I come on these boards to have fun, share a good laugh, poke fun at people, laugh at their misfortunes etc. So yes, I did poke fun at Ara and his "INSANE MADNESS!!!!" posts over losing 200 people or something. I would probably do it again.
Let's just say your definition of "poking fun at people" comes too close to my definition of "mocking" for me to agree with what you're saying here, that you were just having a laugh.
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OK, now that all of this is over with, getting back to the AAR might be a good idea.
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Altaris: I am, of course, not Q-Ball, but having tested the 1942 campaign, where Soviet units are basically of a worse quality than they'll be in Q-Ball's game, I can comment on what he can at the least expect.
-For starters: even with mediocre Rifle divisions in level 3 or so forts, Axis casualties will be significantly higher than in 1941. On average losses will be around 700-1000 men per attack at the least against enemies in forts, especially when the VVS shows up.
-Massed Il-2 strikes against mobile forces are really ugly for the Germans, fairly easily adding about 500-1000 casualties if there are hundreds Il-2's and/or fighter bombers or halfway decent level bombers.
-The Soviets will regain something resembling mobile formations. The earliest Tank corps is only a small improvement over a Tank brigade by itself, but it can take attachments and its TOE upgrades too a respectable TOE in July, before the German summer offensive really gets going. Even with about 50 experience/morale, some 200 AFV's (with attached Tank battalions) in each Tank corps can cause a few ugly surprises for the Axis. The Soviets have plenty of short ranged level bombers that are not good for much else than flying supply missions, so transporting fuel is much less of an issue for them than for the Germans, even though the Soviets lack transport units. As such, with a decent leader the Tank units should have fairly good (~40 MP's) each turn and should thus be capable of making one or even two deliberate attacks.
-As you can see in Q-Ball's screenshots, German formations (aside from mobile formations) are not what they were pre-blizzard. Whereas infantry divisions are difficult to attack pre-blizzard, the Soviets can attack the ~6-7 CV infantry divisions fairly easily in summer 1942, slowing down progress even further.
-Provided the Soviets don't screw up with training and sending replacements to the right units, most Soviet units should be ready and should be capable of attacking. Guards and shock army units are capable of launching pretty good attacks and especially Guards won't rout easily.
-Attacking is going to be costly, so a limited offensive, aimed at creating pockets with a strong ring around them (and when I say strong, I mean strong, if you place a Panzer division's regiment to prevent a breakout it will get whacked) is probably the way to go. You should forget about deep strikes, they're just not economical in terms of forces applied/casualties taken and caused/gains.