End of Impulse.
(1) OKW allocated 1/1 rail, 1/6 land moves and 3/6 air moves (rebase) to Army Group South.
(2) 2/6 land moves and 0/6 air moves allocated to Army Group Center.
- 12-AX-Eastern-EOI.png (2.27 MiB) Viewed 451 times
GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Moderator: Shannon V. OKeets
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #12. The Eastern Front (Army Groups North, Center, South).
End of Impulse.
(1) OKW allocated 1/1 rail, 1/6 land moves and 3/6 air moves (rebase) to Army Group South.
(2) 2/6 land moves and 0/6 air moves allocated to Army Group Center.
End of Impulse.
(1) OKW allocated 1/1 rail, 1/6 land moves and 3/6 air moves (rebase) to Army Group South.
(2) 2/6 land moves and 0/6 air moves allocated to Army Group Center.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #12. The Western Front.
End of Impulse.
(1) OKW allocated 0/1 rail, 2/6 land moves & 3/6 air moves to the Western Front.
(2) Was limiting land moves to six worth sinking 6 CW CPs and aborting another 3?
(3) The only chance the answer is yes is if the turn ends and the axis move first.
(4) Axis keeping their figures cross that turn ends now (70%) and that they move first next turn (55.5%), or 70% x 55.5% = 38.9%.
End of Impulse.
(1) OKW allocated 0/1 rail, 2/6 land moves & 3/6 air moves to the Western Front.
(2) Was limiting land moves to six worth sinking 6 CW CPs and aborting another 3?
(3) The only chance the answer is yes is if the turn ends and the axis move first.
(4) Axis keeping their figures cross that turn ends now (70%) and that they move first next turn (55.5%), or 70% x 55.5% = 38.9%.
- 12-AX-Western-EOI.png (2.46 MiB) Viewed 450 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. Impulse #240.
Weather & Actions.
(1) (Axis #12) End of Turn Check (ends on 7 or less). D10 = 9 -> turn continues! -> Allied #15.
(2) Weather D10=1+2 = 3 -> snow in the arctic, north temperate (Western & Eastern fronts).
(3) Turn continuing and snow on the Eastern & Western fronts are not what Germany wanted! Adv=3, DRM=0.
(4) Preliminary Actions, subject to change after more detailed investigation.
(5) USSR, China - land.
(6) CW - combine.
(7) USA - land w/ O-chit (Clarke HQ-I).
(8) Revised. France - land (not combine).
Weather Map.
Actions.
Weather & Actions.
(1) (Axis #12) End of Turn Check (ends on 7 or less). D10 = 9 -> turn continues! -> Allied #15.
(2) Weather D10=1+2 = 3 -> snow in the arctic, north temperate (Western & Eastern fronts).
(3) Turn continuing and snow on the Eastern & Western fronts are not what Germany wanted! Adv=3, DRM=0.
(4) Preliminary Actions, subject to change after more detailed investigation.
(5) USSR, China - land.
(6) CW - combine.
(7) USA - land w/ O-chit (Clarke HQ-I).
(8) Revised. France - land (not combine).
Weather Map.
- 15-AL-Weather-Map.png (219.13 KiB) Viewed 449 times
- 15-AL-Weather-Actions.png (55.18 KiB) Viewed 445 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. Naval.
Port Strike. Kristiansand, Norway.
[clear, snow, unopposed]
(1) Swordfish CAG(4/2), Beaufighter N3(3/2).
(2) Surprise (AX/AL=Pi/P): GER=7, RN=7, no SPs.
(3) KM AA Fire(-1/6)=2,10,3,10,4,9 = 2 -> 7 RN bombs reduced to 5 then halved to 3.
(4) KM Risk(D,2A) RES: (a) D(RN) vs U-boat Flotilla 4834(3-6-7)=10 -> already aborted, so no effect, (b) A (KM) vs BB Bismack(7-5-2)=6 -> 1/2A, (c) A(RN) vs (1/2A) BB Bismarck & aborted.
Port Strike. Kristiansand, Norway.
[clear, snow, unopposed]
(1) Swordfish CAG(4/2), Beaufighter N3(3/2).
(2) Surprise (AX/AL=Pi/P): GER=7, RN=7, no SPs.
(3) KM AA Fire(-1/6)=2,10,3,10,4,9 = 2 -> 7 RN bombs reduced to 5 then halved to 3.
(4) KM Risk(D,2A) RES: (a) D(RN) vs U-boat Flotilla 4834(3-6-7)=10 -> already aborted, so no effect, (b) A (KM) vs BB Bismack(7-5-2)=6 -> 1/2A, (c) A(RN) vs (1/2A) BB Bismarck & aborted.
- 15-AL-Western-PSTK-AA-Kiristiansand-NOR.png (420.85 KiB) Viewed 433 times
- 15-AL-Western-PSTK-Kiristiansand-NOR.png (244.92 KiB) Viewed 433 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. Naval Search.
(1/3) Cape St. Vincent.
(1) [rain] RN, no search, no combat.
(2/3) Faeroes Gap.
(2) [rain] RN NM 1/2. 9 RN CPs. Liverpool -> Faeroes Gap[0].
(3) RN, no search.
(4) one German Sub Gp[2] elects to search.
(5) Air reaction. RN Swordfish N2 x 2 -> [0].
(6) Subs commit. Search(AX/AL=G/O): GER=9, RN/USN=10 -> neither find.
(1/3) Cape St. Vincent.
(1) [rain] RN, no search, no combat.
- 15-AL-BOA-CSV-NS-NC.png (223.31 KiB) Viewed 432 times
(2) [rain] RN NM 1/2. 9 RN CPs. Liverpool -> Faeroes Gap[0].
(3) RN, no search.
(4) one German Sub Gp[2] elects to search.
(5) Air reaction. RN Swordfish N2 x 2 -> [0].
(6) Subs commit. Search(AX/AL=G/O): GER=9, RN/USN=10 -> neither find.
- 15-AL-BOA-Faeroes-Gap-NS.png (198.12 KiB) Viewed 432 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. Naval Search.
