MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

You fans of the BEF aren't going to like this. Germany decided it was time for a little retribution against the Commonwealth for disturbing its plans with its lucky attacks last impulse, so it sent its last available LND on a Ground Strike mission -- against the BEF!

Poor Gort and one of his companions did not fair well, I'm afraid. This might well lead to the end of the BEF, and not in a return trip home, I'm afraid.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

You fans of the BEF aren't going to like this..............Poor Gort and one of his companions did not fair well, I'm afraid. This might well lead to the end of the BEF, and not in a return trip home, I'm afraid.

Warspite1

That's a jolly poor show old boy! [;)]

[composer99]

Nah, 1 stack on the BEF isn't enough. In fact, ground-striking the BEF was probably a bad idea - 'twould have been better to ground strike one of the French stacks in front of Paris.

I think the French did the right thing with the moves: offer up the Germans cherries to pick on the periphery (the Lyons MIL, Lille) and behind the lines (Metz) in order to keep them from going for the Parisian cake in the centre. Hopefully long enough for bad weather to come back or the turn to end...

[Extraneous]

Red Prince summary

Initial US Entry Chits:
2 to Germany/Italy Entry Pool: (2238 [4], 2075 [3])
1 to Japanese Entry Pool: (2688 [4])

Impulse: 1
120% Germany DOW Poland (CW); USE-8 (+1 chit, 2345 [3])
30% Japanese aligned Siam; USE-1 (+1 chit, 2698 [4]
20% Japanese entered Ichang; USE-1 (+1 chit, 1279 [2])
30% And you're not going to believe this . . . taking Changsha: USE-1 (+1 chit, 32 [0])
200% Increase in chits

Impulse: 2
Germany/Italy Pool: (3, 3, 4)
120% CW DOW Germany; USE-8 (-1 chit, 2 of 3 [3])
120% Removal of chits
Germany/Italy Pool: (3, 4)

Impulse: 3
70% Italy DOW France; USE-7 (+1 chit, 751 [1])
30% Germany DOW Denmark (CW); USE-8 (no chit)
30% Germany DOW Netherlands (CW); USE-8 (no chit)
30% Germany DOW Hungary (CW); USE-10 (no chit)
20% Japanese moves its MAR Division into Pakhoi, then on to Nanning; USE-6 (no chit)
180% Increase in chits

Impulse: 4
Germany/Italy Pool: (1, 3, 3, 4)
90% USSR DOW Persia (Ja); USE-1 (-1 chit, 1 of 3 [1])
70% USSR moves the CAV from Minsk to the forest SW of Vilna; USE-8 (no chit)
160% Removal of chits
Germany/Italy Pool: (3, 4)

Impulse: 5
70% Italy DOW CW; USE-3 (+1 chit, 2898 [4])
80% Germany DOW Belgium (CW); USE-6 (+1 chit, 770 [1])
140% Increase in chits

Impulse: 9
20% . . . including taking Nanyang with MOT; USE-9 (no chit)
20% Attack on Chengchow: Assault, Fractional Odds .509 (No); Roll = 8 = */2S; USE-7 (no chit)
40% Increase in chits

End of Turn:
USA drew 1 marker to the Japanese Entry Pool (3003 [5])

Possible increase in chits: 200 + 180 + 150 + 140 + 40 = 710 (7.1 chits)

Possible chits removed: 120 + 160 = 280 (2.8 chits)

710% possible Increase in chits – 280% possible chits removed = 430 (4.3 chits) possible Increase in number of chits

3 starting chits + 4.3 possible Increase in number of chits + 1 end of turn chit = 8.3 total possible number of chits

8.3 total possible number of chits x 2.33 average per chit = total possible average value of chits 19.3


200 + 180 + 150 + 140 + 40 = 710% possible additions (7.1 chits)
120 + 160 = 280% possible removals (2.8 chits)

The possible additions to the Entry Pools went 7 out of 13
The possible removals from the Entry Pools went 2 of 3


