Taming the Tiger or Slaying the Bear......loki100 (Axis) vs Speedy (SU)

[Speedysteve]

I'd tend to agree so far (for this particular operation of yours). I hope you carry on pushing tbh but let's see. If you take out 2 Corps and that floats your boat then a success it is [;)]

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Speedysteve

I'd tend to agree so far (for this particular operation of yours). I hope you carry on pushing tbh but let's see. If you take out 2 Corps and that floats your boat then a success it is [;)]

well I've started executing a few commanders to encourage the others to go for more ambitious goals:

[loki100]

T90 – March 1943

My esteemed opponent has made the perfectly correct observation that I tend to only post when I win something ... well its more a case of not seeing much merit in posting when not much is happening.

The key to me across all this phase was not to lose the initiative when I was vulnerable to the Soviets also meeting the auto-win target. I realise this is a case of setting the barrier low in terms of expectations but we are where we are. My best guess is the 1 April test point is the last time this could happen.

In VP terms not much has really happened, I've been dumping some SU into Italy and France and been rewarded with a VP here and there. Not exactly game changing but it all gives me just a little gap in terms of the risk of a very early end.

So I can't give up ground, I can't sustain a structured offensive and there is no point to being passively beaten by Rifle Corps and Artillery Divisions. So its a case really of using what I have.

Crudely all the front from Bryansk to Leningrad is relatively static. The Soviets take a hex every now and then, I'm constantly shuffling my lines (in part due to the French vacation divisions) and slot in the frest stuff arriving because e-Adolf has been convinced there is a desparate battle going on around Stalingrad.

Now my view is that the Ukraine is high risk for both sides. On one side, I can't supplement fortifications with terrain but the Soviets too are vulnerable. I've left a couple of gaps for them to come and explore and they seem very unkeen on the idea.

For a few turns, I simply accepted the loss of a hex here and there, fell back, refitted and reconstructed my lines. But in late Feb the Soviets tried to impose more pressure east of Orel. So the final week of February saw a counter-attack there and south of Kharkov.

I was also looking for potential pockets depending on the response.





Early March brought the response. E-Adolf really is gullible ... we'll tell him we need jet engined fighters next.



There is some discussion of the value of the LW come mid-42. My view is I'm still able to sweep the VVS from the skies (at a cost) and deliver a lot of disruptions to a chosen target.



So on review, the Soviets opted to not play at Orel but there were some Tank and Mech corps offered as a light repast near Kharkov.

After digesting their meal, the Panzers withdrew behind the screen of Hungarian formations.



overall losses



Current OOB, this stage is a bit of a pain with formations standing down, changing role etc.



Nothing to say about logistics. I've just completed repairing every rail hex I hold, every depot is full, if the front shows gaps I simply drop one of the rear priority 4 depots to pri 2 for a turn and it fills up again.

[loki100]

T92 – End March

Not so much an update as a discussion.

There are now two turns to the next VP test and the front lines are more or less where they have been since the loss of Orel.



So I need to lose another 47 VP (10% of 596 is 59, so a target of 537)..

Rather usefully the last patch changed the layout of the VP screen which makes the discussion a lot easier to follow.

Given where the front is, Kursk, Kharkov and Stalino are where the fighting is concentrated and feasibly could be lost. Of those Kursk is both directly in the front line and more vulnerable. Usefully, for this discussion alone, the Soviets have already had the +6 time bonus as I lost in the winter 41-42. So that alone is not enough (assuming no radical flow of VP from off map).

So even a complete disaster sees +42 change hand, which is not enough to trigger the initiative swap for April 43.



So its now a bit easier to work out what VP they will have.

As a start we add up the base value of the cities they hold now. That is 400. They then get the +10 time bonus for stuff they hold that I should have captured. By my count that is 42 (they already have the Orel – here they don't get the time bonus if they hold a city that never fell historically (such as Ryazan).

If so we are looking at a base VP of say 450 plus any additional captures.

If I'm interpreting this right – then oddly I have a bit more space than I thought I had. One good bit going forward is the few places I took, I mostly gained the +6 – Smolensk is the big exception but is some distance from the front.

So put that together gives me some protection against Soviet sudden death wins at least till mid-44. But there is no way can I use the HWM as a safety net. At the change the Soviets will have 527 VP (this is by definition, 450 off the current map + 47 to gain the initiative). That means they only need a further +50 to set the HWM test to one side. Clearing me out of the Dneipr bend and the Crimea alone will get them that.

There's a fair bit of guessing here, but my assumption is the terms of this game now are to keep the Soviets away from their auto-win points and worry about Berlin? Not a bad set up for the second half.



On the flip side, there is little I can do, I'd need to somehow take back 2 cities (+20) to push the HWM in my favour – I sort of start to see the attraction of a Kursk style gamble.

[loki100]

To develop this a bit, I think we can break the VP points into clusters.

