Notes from a Small Island

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Detection levels are nil to low single digits, even for the subs that just moved into the sea between Hokkaido and Honshu.

You're not the first experienced player to look at the "checkerboard" and conclude, "That wouldn't happen if I were the IJ player." Another experienced player made that observation in my game with John III, offering this: "You won't be able to do that against Obvert."

But it's not nearly as vulnerable as it looks. I generally keep my subs just out of detection range, to prevent high losses. Erik usually limits his patrols/ASW flights, to minimize the huge losses he otherwise incurs from Allied CAP. This line of "no detection/no molestation" is fluid. Sometimes my subs nose too far forward.

But this deployment allows me to keep track of enemy detection levels, which is useful info. It also allows me to "flood the zone" at important intervals. Once such was here, as the Allies invaded Kushiro. The ojbective was to give Erik another reason to be cautious with his combat ships. And the presence of DS took a heavy toll on Erik's search craft.

So, temporarily, my subs are further forward than ordinary. They'll pull back a bit soon.

But that's what boggled me a bit - all of those subs within 4 hexes of Ominato? They should all have DL 10/10, even if there were concerns about CAP shooting down a bunch of search/ASW planes over Kushiro. Or, if setting ASW/search arcs, all of them within 5 or 6 hexes (since ASW is half range. Then there are all of those north of Sapporo...

Maybe it's just me, but my air units don't do double duty for search and ASW. I have dedicated ASW and other units do double duty with some search because it's easier and less pilot-skill-intensive.

Obviously, this is a good thing for you.

[Canoerebel]

Erik has momentarily vanished from view, no doubt taking his time with another intricate turn.

I've seen another thread that includes a lot of comments as to turn-around time for each turn. Many forumites expressing their experiences in terms of an hour or two, sometimes less.

Right now, the average turn takes me about five hours, sometimes considerably more. I think Erik spends as much time, perhaps more.

By 1945, the Allied OOB is immense, requiring my full attention. Massed forces in close proximity in which anything can and will happen means that almost every turn I have to adjust individual squadron and ship settings. That alone can take hours. It's way different from my experience in my early days vs. Miller, when I sometimes didn't even view the movie and might finish a turn in 15 minutes.

[Canoerebel]

Picking up where we left off in here a few days ago, I've just begun re-reading James Grady's Six Days of the Condor, for perhaps the fourth or fifth time in 40 years. It's a terrific, fast-moving, short book. The contrast to Dickens's David Copperfield is stark. The latter is excruciatingly long, slow in developing, plodding, and beautifully written. Six Days of the Condor is a breath of fresh air, like climbing on a roller coaster after spending a summer day cruising timber in a low country cypress swamp.

Grady wrote a novella sequel called Condor.net, I think to serve as a screen play for a possible film production. It is flat awful. Sometimes - most of the time? - writers don't improve with age. See Alistair MacLean, Kenneth Rogers, and Tom Clancy, for starters.

I read fiction for shear enjoyment and to relax my mind between reading or working on more serious historical works. It recharges the creative batteries after they've run low, working on various projects.

[Canoerebel]

Funny, two minutes after that post about awaiting a turn, in comes the turn.

I expected this turn to resemble the last one. It does. On steroids.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/45

Kushiro D+6: The turn opens with a modest bombardment.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/45

Kushiro D+6: Another fast transport landing to trigger enemy arty bombardment.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/45

Kushiro D+6: In the morning phase, sweeps by Allied LBA counter a large CAP over the contested inland hex. The Allied fighters do even better today. Once again, they wear out the enemy fighters, clearing the skies for the inbound Allied bombers.

I think Allied fighters will have achieved at least a 2:1 victory over this hex today. I'll post the Air Losses table later.

Erik has been using his fighters a lot, so they ought to be weary now. I'm rotating mine, so I think my guys can keep up this pace.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/45

Kushiro D+6: Enemy bombers focus on the Rocky Mountain Battalion in a blocking position. Damage done is extensive, but this is meant to serve as a speed bump while the real action takes place to the east. For reasons not yet clear, Erik doesn't send bombers vs. the Allied troops in the contested hex NW of Kushiro.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/45

Kushiro D+6: Allied fighters swept the skies ahead of the first large group of bombers. A few Japanese fighters make an appearance but they 4EB, at 9k, do devastating damage to the enemy ground troops.

The enemy losses are pretty epic. There are a number of smaller but proportionately damaging raids that follow.

The question is, are there enough bombers to disable all combat squads with enough bombers remaining to begin destroying squads?