(3/3) Baltic Sea.
(7) [rain] RN Naval Air. Sunderland N4. Copenhagen, Den -> Baltic[4].
(8) RN NM 2/2. Supply CP. Liverpool -> Baltic[0].
(9) Sunderland searches.
(10) No air reaction either side.
(11) Search(G/Y=AL/AX): RN/USN=2, KM=8, that should do it for the 5 unescorted KM CPs.
(12) RN/USN[4][3] find with 11 SPs, elect to fight a surface.
(13) All 5 KM CPs sunk without the USN having to use any surprise points.
(14) USN sinks 1 million gross metric tons of German shipping in the Baltic, almost equaling that sunk by Donitz's U-boats last impulse.
(3/3) Baltic Sea.
(7) [rain] RN Naval Air. Sunderland N4. Copenhagen, Den -> Baltic[4].
(8) RN NM 2/2. Supply CP. Liverpool -> Baltic[0].
(9) Sunderland searches.
(10) No air reaction either side.
(11) Search(G/Y=AL/AX): RN/USN=2, KM=8, that should do it for the 5 unescorted KM CPs.
(12) RN/USN[4][3] find with 11 SPs, elect to fight a surface.
(13) All 5 KM CPs sunk without the USN having to use any surprise points.
(14) USN sinks 1 million gross metric tons of German shipping in the Baltic, almost equaling that sunk by Donitz's U-boats last impulse.
- 15-AL-Western-Baltic-NC-1.png (308.1 KiB) Viewed 431 times
- 15-AL-Western-Baltic-NC-1b.png (304.17 KiB) Viewed 431 times
- 15-AL-Western-Baltic-NC-1c.png (234.59 KiB) Viewed 431 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. Western Front.
Ground Strikes.
(1/5) Bordeaux, France.
[woods, snow, artillery]
(1) 8 in arty div(5/4=1), M12(155) SP gun(5/2=1), 4.5 in arty div(4/4=1) vs isolated LXXI inf corps.
(a) M12(155) SP gun=2 (missed).
(b) 8 in arty div=7 (missed)
(b) 4.5 in arty div=1 (flipped).
(2/5) Brussel, Belgium.
[clear, snow, ?]
(2) USAAF P-61 Black Widow(5/2=3) vs 3 ground & 2 air targets.
(3) Ex 1.5 flips w/o intercept.
(4) [?=Opposed] Ju 88G under ground strike (Saarbrucken, Germany) intercepts.
(5) Ju 88G under ground strike (Saarbrucken) intercepts.
(6) USN F6F-5 CAG(7) (counter) intercepts.
(7) Air-to-Air RD1(-1 AX/+1 AL): GER=17 -> DX -> AA -> P-61 Black Widow (F/B) aborted.
(8) USN=5 -> DX -> Ju 88G shot down, PIL survives.
(3/5) Saarbrucken, Germany.
[clear, snow,?]
(9) USAAF P-61 Black Widow(6/2=3) vs 2 air targets.
(10) Ex 0.6 flips w/o intercept.
(11) Ju 88G, 1 of 2 air targeted, intercepts ground strike at Brussels.
(12) Bf 109 F-2 intercepts if D10 <= 3 (expected flips now = 0.3).
(13) D10=10 -> does NOT intercept. [?=unopposed].
(14) P-61 F/B(6/2=3) vs Bf 109 F-2=4 (missed).
Ground Strikes.
(1/5) Bordeaux, France.
[woods, snow, artillery]
(1) 8 in arty div(5/4=1), M12(155) SP gun(5/2=1), 4.5 in arty div(4/4=1) vs isolated LXXI inf corps.
(a) M12(155) SP gun=2 (missed).
(b) 8 in arty div=7 (missed)
(b) 4.5 in arty div=1 (flipped).
- 15-AL-Western-GSTK-1-Bordeaux.png (382.66 KiB) Viewed 374 times
[clear, snow, ?]
(2) USAAF P-61 Black Widow(5/2=3) vs 3 ground & 2 air targets.
(3) Ex 1.5 flips w/o intercept.
(4) [?=Opposed] Ju 88G under ground strike (Saarbrucken, Germany) intercepts.
(5) Ju 88G under ground strike (Saarbrucken) intercepts.
(6) USN F6F-5 CAG(7) (counter) intercepts.
(7) Air-to-Air RD1(-1 AX/+1 AL): GER=17 -> DX -> AA -> P-61 Black Widow (F/B) aborted.
(8) USN=5 -> DX -> Ju 88G shot down, PIL survives.
- 15-AL-Western-GSTK-2-Brussel-Belgium.png (245.57 KiB) Viewed 430 times
[clear, snow,?]
(9) USAAF P-61 Black Widow(6/2=3) vs 2 air targets.
(10) Ex 0.6 flips w/o intercept.
(11) Ju 88G, 1 of 2 air targeted, intercepts ground strike at Brussels.
(12) Bf 109 F-2 intercepts if D10 <= 3 (expected flips now = 0.3).
(13) D10=10 -> does NOT intercept. [?=unopposed].
(14) P-61 F/B(6/2=3) vs Bf 109 F-2=4 (missed).
- 15-AL-Western-GSTK-3-Sarrbrucken.png (384.73 KiB) Viewed 430 times
Last edited by rkr1958 on Sun Jul 28, 2024 9:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. Western Front.
Ground Strikes.
(4/5) Belgrade, Yugoslavia.
[clear, snow, artillery, unopposed]
(1) 25 pd arty div(2/2=1), RAF Stirling Mk I (3/2=2) vs isolated 2 ground targets.
(2) Arty div vs isolated (a) XLV inf=1 (flipped), (b) 75 mm AT div=6 (missed).
(3) Sterling Mk. I vs (b) 75 mm AT div=4 (missed).
(5/5) Liege, Belgium.
[clear, snow, ?]
(4) RAF Blenheim Mk. IV(3/2) vs 1 air targets.
(5) Ex 0.2 flips w/o intercept.
