Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel

[Q-Ball]

Do you guys have a HR against using the Malacca Strait before Singapore falls? Just curious.

My understanding is that the 15in guns in Singapore Fortress could reach the coast of Sumatra, which meant the Japanese could not transit.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

It is not the supply as Darwin is easily flanked in 42 and it is tough to get scarce Allied troops there in the early months. Also very tough on the Allies if those troops are wiped out. What I was referring to is the eventual Allied attempt to retake Darwin in 43-44. If Japan has three or four good divisons with support in Darwin then it is almost impossible for the Allied to supply the needed forces to eject them by a strictly overland advance. It almost has to be by sea. Yet if Japan only commits a division or two then the Allies can take the overland route and recapture Darwin. So in this case, I really think it is worth holding and even sacrificing a very substantial Japanese force around Darwin to hold it as long as possible. Two little and the Allies have it too easy, but a strong force might hold it well into 1944 depending on the state of the Japanese navy.

I think what you speak of is a Scenraio #2 problem? Because I am not sure there are the divisions to hold Burma, Attack Oz and NG while keeping China busy in Scenario #1? Just clarifying for the ages [8D]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Do you guys have a HR against using the Malacca Strait before Singapore falls? Just curious.

My understanding is that the 15in guns in Singapore Fortress could reach the coast of Sumatra, which meant the Japanese could not transit.

I have recently been in PM contact with Alfred on the issue of Singapore's history. He knows quite a bit, certainly more than I do. He does not read this AAR. But based on his comments I believe the devs leaving Malacca off the "narrow strait" list in the game code is the correct decision. The guns installed were for harbor denial. The various defense plans presented by the British government from 1919 on had underlying assumptions about force allocation for Singapore's defense which never came about due to budget cuts. Overall, the base was intended to be defended by a large naval force which was never detailed, supported by naval shore infrastructure which was never built. Once Force Z, a faint shadow of the original planned force, was sunk, the defense consisted of the TBs, weak as they were. Once Force Z was/is gone, the IJN could/can sail past Singapore into the IO with abandon. HRs which deny this are historically incorrect.

If anyone wants details perhaps a post in the main forum to Alfred would induce him to offer one of his succinct renditions of the facts.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Do you guys have a HR against using the Malacca Strait before Singapore falls? Just curious.

My understanding is that the 15in guns in Singapore Fortress could reach the coast of Sumatra, which meant the Japanese could not transit.

I have recently been in PM contact with Alfred on the issue of Singapore's history. He knows quite a bit, certainly more than I do. He does not read this AAR. But based on his comments I believe the devs leaving Malacca off the "narrow strait" list in the game code is the correct decision. The guns installed were for harbor denial. The various defense plans presented by the British government from 1919 on had underlying assumptions about force allocation for Singapore's defense which never came about due to budget cuts. Overall, the base was intended to be defended by a large naval force which was never detailed, supported by naval shore infrastructure which was never built. Once Force Z, a faint shadow of the original planned force, was sunk, the defense consisted of the TBs, weak as they were. Once Force Z was/is gone, the IJN could/can sail past Singapore into the IO with abandon. HRs which deny this are historically incorrect.

If anyone wants details perhaps a post in the main forum to Alfred would induce him to offer one of his succinct renditions of the facts.

I presume this means that the guns which were there IRL, if the had the range to cover the strait, were not installed to bear properly to do so?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Do you guys have a HR against using the Malacca Strait before Singapore falls? Just curious.

My understanding is that the 15in guns in Singapore Fortress could reach the coast of Sumatra, which meant the Japanese could not transit.

I have recently been in PM contact with Alfred on the issue of Singapore's history. He knows quite a bit, certainly more than I do. He does not read this AAR. But based on his comments I believe the devs leaving Malacca off the "narrow strait" list in the game code is the correct decision. The guns installed were for harbor denial. The various defense plans presented by the British government from 1919 on had underlying assumptions about force allocation for Singapore's defense which never came about due to budget cuts. Overall, the base was intended to be defended by a large naval force which was never detailed, supported by naval shore infrastructure which was never built. Once Force Z, a faint shadow of the original planned force, was sunk, the defense consisted of the TBs, weak as they were. Once Force Z was/is gone, the IJN could/can sail past Singapore into the IO with abandon. HRs which deny this are historically incorrect.

If anyone wants details perhaps a post in the main forum to Alfred would induce him to offer one of his succinct renditions of the facts.

I presume this means that the guns which were there IRL, if the had the range to cover the strait, were not installed to bear properly to do so?

