every day are not viable unless you are rotating multiple TFs.
Even then, the ops point limits can prevent the AE TF from being able to fully replenish multiple TF on a daily basis.

A single bombardment TF has to spend the next turn replenishing and on the turn after can bombard again.

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Hans, thanks very much for posting that info. Not knowing for certain had tied me I knots. I didn't have a good feel for how to plan that part of the turn, which is a key part. Now I know.

[Canoerebel]

I may be spending more time on this turn than any I've ever had. The turn is important, but it's not necessarily the most important ever. It's just that there are massive numbers of variables. If I make a call it requires 10,000 clicks. If I change my mind....

I'm playing with a hypothesis - not relying upon it but studying it. In most recent advances by Death Star, strike aircraft have been at limited range. In this instance, they're set to zero (the chance of an overwhelming CAP-trap debacle are far greater than a carrier battle). DS hasn't reacted when I've limited strike range, making me wonder if carriers won't react if doing so still won't bring them within range of launching a strike. But it seems to much to expect that the designers would have thought that deeply into strike mechanics, so I'm a bit skeptical. And I'm not sure there's been a time when a reaction has been possible. Right now, and enemy carrier TF is 10 hexes from DS, so Erik might be trying to coax one.

I've been playing under the assumption that DS can (and probably will have to) withstand at least one all-out, mega air strike. In the current turn, Erik lost 400 aircraft (I lost 200), which might've dampened his enthusiasm. But he may be trying for that reaction, hoping for an overwhelming attack. I think I'm going to keep DS in place, or move it one hex (to just SW of Kushiro) to allow more supplies to unload. Pucker time.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Hans, thanks very much for posting that info. Not knowing for certain had tied me I knots. I didn't have a good feel for how to plan that part of the turn, which is a key part. Now I know.

Beware glitches. Twice I have had a bombardment TF ignore the Remain on Station order and head for their home port only to have to reel them back in the next turn.

Fortunately I am in a relatively threat free environment at Hong Kong. Glitches like that could prove costly for you in this environment.

[Canoerebel]

2/8/45

Whence Death Star on D-Day+1: Two days into planning the next turn, and I still haven't made one key decision. I'm leaning towards leaving DS in place.

[dave sindel]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I may be spending more time on this turn than any I've ever had. The turn is important, but it's not necessarily the most important ever. It's just that there are massive numbers of variables. If I make a call it requires 10,000 clicks. If I change my mind....

I'm playing with a hypothesis - not relying upon it but studying it. In most recent advances by Death Star, strike aircraft have been at limited range. In this instance, they're set to zero (the chance of an overwhelming CAP-trap debacle are far greater than a carrier battle). DS hasn't reacted when I've limited strike range, making me wonder if carriers won't react if doing so still won't bring them within range of launching a strike. But it seems to much to expect that the designers would have thought that deeply into strike mechanics, so I'm a bit skeptical. And I'm not sure there's been a time when a reaction has been possible. Right now, and enemy carrier TF is 10 hexes from DS, so Erik might be trying to coax one.

I've been playing under the assumption that DS can (and probably will have to) withstand at least one all-out, mega air strike. In the current turn, Erik lost 400 aircraft (I lost 200), which might've dampened his enthusiasm. But he may be trying for that reaction, hoping for an overwhelming attack. I think I'm going to keep DS in place, or move it one hex (to just SW of Kushiro) to allow more supplies to unload. Pucker time.

I am most interested in how your hypothesis on carrier reaction works out. In my 2 ongoing PBEM contests, carrier reactions in both games have caused me an extensive amount of trouble...

[Canoerebel]

I consider it a weak hypothesis (surely the developers didn't think this deeply into possible reaction scenarios), but it's worth testing.

[RangerJoe]

Not too weak a hypothesis if you think of Spruance at the Marianas. Mitchener who commanded the fast carriers wanted to move during the night and strike in the a.m. but Spruance said no so the landings could be protected. A little bit different than what happened later at Leyte Gulf.

A good use for your paratroopers to reinforce. Have you considered using the paratroopers en masse in other areas to take under garrisoned bases so you can avoid the CD guns? You could potentially move rather rapidly that way and thus stretch out the defenders there.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

…. Have you considered using the paratroopers en masse in other areas to take under garrisoned bases so you can avoid the CD guns? You could potentially move rather rapidly that way and thus stretch out the defenders there.

No such thing as an under-garrisoned base. This is Obvert on the defense! He has everything covered hugely.

[Canoerebel]

2/9/45

Kushiro D+1: A key turn opens with a strong bombardment by a relatively modest TF.

The AE TF in the hex used up all 1000 ops point auto-re-arming mostly DDs, which is helpful. The chances of enemy surface engagement are small but still there.

This is a key turn. My forces basically remain static a second day, in proximity to so many big enemy airfields. I'm puckering. Tomorrow my forces will be moving in ways probably unpredictable to Erik, so if he's going to strike, this is the day to do it.

[Canoerebel]

2/9/45

Kushiro D+1: To my surprise and relief, Erik doesn't order all-out aerial attacks against Allied shipping. His main efforts are to sweep the non-base hex where I've landed a bunch of armor and infantry (between Kushiro and Bihoro). I have no CAP up, so no combat. He also posts heavy LRCAP over Bihoro. My sweepers get the best of his CAP. This is the heaviest of a series of bombing raids meant to suppress the airfield and slow ground movement.

[Canoerebel]

2/9/45

Kushiro D-Day+1: Hard, costly fighting during the opening Allied attack. At first blush, the attack seems to have been disappointing. But analyzing all the available data, I think things went fairly well. I think this is doable - IF I can prevent Erik from reinforcing. That's a big'n - a big if.

[Canoerebel]

2/9/45

Kushiro D+1: A rollicking, confusing, challenging, fun battle unfolding. Three-dimensional chess on steroids.