(6) Intercept if D10 <=2, D10=7, unopposed.
(7) RES = 4 (missed).
Ground Strikes.
(4/5) Belgrade, Yugoslavia.
[clear, snow, artillery, unopposed]
(1) 25 pd arty div(2/2=1), RAF Stirling Mk I (3/2=2) vs isolated 2 ground targets.
(2) Arty div vs isolated (a) XLV inf=1 (flipped), (b) 75 mm AT div=6 (missed).
(3) Sterling Mk. I vs (b) 75 mm AT div=4 (missed).
- 15-AL-Balkans-GSTK-4-Belgrade-YUG.png (385.77 KiB) Viewed 429 times
[clear, snow, ?]
(4) RAF Blenheim Mk. IV(3/2) vs 1 air targets.
(5) Ex 0.2 flips w/o intercept.
(6) Intercept if D10 <=2, D10=7, unopposed.
(7) RES = 4 (missed).
- 15-AL-Western_GSTK-5-Leige-Belgium.png (387.21 KiB) Viewed 429 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. Asian Theater.
Ground Strike.
(1/2) Manchuria 56,153.
[clear, snow, artillery]
(1) 155 mm arty div(6/2=3) vs isolated IJA Terauchi HQ-I=9 (missed).
(2/2) Chengchow, China.
[clear, snow, artillery]
(2) 105 mm arty div(3/2=2) vs isolated Osaka MIL army=6 (missed).
Ground Strike.
(1/2) Manchuria 56,153.
[clear, snow, artillery]
(1) 155 mm arty div(6/2=3) vs isolated IJA Terauchi HQ-I=9 (missed).
- 15-AL-Asian-Manchuria-GSTK-56-153.png (434.41 KiB) Viewed 428 times
[clear, snow, artillery]
(2) 105 mm arty div(3/2=2) vs isolated Osaka MIL army=6 (missed).
- 15-AL-Asian-NAT-GSTK-Chencchow-CHI.png (412.93 KiB) Viewed 428 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. The Eastern Front.
Ground Strike.
(1/2) Belorussia 47,52.
[clear, snow, ?]
(1) Pe=2(3*/2=2*) vs Manstein HQ-A & SS panzer div.
(2) Ex 0.72 flips w/o intercept (given HQ 0.72+0.36 = 1.08 for intercept evaluation).
(3) No fighter in range to intercept, so [?=unopposed].
(4) Pe-2(3*/2=2*) vs (a) Manstein HQ-A=10,8 (missed), (b) 1st SS panzer div=3,5 (missed).
(2/2) Poland 53,51.
[clear, snow, ?]
(5) IL-10(4*/2=2*), unescorted vs Guderian HQ-A.
(6) Ex 0.36 flips w/o intercept (given HQ 0.36+0.36=0.72 for intercept evaluation).
(7) Bf 109 G-2 (Lvov, Poland) will intercept if D100 <= 72.
(8) D100(OG)=66 -> opposed by Bf 109 G-2.
(9) Bf 109 G-2 (unopposed) intercepts.
(10) Air-to-Air RD1(+1 AX/-1 AL): GER=4 -> AX -> IL-10 Sturmovik shot down, PIL survives.
(11) USSR=7 -> DA -> Bf 109G-2 Gustav aborted but after it did its job very well.
Ground Strike.
(1/2) Belorussia 47,52.
[clear, snow, ?]
(1) Pe=2(3*/2=2*) vs Manstein HQ-A & SS panzer div.
(2) Ex 0.72 flips w/o intercept (given HQ 0.72+0.36 = 1.08 for intercept evaluation).
(3) No fighter in range to intercept, so [?=unopposed].
(4) Pe-2(3*/2=2*) vs (a) Manstein HQ-A=10,8 (missed), (b) 1st SS panzer div=3,5 (missed).
- 15-AL-Eastern-GSTK-1-Belorussia-47-52.png (378.28 KiB) Viewed 427 times
[clear, snow, ?]
(5) IL-10(4*/2=2*), unescorted vs Guderian HQ-A.
(6) Ex 0.36 flips w/o intercept (given HQ 0.36+0.36=0.72 for intercept evaluation).
(7) Bf 109 G-2 (Lvov, Poland) will intercept if D100 <= 72.
(8) D100(OG)=66 -> opposed by Bf 109 G-2.
(9) Bf 109 G-2 (unopposed) intercepts.
(10) Air-to-Air RD1(+1 AX/-1 AL): GER=4 -> AX -> IL-10 Sturmovik shot down, PIL survives.
(11) USSR=7 -> DA -> Bf 109G-2 Gustav aborted but after it did its job very well.
- 15-AL-Eastern_GSTK-2-Poland-53-51.png (242.1 KiB) Viewed 427 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. Asian Theater.
Land Combat. Manchuria 54,154.
(1) Automatic +21A vs isolated & flipped IJA 2nd tank corps.
(2) Only IJA unit left in Manchuria is the isolated but organized Terauchi HQ-I.
Manchuria. Korea. End of Impulse.
China. Formosa. End of Impulse.
Land Combat. Manchuria 54,154.
(1) Automatic +21A vs isolated & flipped IJA 2nd tank corps.
(2) Only IJA unit left in Manchuria is the isolated but organized Terauchi HQ-I.
- 15-AL-Asian-LC-Manchuria-54-154.png (280.65 KiB) Viewed 407 times
- 15-AL-Asian-Manchuria-Korea-EOI.png (1.9 MiB) Viewed 407 times
- 15-AL-Asian-China-Formosa-EOI.png (1.98 MiB) Viewed 407 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. The Eastern Front.
Land Combat (7/7). Georgia 62,75.
(1) 2 winterized armies -> +2 + 14A (100% PWIN, 81% PNL) = +16A (100%, 90%).
(2) LC (+16A) RES: No FOR, 2D10=18, LCR=16+18=34, isolated & flipped German inf div destroyed without loss or flip.
(3) Too bad the Red Army couldn't have had this 2D10=18 on either of their 2 earlier blitz land combats where they rolled a 4 twice in a row!