In the north, the immediate batch is Helsinki, Pskov and Talinin. My assumption is these would be lost relatively quickly once the current front collapses as the line I'm holding is as good as it gets. But its not an easy front to go.

In the south, the trigger is going to be Kursk, Kharkov and Stalino. My assumption is that Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Sevastopol go fairly soon after.

Beneath that are a second tier of Riga, Smolensk, Minsk and Odessa. Smolensk is well defended but will go if I lose the eastern Ukraine, the others to have any chance I somehow need to hold into 1944.

Given the HWM discussion above, in a way the Balkans are only of value for the Soviet auto-win tests. In my AI game, Rumania became the pivot between the AI matching the HWM or not and that drove my choices, here its simply 60 VP (plus time bonuses etc) and the only criteria is that later is better than sooner - less for its own value and more because of what that would imply.

Playing the Soviets into this phase, its actually very hard to catch up with the auto win targets if you miss it around this point. It comes back into reach when you can grab the 30 VP targets on the southern half of the map.

[Hardradi]

Can both of you guys show us the Pilots Tab in the Air Doctrine Section so that we can see what your average Pilot Experience is?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Hardradi

Can both of you guys show us the Pilots Tab in the Air Doctrine Section so that we can see what your average Pilot Experience is?

not sure it tells you much - not least I have the Rumanian and Hungarian airforces hooked in the various Luftflotte



Pilot numbers - no problem



Experience and Morale of German AOGS




So, despite all the claims by some posters, seems as if you can manage to retain a powerful LW that you use substantially well into 1943. My guess is it won't be till the winter 43/44 that I start to see a serious hit on quality

[Hardradi]

Thanks loki. Yes, it does help.

In the first screenshot Luftflotte 4 has an average experience of 97 for Fighters. Amazingly high. I guess it shows me that the Luftwuffe Fighter crews will not get decimated in the first few years of the war. Even some of the other groupings have increased above the start positions. The level bomber groups and recon groups probably take the most losses and they are holding pretty steady.

Based on your losses a couple of pages back it looks like you havent been holding back too much with Air Support either.

[loki100]

I try to live within the trained pilot pool, so if I feel I am losing more than that I hold back for a turn or two.

Having played out an AI game into 1945, I became very aware that once you lose this inflection point things can get very bad very quickly - not least you have to send low exp formations to the reserve to train

my feeling is the VVS is configured for this churn, the LW isn't

[Speedysteve]

ORIGINAL: Hardradi

Can both of you guys show us the Pilots Tab in the Air Doctrine Section so that we can see what your average Pilot Experience is?

Sure thing. Here's the wonderous VVS. Huzzah![;)]

[Hardradi]

Thanks speedy [:)]

So it looks like you might have had a small improvement in fighter experience and a small degradation in all the other categories.

[Speedysteve]

Yes. My main focus has been on the fighter units and allocating trained pilots to them....

So....we're upto mid-April 1943.As it's the 'unsettled' rainy season it's time to take stock and prepare for the year ahead. I have my plans and strategic aims.....the turns still take a lot of admin time....there's always lots to check and do such as unit placement, which units need to be rotated into refit, Corps creation, unit building, SU allocation, air unit movement (on and off map), air unit upgrades, ensuring the HQ structure is in the CP limits, depot management etc etc

I naturally can't share my plans for 1943 since the Abwehr is here but I can tell you this....the overall aim is to smash the Axis[;)]

Here's the north. The Front has remained largely static although I have pushed 10-30 miles westwards in many areas....tough terrain though so any fight here will be bloody and costly

[Speedysteve]

NW/Kalinin Front:

Not much to say here. Been pretty quiet. I did recover 10-30 miles in some areas (over the last 2 months) but the terrain is poor and the supply possibilities a challenge.

[Speedysteve]

Tula/Kursk Sector:

This area has seen some fluid fighting over the past few months. Loki has tended to fight back with vicious Panzer strikes to decimate local units or try to surround a few Comrades. I've just gradually pounded forward and in general the front is 30-70 miles further west that the start of the year. Orel is firmly in my hands again and local Vodka production has even returned there....huzzah!

[Speedysteve]

Kharkov Sector:

Pretty similar to the area to the north - fluid battles on the open terrain. I attack, Loki retakes. Loki attacks, retreats then I re-take. Frontlines have remained broadly static since the start of the year.

[Speedysteve]

In the South it's been real quiet. Loki did pull back from Gorlovka and Makeevka recently so Stalino is on the frontline now.

[Speedysteve]

Losses:

[Speedysteve]

OOB:

[loki100]

T100 – 16 May 1943

So given most games never get here, worth a discussion. Not least I suspect the relative stalemate since November is going to be ending soon.

So summary chart



VP situation is worth a discussion. I've actually gained a bit over recent turns due to excess garrisons. Some of this is by design as I have sent some AA stuff to the West for the VP and to lower the impact of the bombing but some is a result of one of the many bonuses the axis player gets.

