wneumann vs Jolly Pillager- the Allied perspective

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 7/10/42

A tidbit from the 7/9 Sigint report - New location of Jap 1 Mortar Rgt is Tokyo - this LCU was previously based in Sasebo. This movement of 1 Mortar Rgt could indicate its transfer out of HQ Home Defense Force and the unit is being shipped out from the home islands to an undetermined front-line command.


Central Pacific: Most sectors reporting quiet. Japanese forces reported capturing Gardner Is. AAR and situation map of the area follows. Based on Gardner Island's location and composition of Jap LCU's occupying it, a likely intent of this move is to build up Gardner from a dot hex to a small base (mainly airfield) to provide land-based air support for defense of Canton Is.

52 Naval Gd had been previously located at Pago Pago, 144 IJN Base Force is a newly-arrived LCU.

Pillager is well aware at this point of my own build-up activity in the Line Islands - recent increase in Jap sub activity at Palmyra, Christmas and Fanning Is would confirm this. His move to occupy Gardner not much of a surprise. The situation map below may well be a major battleground come 1943.

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Ground combat at Gardner Island

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 555 troops, 2 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 25
52 Naval Gd, 144 IJN Base Force
Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 0

Japanese max assault: 38 - adjusted assault: 20
Allied max defense: 0 - adjusted defense: 1
Japanese assault odds: 20 to 1 (fort level 0)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Gardner Island base !!!

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 7/10/42, part deux...

Central Pacific (cont): U.S. subs report Japanese carrier aircraft patrol sightings at Canton Is, Saipan, and Pago Pago. No U.S. submarine is currently on patrol at Kwajalein since the Tuna was forced to return to Pearl after damage from ASW attack on 7/8 - three U.S. subs are in the area and enroute to Kwajalein, arrival expected in 2-3 days.


South Pacific: No further reports of Japanese scout planes sighted by Allied transports along the Panama City-Wellington shipping route. Allied ship movements in the area are resuming, with individual ship TF's moving in both directions (east & westbound) on a variety of courses.

U.S. sub S-18 on patrol at Rabaul attacked and hit by Ki-49 Helen aircraft. The S-18 was heavily damaged and now heading for Townsville for emergency repair of flood damage.


Australia: Japanese air raid (ground attack) on 4 Australian Division at Daly Waters - light casualties.

Despite Jap air attacks, 4 Division remains in battle-worthy condition (very low disruption) though it has lost a small number of squads (mostly infantry). Two U.S. ground units (4 Marine Rgt, 31 US RCT) also in Daly Waters - both these units are well built up though not yet at full TOE strength.

3 Australian Division is still at Tennant Creek - making good progress in recovery from casualties and heavy disruption received during action at Darwin. HQ I Australian Corps is approaching Tennant Creek from the south. HQ Australian 1st Army and an armored unit also enroute to NW Australia from the south.


Burma/India: British sub Rover torpedoed and sank large Japanese AK (Fujikawa Maru) at Rangoon. Other sectors in both Burma and India reporting little or no major activity.

China: Light ground and air action reported - most sectors relatively quiet.

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 7/11/42

This turn had a very short AAR.

Central Pacific: The usual Jap carrier air patrols - sightings at Canton, Kwajalein, and Pago Pago.

U.S. submarine Grunion at Gardner Is shelled and torpedoed large Japanese AP (Hakozaki Maru) - AP is heavily damaged and on fire. U.S. sub Trout shells a small Japanese AK - AK damaged and on fire.

A flotilla of eight U.S. subs departed Pearl Harbor enroute to Truk on a minelaying mission. Once the subs reach Truk and drop their mines, the flotilla will break up into single sub patrols.

South Pacific: No activity reported along the Panama City-Wellington shipping route. Ship traffic proceeding without incident.

Australia: One Japanese air raid (ground assault) on 4 Australian Division at Daly Waters - light casualties reported.