Georgia. Azerbaijan. Turkey. Middle East. End of Impulse.
Land Combat (7/7). Georgia 62,75.
(1) 2 winterized armies -> +2 + 14A (100% PWIN, 81% PNL) = +16A (100%, 90%).
(2) LC (+16A) RES: No FOR, 2D10=18, LCR=16+18=34, isolated & flipped German inf div destroyed without loss or flip.
(3) Too bad the Red Army couldn't have had this 2D10=18 on either of their 2 earlier blitz land combats where they rolled a 4 twice in a row!
- 15-AL-Eastern-LC-7-Georgia-62-75.png (297.33 KiB) Viewed 406 times
- 15-AL-Turkey-Middle-East-Georgia-EOI.png (2.01 MiB) Viewed 406 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. The Eastern Front.
Land Combat (1/7). Poland 53,51
HQ Support.
(0) Guderian HQ-A Support (own self) -> -2 + 9.333B (97.7% PWIN, 64.3% PNL, 66.7% PBKT) = 7.333B (91.3%, 52.7%, 48.3%).
Ground Support.
[clear, snow, opposed] 40AF.
(1) Offensive. IL-10(5*), IL-10(4*), IL-4 XR(2/4), Tu-2 XR(4*/2) w/Yak-9DD(5), YaK-7DI(6)
(2) Defensive. Ju 87B(5/2), Ju 88s XR(3/4), Ju 87D(5/2), He 111 XR(5/4) w/Ju 388J TE, NF(8).
(3) Air-to-Air:
(a) RD1(+2 AX/-1 AL): GER=7 -> AA (TE, NF) -> DA -> IL-4 DB-3 (bomber) aborted. USSR=3 -> AX -> Ju 388J (fighter) shot down, PIL survives. Remaining Soviet bombers clear.
(b) RD2(-1 AX/+2 AL): GER=9 -> AC -> NE. USSR=12 -> AC -> Ju 88S cleared.
(c) RD3(-5 AX/+6 AL): GER=7 -> none. USSR=14 -> DX -> He 111 H-3 shot down, PIL survives.
(d) RD4(-3 AX/+4 AL): GER=11 -> DC -> NE. USSR=11 -> DC -> Ju 87D Stuka cleared.
(e) RD5(-5 AX/+6 AL): GER=15 -> none. USSR=9 -> DA -> Ju 87B Stuka aborted.
(4) Resolution:
(a) OFF GSPT RES -> 11 of 12 GSF clear vs 6 DF -> +3.667 + 7.333B(91.3% PWIN, 52.7% PNL, 48.3% PBKT) = +11B (100%, 75%, 79%).
(b) DEF GSPT RES -> 3 of 6 GSF clear + 6 DF = 9 DF -> -5.667 + 11B (100% PWIN, 75% PNL, 79% PBKT) = +5.333B (81%, 40.3%, 30.7%).
Land Combat.
(5) 4 winterized Soviets armies -> +4 + 5.333B(81% PWIN, 40.3% PNL, 30.7% PBKT) = +9.333B(97.7%,64.3%, 66.7%).
(6) LC (+9.333) RES: FOR(<333)=194 (yes), 2D10=4 (YIKES!), LCR=9+1+4=14 -> a blood victory.
(7) Guderian HQ-A destroyed, Soviets lose 3rd Gd mot army and all surviving attackers (3 armies, 2 divs) flip.
(8) The Soviet consider the loss of a mot army a very good trade for the destruction of Guderian's HQ-A.
Land Combat (1/7). Poland 53,51
HQ Support.
(0) Guderian HQ-A Support (own self) -> -2 + 9.333B (97.7% PWIN, 64.3% PNL, 66.7% PBKT) = 7.333B (91.3%, 52.7%, 48.3%).
Ground Support.
[clear, snow, opposed] 40AF.
(1) Offensive. IL-10(5*), IL-10(4*), IL-4 XR(2/4), Tu-2 XR(4*/2) w/Yak-9DD(5), YaK-7DI(6)
(2) Defensive. Ju 87B(5/2), Ju 88s XR(3/4), Ju 87D(5/2), He 111 XR(5/4) w/Ju 388J TE, NF(8).
(3) Air-to-Air:
(a) RD1(+2 AX/-1 AL): GER=7 -> AA (TE, NF) -> DA -> IL-4 DB-3 (bomber) aborted. USSR=3 -> AX -> Ju 388J (fighter) shot down, PIL survives. Remaining Soviet bombers clear.
(b) RD2(-1 AX/+2 AL): GER=9 -> AC -> NE. USSR=12 -> AC -> Ju 88S cleared.
(c) RD3(-5 AX/+6 AL): GER=7 -> none. USSR=14 -> DX -> He 111 H-3 shot down, PIL survives.
(d) RD4(-3 AX/+4 AL): GER=11 -> DC -> NE. USSR=11 -> DC -> Ju 87D Stuka cleared.
(e) RD5(-5 AX/+6 AL): GER=15 -> none. USSR=9 -> DA -> Ju 87B Stuka aborted.
(4) Resolution:
(a) OFF GSPT RES -> 11 of 12 GSF clear vs 6 DF -> +3.667 + 7.333B(91.3% PWIN, 52.7% PNL, 48.3% PBKT) = +11B (100%, 75%, 79%).
(b) DEF GSPT RES -> 3 of 6 GSF clear + 6 DF = 9 DF -> -5.667 + 11B (100% PWIN, 75% PNL, 79% PBKT) = +5.333B (81%, 40.3%, 30.7%).
- 15-AL-Eastern-GSPT-1-A2A-Poland-53-51.png (265.05 KiB) Viewed 405 times
- 15-AL-Eastern-GSPT-1-A2A-Poland-53-51.png (265.05 KiB) Viewed 405 times
(5) 4 winterized Soviets armies -> +4 + 5.333B(81% PWIN, 40.3% PNL, 30.7% PBKT) = +9.333B(97.7%,64.3%, 66.7%).