In effect, not making historical mistakes really pays off. Not wrecking the Rumanian army at Odessa means the units that were released to replace the losses are actually released in addition. Here the units that go to France should be going as depleted shells, pulling down manpower and assets and not adding to the garrison requirement. Mine are going off at high TOE so not only do I get the resources on map I also gain VP.

There are more of these to come, most eggregious (in my mind) related to the Finland rules.

On map, nothing to say for the northern half. Steady stream of Soviet attacks, most fail, every now and then I adjust my lines. For the moment I can just about cycle cut up units in/out of the front lines.



Situation in the south, my original front is fraying but for the moment am clinging on. Its mostly as good a line as I have available and clearly there are 3 VP cities right in the front lines.

I'm not particularly focussed on them any more. Whatever happens I lose the initiative in July – unless I've really miscalculated I'm safe against the sudden death rules for most of 1943 and equally have no chance of a win vs the HWM in December 1944.

So while the Soviets have the incentive of reaching for the sudden death conditions, as long as I can keep some control I'm more looking to the 1945 tests for any chance at all.

This turn I pulled the equivalent of 3 Panzer Armies out of the line. If I am to do any damage it has to be done with real force. I've done fairly well in the low level attacks around Kharkov but reaching the stage where that has little utility.



No need to talk too much over supply – I have plenty. Practically that means I have very few mobile formations <45 MP, so the potential for exploitation and a pocket is there.



Ground losses.



Air losses – still getting a huge amount out of the LW, just about staying within my trained pilot allocation.



Manpower situation is good (still convincing E-Adolf I need lots of men to replace my losses at Stalingrad). More than happy to use Hungarian and Rumanian formations simply as I can readily refit them.



Plenty of planes, have mostly removed the Stukas from the map as I find the Fw190s much better as ground attack planes.



Tank situation less ideal



At the moment the artillery situation is not too bad but its going to get worse as the pressure increases. In my vs AI game in the end I scrapped pretty much every artillery SU to push the assets into the divisions.



So what next. Well clearly the Soviets have agency but its not without restrictions.

From recent minor counter-attacks, well rested the Rifle Corps are now too strong to shift (without really heavy losses) – this is from a few turns back but makes the point:



On the other hand, as they run out their CPP, build up fatigue and so on, they can weaken badly. Equally at this stage, the Soviet mobile formations still lose badly in combat with the Panzers.

So that makes reaching for encirclements a very high risk activity if I have fresh armoured formations on a given sector. And while my current front line has been battered, the core of it has held for the last 5 turns with just a few lost hexes here and there.

Ot in other words, in a running battle I can still win, I can (just about) defend when everything is in my favour, what I can't do is a set-piece Kursk style attack.

My interpretation of the Soviet options is they can do a (mix of) 4 things.

Leningrad, where in the end I could be overwhelmed, putting Pskov and Talinin in play. But that is going to be one hex at a time and its not easy for the Soviets to keep supplied, never mind exploit any wins.

Smolensk, very feasible – in theory they need to take it by T121 to gain a net VP score on the transaction. I've kept the bulk of 4 and 9 Armies here, with reserves, at a pinch several Panzer Corps could deploy. The terrain is poor and I have multiple reserve lines. On the other hand, almost impossible to counter-attack and I'd assume the Soviets have good supply.

Stalino, in one sense already lost. The gain is access to the Dnepr, as the front moves west it widens (usually bad for me) but the rail net is dire. I'll be falling back onto even better supply as they get stretched.



Which leaves Bryansk-Kharkov. Its the obvious place, mostly clear terrain, the Desna isn't much of a barrier and it dismantles any defensive lines east of Smolensk and around Stalino.

There is one huge problem, the pre-war Soviet rail net did not envisage an east-west offensive on this sector. There is one N-S rail now well behind their lines, one that is the current front but its not easy to pull freight from Orel to Belgorod etc. The E-W line to Bryansk is easy to defend and there are huge gaps where there is no E-W link or large gaps.

Or, in other words, plenty of places where an offensive can get over-extended.

[Speedysteve]

Hi All,

Firstly, yes. A happy Birthday and congrats to Loki for 100 weeks of war in our game[:)]

I also agree with Loki that it's a good place for an overview. Things will likely become more 'violent' soon and the glorious Red Army will begin to re-take more of our Motherland from the Bad Guys.

Firstly a summary of the Front.

North -

Although I agree with Loki it's been relatively static there has been some recent progress by the Red Army. It's nothing dramatic but the gains made (the red line on the screenshot - great artwork eh[;)] - was the front line as of December 1942) have virtually all been over the last 2 months.

Now I have a substantial Rifle Corps presence over the whole front more concerted pressure can be put on the Axis lines to slowly, but surely, batter them, lower the forts then advance 10 miles. It will be a long hard slog but you can see that progress over the last 2 months in this screenshot