[Canoerebel]

2/14/45

Kushiro D+6: Yes, there are. This is the first sizeable bomber group to inflict casualties heavily waited to "destruction" as opposed to "disabled." The groups that follow are even more decidedly weighted accordingly, often resulting only in squads destroyed.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/45

Kushiro D+6: In the afternoon, about 100 Navy fighters sweep the renewed CAP over the contested hex, scoring more lopsided victories.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/45

Kushiro D+6: Most of the Allied army at Kushiro rested today, but the enemy bombardment followed by an Allied bombardment and limited attack (by a few armored battalions) inflicts 10%+ damage on a gassed enemy.

Kushiro will fall, probably on the second attack but possibily on the first (tomorrow's).

There's no chance of enemy reinforcements reaching the hex now.

The debacle for Erik's units in the open means it's unlikely the Japanese will be able to open a hexside, in order to extract the Kushiro army.

There's a decent chance he'll lose the units in the open, due to my bombers.

I bet his scalp was aflame as he watched this turn. He's got an army in the open and there isn't a good road to extract them. His units are going to get battered to pieces. He needs to post CAP but he's losing that battle pretty badly.

In the past, when faced with a bad set-up like this one, Erik's response has been to attack strongly somewhere. My first guess would be: Shikuka (sweeps followed by massed bombers). But his fighters must be pretty worn out by now.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/45

Air Losses: At first blush, the ratio doesn't suggest a major Allied victory. This is due (as is often the case) to some sideshow battles involving lesser frames (here mainly Avengers and venerable P-39s). The ratio for frontline fighter losses is much more favorable, which is what I'm focusing on right now. (With the usual caveat that, for AV purposes, a P-39 counts the same as a Ki-83.)

[jwolf]

Fantastic results for your bombers, many congratulations for your hard work setting up those hits.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, jwolf. This op, taking place amidst the overarching concern about the Japanese air force, has gone very well.

I'd like to "rinse-repeat" elsewhere, but that won't be likely. This op required two things to succeed that will rarely happen again: the ability to isolate a Japanese base (preventing Erik from railing in reinforcements) and his need to use LRCAP to protect an army moving overland, away from his airfields so that my bombers could get at them (the LRCAP disadvantage he's laboring under disappears when he's fighting over his own airfield).

[Canoerebel]

A few pages back, some good and experienced Forumites questioned why I didn't simply fight an overland campaign from Wakkanai. I preferred mobility, as utilized in the Kushiro invasion and campaign.

I knew months ago that Kushiro was vulnerable, because Erik didn't have any ground units posted in the adjacent non-base hexes. A month ago, he moved units into non-base hexes between Sapporo and Hakodate, so I knew he was thinking about this. Then, about two weeks back, I noticed movement dots suggesting he might be working to garrison those hexes outside Kushiro. That's when I decided to pull the trigger, even though prep wasn't what I wanted (still in the 40s for a number of infantry divisions).

My main concern about fighting from Wakkanai was that it would be a plodding advance in good defensive terrain. A bigger concern was that I couldn't use bombardment TFs, because they have to remain in the coastal hex an entire day to bombard. That would mean using LRCAP in a disastrsouly disadvantageous environment (the same one Erik's facing here, but he'd do far worse damage to me than I can to him, because his fighters are so much better).

For those reasons and many more it was clear that a mobile campaign for Kushiro offered a much better return that an overland campaign.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/45

NoPac: Operation The Next Big Thing has gone better than I expected. I hope to maintain that record, but there's always a risk of the wheels coming off when weather, dice, folly, forgetfulness, complexity, and mischance influence outcomes.

I think Erik will try to strike hard. As mentioned, Shikuka is the obvious target - it's the only place I think he can really get at that has Allied forces sizeable enough to warrant an all-out attack. Blows at any other Allied base wouldn't offer a real return on the investment. Of course, DS and The Herd are the biggest prize of all, but Erik's navy is battered and probably unable to handle a strike.

He's had kamikazes for a week now. He'll use them at the right time and right place.

Every offensive option I can think of requires him to use his full air force, and right now his fighters should be fairly tuckered out.

[RangerJoe]

All of that bombing made me think of being in an inferno. Those pixelated Japanese must have thought so.

Previously, his bomber losses made me think of how many engines he is losing. While he might have stockpiles, every engine that goes into a bomber replacement can't go into a fighter. If he continues using his fighters like this, they will get tired and maybe you can get a quick strike into a strategic target. If so, consider striking his engine factory locations.

That said, you are doing well and congratulations on picking a target that forces him to fight at a disadvantage. If he loses most of those units at Kushiro and those in the open, his defenses on Hokkaido will be seriously degraded.

That said, if you want to make him nervous, maybe there could be a nice discussion about various trees with lots of comments.

[T Rav]

CR,

I started reading the opposite side, so I won't comment on the game, but...

Who doesn't like trees.

BTW, great AAR. I check in here before I check e-mail or the stock market.

T Rav

[Mike Solli]

I'm curious, were B-29s ever used against ground troops historically? It seems to be a common practice in game.