Burma/India: All sectors reporting quiet. Japanese sub detected rounding the southern tip of India - ASW patrols activated at Colombo, Bombay, and Aden.

China: Light ground activity at hex 47.32

[wneumann]

ORIGINAL: stldiver

You have to transport air units by ship, that the only way.
When you change a west coast units command to Southeast Asia, in 30 days it appears in Karachi.
Thus in answer to your question Land units do automatically move, air units do not.

Hope this helps.

I've been examining a few options in the way of long term strategy - this option is becoming more and more of an idea, especially given the need to open a "second front" to keep Pillager from concentrating his attention on the Central Pacific.

Having gone back and pulled this tidbit (quoted above from stldiver) - one highly possible option for a "second front" could be from India.

To accomplish this - this is what I would appear to have available.

1) A command HQ - USAFFE. This LCU is currently located in Australia (Perth area) and could easily be shipped over to India. It is currently assigned to Southwest Pacific as a sub-headquarters and could be moved to Southeast Asia command to perform the same role. With this HQ in India and a sufficient number of troops to conduct offensive operations, I would not exclude the possiblity of plucking Mac Arthur from SW Pacific back to USAFFE to command offensive operations in the Indian Ocean area.

2) I still have three U.S. divisions (7th, 40th, 41st) and two Corps HQ assigned to West Coast. Along with over 2,000 PP and counting lying around. Troops for HQ USAFFE. I'll need more PP's - but I have time to save up and get 'em.

3) A considerable quantity of amphibious cargo capacity sitting quietly in Aden, including many large, fast, long-range AP's evacuated from Australia. Enough of them to easily carry three divisions.

4) More than enough supply and fuel in Aden and India to support this venture.

5) Whatever aircraft and other goodies I can smuggle over from the U.S.


Once I can manage the demise of the KB (or enough of it), the Dutch Indies might just be the "underbelly" of the Greater Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. Keep those troops in NW Australia, Pillager.

Anyone try this or anything like it? Any comments on its feasibilty or other ideas graciously welcomed..

[Alfred]

Overland supply forward from the Akyab/Imphal line is meagre - thus if the plan is to use USAFFE + 3 divs to move forward on this axis, I doubt that you have sufficient forces to constitute a meaningful Second Front.  If on the otherhand you plan to outflank by landing at Rangoon with sea borne resupply, that would be a significant threat - but do you have the naval and aerial assets to keep the considerable risks within satisfactory parameters?
 
A campaign in/from the Aleutians could be undertaken with minimal risks, although at this stage the rewards would be consequently less.  Here you could island hop under LBA cover and move on the Kuriles when the KB/IJA is heavily committed elsewhere.
 
A third alternative is to move into New Guinea and depending on circumstances move left or right to cut off the enemy forces supply lines to northern Australia or Noumea.
 
Alfred

[wneumann]

Alfred, appreciate the reply. I certainly agree with your view re: attacking from the Akyab/Imphal line. Although an outflanking movement by sea to trap Japanese forces in Burma could be quite lucrative.
 
Jap forces currently known to be in Burma include three HQ's (Burma Area Army, 15th Army 3rd Air Div), three divisions (31st, 33rd, 55th), along with a handful of base and support units.  I would not attempt a landing directly on Rangoon (31st Division & two HQ's known to be there). Moulmein would be a good spot for a landing - near Rangoon (just east of it) plus capturing Moulmein would cut off all of Burma (including Rangoon) from any decent overland supply route. India is also loaded with British combat LCU's to reinforce this effort.
 
Another move (riskier and at longer range) is an amphibious assault on eastern Sumatra (within striking distance of Palembang) or Java. Dreaming is one thing, reality in mid-1942 being another.
 
Before I can consider attempting anything like this, some important prerequisites would be in order...
 