Actual chits drawn
Germany/Italy (1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 4) total value of Germany/Italy actual chits drawn 16
Japanese (0, 2, 4, 4, 5) total value of Japanese actual chits drawn 10
Total value of Germany/Italy and Japanese actual chits drawn 26

Actual chits removed
Germany/Italy (1, 3) total value of removals 4 (2 chits x 2.33 average per chit = average total value of removals 4.66)
Japanese (None)

Adjusted total value of chits
Germany/Italy additions (1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 4) - Germany/Italy removals (1, 3) = (1, 3, 4, 4)
Japanese additions (0, 2, 4, 4, 5) - Japanese removals (None) = (0, 2, 4, 4, 5)
Total value of Germany/Italy and Japanese chits 27 - total possible average value of chits 19.3 = difference in total values and possible average values of chits +7.7

Average Germany/Italy Entry Pool (2.33 x 4 = 9.32)
Germany/Italy Entry Pool (1, 3, 4, 4) total value of chits 12 (average value of a chit is 3)

Average Germany/Italy Entry Pool (2.33 x 5 = 11.65)
Japanese Entry Pool (0, 2, 4, 4, 5) total value of chits 15 (average value of a chit is 3)

Germany/Italy Entry Pool (1, 3, 4, 4): (12 x 1.5 = 18) + (11 x 0.5 = 5.5) = 23.5 rounded to 24.
Japanese Entry Pool (0, 2, 4, 4, 5): (15 x 1.5 = 22.5) + (12 x 0.5 = 6) = 28.5 rounded to 29.

Average Germany/Italy Entry Pool (2.33 x 4): (9.32 x 1.5 = 13.98) + (11.62 x 0.5 = 5.81) = 19.79 rounded to 20.
Average Japanese Entry Pool (2.33 x 5): (11.62 x 1.5 = 17.34) + (9.32 x 0.5 = 4.66) = 22.


US entry options:
USA chooses Relocate Fleet to Pearl Harbor (Ja-6); USE-3 (1 chit moved, 3 of 5 [4])
USA chooses Occupy Greenland and Iceland (Ge/It-9); USE-4 (1 chit moved, 2 of 4 [3])

Germany/Italy tension Pool (3): (3 x 1.5 = 4.5) + (4 x 0.5 = 2) = 6.5 rounded to 7
Japanese tension Pool (4): (4 x 1.5 = 6) + (3 x 0.5 = 1.5) = 7.5 rounded to 8.


Turn 2:
Germany/Italy Entry (4, 4, 1) = (9 x 1.5 = 13.5) + (11 x 0.5 = 5.5) = 19.
Japanese Entry (0, 2, 4, 5) (11 x 1.5 = 16.5) + (9 x 0.5 = 4.5) = 21.


Summary:

The United States, although worried about the conflict in Europe, is seriously alarmed about the aggressive actions of the Japanese.

Relocating the Pacific Fleet to Pearl Harbor, Territory of Hawaii in an attempt to stem Japanese aggression.


Actual values of chits drawn were above average (26 - 19.3 difference of 6.7).
Actual values of chits removed were less than average (4 - 4.66 difference of 0.66).

Actual values of Germany/Italy Entry Pool is higher than average (24 - 20 a difference of 4).
Actual values of chits moved to Germany/Italy tension pool were less than average (3 - 4.66 a difference of 1.66).

Actual values of Japanese Entry Pool is higher than average (29 - 22 a difference of 7).
Actual values of chits moved to Japanese tension pool were less than average (4 - 5 a difference of 1).

[Red Prince]

Bad news, my friends, if you are rooting for France. Germany took the bait, but it doesn't look like it's going to help too much. In all, the Axis are going to make 6 attacks this impulse, all of them at 4:1 odds or better. And 4 of those attacks are in France: Lille, Metz, the Lyons MIL, and the 2-stack NW of the Lyons MIL. I'm too tired to finish this up right now. Perhaps later this evening, but it looks like Germany doesn't really have to choose just yet which direction it wants to go -- Vichy or conquest. Sure, some very bad rolls could hurt the Germans, but probably not too much, and from the Axis perspective, US Entry means Vichy wouldn't get declared this turn, even if they controlled Paris, so disorganized units right now aren't too much of a concern.