Reading a bit after I posted, it appears there were a total of five 15in guns installed. They were the same model as found on HMS Hood; a post-WWI design. No HE ammunition was stocked, only armor-piercing. Three guns were on the site of the current airport (east), and two were on the western side of the Singapore Strait (Jahore Battery I believe.) Two had transverse capability of 180 degrees, while the other three had 360. Magazines were in armored bunkers beneath the gun emplacemnts, with a narrow-gauge railway connecting them to further ammo storage. I did not find any info on fire-control. I did not find anything about effectiveness at night, on moonless nights, or in heavy rains. None of the five 15in guns ever engaged a naval target in their life spans. There is some controversy about the fate of all of them, but some of the emplacements were destroyed by British engineers before the fall of the base, at least one so effectively that the magazine area was not discovered and excavated until 1991.

In addition to the heavy guns there were multiple 6in gun emplacements around the island, mostly focused on amphibious invasion denial.

Without knowing the FC capability of the five 15in guns I can't even begin to say how effective they would have been on a passing IJN force which hugged the Malaysian coast, or which attempted to run past at flank on a moonless night. Since it was never tried we'll never know. But I believe that leaving Malacca off the narrow strait list was not an accident, and a HR preventing such a move would . . . well, I'm not going into the rocks and shoals of HRs again. I am, after all, a mere AI-playing sub-human.

[Hortlund]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Do you guys have a HR against using the Malacca Strait before Singapore falls? Just curious.

My understanding is that the 15in guns in Singapore Fortress could reach the coast of Sumatra, which meant the Japanese could not transit.

We have no such houserule. But judging from comments from Canoe, he would frown upon any such movement. I have not sailed anything past there yet.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Do you guys have a HR against using the Malacca Strait before Singapore falls? Just curious.

My understanding is that the 15in guns in Singapore Fortress could reach the coast of Sumatra, which meant the Japanese could not transit.

We have no such houserule. But judging from comments from Canoe, he would frown upon any such movement. I have not sailed anything past there yet.

Don't do that anyway. I've found that, even if you can theorically pass, the AI tends to make your ships approach singapore shore guns even if you told them not to using waypoints....it's very risky imho

[Hortlund]

Maskirovka

I am now going to try to convince Canoerebel that I am about to invade Canada/Coal Harbor.

Most of my divisions are now ordered to plan for an invasion of Prince Rupert. Half of the KB is going to sail down the west coast looking for coastal shipping, perhaps I will launch an airstrike at some inland target.

I will also start moving most of my heavy surface combat vessels towards Japan. A huge convoy will gather in the port hex south of Manila to pick up most of the units there. I will then use [the secret method] to hide where they are going, while at the same time they will be given movement orders that takes them to the west coast.

Hopefully, the allied sigint will pick up some of these orders. Since they are sigint, Canoe will think they are "real". Especially if enough units are given the same orders.

[Hortlund]

Or perhaps a better Maskirovka is to fake a drive on Sydney/Melbourne.

You would have to be pretty over the top to send the entire Jap army to Canada in March 42...

[Hortlund]

This is just a fake post, in case Canoe spots the thread subject. I want him to think there is something huge in the making, but I dont want to talk about it or drop hints in emails. Thats just too obvious. Sigint, recon reports and other means are much better to create the impression something big is going on.

[Hortlund]

Think he will take the bait?

One of the best ways to have a Maskirovka succeed is to play into what the enemy is expecting.

For example, it would be very easy for me right now to trick Canoe into thinking an invasion of Singapore is imminent, simply because he expects me to invade there. So he will have an uncouncious confirmation bias, where he will interpret information to mean what he expects it to mean.

Now, the question is, where does he expect me to go with my army? Where would any Japanese player go at this point in the game? India or Australia of cource. So he will be looking for signs that the Japanese army is heading to India or Australia. Then the trick is to make him think Im going to one, while Im actually moving towards the other...

[GreyJoy]

How to play a mind-game, n'est pas?[:D]

[witpqs]

Well, after Moose's tests CR is well aware of where the line is for North America emergency reinforcements. The Seattle area has some very important aircraft factories. It is quite legitimate for him to worry about those being strat-bombed. If he were convinced you were staying behind the line while fixing to smoke some factories...

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: crsutton

It is not the supply as Darwin is easily flanked in 42 and it is tough to get scarce Allied troops there in the early months. Also very tough on the Allies if those troops are wiped out. What I was referring to is the eventual Allied attempt to retake Darwin in 43-44. If Japan has three or four good divisons with support in Darwin then it is almost impossible for the Allied to supply the needed forces to eject them by a strictly overland advance. It almost has to be by sea. Yet if Japan only commits a division or two then the Allies can take the overland route and recapture Darwin. So in this case, I really think it is worth holding and even sacrificing a very substantial Japanese force around Darwin to hold it as long as possible. Two little and the Allies have it too easy, but a strong force might hold it well into 1944 depending on the state of the Japanese navy.