(6) LC (+9.333) RES: FOR(<333)=194 (yes), 2D10=4 (YIKES!), LCR=9+1+4=14 -> a blood victory.
(7) Guderian HQ-A destroyed, Soviets lose 3rd Gd mot army and all surviving attackers (3 armies, 2 divs) flip.
(8) The Soviet consider the loss of a mot army a very good trade for the destruction of Guderian's HQ-A.
- 15-AL-Eastern-LC-1-Poland-53-51.png (272 KiB) Viewed 405 times
- Attachments
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- 15-AL-Eastern-GSPT-1-Poland-53-51.png (378 KiB) Viewed 405 times
Last edited by rkr1958 on Sun Jul 28, 2024 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. The Eastern Front.
Land Combat (2/7). Iasi, Romania
HQ Support.
(0) Model HQ-I Support (own self) -> -1 + 8.667B (96% PWIN, 60% PNL, 61% PBKT) = 7.667B (92.7%, 54.3%, 51.7%).
Ground Support.
[woods, snow]
(1) CAP -> La-5FN(5).
(2) No defensive or offensive ground support.
Land Combat.
(1) 4 winterized Soviets armies -> +4 + 7.167B (90.7% PWIN, 51.8% PNL, 46.7% PBKT) = 11.167B (100%, 76%, 90%).
(2) LC (+11.167B) RES: FOR(<167)=822 (no), 2D10=4 (ANOTHER 4!), LCR=11+0+4=15, another bloody victory.
(3) Model HQ-I destroyed, Soviets lose mot div and 4 surviving armies flip.
(4) Good thing for the Soviets it's so late in the turn!
Land Combat (3/7). Belorussia 45,52.
Ground Support.
[clear, snow, unopposed]
(5) TB-3(4/2), TB-3(3/2) w/Yak-9M(6), YaK-9D(6) -> 4 GSF vs 13 DF -> 0.615 + 3.077B (36.7% PWIN, 27.4% PNL, 15.5% PBKT) = 3.692B (42.2%, 30.5%, 19.2%).
Land Combat.
(6) 4 winterized Soviet armies -> +4 + 3.692B(42.2% PWIN, 30.5% PNL, 19.2% PBKT) = +7.692B(76.8%, 54.5%, 51.9%).
(7) LC (+7.692B) RES: FOR(<692)=389 (yes), 2D10=8, LCR=7+1+8=16 -> SS panzer corps & Wehrmacht arty div retreated, Soviets lose mot div and flip 4 armies, 1 div.
Land Combat (2/7). Iasi, Romania
HQ Support.
(0) Model HQ-I Support (own self) -> -1 + 8.667B (96% PWIN, 60% PNL, 61% PBKT) = 7.667B (92.7%, 54.3%, 51.7%).
Ground Support.
[woods, snow]
(1) CAP -> La-5FN(5).
(2) No defensive or offensive ground support.
Land Combat.
(1) 4 winterized Soviets armies -> +4 + 7.167B (90.7% PWIN, 51.8% PNL, 46.7% PBKT) = 11.167B (100%, 76%, 90%).
(2) LC (+11.167B) RES: FOR(<167)=822 (no), 2D10=4 (ANOTHER 4!), LCR=11+0+4=15, another bloody victory.
(3) Model HQ-I destroyed, Soviets lose mot div and 4 surviving armies flip.
(4) Good thing for the Soviets it's so late in the turn!
- 15-AL-Eastern-LC-2-Iasi-Romania.png (291.21 KiB) Viewed 403 times
Ground Support.
[clear, snow, unopposed]
(5) TB-3(4/2), TB-3(3/2) w/Yak-9M(6), YaK-9D(6) -> 4 GSF vs 13 DF -> 0.615 + 3.077B (36.7% PWIN, 27.4% PNL, 15.5% PBKT) = 3.692B (42.2%, 30.5%, 19.2%).
- 15-AL-Eastern-GSPT-3-Belorussia-45-52.png (394.32 KiB) Viewed 403 times
(6) 4 winterized Soviet armies -> +4 + 3.692B(42.2% PWIN, 30.5% PNL, 19.2% PBKT) = +7.692B(76.8%, 54.5%, 51.9%).
(7) LC (+7.692B) RES: FOR(<692)=389 (yes), 2D10=8, LCR=7+1+8=16 -> SS panzer corps & Wehrmacht arty div retreated, Soviets lose mot div and flip 4 armies, 1 div.
- 15-AL-Eastern-LC-3-Belorussia-45-52.png (291.44 KiB) Viewed 403 times
Last edited by rkr1958 on Sun Jul 28, 2024 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. The Eastern Front.
Land Combat (4/7). Belorussia 43,53.
Ground Support.
[clear, snow, unopposed]
(1) IL-2m3(5/2) w/Yak-9T(6) -> 3 GSF vs 7 DF -> 0.857 + 6.286B(66.3% PWIN, 46.7% PNL, 38.6% PBKT) = +7.143B(73%, 51.7%, 46.4%).
Land Combat.
(2) 4 Soviet winterized armies, but only +3? Oh, I see. 2 of the winterized armies are attacking across a river without eng support.
(3) +3 + 7.143B (73% PWIN, 51.7% PNL, 46.4% PBKT) = +10.143B (90.6%, 69.9%, 73%)."
(4) LC (+10.143B) RES: FOR(<143)=307 (no), 2D10=12, LCR=10+0+12=22, Wehrmacht X inf corps destroyed without loss or flip.
(5) Soviet 1st Gd Mot eng div was at risk but no loss required.
Land Combat (5/7). Ukraine 51,52.
Ground Support.
[snow, marsh]
(1) CAP(GSPT) -> Yak-9k(6).
(2) No offensive or defensive ground support.
Land Combat.
(3) 3 Soviet winterized armies -> +3 + 20B(100% PWIN, 100% PNL, 100% PBRK) = +23B(100%,100%,100%).
(4) Overkill but this is Red Army vs (vol) SS MIL corps!
(5) Automatic +23B vs SS Friwill (vol) MIL.