1) I need more PP's. To move three divisions, a Corps HQ, and Mac Arthur to India - this would require something on the order of 8-9,000 PP's. Six or seven thousand more than the 2,000+ PP's I now have on hand. The good news is that I don't have a whole lot to spend PP's on so I'm merrily racking them up.  
 
2) Most importantly... The KB needs to be taken care of. At least in dry dock, preferably sunk. Allied command of the seas (locally if not on the strategic level) is a must. 
 
3) Time. Mid-1942 is way too early. A move like this needs to be prepared slowly and carefully, with a small degree of stealth thrown in.  
 
It might still be a bit early in this PBEM to go on the offensive, but not too early to consider the options. Unless Pillager has another move left that I'm not seeing, this match is or will soon be going into the "trench warfare" phase.
 
The tanks are starting to line up east of the Don.        

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 7/12/42

Another slow day at the office...

Central Pacific: Japanese carrier aircraft sightings at the usual locations - Saipan, Canton Is, Kwajalein. No report from Pago Pago.

South Pacific: Quiet along the southern shipping route. No Japanese activity reported.

Australia/NZ: All sectors reporting quiet. Routine Jap air recon activity, no Japanese air bombing attacks or activity by ground forces.

Malacca Straits: Dutch submarine O-16 torpedoes and sinks small Jap AK. O-16 also reports heavy Japanese ASW activity in the straits, contacts with several Jap ASW TF's.

India: Japanese sub I-123 engaged by Allied ASW TF at Colombo - eight hits reported on the I-123, probable light to moderate damage. Dutch SC OJR-1 torpedoed and sunk by the I-123 during this action.

China: Light ground activity. AAR follows. Jap 20 Mixed Brigade was brought up from rear area garrison duties and re-combined as a full strength unit. Previously, 20 Brigade had been divided and split between two different bases.

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Ground combat at Kanhsien

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 3787 troops, 9 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 99
20 Mixed Brigade
Defending force 6838 troops, 18 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 243
63rd Chinese Corps

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 7/13 - 7/14/42

U.S. carriers completing upgrades. CV Hornet completes 7/42 upgrade, CV Yorktown completes 4/42 and starting 7/42 upgrade. At this point, all U.S. fleet carriers have or will soon be upgraded to 7/42 level.

Central Pacific: The usual Jap carrier air patrol sightings from U.S. submarines - Kwajalein, Pago Pago. However, no report from Canton Is. Otherwise all sectors quiet.

South Pacific: Likewise quiet.

Australia/NZ: Japanese air raid (airfield attack) on Daly Waters (7/13) - light damage and casualties reported. All sectors reporting quiet on 7/14.


Malacca Straits: The Voyages of the Hibiki have been put on hold, at least in this PBEM. Dutch submarine O-16 torpedoed the Hibiki in the Straits. AAR follows.

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Sub attack at 21,47

Japanese Ships
DD Hibiki, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (reported listing, no report of it sinking)
DD Shirakumo
DD Shirayuki
DD Inazuma

Allied Ships
SS O16

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India/Burma: RAF heavy bombers (Liberator III's) hit Mandalay airfield in night raids on 7/13 and 7/14 - light Jap casualties and several runway hits reported.

Jap fighter sweep over Calcutta on 7/14. AAR follows.

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Day Air attack on Calcutta , at 29,23

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 12

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb x 19
P-40B Tomahawk x 10

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIb: 2 damaged
P-40B Tomahawk: 1 damaged

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China: Light ground action (Jap bombardment attacks) at Kanhsien both 7/13 and 7/14. No report of casualties on either side.



The war's become a bit dormant - a lull before the next storm, or is it the beginning of the "trench warfare" phase. Who knows... At some point, this is gonna get pretty bloody when somebody makes a move. Other than the two RN carriers I foolishly lost off NW Australia, both sides are relatively intact and for the most part fully operational.

As of now, Pillager does have a Jap auto victory. Unless something happens to change the situation.