Speaking of bad rolls . . . Japan took only 2 of those 3 cities, because the infamous '1' showed up again in the USE rolls:

Japan moves into Hengyang; USE-7 (no chit, Oil captured)
Japan takes Kweilin; USE-1 (+1 chit, 155 [1])
Japan moves up to, but not into Tungkwan

The real push is in the South, anyway, so there was no point in taking Tungkwan just yet. If the Communists want to defend it, fine. If not, it can be taken later. Fortunately the chit was also a 1, so not much damage done. (Things are evening out a little for chit draws).

Unfortunately, as China, I made an error. A big one, maybe. I placed the CAV where it is, thinking it would be a safe link in the supply chain for HQ-I Chiang. I should have (as China) counted the nearby attack factors and figured out what could be done with them. As you can see, the CAV is under attack, at 4:1 odds. The Chinese will need a small miracle to keep those other units in supply. Looks like the retreat from both cities was a bad idea, after all.

[composer99]

One of the units will have to move while out of supply to re-establish the supply chain, which should allow the othre 3 to continue retreating in good order.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

One of the units will have to move while out of supply to re-establish the supply chain, which should allow the othre 3 to continue retreating in good order.

The real problem is that HQ-I Chiang has only 2 movement points, so the only way he can retreat without being disorganized is if the weather stays Fine. It might have been wiser to make a stand at Hengyang, where the oil was. If he gets disorganized now, he stays that way until the Allies can get an Oil Point to the Chinese.

[Red Prince]

Here are the 6 attacks I was talking about last night. I'll edit in the results once I've run through them. HQ-I Billotte attempted to provide HQ Support for the highlighted attack, but failed. Also, the attack on Lille is at +1 and has a 50/50 chance of moving up to the 5:1 CRT.

HQ-I Yamamoto also attempted to provide HQ Support for the attack on the Chinese CAV, but he also failed.



And the results:

Attack on Lille: Assault, Fractional Odds .413 (Yes), Roll = 10+1 = 11 = */2S
Attack on France [55, 30]: Blitz, Roll = 8+2 = 10 = */2B
Attack on France [56, 31]: Blitz, Roll = 7 = */2B
Attack on Marseilles: Assault, Roll = 6 = */2S (2 x BB, 1 x CL Escaped; 1 x BB, 1 x CA Destroyed; BB Provence, CA Dupleix Captured) -- 3 French ships rebase to Nice
Attack on Metz: Assault, Fractional Odds .323 (Yes), Roll = 4 = -/1S (Not Converted, 4-1 GARR destroyed, attackers disorganized)
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Edit: In retrospect, I should have converted this result to a Retreat, since the unit would have been isolated and unable to reorganize at the end of the turn. All I can say is that I'm still learning how to do things correctly. That's twice now I've done it backwards, but at least I now have an example of what not to do for both sides of the situation.
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Attack on China [87, 139]: Assault, Roll = 4 = -/1 (disorganized)

Very bad for France. Not too good for the BEF either. This is why I hit the BEF with the Ground Strike. I figured out that I really didn't need the extra die modifiers against the French. The last strong French stack also has an AA, and if they wanted to, the could have used it against the German LND -- but not if it was attacking only CW units. I was not expecting the rolls to go this well in the German's favor, but as it stands, they should be able to eliminate the BEF one way or another, either by direct attack or by putting them out of supply and then rolling right over them (depending on what the 7-4 MOT does).

[Red Prince]

Here is a look at the new French front (if you can call it that). Germany does now have a few units OOS, but the Allies can't exploit that, and both Rundstedt and von Leeb are nearly into the fight. Of course, von Bock is probably just sneering at them, and saying something like "who needs you?"

There are still a few tough hexes the Axis will need to take if it wants to go for conquest, and that shattered GARR will be coming back at the start of next turn -- making a nice addition to either Lyons or a defender for Toulouse. It all depends on what the Allies prefer -- Vichy or France conquered. Germany can still make either happen and still keep both options open -- Close the Med, or a '40 Barbarossa. Of course, the weather might have some say in the matter.

