OT: Corona virus

[geofflambert]

.

[JohnDillworth]

NYC had a couple of “better” days and then a real bad one yesterday. 900 new cases Tuesday and then 6500 new cases yesterday. Hospital admission fade is slowing but that is because they are running out of room and the rules are changing as to who gets admitted. Most people are isolated fairly well considering the density but you still see the occasional group of nitwits playing soccer or basketball. Playgrounds are now all closed. Took a walk over to the Brooklyn Bridge and saw maybe 3 bicycles riding over. Normally there are thousands of people on a day like this. Office of Emergency Managment is over that way. From the looks of the parking lot they have thinned out and are working remotely. Emergency Services are starting to get thin. FDNY has a few hundred EMTs that moved over there. They will be pulled out and used as EMTs. The unions normally would go nuts but that is the last of the reserves. EMTs are used both in the field and as dispatchers. The rotation is a good system that gives people a mental break or if someone is on light duty. Thousands of cops are out. Crime is way down, except for burglary. Closed stores are an easy target. NYPD seems to have a handle on it. One slightly funny note is some officers that have been behind desks for years are being put into the field. Got a couple of captains that look like Cheif Wiggam from the Simpsons with their shirt buttons hanging on for dear life

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Former Chicom booster sours on the CCP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU

Holy conspiracy theory Batman!

This is next level stuff, and while I don't want to believe it I can't help but be influenced. Too much info out there that matches with this interpretation. Yikes!

I think it's clear the presenter is saying "accident" at a "lab", and is NOT saying "bio weapon" or "bio weapon lab". The publicly available information supports his conclusion, as I presume a bio weapon lab would not be advertising so openly for researchers or have researchers publishing papers.

[geofflambert]

.

[RFalvo69]

Dottor Fauci gets death threats.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/poli ... index.html

The Washington Post is reporting the same. I mean, what is passing through the heads of these guys?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Falvo said:

Even happier news are the PTSD that will hit the whole World when all of this will be over. Don't fool yourself in thinking otherwise: we will be all suffering from PTSD (**). Doctors and nurses will be the hardest hit, then the Police/Army, politicians (no matter what your opinion is about them and what they are doing, a large number is sleeping for three hours/day while taking decisions that will affect tens of millions of people), and then us.

Man, did you nail that. Imagine all the decisions to let people die for lack of ventilators. All the family members who can't be with their sick loved ones. It's a freaking nightmare. I am not sleeping well and we are not in the worst of it by any means here. At the hospital Monday the Ob Nurse Practitioner gave me s*** for wearing fresh gloves to type on the common keyboard that 500 people use a day. "I'm getting tired of YOU DOCTORS not taking your gloves off after going into patient rooms". I wanted, literally, to kill her. I chanted silently to myself..."hare krishna, hare hare, hare lama" then I couldn't remember the next part but the murderous rage was subsiding.

Gen. Romeo Dallaire - the Canadian hero who was in charge of the UN Mission to Rwanda and tried to stop the genocide there from happening, with no support from western countries or the UN - is a PTSD sufferer who later became a world expert on PTSD and its treatment. His book "Shake Hands with the Devil" describes the horrors he saw and the wounds to his psyche from the indifference of the West to act on his requests for help.

His subsequent book "Waiting for First Light" describes his PTSD and how he came to a realization that it is "a disease of the soul", in which everything you believed was good and proper is destroyed and you are left with no faith in anything, no anchor to attach to. That is how PTSD is now approached - to first help the victims understand how they lost their belief system and help them find a new anchor - often through volunteer work to start with.

The people who are able to recognize that the horrible situation they are in is not the norm for the world will keep PTSD to a minimum. Those who feel they must be responsible for not stopping the horrors will internalize that and become strong candidates for PTSD. So the doctors and nurses who despair at the number of unsuccessful resuscitations they have had must be immediately supported to prevent the feeling that they are somehow to blame for the outcome. Easy to do when only one of your patients dies per month, much harder when the number dying per day seems to say you are responsible.

I think RFalvo69 is onto something about PTSD being a long term issue and a public education campaign about what it is and how to fight it would help minimize it.

EDIT: Romeo Dallaire's books. His latest project is about re-programming child soldiers.

https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/autho ... o-dallaire

[RangerJoe]

WWII hero Audie Murphy testified before the US Congress about PTSD which helped bring it into the spotlight in the United States. Then the government started to do something about it. Now, my understanding is that some of the returning United States reserve military units have a stand down time of two weeks instead of going home as soon as the paperwork is done.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I did get one interesting number from an ER nurse in NJ. 85% of the cases that go on vents do not survive. Now that might be because the ERs are only taking the worst cases right now. Also, NYC EMS is no longer transporting cardiac cases without a pulse. You will see it reported as “no longer taking cardiac cases”. Not exactly true. If you have a pulse or they can get one back to you your are going to get a ride

Here in London I saw a figure that was about 50% survival on vents, but it was early and many that had gone on wouldn't be determined for a while. I'd say this is definitely still high, or else why all of the fun to get ventilators in the first place?

As I understand it, the fuss to get ventilators is 1) when a patient needs one that is the only hope they have, and 2) the case load is predicted to surge so that many patients will need one all at the same time.

Edit: I should add I read a while back that patients who get on a ventilator for this seem to be on it for about 3 weeks.

In one of his briefings about a week ago, Gov. Cuomo said that non-Covid-19 patients are on average using a ventilator ~3 or 4 days. The Covid-19 patients tend to be using them 14-21 days. That is one of the big drivers for needing more ventilators for the peak - they are not available for reallocation as fast as usual.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Former Chicom booster sours on the CCP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU

Holy conspiracy theory Batman!

This is next level stuff, and while I don't want to believe it I can't help but be influenced. Too much info out there that matches with this interpretation. Yikes!

I think it's clear the presenter is saying "accident" at a "lab", and is NOT saying "bio weapon" or "bio weapon lab". The publicly available information mitigates toward his conclusion, as I presume a bio weapon lab would not be advertising so openly for researchers or have researchers publishing papers.

Mitigates = decreases, makes less
Militates = increases, makes more likely

[geofflambert]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: obvert




Holy conspiracy theory Batman!

This is next level stuff, and while I don't want to believe it I can't help but be influenced. Too much info out there that matches with this interpretation. Yikes!

I think it's clear the presenter is saying "accident" at a "lab", and is NOT saying "bio weapon" or "bio weapon lab". The publicly available information mitigates toward his conclusion, as I presume a bio weapon lab would not be advertising so openly for researchers or have researchers publishing papers.

Mitigates = decreases, makes less
Militates = increases, makes more likely

Meliorate

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: witpqs


I think it's clear the presenter is saying "accident" at a "lab", and is NOT saying "bio weapon" or "bio weapon lab". The publicly available information mitigates toward his conclusion, as I presume a bio weapon lab would not be advertising so openly for researchers or have researchers publishing papers.

Mitigates = decreases, makes less
Militates = increases, makes more likely

Meliorate

I always thought it was 'ameliorate'. Best check the Funk and Wagnalls ...

[BBfanboy]

One thing about crises - the wackos make themselves known ...

NBC News item:

16h ago / 9:44 PM CDT

Feds charge man with intentionally derailing train near USNS Mercy

LOS ANGELES — Prosecutors charged a locomotive engineer who worked at the Port of Los Angeles with intentionally derailing a train at full speed near the Navy hospital ship Mercy because of suspicions over its activities surrounding COVID-19, according to a federal criminal complaint.

They make it sound like he was trying to damage the ship with the locomotive.

[RFalvo69]

A friend of my daughter is a nurse in one of the biggest hospitals here in Milan. She is working 16 hours/day. We chatted with her a couple of days ago (maybe three, BTW - keeping track of time is becoming difficult).

Anyway, she said that every day about 50 people die in her ward. The procedure is now standard: they are brought away and put in coffins staked in a special room. A priest says some words and then off to the incinerator.

But her voice cracked when she said another thing: "...And, as soon the bed is empty, we start at once the cleaning procedures, so that it can be ready for the next person." I swear that my first thought was "I didn't want to hear this.". I closed my eyes and i imagined a man being loaded on an ambulance, with his family saluting him and trying to keep his morale up. And that moment is, literally, the last time they see each other. No farewells, no funeral, nothing. I don't want this kind of images in my mind, and yet...

On the top of this, this young woman is very conscious that she can catch the virus - and maybe die from it. The tally, as of today are 10,000+ sick and 69 dead among the medical operators. For them it is really like being in the trenches.

A thing I fear is that, when all of this will be over, it will not be in the minds of people. That it will be months before we fill again theatres, supermarkets and other community areas - a further problem for the struggling economy. And what about when we will get the dear, old flu in Winter? I fully expect for a percentage of people to panic at the first signs.

I had a bad flu around the end of January. I had fever, a running nose and fatigue. I spent a week in bed and I got out of it healed. Should I get the same flu next year... I genuinely don’t know how I will feel. Scared, possibly, for at least a few days. The same if someone in my family gets it.

I already mentioned a friend of mine who is a doctor specialised in sleep disorders - but who is also a neuropsychiatrist. I'm thinking about writing an e-mail to him, and ask if he and his colleagues are preparing some measures to alleviate this kind of situation. I guess that they are - after all they are not stupid. Maybe I'll write this e-mail for me - for feeling that I did something.

[RangerJoe]

I am sure that he will be tested for drugs.

[RangerJoe]

Coronavirus: Why some countries wear face masks and others don't
By Tessa Wong

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52015486 ... ket-newtab

[RangerJoe]

I have nothing against rich people nor how they spend their wealth, but:

This Pandemic Is Not Your Vacation
You might not want to spend your quarantine in a city. But the rural places many Americans treat as playgrounds, and the workers who keep them running, will suffer for it.

“Wealth is the vector.” That’s what sociologist Tressie McMillan Cottom tweeted last week, in reference to the spread of COVID-19 across both the globe and the United States. Wealth is not the cause of every concentrated outbreak dotting the United States. But it’s the common denominator of so much of its spread outside of major urban areas. It’s the reason why so many of the coronavirus hot spots in the Mountain West — Sun Valley, Idaho; Gunnison County, Colorado; Summit County, Utah; Gallatin County, Montana — overlap with winter playgrounds for the wealthy. The virus travels via people, and the people who travel the most, both domestically and internationally, are rich people.

A party in the tony bedroom community of Westport, Connecticut, all the way back on March 5, became what one epidemiologist referred to as a “super-spreading event,” with infected attendees dispersing throughout Connecticut and New England, and one party-goer falling ill on a plane ride back to South Africa. In Idaho’s Blaine County, home to Sun Valley, more than half of the residential properties are second homes or rental properties, and more than 30,000 people fly into the regional airport during ski season alone. As of March 31, 187 people in the county of 22,000 have tested positive, including local emergency room physician Brent Russell. Two people have died. The town’s small hospital has two ICU beds and a single ventilator.

“People come here from all over the world,” Russell told the Idaho Statesman. “Especially this time of year. When I’m in the ER, I get people from New York, Washington D.C., San Francisco, Seattle. Every week there’s people from those places. Most likely someone from an urban area or multiple people from urban areas came here and they just set it off.”

[Lokasenna]

Before I respond to screeds, here's a neat page. Check out the map.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ncing.html

So yes, Canoerebel, in states without state-wide orders to socially distance there are some localities doing things on their own, but the lack of a state-wide order, people in these places are not practicing social distancing.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Two weeks ago, I posted "as goes Italy, so goes the world." A week ago, I added, "As goes NYC, so goes the USA."

I hope JohnD might update how the fight is going in NYC. Last week, he offered some hope that the numbers might be turning. I hope that's still the case. I know mortality peak lags behind active cases peak, but it's hard to get through all the chaff at the underlying numbers.

Regarding Italy, there's little doubt the curves in both categories have flattened, though the numbers remain stubbornly high.

That same trend will likely hold true in the US, when the time comes for flattening. In many/most places we may flatten the curve significantly but at the cost of lengthening the x-axis (an outcome many charts showed a few weeks ago, some of them posted in here). This was nevertheless our best option in fighting this given what we know and the possibility/likelihood that with additional time we'll be better able to go into Round 2, if there is one.

Yes, Italy looks to be at their peak today. "Stubbornly high" is a curious choice of words - that's how these things progress.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Peak vents April 12-13, peak new cases (peak active cases can't tell) April 20

The site Eric posted shows a US mortality range of 40k to 175k by July 1 (when the daily numbers become very low), which is substantially different from other reports widely circulated, mainly 100k to 200k.

I guess it depends on your definition of "substantial."

[MakeeLearn]

Florida coronavirus: Gov. DeSantis signs executive order superseding local COVID-19 orders
Apr 2, 2020 / 03:25 PM EDT

https://www.wfla.com/community/health/c ... -covid-19/

"TAMPA (WFLA) – Gov. Ron DeSantis quietly signed a second executive order Wednesday to override any restrictions put in place by local governments to stop the spread of coronavirus.

The order is an amendment to the statewide “safer-at-home” order he also signed on Wednesday. The second order says it “shall supersede any conflicting official action or order issued by local officials in response to COVID-19.”

This would limit stronger orders that have been placed by local Florida governments. The order says this action was taken “to provide clarity.”"