Land Combat (6/7). Ukraine 48,52.
HQ Support.
(6) ROM Antonescu HQ-I Support (own self) -> -0.5 + 13.333B (100% PWIN, 87.3% PNL, 0% PBKT) = 12.833B (100%, 85.2%, 0%).
Land Combat.
(7) 1 winterized army & 1 winterized corps -> +2 + 12.833B (100% PWIN, 85.2% PNL, 0% PBKT) = +14.833B (100%, 92.5%, 0%).
LC (+14.833B) RES: FOR(<833)=4 (yes), 2D10=11, LCR=14+1+11=26 -> a third axis HQ is destroyed this impulse, Romania's Antonesuc HQ-I, without loss or flip.
Land Combat (4/7). Belorussia 43,53.
Ground Support.
[clear, snow, unopposed]
(1) IL-2m3(5/2) w/Yak-9T(6) -> 3 GSF vs 7 DF -> 0.857 + 6.286B(66.3% PWIN, 46.7% PNL, 38.6% PBKT) = +7.143B(73%, 51.7%, 46.4%).
- 15-AL-Eastern-GSTP-4-Belorussia-43-53.png (388.15 KiB) Viewed 402 times
(2) 4 Soviet winterized armies, but only +3? Oh, I see. 2 of the winterized armies are attacking across a river without eng support.
(3) +3 + 7.143B (73% PWIN, 51.7% PNL, 46.4% PBKT) = +10.143B (90.6%, 69.9%, 73%)."
(4) LC (+10.143B) RES: FOR(<143)=307 (no), 2D10=12, LCR=10+0+12=22, Wehrmacht X inf corps destroyed without loss or flip.
(5) Soviet 1st Gd Mot eng div was at risk but no loss required.
- 15-AL-Eastern-LC-4-Belorussia-43-53.png (268.37 KiB) Viewed 402 times
Ground Support.
[snow, marsh]
(1) CAP(GSPT) -> Yak-9k(6).
(2) No offensive or defensive ground support.
Land Combat.
(3) 3 Soviet winterized armies -> +3 + 20B(100% PWIN, 100% PNL, 100% PBRK) = +23B(100%,100%,100%).
(4) Overkill but this is Red Army vs (vol) SS MIL corps!
(5) Automatic +23B vs SS Friwill (vol) MIL.
- 15-AL-Eastern-LC-5-Ukraine-51-52.png (202.02 KiB) Viewed 402 times
HQ Support.
(6) ROM Antonescu HQ-I Support (own self) -> -0.5 + 13.333B (100% PWIN, 87.3% PNL, 0% PBKT) = 12.833B (100%, 85.2%, 0%).
Land Combat.
(7) 1 winterized army & 1 winterized corps -> +2 + 12.833B (100% PWIN, 85.2% PNL, 0% PBKT) = +14.833B (100%, 92.5%, 0%).
LC (+14.833B) RES: FOR(<833)=4 (yes), 2D10=11, LCR=14+1+11=26 -> a third axis HQ is destroyed this impulse, Romania's Antonesuc HQ-I, without loss or flip.
- 15-AL-Eastern-LC-6-USSR-48-52.png (282.48 KiB) Viewed 402 times
Last edited by rkr1958 on Sun Jul 28, 2024 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #15. The Eastern Front.
HQ Reorg.
(1) Cheryakhovsky HQ-A (3) reorgs 1st Gd tank army, 2nd Gd tank army & 9th Banner inf army.
(2) Might as well even with only a 2 to 4% allies get another impulse this turn.
(3) Because all it cost is some oil and the Soviets have plenty of that!
End of Impulse.
HQ Reorg.
(1) Cheryakhovsky HQ-A (3) reorgs 1st Gd tank army, 2nd Gd tank army & 9th Banner inf army.
(2) Might as well even with only a 2 to 4% allies get another impulse this turn.
(3) Because all it cost is some oil and the Soviets have plenty of that!
- 15-AX-Eastern-HQ-Reorg.png (311.28 KiB) Viewed 401 times
- 15-AL-Eastern-EOI.png (2.17 MiB) Viewed 401 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #12. Balkans. Italy.
End of Impulse.
End of Impulse.
- 15-AL-Balkans-Italy-EOI.png (2.29 MiB) Viewed 400 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #12. The Western Front.
Operation Varsity. Land Combat (1/4). Aachen, Germany.
Paradrop.
[night, clear, snow, opposed]
(1) USAAF C-47 w/US XVIII para corps & (2) USAAF C-47 w/US XXXIV para corps.
(2) Bf 109 F-2(6), BF 109 F-2(6) intercept.
(3) RAF Spitfire XIV(9), Spitfire VIII(7), USAAF F4F-3(5) (counter) intercept.
(4) Air-to-Air:
(a) RD1(-3 AX/+3 AL): GER=9 -> AC -> C-47 w/XVIII cleared. RAF=12 -> DC -> NE.
(b) RD2(-3 AX/+3 AL): GER=9 -> AC -> DC -> C-47 w/XXXIV cleared. RAF=13 -> DA -> none.
(5) US XVIII & XXXIV para corps successfully drop.
Ground Support.
[woods, snow, opposed
(6) USAAF B-17F(3/4), B-24G(2/4), B-24D(2/4), P-47D (3*/4) w/RAF Tempest V(9), Beau fighter(TE,NF,6).
(7) Ju 86G XR(2/8), Do217M(4/4) w/Bf 109 G-8(7).
(8) USAAF P-38F(5) (counter) intercepts & joins the escorting allied fighters.
(9) Air-to-Air:
(a) RD1(-3 AX/+3 AL): GER=13 -> AC -> B-17F Flying Fortress cleared. RAF=7 -> AA -> Bf 109G-6 Gustav (fighter) aborted. All allied bombers cleared.
(b) RD2(-9 AX/+9 AL): Luftwaffe willing to risk obsolete Ju 86G to try to get lucky and get Do 217M through or shoot down an RAF Tempest V fighter.