If the Allies do lose this game, in spite of the high US Entry so far, they can definitely blame the early good weather. With only 1 bad weather roll (to this point) in the first 2 turns, there really wasn't much the Allies could do to save France.
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Edit: On another note, if the US wants to get its hands on the CV Bearn, France needs to hold Paris until the end of this turn, and if the US doesn't want it, then the Bearn is going to have to RTB anyway, in case Germany has a chance to declare Vichy. It would probably return to Bordeaux, that being the least likely port to get overrun this turn.

[Red Prince]

Correct me if I'm wrong (and I'm sure you will [;)] ), but the way I see it, the CW MOT must move into Boulogne to maintain supply and block that route of advance, Georges needs to swap with the 6-4 INF and the AA Division, and Billotte needs to move into Paris. There is just no way to prevent a breakthrough into the hex NW of Paris, unless George moves there instead and abandons the 5-4 INF to its doom. That may be the better choice, but either way, Paris is in danger very very soon.

[Red Prince]

Slight reprieve for the Allies. The new weather roll makes things a little more difficult for Germany and Italy, and will allow HQ-I Chiang to retreat safely.

More importantly, the turn can't last much longer, and the Allies will hopefully not have to shift the initiative in favor of the Axis (unless the are unlucky or choose to try to end the turn ASAP). Also, if this is the last weather roll for N/D '39, there is no chance of Fine weather to begin J/F '40.

I don't think it would be wise (but I could be wrong), but if all of the Allies pass now, there's a 50% chance of ending the turn. If not, the Axis will have a 60% chance after their impulse, and then the Allies are virtually certain to end things after that.

So, it seems that despite the spectacular weather, France will almost certainly survive into 1940.

[Klydon]

It would appear the damage is done to France however. I don't think bad weather in J/F is going to save them. Hot dice for the Germans on combats if they get to take advantage of it. If the Germans are going to go Barbarrosa 40, they are going to have to decide on their builds very soon or start Barbarrosa 40 weak on the ground.

[Red Prince]

As much as I'd like to Close the Med, I'm thinking that Vichy and a '40 Barbarossa may be the best option. I don't really know, so I'm very happy to hear what everyone thinks about this.

I would like to take out the BEF, if only to force the CW to rebuild those units, which takes both time and a good number of BP that they'd prefer to spend on new units.

[composer99]

As long as the Axis don't get a ZoC on the hex in between Paris & Rouen, the BEF can trace supply to the Bay of Biscay.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

As long as the Axis don't get a ZoC on the hex in between Paris & Rouen, the BEF can trace supply to the Bay of Biscay.

So I should move Georges to that hex and leave the 5-4 INF as a sacrifice. But what about the CW 7-4 MOT? Does he move? or does he stay to bolster the stack?

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: composer99

As long as the Axis don't get a ZoC on the hex in between Paris & Rouen, the BEF can trace supply to the Bay of Biscay.

So I should move Georges to that hex and leave the 5-4 INF as a sacrifice. But what about the CW 7-4 MOT? Does he move? or does he stay to bolster the stack?

2 logic branches here:
Paris isn't taken this turn & Paris is taken this turn.

If Paris falls, the French units all go away with only the BEF of any value to the Allied side.

If Paris doesn't fall immediately, then it will soon and delaying that as long as possible is the only thing the Allied side cares about. But again, once it falls, only the BEF units are of any interest.

The 7-4 motorized should move to Rouen. Being in a city that can only be attacked from 1 hex gives it a reasonable chance of surviving. TRS units should be ready for embarkation when Paris falls. The other British units are dead unless the turn ends. If the turn does end, then the other 2 British units can eventually join their friend in Rouen - unless holding onto Paris a little longer is possible.

Leave enough units in Paris to prevent it being taken by the Germans from a single hex attack. But be aware that it would be nice to have reinforcements arrive in Paris. Defending the hexes adjacent to Paris is the highest priority for the French units. At this point, a two hex attack on Paris is almost certain death for the French.

