The Japanese have little choice, but even that makes for a hard decision.
Moving the fleet is required : it is necessary to reopen the supply lines to the continent : in good weather, the Chinese might cut through like cheese should they succeed in a ground strike ; and their air power is now up to the task!
The first question is : keep a low profile, send a single convoy and pray for the best ?
The second question is : do something in Korea or consider it utterly lost ?
The third question is : take the risk of meeting the US fleet, which is currently as small as it can be, the slow ships having been left in Brisbane because they could not make it to the 3 box, necessary for ship offensive support.
* question 1 depends on the two others actually
* question 2 : even though sending reinforcements in is likely a lost proposition, Korea cannot be given without more fight: sure, Seoul cannot be recaptured, but there is time to keep the most importan places before the country falls. It is too close to Japan, and looks too much like an unsubmersible aircraft carrier facing Japan to leave it without at least some combats.
* question 3 : moving the fleet to the North China sea seems logical to achieve the previous objective. The 3 box is accessible, but not for the transports, and it cannot be protected by the land base 7 rated fighter ; so the Japanese opt for the 1 box, where everything fits well.
Under these conditions, a fight against the USA should end up as well as possible: the conditions cannot be any better.
This will certainly change very fast: A new loas of 6 carriers arrived this turn in San Diego. 4 are essex class, 2 are exact copies of those that were sunk two years before... All are fast (6 movement rating) and boast modern aircrafts ; one of which is an 8 rated F8F-1.
In addition, one can expect planes to come to Seoul: the US may well also soon have land based fighter support, with ratings of 7 and 8.
Scary.
