GW Counterfactual Take 3.

[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #3. PTO.

Naval Search. Bismarck Sea.
(1) [fine] IJN 1 CV, 2 BB TF[2] vs unescorted CW CP[0] & USN patrolling BB[4].
(2) IJN BB Fuso[2] searches, no air in position to react.
(3) Search(G/W=AX/AL): IJN=6, USN=1 -> only USN BB[4] finds with 6 SPs.
(4) At this point in the war it's about attricting the IJN, so the lone USN BB Impero with stand and use 4 SPs to fight a surface action.
(5) The lone USN BB use their remaining 2 SPs to increase IJN risk from D, 2A to 2D, A.
(6) USN Risk (2D,A) RES: (1) D vs USN BB Impero(8-5-2)=6 -> A.
(7) IJN Risk (2D, A) RES: (1) D vs BB Nagato(7-4-3)=5 -> A, (2) D vs BB Fuso (7-4-3)=6 -> A, (3) A vs CV Junyo(1-4-8) -> A.
(8) Japan was actually hoping that 1 of their BB got damaged in order to take the A risk too so that the CV Junyo could remain and continue searching for the lone CW CP. Crew of the USN BB Impero and escorting destroyers did their job and drove off the IJN task force which now must avoid intercept returning to the Home Islands (Fukuoka); otherwise they couldn't be oiled.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #3. PTO.

RTB Intercept. Bismarck Sea -> China Sea.
(1) [storm] USN intercepts aborted IJN TF from Bismarck Sea.
(2) Allies do NOT commit subs. Intercept D10(3)=6 -> failed, IJN TF slips through to Fukuoka.

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Naval Search. Coral Sea.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #3. PTO.

Naval Search. South China Sea.
(1) [fine] IJN TF[3] vs USN TF[4], escorted CPs[0]. IJN BB Kongo[3] searches.
(2) Air reactions -> [0] USN PBM-1 (Taihoku), P-39 Lightning (Hanoi).
(3) Air reactions -> [2] AUS Mosquito (Borneo), USAAFP-40C (Bangkok).
(4) Allies do NOT commit subs.
(5) Search(G/P=AX/AL): IJN=9, USN/AUS=1 -> AL[4][2][0] find with 9 SPs.
(6) It's going to be a carrier battle.
(7) Allies elect to fight a naval air. USN use 2 SPs to decrease IJN AA for -2 to -3.
(8) [Naval RD 1] Air-to-Air RD1(-3 AX/+2 AL): USN=12 -> AC -> B5N2 (Kate). IJN=10 -> AC -> SBD-2 cleared.
(9) Air-to-Air RD2(-3 AX/+2 AL): USN=5 -> AX -> A6M2 (Zero) shot down (PIL survives). IJN=8 -> AC -> PBM-1 Mariner clears. IJN elects to fly the B5N2 Kate as Kamikaze.
(10) USN AA(-1/6)=6,3,10,2,2,6 -> 2 reduces 4 bombs to 2, which are then doubled (Kamikaze) to 4.
(11) IJN AA(-1/4)=8,5,3,10 -> 3, reduces allied bombs 10 to 7.
(12) USN use 4 of 7 remaining SPs to reduce risk from 2D, 3A to D and will use the remaining 3 SPs to place D.
(13) USN Risk (D) RES: D (USN=3 SPs) vs RN CA Cornwall[0](2-5-6) =10 -> A.
(14) Cornwall did a fantastic job vs the IJN Kamikazes to avoid major damage!
(15) IJN Risk (X,D,A) RES: (1) X (USN) vs BB Kirshima(6-5-4)=3 -> sunk, (2) D (IJN) vs CV Shokaku(2-6-6)=5 -> D, (3) A (USN) vs BB Kongo (6-5-4)=3 -> A.
(16) Excellent accuracy by USN CAGs, maybe poor damage control by the IJN or combination of both. IJN with an undamaged & damaged CV, both without an air group, decides to abort.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #3. PTO.