The mountain unit must move into Vichy. Keeping the Germans contained in the north is more important than keeping the Italians contained.

I think Paris just has 2 air units if I remember correctly. In that case shifting Georges to the hex NE of Paris, BIllottte to Paris, and swinging the 6-4 around to the hex SE of Paris evens the line. It appears the hex the German 2-6 is in will remain OOS, so the Germans will only have a 1 hex attack on the 6-4 (because of the river).

These are all desperate measures.

[Centuur]

About a Barbarossa 1940... Do you have enough units available to crack the garrison ratio? That will be very high, since all Russian units are doubled in Garrison value...
Now, if I was the USSR, I'm a little worried about the way things are going in France. So, I'm want to build as many land units as possible (I never build any aircraft, since they are to expensive) and stuff the border. I'm not going to claim the Finnish Borderlands, to prevent the Germans from adding more minor units to his garrison ratio. So USSR builds are: INF, CAV, MECH (in that order of business).
Now, I'm probably able to gather at least 20 land and aircraft units on the border around M/J 1940 (Zhukov included). Doubled for defensive garrison means 40. Add to this about 10 point of defensive markers, I'm than at 50. This means the Germans has to get at least 100 point from the garrison and there offensive markers. Good luck to Adolf (remember, Italians don't count...).
So comrades, we stay at the border untill N/D 1940 and start running away at that point (if things are looking very bad, garrison wise...).

So you're running the risk of the German army having to sit on the USSR border doing absolutely nothing for an entire year. Not a wise move...

However: look at you're first strategy: close the Med, it was. Now, let's assume France is going to get conquered (Vichy, Lyon, Rouen, Nantes, Paris and Toulouse are left now). I think that a good look at the Allied Production Circle is needed. How many French units can arrive in Toulouse in two turns? Only the French units around Paris and those that will arrive as reïnforcements are able to prevent you're moves to the south. Even the Italians can move now, since there aren't any units who can kill you're units available to the French. The BEF might be getting killed next turn, if Gort doesn't make a run for it...
At that point you're army is right at the Spanish border and ready to cross in it in 1940! Isn't that nice? So you might get a shot at Gibraltar end of 1940 (with luck...). Barbarossa 1941, I would aim for, with a closed Med in 1940.

Regarding you're question about the French movements possible. There isn't any defense at all possible to keep Paris under control much longer (since in Paris there's only the HQ and the airforce, isn't it). If you're committing all units there to defend Paris, you will get two attacks by the Germans. First an attack to clear away the stack NW of Paris and in the next impulse you're going to be killed in Paris.
Now, I think the time has come to make a decision. I would at this point rail Georges from Paris to Toulouse. Than I would put Billotte in Paris, together with the 6-4 INF and the gun. The 5-4 is going to stay in the hex as a sacrifice. If possible, rebase you're aircraft to the Toulouse area (I don't know if you've used them...). If you do not build a defense in the South of France now, you're likely to get conquered and that's not a very good position al all. Next turn, the railroads might be blocked by Axis forces. It only takes one impulse with fine weather and if that's happens it's a French conquest...

Now the British can stay put, however if the turn doesn't end, the BEF is going to get destroyed (OOS and isolated...). So it is better to move the MOT to Rouen and hope for the turn to end. You're than at least in supply and maybe you're able to move first next turn. This might save Gort...

So you see, I don't agree with my previous posters at all, since I'm worried about a French conquest, followed by an invasion of Spain.
Of course, if you're convinced that you're able to get a large enough garrison on the USSR-German border, things are different. However, count you're land units and count those of the Russians and you'll find that it isn't that easy to start a Barbarossa 1940...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

About a Barbarossa 1940... Do you have enough units available to crack the garrison ratio? That will be very high, since all Russian units are doubled in Garrison value...
Now, if I was the USSR, I'm a little worried about the way things are going in France. So, I'm want to build as many land units as possible (I never build any aircraft, since they are to expensive) and stuff the border. I'm not going to claim the Finnish Borderlands, to prevent the Germans from adding more minor units to his garrison ratio. So USSR builds are: INF, CAV, MECH (in that order of business).
Now, I'm probably able to gather at least 20 land and aircraft units on the border around M/J 1940 (Zhukov included). Doubled for defensive garrison means 40. Add to this about 10 point of defensive markers, I'm than at 50. This means the Germans has to get at least 100 point from the garrison and there offensive markers. Good luck to Adolf (remember, Italians don't count...).
So comrades, we stay at the border untill N/D 1940 and start running away at that point (if things are looking very bad, garrison wise...).