GER=11 -> DC -> NE. RAF=10 -> none. There is no defender clear possible at +9 AL, so Luftwaffe aborts.
(10) OFF GSPT RES -> 3 of 3 allied GSF gets through (& 0 of 2 Luftwaffe) vs 4-str notional -> +1.5 + 14.5A(100% PWIN, 83.5% PNL) = 16A (100%, 90%).
(11) DEF GSPT RES -> 0 of 1 Luftwaffe defensive GSF get through.
Operation Varsity. Land Combat (1/4). Aachen, Germany.
Paradrop.
[night, clear, snow, opposed]
(1) USAAF C-47 w/US XVIII para corps & (2) USAAF C-47 w/US XXXIV para corps.
(2) Bf 109 F-2(6), BF 109 F-2(6) intercept.
(3) RAF Spitfire XIV(9), Spitfire VIII(7), USAAF F4F-3(5) (counter) intercept.
(4) Air-to-Air:
(a) RD1(-3 AX/+3 AL): GER=9 -> AC -> C-47 w/XVIII cleared. RAF=12 -> DC -> NE.
(b) RD2(-3 AX/+3 AL): GER=9 -> AC -> DC -> C-47 w/XXXIV cleared. RAF=13 -> DA -> none.
(5) US XVIII & XXXIV para corps successfully drop.
- 15-AL-Western-Para-Drop-A2A-Aachen.png (282.42 KiB) Viewed 398 times
- 15-AL-Western-Para-Drop-Aachen.png (362.42 KiB) Viewed 398 times
[woods, snow, opposed
(6) USAAF B-17F(3/4), B-24G(2/4), B-24D(2/4), P-47D (3*/4) w/RAF Tempest V(9), Beau fighter(TE,NF,6).
(7) Ju 86G XR(2/8), Do217M(4/4) w/Bf 109 G-8(7).
(8) USAAF P-38F(5) (counter) intercepts & joins the escorting allied fighters.
(9) Air-to-Air:
(a) RD1(-3 AX/+3 AL): GER=13 -> AC -> B-17F Flying Fortress cleared. RAF=7 -> AA -> Bf 109G-6 Gustav (fighter) aborted. All allied bombers cleared.
(b) RD2(-9 AX/+9 AL): Luftwaffe willing to risk obsolete Ju 86G to try to get lucky and get Do 217M through or shoot down an RAF Tempest V fighter.
GER=11 -> DC -> NE. RAF=10 -> none. There is no defender clear possible at +9 AL, so Luftwaffe aborts.
(10) OFF GSPT RES -> 3 of 3 allied GSF gets through (& 0 of 2 Luftwaffe) vs 4-str notional -> +1.5 + 14.5A(100% PWIN, 83.5% PNL) = 16A (100%, 90%).
(11) DEF GSPT RES -> 0 of 1 Luftwaffe defensive GSF get through.
- 15-AL-Western-GSPT-1-A2A-Aachen-Germany.png (262.97 KiB) Viewed 398 times
- 15-AL-Western-GSPT-1-Aachen-Germany.png (390.67 KiB) Viewed 398 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #12. The Western Front.
Operation Varsity. Land Combat (1/4). Aachen, Germany.
Land Combat.
(1) LC (+16A) RES: No FOR, 2D10=13, LCR=29.
(2) Link up with US airborne army in Aachen successful.
Land Combat (2/4) Brussels, Belgium.
Ground Support.
[clear, snow, opposed]
(3) RAF Lancaster(4/2), RN Whitley XR(2/4), Mosquito XR(6/4), Harrow ATR(2/2), RN Swordfish CAG(1/2), Beaufighter(3/2) w/Hurricane IIC(5)
(4) USAAF P-51D Mustang F/B(3/2), P-51B Mustang F/B(3/2), P-38J F/B(4/2) USN SBD (1/2) w/P-38H(6)
(5) Luftwaffe Do-217E(3/2), Ju 388K(5/4) w/ Bf 109B F2(3), Do-335 Pfeil(8).
(6) RAF Tempest V(8), RN Seafire CAG(5),USN F6F-5 CSG(7) (counter) intercepts and joins the escorting allied fighters.
(7) Air-to-Air:
(a) RD1(-2 AX/+2 AL): GER=6 -> DA -> Whitley (bomber) aborted. RAF=13 -> DA -> Do 217E (bomber) aborted.
(b) RD2(-2 AX/+2 AL): GER=9 -> AC -> Swordfish CAG cleared. RAF=8 -> DA -> Ju 388K (bomber) aborted.
(c) RD3(-2 AX/+2 AL): GER=7 -> DA -> P-51B Mustang F/B aborted. RAF=19 -> AX, PX -> Do 335 Pfeil shot down, PIL killed.
(d) RD4(-7 AX/+ 7 AL): GER=12 -> DC -> RAF Lancaster Mk. I cleared. RAF=8 -> AA -> Bf 109B aborted.
(8) OFF GSPT RES -> 11 of 17 GSF clear vs 8 DF -> +1.75 + 10.5A(68% PWIIN, 58% PNL) = 12.25A(80.5%, 69.8%).
(9) DEF GSPT RES -> 0 of 3 Luftwaffe defensive GSF get through.
Land Combat.
(10) TACTICAL MISTAKE - just realized that 2-factor mot eng is NOT included in this assault
(11) Mot eng (2 factor) was included accidentally in adjacent blitz.
(12) The eng mot would have negated -2 (city, factory) penalty and given +14.5A(91% PWIN, 82.3% PNL) vs the actual +12A(80.5%,69.8%)!
(13) Not an insignificant mistake!
(14) LC(+12.5A) RES: FOR(<500)=145 (yes), 2D10=10, LCR=12+1+10=23, WOW!
(15) That was fortunate; otherwise Clark's senior planning officer would have been reassigned.
(16) Wehrmacht LXIX inf corps, mot & inf div destroyed/captured and Brussels liberated.
Operation Varsity. Land Combat (1/4). Aachen, Germany.
Land Combat.