Intercept. RTB (aborts) South China Sea -> China Sea.
(1) [storm] Aborted BB Kongo RTBs through the China Sea.
(2) USN intercepts, does not commits subs, D10(3)=9 -> failed, BB continues to Fukuoka.
(3) [storm] 2 aborted IJN CVs (1 damaged) RTB through the China Sea.
(4) USN intercepts, do not commits subs, D10(3)=3 -> succeeds.
(5) IJN D10=8 -> USN[4] finds 9 SPs.
(6) USN use 4 SPs to decrease allied risk from D to none, 2 SPs to increase IJN risk from X, 2A to X,D,2A and will use remaining 3 SPs to place X on the undamaged CV.
(7) IJN Risk (X,D,2A) RES: (1) X(USN=3 SPs) vs CV Kaga(3-5-5)=8 -> damaged, (2) D vs (D) CV Kaga(3-5-6)=7 & A, (3-4) 2A vs (D) CV Shokaku & A.
(8) USN will continue the combat in order to get a shot at the IJN supply CP[0] put out from Fukukoa during naval movement.

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Naval Combat. China Sea. Round 2.
(9) [storm] Allies do commit subs vs lone IJN CP[0].
(10) Search(R/W=AL/AX): USN=1, IJN=9 -> there goes another IJN supply convoy knocking the IJN Mar div, MIL army & tank div adjacent to Shanghai out of supply now and for the rest of the turn at a minimum.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #3. PTO.

HQ Reorg.
(1) Yamamoto HQ-I (4) reorgs Japan's remaining battlefleet, CV Junyo, BB Kongo, BB Fuso, BB Nagato (except CVLs w/no air group).

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #3.

Turkey. Middle East. End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #3.

Eastern Front. End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #3.

Balkans. Italy. End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #3.

Western Front. End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #5. Impulse #236.

Weather & Actions.
(1) Same weather roll, same weather.
(2) Looking at weather or not the USA and/or the USSR will take a land with O-chit or just a land.
(3) USSR Land w/O-chit paired with Zhukov.
(4) USA Land w/O-chit paired with Bradley.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #5. Naval Search.

Baltic Sea.
(1) [storm] Free France took the combine in order to move Amph Gp to the Baltic and search for the US who took a land.
(2) Search(O/W=AL/AX): USN=4, GER=7 -> no find.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #5. Asian Theater.

China. Formosa. End of Impulse.

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Manchuria. Korea. End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #5. Turkey. Middle East.

Soviet Ground Strike. Turkey 65,70.
(1) [Mtn clear, rain, unopposed] Tu-2(6/2=3) vs isolated XVII inf corps=6 (missed).

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End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #5. The Eastern Front.

Land Combat 1/3. Vitebsk, USSR.
(1) [storm] 4/4 attacking armies & 1/2 divs AF doubled by Zhukov.
(2) 87.5% PWIN, 71.5% PNL.
(3) LC(+12.5A) RES: FOR(WGO<500)=938 (n0), 2D10=11, LCR=12+0+11=23, fight on the money, Vitebsk captured, German (WP) VI inf corps, 1st cav div destroyed without loss or flip.

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Land Combat 2/3. USSR 45,54.
(4) [storm] 4/4 attacking armies & 1/2 divs AF doubled by Zhukov.
(5) 100% PWIN, 95% PNL (1st mot div at risk).
(6) LC(+16B) RES: No FOR, 2D10=13, LCR=16=13=29 -Z> IX SS panzer corps smashed without loss or flip.

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Land Combat 3/3. Ukraine 52.54.
(7) [storm] 62.2% PWIN, 42.2% N/L (2nd mot div).
(8) LC(+5.8B) RES: FOR(GPB<800)=303 (yes), 2D10=14, LCR=5+1+14=20 -> Soviets keep the shatter, which removes LXVI Mot corps & 6th Pz eng div way away from the Eastern Front even though they'll reappear next turn on the Western Front, which is the Western Allies problem.
(9) The Red Army lose the 2 mot div and see 3 of 6 surviving units flipped.