So you're running the risk of the German army having to sit on the USSR border doing absolutely nothing for an entire year. Not a wise move...

However: look at you're first strategy: close the Med, it was. Now, let's assume France is going to get conquered (Vichy, Lyon, Rouen, Nantes, Paris and Toulouse are left now). I think that a good look at the Allied Production Circle is needed. How many French units can arrive in Toulouse in two turns? Only the French units around Paris and those that will arrive as reïnforcements are able to prevent you're moves to the south. Even the Italians can move now, since there aren't any units who can kill you're units available to the French. The BEF might be getting killed next turn, if Gort doesn't make a run for it...
At that point you're army is right at the Spanish border and ready to cross in it in 1940! Isn't that nice? So you might get a shot at Gibraltar end of 1940 (with luck...). Barbarossa 1941, I would aim for, with a closed Med in 1940.

Regarding you're question about the French movements possible. There isn't any defense at all possible to keep Paris under control much longer (since in Paris there's only the HQ and the airforce, isn't it). If you're committing all units there to defend Paris, you will get two attacks by the Germans. First an attack to clear away the stack NW of Paris and in the next impulse you're going to be killed in Paris.
Now, I think the time has come to make a decision. I would at this point rail Georges from Paris to Toulouse. Than I would put Billotte in Paris, together with the 6-4 INF and the gun. The 5-4 is going to stay in the hex as a sacrifice. If possible, rebase you're aircraft to the Toulouse area (I don't know if you've used them...). If you do not build a defense in the South of France now, you're likely to get conquered and that's not a very good position al all. Next turn, the railroads might be blocked by Axis forces. It only takes one impulse with fine weather and if that's happens it's a French conquest...

Now the British can stay put, however if the turn doesn't end, the BEF is going to get destroyed (OOS and isolated...). So it is better to move the MOT to Rouen and hope for the turn to end. You're than at least in supply and maybe you're able to move first next turn. This might save Gort...

So you see, I don't agree with my previous posters at all, since I'm worried about a French conquest, followed by an invasion of Spain.
Of course, if you're convinced that you're able to get a large enough garrison on the USSR-German border, things are different. However, count you're land units and count those of the Russians and you'll find that it isn't that easy to start a Barbarossa 1940...

A few responses:

I took Steve's gameplan, and the Allies better hope to move first next turn . . . because the End of Turn Roll was unexpectedly a '2'. So, 1940 is down, The Germans are growling, because Gort and his cohort will get reorganized before there was a chance to attack and slaughter the bunch.

As before, this took me by surprise, so I'll have to give you the full end of turn details later. France ain't done yet. Soon, but not yet. This complicates both strategic options for the Axis.

In China, if the Axis had another impulse instead of having the turn end, it could again have put HQ-I Chiang OOS and isolated, but he'll survive for now. Also in the Allies favor is the fact that the next weather roll, to start of J/F '40, is going to be unpleasant for the Axis, no matter what.

I'll likely save the game before US Entry Options are chosen, so that I can show you what is available and then see what looks good.

[composer99]

I agree with Centuur's recommendations for French & CW forces. In addition, if the turn ends before the Axis goes again and the BEF gets to go first in Jan/Feb they should start relocating to Toulouse immediately.

In addition, with regards to the USSR garrison, the USSR can also build pilots (2 bp each) to fill out the planes in the Reserve pool, which each contribute 1 garrison point. This is a cost-effective way to add 12 garrison points in 1940 (6 points doubled).

Edit: Of course, Prince beats me to the punch by noting the turn ended.

[Red Prince]

Some basic stuff. Units destroyed in N/D '39: