Lambs to the slaughter (Lowpe (J) vs Jocke; BillBrown (A)) Finished

[Lowpe]

In about 2 months the Frank R will start production. There seems to be about 20 sentai that fly the R model. Most can be upgraded to the Ki94II past the R model. There will be some Frank A squadrons that don't upgrade.

There are something like 10 r&d factories that are working on the R model, most sized 30. I need to figure out how many of those facilities go to research the Ki94 or some other late war plane.

Of the standard planes the only one I need to r&d is the Randy 102b which quite a few lilly squadrons upgrade to.

My choices seem really limited to the Ki94, a kamikaze (but generally no squadrons arrive until 5/45 which is about 6 months of acceleration). All the other options aren't great because of the lack of squadrons capable of flying the late war planes.

[Lowpe]

Sept 14, 1943

Only one more Chinese base to go and all of China will be in the Empire.

[Lowpe]

I-9 ran into 9 destroyers and one CL, the Santa Fe. She goes down...a bitter blow since she had glens.

Anyhow, here they come! 9 DL on Seward and Kodiak.

[Lowpe]

A good day for reinforcements.

[Lowpe]

Trying a poor mans sweep near Kodiak. Almost every fighter on escort and only 12 Betties on strike, with 10 percent of them even on search. Interested to see how it works out.

[Lowpe]

Sept 15, 1943

Poor mans sweep. Works better with George and Frank. At 25K. Beats losing 60 Betties.[:)]

[Lowpe]

Target?

[Lokasenna]

Dutch Harbor and Umnak, with Cold Bay. He doesn't need Kodiak, except for points later. The only reason to move up here is to continue through the Aleutians ('ware, Kuriles and Hokkaido garrisons...) and Kodiak is tangential to that goal at best.

He didn't need to approach from the east, though. He was probably trying to bait out strikes, or let you see it. Or else he didn't think it through.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Dutch Harbor and Umnak, with Cold Bay. He doesn't need Kodiak, except for points later. The only reason to move up here is to continue through the Aleutians ('ware, Kuriles and Hokkaido garrisons...) and Kodiak is tangential to that goal at best.

He didn't need to approach from the east, though. He was probably trying to bait out strikes, or let you see it. Or else he didn't think it through.

Or a ploy to try and get me to move the KB here way out at the end of the Empire.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Dutch Harbor and Umnak, with Cold Bay. He doesn't need Kodiak, except for points later. The only reason to move up here is to continue through the Aleutians ('ware, Kuriles and Hokkaido garrisons...) and Kodiak is tangential to that goal at best.

He didn't need to approach from the east, though. He was probably trying to bait out strikes, or let you see it. Or else he didn't think it through.

Or a ploy to try and get me to move the KB here way out at the end of the Empire.

Well, right. But I can't think of why he'd have so many major ships there (and it looks like you aren't even seeing all of it) if it was a ploy. What was the unit ID on the fighters flying CAP? If I had to guess, I'd say that's 1 to 5 CVEs and at least 1 CVL. CV presence questionable. But look at all those "BB" being reported... when you see that many BB in the line, it almost always means it's BBs. At the least, it's CAs. At this date, that's a sizeable force.

If it's a ploy, it risks leaving his "real move" underdefended even if you did send KB all the way up here.

Hence, he's got to actually be doing something with this, as otherwise he risks two major movements (the ploy with a hefty commitment within it) for no gain if he has to cancel an underdefended major thrust along with an empty ploy that didn't work.

Also, Jocke doesn't do empty feints. Hell, I'm not sure he feints at all - he'll cancel an op if necessary, but I don't think he thinks explicitly in terms of baiting and feinting (even if the feint is a real op meant to accomplish something as gravy on top of the feint).

[witpqs]

Real Intel from NavSearch is always tough. I can't remember how many times the IJN was bearing down on me with like 35 carriers.

[Lowpe]

Oh, I think it is a serious operation, but I also think he hopes I move the KB there to give him free action in the Bismarck Archipelago areas.

I am putting the finishing touches on Midway, it is getting serious CD guns and more artillery. Wake is also getting finished off.

I hope he doesn't come thru Hokkaido...been there done that. I like the small scale fighting in the Solomons, and fighting thru the SRA/Mindanao/Luzon would be interesting.

Only one more re-spawned division to buy out and I will be able to use my PP for other things. 12 days about.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I hope he doesn't come thru Hokkaido...been there done that. I like the small scale fighting in the Solomons, and fighting thru the SRA/Mindanao/Luzon would be interesting.

I can think of no other reason why he would go for the Aleutians at this date when the Allies still have moderately scarce resources. It's either just busy work, in which case - why even do it now? There are more important things he could be doing with those ships, really... or it's part of a longer term Northern Strategy.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I hope he doesn't come thru Hokkaido...been there done that. I like the small scale fighting in the Solomons, and fighting thru the SRA/Mindanao/Luzon would be interesting.

I can think of no other reason why he would go for the Aleutians at this date when the Allies still have moderately scarce resources. It's either just busy work, in which case - why even do it now? There are more important things he could be doing with those ships, really... or it's part of a longer term Northern Strategy.

Insightful, as always. Thanks, Lok.[&o]

In looking at the turn, counting hexes, and thinking about the Allies hesitance to expose assets, I feel he is going for Kodiak. Least risk, good return. It will be bombarded tonight, as he is 7 hexes away, the invasion will start the following day. I don't think Jocke would go for the Aleutians without having Kodiak to protect his supply line.

It might be part of a larger strategy...but winter is on its way, forts are high in the Aleutians and the garrisons aren't weak.

If he goes for Kodiak, then Midway I think the Aleutians would follow then.

In this scenario 2 game the Hokkaido approach features all those lovely aircraft engines in Hokkaido that are absent in a scenario 1 game.

[Lowpe]

Here are the fighter squadrons providing CAP over the invasion fleets.

Interesting that he split a unit into thirds, I guess to give him more altitude bands?

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

... Interesting that he split a unit into thirds, I guess to give him more altitude bands? ...

That isn't the reason. All those units are flying at an altitude of 10k.

Possible reasons for splitting VMF-214 include:

1. Bypass the normal weekly airframe replacement limit.
2. Have more reserve airframes on board.
3. Get lucky and obtain better leaders without expending any PPs.
4. Try to speed up pilot recovery.
5. Use up all space within 5 unit per CV limit.

Of greater interest to you should be that he is employing a VRF unit.

Alfred

[PaxMondo]

VC(F)? What are those?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

... Interesting that he split a unit into thirds, I guess to give him more altitude bands? ...

That isn't the reason. All those units are flying at an altitude of 10k.

Possible reasons for splitting VMF-214 include:

1. Bypass the normal weekly airframe replacement limit.
2. Have more reserve airframes on board.
3. Get lucky and obtain better leaders without expending any PPs.
4. Try to speed up pilot recovery.
5. Use up all space within 5 unit per CV limit.

Of greater interest to you should be that he is employing a VRF unit.

Alfred

The three splinters were scrambled to different altitude bands even though their patrol was the same. I thought Jocke might be onto something there?[&:]

I thought VRF squadrons only used their replenishment feature on a replenishment TF? And if on a replenishment task force they could train but not fly active attack/defense missions?

Which led me to think it is not on a replenishment task force but an air combat task force perhaps because it has Hellcats (pdu off game).

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

VC(F)? What are those?

No clue.

Michael? Alfred? AFB?

[Alfred]

CAP scrambles to meet incoming assessed strike altitude.  The incoming altitude detection is not always 100% accurate so that even if the incoming strike is all at the same altitude, the CAP may assess some of the separate incoming raids to be at different altitudes.
 
The point about the VRF unit is as per your comment.  It is not stationed aboard a CVE operating within a Replenishment TF.  This leads to the following speculation.
 
1.  He has beefed up his fighter strength to the max with Marine and Replenishment units.
 
2.  The likelihood is very high that the CV TF/s are light on bombers.
 
3.  NB that no CAP was actually airborne, it was all scrambled.  This often suggests that the Allied player has a low CAP percentage set, often done by players who wish to maximise their escort numbers (take note of recent thread on maximising units with "all in" parameters).
 
4.  Overall my assessment is that he is operating the CVs as a CAP trap/primary focus on defending the beachhead.  He has not optimised his fleet for an airborne strike against your navy.  You should adjust your response accordingly.
 
(a) IJN surface fleets can be sortied without the major concern being enemy carrier aircraft
(b) NB the time to interception.  If you must launch aircraft against the mobile CAP trap consider flying just above the waves.  The higher the incoming altitude the earlier the warning provided by radar.  Come in at 1k and his warning time might blow out even further
(c) with no Replenishment TF, if you can rotate air units in/out, you may be able to attrite his air power
 
5.  VRF units do not have to be inside a Replenishment TF in order to provide replacement airframes.  They can do so from a base within range.
 
6.  I don't have the game opened now but IIRC the VC(F) unit is a standard Navy unit which operates off a carrier.
 
Alfred