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HQ Reorg.
(10) Rokossovsky HQ-A reorgs 4th GD Inf Banner, 9th Gd Inf Banner armies.
(11) Yeremenko HQ-I reorgs 11th & 51st inf armies which flipped due to pushing into swamp (during storm).
(12) Zhukov HQ-A paired with O-chit. No Soviet unit in range (land or air) of Zhukov to reorg.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #5. The Eastern Front.

End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #5. Balkans. Italy.

End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #5. The Western Front.

Land Combat 1/3. France 54,30.
(1) [storm] 99.1% PWIN, 86.6% PNL (CAN mot div), 1 of 3 support US units (X inf) AF doubled by Bradley.
(2) LC(+13.143B) RES: FOR(GYW<143)=4 (yes), 2D10=11, LCR=13+1+11=25, Wehrmacht 88mm AT and 5th Banner mot divs eliminated without loss or flip and Paris isolated.

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Land Combat 2/3. Belgium 53,31.
(3) [storm] 4/4 US attacking corps & 1/2 US divs AF doubled by Bradley.
(4) 100% PWIN, 94% PNL(US 2nd arm div). LC(+15.5) RES: FOR(WGY<500)=383 (yes), 2D10=11, LCR=15+1+11=26, Wehrmacht XLII inf corps & 50 mm AT div destroyed without loss or flip and US armor pushes into Belgium to the outskirts of Brussels.

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Land Combat 3/3. Frederikshavn, Denmark.
(5) [storm] 79% PWN, 38% PNL (US XXVII mot corps).
(6) Bitter fighting to clear the critical port of Frederikshavn.
(7) LC(+5B) RES: No FOR, 2D10=9, LCR=5+9=14, bitter but good enough, US loses XXVII mot corps but destroys HUN I corps, clears & liberates Frederikshavn.

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Reorg.
(8) North Sea[2] USN TRS Gp 4245 reorgs US 4th inf div.
(9) North Sea[3] USN Amph Gps 4238, 4237, 4236 reorg (respectively) US XIV inf, VI mot corps, 1st armor div.
(10) Reims, France. Bradley HQ-A paired with O-chit. No US, CW or Free French unit in range (land or air) of Bradley to reorg.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #5. The Western Front.

End of Impulse.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #7. Impulse #237.

Weather & Actions.
(1) Donitz was pushing hard for a combine in order to send his U-boats out and (hopefully) do some damage to allied Atlantic convoy lines.
(2) However; OKH & OKW quelled that request quickly as Germany needs more than 6 land moves to address the gaps tore open in their lines on both the Eastern & Western fronts, not to mention in the Balkans.
(3) Also, how would taking a combine and sinking a few allied CPs help Germany hold on to their objective cities? OKH & OKW argue that it does NOT.
(4) Japan wanted to take a combine or naval for a second shot with their reorg battle fleet (3 BBs, 1 CV) in Fukuoka and 2 Sub Sqs still at sea in the Coral Sea.
(5) Similarly to German's decision, sinking a few USN convoys and/or ships might make Japan "feel better"; but, wouldn't advance the axis most significant cause and that is holding onto as many victory cities as possible.
(6) So, Japan passes in order to maximize the chance that the turn ends on this impulse given Germany MUST take a land.
(7) While the storms in the West and East have impeded the allies and grounded their airforces, they have also grounded the significantly regenerated Luftwaffe (see reinforcements at start of this turn)_.
(8) On a whole though, the storms have helped Germany, especially on the Eastern Front where the Soviets have been begging for snow and didn't get ANY last turn (Jan/Feb 1945) and none so far this turn (Mar/Apr 1945).
(9) So, another reason for Japan to pass and maximize turn end (20%), is to reduce the chance that the turn continues and the allies get favorable weather in the East and/or West.
(10) The Western Allies still have an invasion army at sea in the North Sea[4] and ready to go with plenty of shore bombardment if ever (or if) they get the chance (i.e., turn continues and weather).

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #7.

Turkey. Middle East. Army Groups A & B. End of Impulse.

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