(1) LC (+16A) RES: No FOR, 2D10=13, LCR=29.
(2) Link up with US airborne army in Aachen successful.
- 15-AL-Western-LC-1-Aachen-Germany.png (250.27 KiB) Viewed 385 times
Ground Support.
- 15-AL-Western-GSTP-2-A2A-Brussels-Belgium.png (275.04 KiB) Viewed 386 times
- 15-AL-Western-GSTP-2-Brussels-Belgium.png (383.33 KiB) Viewed 386 times
(3) RAF Lancaster(4/2), RN Whitley XR(2/4), Mosquito XR(6/4), Harrow ATR(2/2), RN Swordfish CAG(1/2), Beaufighter(3/2) w/Hurricane IIC(5)
(4) USAAF P-51D Mustang F/B(3/2), P-51B Mustang F/B(3/2), P-38J F/B(4/2) USN SBD (1/2) w/P-38H(6)
(5) Luftwaffe Do-217E(3/2), Ju 388K(5/4) w/ Bf 109B F2(3), Do-335 Pfeil(8).
(6) RAF Tempest V(8), RN Seafire CAG(5),USN F6F-5 CSG(7) (counter) intercepts and joins the escorting allied fighters.
(7) Air-to-Air:
(a) RD1(-2 AX/+2 AL): GER=6 -> DA -> Whitley (bomber) aborted. RAF=13 -> DA -> Do 217E (bomber) aborted.
(b) RD2(-2 AX/+2 AL): GER=9 -> AC -> Swordfish CAG cleared. RAF=8 -> DA -> Ju 388K (bomber) aborted.
(c) RD3(-2 AX/+2 AL): GER=7 -> DA -> P-51B Mustang F/B aborted. RAF=19 -> AX, PX -> Do 335 Pfeil shot down, PIL killed.
(d) RD4(-7 AX/+ 7 AL): GER=12 -> DC -> RAF Lancaster Mk. I cleared. RAF=8 -> AA -> Bf 109B aborted.
(8) OFF GSPT RES -> 11 of 17 GSF clear vs 8 DF -> +1.75 + 10.5A(68% PWIIN, 58% PNL) = 12.25A(80.5%, 69.8%).
(9) DEF GSPT RES -> 0 of 3 Luftwaffe defensive GSF get through.
Land Combat.
(10) TACTICAL MISTAKE - just realized that 2-factor mot eng is NOT included in this assault
(11) Mot eng (2 factor) was included accidentally in adjacent blitz.
(12) The eng mot would have negated -2 (city, factory) penalty and given +14.5A(91% PWIN, 82.3% PNL) vs the actual +12A(80.5%,69.8%)!
(13) Not an insignificant mistake!
(14) LC(+12.5A) RES: FOR(<500)=145 (yes), 2D10=10, LCR=12+1+10=23, WOW!
(15) That was fortunate; otherwise Clark's senior planning officer would have been reassigned.
(16) Wehrmacht LXIX inf corps, mot & inf div destroyed/captured and Brussels liberated.
- 15-AL-Western-LC-2-Brussels-Belgium.png (248.53 KiB) Viewed 386 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #12. The Western Front.
Land Combat (3/4) Belgium 51,30.
Shore Bombardment.
[snow, clear, 40 AF]
(1) North Sea[3] USN BB Wisconsin(3), Missouri(4), Alaska(2), Tennessee(4), Idaho(4),Wyoming(2) + North Sea[4] Quincy II (2), Boston(2) -> (23-6) SBF = 17 SBF.
(2) North Sea[3] RN BB Rodney(4), Royal Oak(3), Valiant(3), Resolution(3) -> (13-4) SBF = 9 SBF -> 17 + 9 = 26 SBF vs 6 DF -> +8.667 + 10.333B = +19B, with no retreat is auto.
Land Combat.
(3) With no retreat possible, +19B is automatic including the destruction/capture of elite German I para corps and LXXXI Garr.
Land Combat (4/) Bordeaux, France.
(4) Barring incredibly bad luck (1% bad), Bordeaux enclaved will finally be cleared and Bordeaux liberated.
(5) LC(+11A) RES: No FOR, 2D10=8, LCR=19.
(6) Isolated & flipped Wehrmacht elite LXXI inf corps destroyed, Bordeaux liberated & flipped Sub Gp 5048 overran.
(7) US lose inf & garr corps and flip an inf corps.
(8) German Sub Gp 5048 (flipped) overrun, D10=2 & is scuttled (destroyed).
Land Combat (3/4) Belgium 51,30.
Shore Bombardment.
[snow, clear, 40 AF]
(1) North Sea[3] USN BB Wisconsin(3), Missouri(4), Alaska(2), Tennessee(4), Idaho(4),Wyoming(2) + North Sea[4] Quincy II (2), Boston(2) -> (23-6) SBF = 17 SBF.
(2) North Sea[3] RN BB Rodney(4), Royal Oak(3), Valiant(3), Resolution(3) -> (13-4) SBF = 9 SBF -> 17 + 9 = 26 SBF vs 6 DF -> +8.667 + 10.333B = +19B, with no retreat is auto.
Land Combat.
(3) With no retreat possible, +19B is automatic including the destruction/capture of elite German I para corps and LXXXI Garr.
- 15-AL-Western-LC-3-Belgium-51-30.png (227.05 KiB) Viewed 384 times
(4) Barring incredibly bad luck (1% bad), Bordeaux enclaved will finally be cleared and Bordeaux liberated.
(5) LC(+11A) RES: No FOR, 2D10=8, LCR=19.
(6) Isolated & flipped Wehrmacht elite LXXI inf corps destroyed, Bordeaux liberated & flipped Sub Gp 5048 overran.
(7) US lose inf & garr corps and flip an inf corps.
(8) German Sub Gp 5048 (flipped) overrun, D10=2 & is scuttled (destroyed).
- 15-AL-Western-LC-4-Bordeaux-France.png (269.09 KiB) Viewed 384 times
Last edited by rkr1958 on Sun Jul 28, 2024 9:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ronnie