He can afford to sit back, at some point I will have to attack. I do have two small advantages - a bit of time (5 1/2 months) and also that my own forces are relatively intact.

[Alfred]

That's a lot of points to recover.  Five and a half months rapidly disappear, you need to start clawing back those points ASAP.
 
Can you use your "S" class subs to start interdicting the enemy supply lines?  Also any major enemy airfields within range of your 4E?  You may have to start sending unescorted 4E just to get attrition.  At this stage 1:1 air losses help you to pull back the score from an auto VP loss.
 
Alfred

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 7/15/42

A rather unusual occurrance - for the first time in this PBEM, absolutely no ground combat reported. Anywhere.

Central Pacific: Most sectors quiet. Japanese carrier aircraft contacts by U.S. subs at Kwajalein - sub S-35 was hit and heavily damaged in an attack from a Val. No carrier aircraft contacts reported at either Canton Is or Pago Pago.

Japanese amphibious landing reported at Sydney Island (near and just south of Canton Is). This landing appears to be a similar operation to the recent capture of Gardner Is.


South Pacific: TK Topila intercepted and severely damaged by Jap surface TF along the Panama City-Wellington shipping route. Topila was empty and returning to the U.S. after shipping fuel to Australia.

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Night Time Surface Combat at 115,144

Japanese Ships
DD Chidori
DD Manazuru, Shell hits 1 (hit scored on control room)
PG Ukishima Maru

Allied Ships
TK Topila, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (will probably sink before reaching a base)

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Australia: Japanese bombing raid on 4 Australian Division at Daly Waters - heavy casualties reported. Jap fighter sweep reported at Tennant Creek - no Jap losses, three U.S. P-40E damaged.

Malacca Strait: Dutch sub O-16 attacked and damaged by Ki-49 Helen.


India: Jap fighter sweeps reported over Calcutta. AAR's follow.

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Day Air attack on Calcutta , at 29,23

Japanese aircraft
A6M3 Zero x 18

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb x 16
P-40B Tomahawk x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3 Zero: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIb: 2 damaged
P-40B Tomahawk: 3 damaged

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Day Air attack on Calcutta , at 29,23

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 9

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb x 12
P-40B Tomahawk x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIb: 1 damaged
P-40B Tomahawk: 1 damaged

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China: Quiet other than small Jap bombing raids.

[wneumann]

Alfred,
 
I'm seeing clearly the fairly high probability of Pillager getting a Jap auto victory. My two primary options being.
 
1) An immediate large-scale counterattack, probably the "decisive naval battle" somewhere in the Central Pacific just to hold off an auto-victory. At best I lose most of my fleet and maybe get enough of his to hold auto-victory off. Pillager has half his fleet left, I have none (or almost none). Allied comeback in 1944, maybe '45 if even worth playing out.   
 
2) Which I consider the more feasible option... Screw the auto-victory (I chalk that up to my own rookie errors, allowing myself to get thrown off track at a couple points, maybe being over-conservative once or twice). Play on. Even with a Jap auto-victory in Jan '43 the status quo in this PBEM is still a highly playable scenario. Build up for a solid Allied comeback starting in '43.
 
Historically, WWII didn't come with auto-victory conditions. Nimitz, Spruance, and Halsey didn't go into battle with VP considerations in mind. Yamamoto didn't either.
 
Damn the victory points, just win the war.

[Feinder]

I wouldn't start raising the auto-victory alarm just yet.  It's "only" July.  Without goning thru the whole AAR, the that loss screen tells me that the air losses are fairly low.  As the Allied player, your primary point sponges are air losses.  It might be that you're playing hte mod where planes are much more durable (in which case, you're running uphill).  But during the first year, air losses are you can (and need) to be in the game against Japan.  Even tradind unfavorably 2:1 air losses (except in higher numbers), can keep you from an auto-victory.  It might be that your opponent is declining to engage, but basically you've -got- to find a way to engage him.  Kill his planes.