Why do the Allies need to drive the Japanese out of there in 1944? By the time '44 rolls around, it's probably just as easy, if not easier, to land on Timor or some of those islands in the Banda Sea, and just isolate the Japanese in Darwin.

IMO, Japanese can hold it for awhile, but at a certain point you need to get out of there; it's a trap, long-term

You are right about this as sooner or later the Allied navy will be strong enough to bypass Darwin. My experience is with scen 2 so everything happens about six months later. But my point is that it can be held as long as you need if the garrison is big enough to prevent an overland attack.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Do you guys have a HR against using the Malacca Strait before Singapore falls? Just curious.

My understanding is that the 15in guns in Singapore Fortress could reach the coast of Sumatra, which meant the Japanese could not transit.

I have recently been in PM contact with Alfred on the issue of Singapore's history. He knows quite a bit, certainly more than I do. He does not read this AAR. But based on his comments I believe the devs leaving Malacca off the "narrow strait" list in the game code is the correct decision. The guns installed were for harbor denial. The various defense plans presented by the British government from 1919 on had underlying assumptions about force allocation for Singapore's defense which never came about due to budget cuts. Overall, the base was intended to be defended by a large naval force which was never detailed, supported by naval shore infrastructure which was never built. Once Force Z, a faint shadow of the original planned force, was sunk, the defense consisted of the TBs, weak as they were. Once Force Z was/is gone, the IJN could/can sail past Singapore into the IO with abandon. HRs which deny this are historically incorrect.

If anyone wants details perhaps a post in the main forum to Alfred would induce him to offer one of his succinct renditions of the facts.

Well, other factors too. The guns did not have radar direction so, a passage at night, or in poor weather with low visability would probably been possible. Just speculating. Without modern directors and radar a big gun was only as good as far as you could see.

Oops, just saw you later post.....Never mind...[;)]

[desicat]

Having actually sailed through the straits on a Carrier they are not very wide and there is little to no room for maneuver in the navigable channels.

The fact that the British guns were not targeting the strait was not a known fact at the time and not even the craziest Admiral would chance running a Battle Group through that gauntlet with the airfields in and around Singapore in enemy hands and operational.

The harbor defense guns could possibly have been discarded but any infantry artillery would have been able to be positioned to pound passing ships. Old fashioned fire ships or channel blockers COULD have been employed to create serious havoc.

Just because something was possible with the perfect knowledge of hindsight doesn't make it something that could be casually done without considering the risk and the unknowns in the present (game time).

[desicat]

Coast of Burma - Strategically significant and a possible jumping off point for further activities depending on Allied deployment. Since this is an adhoc offensive I would recommend against doing something that is out of line with your overall Strategic vision; i.e. establishing a defensive perimeter while taking out China. The below excerpt is from your first post laying out your Grand Strategic Vision:

"Actually I'm looking at China. Its the obvious target, it has plenty of resources and industry, although I would have to wade through Chinese army units to get there. But the benefits are obvious. I get to fight close to home, I dont need to own very much of the oceans to get there and home, the Chinese army is crap, so is their airforce.

Ive been sitting looking at the map for a couple of hours now, and it seems like the best strategy.

So, my very rough strategic plan would be:

1) Take the oilfields in the NEI.
2) Secure the SLOCs between NEI and Japan.
3) Ensure a level of industrial output that will allow us to produce enough combat units to carry the war beyond 1945

On the operational level these three broad strategic objectives would of cource be broken down into several sub-objectives. I'll get back to that later. These three strategic objectives can also be described as the three phases of this war. Expansion, consolidation and defence. I will want to achieve objectives 1&2 as soon as possible, as that will give me better chances to achieve 3."

Burma cuts the supply line to China long term and still brings your desired attrition battle with the RAF into play. Allows you to fall back and take isolated Allied positions if the way West is blocked.

May cause CR to commit naval assets to the theater for a fleet battle, pick off troops at Port Blair at a minimum and Ceylon if he is out of position. This will also force him to deploy assets to India no matter what your next step is. Delays the overall formation any Allied counter attack while he scuttles around setting defensive postures.

[Hortlund]

That is a very good point. It is too easy to get caught up in a percieved opportunity and risk too much for little strategic gain.

[Hortlund]

This is what Im thinking right now. I can throw 6-7 full-strength divisions at this.

[Historiker]

How far do you want to advance?