Save your troops.  Allied troop losses are usually what kill the Allied player.  Not losing your fleet (I already did that in my Erstad game).  But do everything you can to keep your guys from surrendering.  Fight a turn and walk away (if you can), just to slow him down.  But Allied troop point losses (per unit) are a killer.

[wneumann]

I think this PBEM is a scenario where aircraft are more durable and difficult to destroy - we're playing CHS campaign scenario 158 (with NikMod changes). Air combat in a CHS scenario apparently being much less bloody than the stock game.

On the air war.... I do not lack for planes. What I do lack is airfields in locations within striking range of Japanese targets. With the exception of along the Burma/India front line and an area in NW Australia, nearly everywhere else Allied and Japanese front-line air bases are outside the maximum range of each others' aircraft.

It's not a question of Pillager or myself declining to engage in air combat, in most areas his forward bases are completely beyond range of my land-based aircraft and vice versa. Neither of us is in a geographic position where we can attack the other with land based aircraft. It's the geography and the way the "front lines" are currently located.

Central Pacific: My forward bases are along the line Midway-Johnston-Line Islands. This facing Japanese front line bases at Wake-Kwajalein-Baker Island-Canton. Except for occasional Jap long range recon flights, no land-based aircraft on either side can reach the other's bases.

South Pacific: With all the major bases under Japanese control, there are no Allied bases from where I can seriously engage him in the air.

Australia: Until I know I can stop a Japanese ground advance southward, I have put airfield construction at bases in the Australian interior on hold. Absolutely no point in building airfields in front of a Japanese ground advance - why give Pillager "free" airfields. A build up of airfields only becomes feasible once the Jap ground advance is stopped.

Burma/India: This is the only place I have a serious opportunity to battle it out in the air. I have been (mostly night) bombing Jap forward air bases at Magwe and Mandalay from Calcutta and other bases in NE India - little in the way of visible results. Pillager has been sending Jap fighter sweeps against Imphal and (more recently) Calcutta. I have been opposing sweeps with 5-6 AVG and British fighter squadrons at each of these bases. Fighter losses on both sides have been very light (probably due to the scenario we're playing).

There is only one way that either Pillager or I can heavily engage the other in the air.... send in the carriers. From my side, this would involve sending in carriers to engage Pillager's land-based air (which would be inevitably reinforced by as much of the KB as could be brought to bear). This battle would occur well beyond the range of my own land based air (including naval search to spot Jap carriers). Not good odds just to shoot down a few planes, especially in 1942.

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Looking ahead (likely post-1942).....

It is almost certain that any kind of Allied comeback will involve sending the U.S. carrier fleet into the type of action I described in the last paragraph. This battle would probably coincide with a U.S. amphibious attack. I'm basically viewing this scenario as inevitable - the only details to be determined are when this battle happens and where.

To improve chances of any Allied victory in this action, time may be the only good option.

1) 10/42 Allied ship upgrades - I will need every bit of flak my carrier TF's can throw up against what will be coming at them (Jap land-based air within range combined with the KB). Improved radar might help my CAP too. Get as many ships upgraded to 10/42 level as possible.

2) Torpedo dud rate going down in 1943. Gives me a sub fleet (more than just the S-class boats) that can actually sink something instead of just patrol and lay mines. The torpedoes my TBF's carry will count for something too. I have to be able to seriously damage or sink ships when I hit them, as often as possible. Every hit needs to count in a battle - no room for duds.

3) Arrival of Essex-class CV's. The closer I get to the time I start getting more CV's, the quicker any carrier losses I take (and there will be some, if not many) get replaced. A shorter time interval between the first wave of U.S carriers and the second wave may just allow the second group of U.S. carriers to arrive in time to exploit any successes the "first wave" accomplishes before the Japs have an opportunity to recover.

[Feinder]

Ihave seen where, with that more durabel mod, it -is- more difficult for the Allied player (given that his major point potential is for AC losses).  Unfortunatley, there's not much I can suggest to get around that, since you're fighting the game itself at this point.
 
If you've still got it, build up Noumea (its worth like 1800 points fully built), and HOLD it. 
 
You can get quite a few points on hunting subs as well.  Find them, and posecute them to utmost.  If doesn't deploy them, oh well, you're SOL.
 
Still, try to bring him to battle in Burma then (air-to-air).  Or move your RAF into China.  I know what you're saying about base ranges, it is tough.  Demolish anything within 14 hexes, you're B-24s will be coming on-line soon.  You can litterally create a 14-hex DMZ.  Kill every plane by bombing the snot out of every AF within 14 hexes.
 
-F-

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 7/16/42

Central Pacific: U.S. sub Argonaut laid another load of mines in Kwajalein - Jap PC Ch 8 promptly hit one and sank. One less enemy critter on ASW patrol.

Japanese AP Halosaki Maru sinks near Baker Is after it was shelled and torpedoed on 7/11 by U.S. sub Grunnion at Gardner Is during the Jap landing there.

The normal Jap carrier aircraft patrols reported by U.S. submarines at Kwajalein, Canton, and Pago Pago.

Japanese ground forces (143 IJN Base Force) captures and occupies Sidney Is. Sidney Island is a dot hex - it is expected to be built up as primarily an airfield for Jap land based air to cover Canton Is.


South Pacific: The small Japanese surface combat TF that intercepted the U.S. TK Topila on 7/15 attacked a second TK in the same area. AAR and map follows. Both TK Topila and the second TK (below) were westbound to Australia carrying fuel points as cargo.

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Night Time Surface Combat at 112,146

Japanese Ships
DD Chidori
DD Manazuru
PG Ukishima Maru

Allied Ships
TK Paco, Shell hits 14, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage

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[wneumann]

More Operations from 7/16/42

Australia: Two Japanese air raids on Daly Waters - one airfield attack (light casualties and damage), the second raid a ground attack on 4 Australian Division (moderate casualties).

Burma/India: All sectors reporting quiet.

China: Japanese ground offensive against Changsha. AAR follows.

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Ground combat at Changsha

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 2548 troops, 39 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1530
26th, 39th, 60th & 70th Infantry Divisions, 2 Mtn Gun Rgt, 6 FA Rgt
Defending force 29906 troops, 116 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 833
10th & 32nd Chinese Corps, 27th Chinese Guerilla Corps, HQ 1st Group Army

Allied ground losses:
241 casualties reported
Guns lost 5

[wneumann]

Feinder,
 
Noumea's already gone. I got completely thrown off in the South Pacific. Pillager went after the U.S. to Australia shipping route very quickly in our game, between that and "rookie mistakes" I never really had any chance of getting U.S. reinforcements down there.
 
I have had some success going after Jap subs - and he's sending them. 14 confirmed sunk so far, at least the same number either heavily damaged or possibly sunk (without confirmation).
 
I've been very slowly picking off other ships - some of them torpedoed by subs, others mined. Mines seem to be one of my better weapons in 1942 and been laying as many of them as possible.
 
Aside from whatever I can do with what I have now... Patience is pretty much my best option. I can see myself playing on past a Jap auto victory with a decent chance of making an Allied comeback. Would also allow me some experience with playing the Allies during 1943-45. There's still the satisfaction of winning that battle even after already having "lost" the PBEM according to the victory point count in Jan '43.  
 
It's more worthwhile than doing a "two-minute football drill" in Nov-Dec '42 where I throw all my carriers into a big naval battle just to keep the VP ratio below a Jap auto victory.       

[ctangus]

I don't recommend a "two-minute football drill" either, but I think you still have a good chance to avoid auto-victory. You're not that far off. Like Feinder said, air losses are the biggest sponge. Even if you suffer 2:1 losses you're still closer to avoiding auto-victory.

Like you mentioned there's not many places other than Burma/India where you can currently engage him in the air. You can change that though - it's likely all his So Pac/SW Pac holdings are very lightly defended. The Japs only get so many LCUs. Collate your sigint with something like Bodhi's utility.

If I were in your shoes I'd study my sigint, look for the weakest area, and plan an offensive against one of four areas. I'd suggest bringing at least 3 divisions, a ton of supplies and a ton of Seabees in the intital wave. Here's where I see you potentially have opportunities:

1. Fijis: Pago-Pago -> Uplou -> Savaii -> Ellice Island -> Gilberts. Once you get your initial foothold you can slowly & gradually claw your way up under LBA cover.

2. Noumea: It's worth a buttload of points to you & you can also claw your way into the New Hebrides from there. Slightly harder than the Fijis since the ranges are mostly longer.

3. Port Moresby/New Guinea: Slightly hard to supply an offensive in this theatre, but there's oodles of potentially useful airfields for you here once you get a foothold. Almost certainly the Japanese will contest it - giving you attrition warfare which works in your favor.

4. Koepang/Timor. It's the hardest of all for you to supply, but the closest to the SRA - almost certainly would force the Japanese to come out & fight.

Whatever you do, good luck!

[Feinder]

It's not a solution, only consolation, but I feel your pain. This is my first CHS game, and things "are a bit different". I take no shame in having Northern Oz lost in my game. I litterally had guys moving north from 12-08, nad they still hadn't made it to even Alice Springs by the time he landed at Darwin.

Point being, in your own game, you can absolutely nothing wrong, and even do everything right, and some things are still going to be inevitible. If he wants Noumea, it's just there for taking as it's a phyical impossability to get anyone there for some time.

Since points are a concern for you, you might consider whatever counter-attack you do, at the higher point bases. As in Pago and Tonga are worth more than Upulo etc. Suva is worth more than Pago, and Noumea is worth more than Suva.

And if you can't bring him to fight in the air, make sure you conserve your troops. Again, troop losses will be what costs the game, more so than if you lose every flight deck in your arsenal.

But as you said...

Patience.

Again, I don't really think you're up against a wall yet. I'd say your point situation bears "some consideration", but the year's only half over. And there are always the strokes of completely accidnetal luck (look at the Hibiki AAR, Vicky put down 1, maybe 2 IJN CVs all by herself on accident - she was transferring back for recall).

[wneumann]

Thanks Feinder & ctangus.

I'm thinking my best course is attack when I'm ready to attack, and attack at the most favorable opportunity that presents itself. The most favorable opportunity may not be the best one from a VP standpoint, nor may that opportunity appear in time or reap enough VP to prevent a Jap auto-victory.

If I can avoid a Jap auto victory, I will. Not impossible, just that the odds are bit less than 50-50.

There are several things I'm considering as I'm playing (actually applies in some way to any other historical wargame).

20-20 hindsight. Any Japanese player more than semi-intelligent is going to avoid all the Japanese mistakes. In most PBEM's and face-to-face games there isn't going to be a Miracle at Midway. Maybe playing vs the Jap AI will give you a Midway of some kind, any competent Japanese human opponent will not.

Since a Japanese human opponent isn't making the historical Japanese mistakes, balance in the game will lean a little towards the Japanese player especially in the early going. Not a fault of the game system. With the advantage of hindsight a decent Japanese player with any level of historical knowledge is going to achieve somewhat better than historical results in at least one or more areas. Hindsight is a major weapon in the arsenal of any competent Japanese player that's familiar with WWII in the Pacific.

As an Allied player, you almost have to take it for granted a competent Japanese (human) opponent is not going to hand you a historical mistake (i.e. Midway) on a platter. That in itself makes the game more of a challenge for an Allied player than what the Allies faced historically.

My approach going into this PBEM was to trade space (territory) for enough time to gather my forces. Okay... so I gave up a bit too much territory, and a bit too many VP in the process. That's my hindsight for the next WitP match I'm in.


My impression of this game so far is that Pillager and I seem to be a fairly even match as opponents. With all the ground Pillager has taken, there has to be weak spots in the Japanese defense, and probably many of them. There's going to be a right time and place for me to attack, probably won't happen until into '43 (too late to avoid the auto-victory).

From here, I can see this match as a 1943 historical scenario with the following "what ifs"

1) The Japanese concentrated on a more aggressive advance eastward in the Pacific.

2) The Japanese recognizing that once the British were pushed back into India, they could be ignored as long as Hitler kept them tied down in Europe. Basically the same way the Japs viewed the Russians facing across from them in Manchuria.

3) Yamamoto himself viewed the U.S. as the most dangerous opponent to Japan, and concentrated most of the Japanese war effort against the U.S.

4) The Japanese making a move to deny Australia as a jumping off point for future Allied counterattack. Actually they did attempt this via Port Moresby. Pillager has done this in our PBEM, the only difference being he went via Darwin instead of Port Moresby. If the Japs had invaded Darwin historically, good chance they would have had the same level of success as Pillager accomplished.

5) Midway and Coral Sea never happened. The Japs didn't lose any carriers. However, neither did I.

6) Another interesting thing about this PBEM. The great "decisive" naval battle that both the U.S. (in Plan Orange) and the Japanese were anticipating in their war plans is more likely to occur in this game as projected in the pre-war plans. Oddly enough I am reading a book about Plan Orange as we speak.


My goal for the remainder of this PBEM is to reach the same level of victory in '45 as the Allies did historically, coming back from the current situation in July '42. To do this I basically have to disregard the VP situation. Is this goal possible? I think so.

Except for the Allied ground units I was going to lose anyway (in Malaya, DEI, and Philippines), my forces are virtually intact. The Prince of Wales and Repulse are still afloat, the Dutch fleet is still around, many of the auxilaries and transport ships the Japs historically sunk in the early war are afloat as well. And fully operational. Many of them now in the U.S. or Aden. Most of the AP's that were in Australia have moved to either Aden or the U.S. where they can be effectively used for amphibious ops.

All but one of the Indian infantry brigades "lost" at Singapore are in various stages of rebuilding in India. Both the Australian Brigades initially in Malaya are rebuilding in Australia. A number of U.S. ground units from the Philippines are around as well - 4th Marines, 31 RCT now on the front lines in Australia; two USAAF Base Forces also evacuated to Australia; one U.S. engineer unit, a Naval Base Force unit, and a Philippine infantry rgt rebuilding in the U.S. A Marine CD Unit (7th) rebuilding from a cadre in the U.S. - this LCU was "destroyed" at Pago Pago. About 15-20 Dutch air and naval base units still around. Small Australian units pulled out of Rabaul and New Guinea before the hammer fell. Pillager will see them all again.

I'm collecting my weapons and collecting more of them. Now it's a matter of the best time and place to strike.

I have been shipping out as many U.S. LCU's as possible as quickly as possible - to the point Hawaii is sinking under the weight of them. Six divisions already there, a seventh one soon joining them. The three U.S. west coast divisions (7th, 40th, 41st) are a "wild card" - they can either go join the others in Hawaii or head for India. Once I have a stash of 8-9,000 PP on hand, those divisions can end up somewhere very suddenly. I don't need to spend very many PP right now, makes this kind of stash quite attainable.

Many U.S. air units are still in the states. Plan to leave most of them there until I know exactly which ones I want and where I want them. Most likely bring them forward in the last days before the Allied offensive begins.

Bases... Building up the Line Islands as a jumping off point. Also been creeping forward in the Aleutians (haven't mentioned this before now). The northern strategy hasn't been excluded.

I have things to play with here. Jap auto-victory or not.