Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: jmalter

hi JocMeister,

Given that you don't own Pearl, & that US West Coast ports have been a bit (ahem!) interdicted of late, I'd like to know how you're sending supply/fuel in support of your ops in the Port Blair & Solomons theatres.

What are your supply/fuel stocks at Cape Town?
1,5 million/140k

What shipping do you have on the USA EC / Cape Town route?
Nothing. [:)]

Are you using Strat Move to send LCUs & Airgroups between off-map ports?
Yes, most busy route is EC-Balboa but everything going for India goes EC-CT

Are you able to send new ships from the USA WC to Panama, do you have a back-log of ships that can't leave port?
Everything was evacuated when I lost PH and everything that arrived was immediately sent to Balboa. I lost 3 or 4 ships when the invasion fleet arrived but that it. Currently only have small shipping on the WC.

What is your plan to bring new ship construction into play?
A large # of USN ships are able to upgrade to APA/AKA in '43 - are these ships safe, & able to disband in a suitable port?

They are all in SOPAC and just delivered the invasion at PM and Milne. They are safely at Townesville now. They will move together with the fleet to new adventures shortly. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

Jocke faces the vaccum-after-decisive-battle dilemma that most of us PBEMers have experienced. He has an opportunity that exists by virtue of an enemy that was focused elsewehre, suffered a catastrophic setback, and now has to scramble to get back into position.

Jocke will be able to push forward strongly for awhile, but his weighing of "how far and how fast" is "far and fast enough" will be interesting to watch. At some point, the whipped German Army that's been in full retreat for months, which could never hold its own again, suddenly turns and gives battle in the Ardennes.

Jeff should and will pay for his monomania, but as long as KB is intact, Jocke isn't free to go anywhere he wants in early '43. But it's interesting (and impressive) to see that he configured large offensive involving lots of planning and logistics in order to take advantage of the situation.

His moves aren't the sudden, shoestring moves of a victor caught unprepared to take advantage of victory.

[Wuffer]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

At some point, the whipped German Army that's been in full retreat for months, which could never hold its own again, suddenly turns and gives battle in the Ardennes.

While I share your concerns, I would think Korea serves much better as an example to illustrate the Clausewitz' term of overstreching the offensive.
A bit OT, but let me allow to introduce Operation Queen , especially the battle of Huertgen forest; unfortuneately, not only Market Garden underestimated the fanatic resistence... I might stress this a bit, because for political reasons a lot of potentiel very important lessons were not recognized, which maybe led to the nothern Korea disaster (Patton was really missed there).

sry for OT

edit: forgot the link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_ad ... _the_Rhine

[Encircled]

Jocke will be able to push forward strongly for awhile, but his weighing of "how far and how fast" is "far and fast enough" will be interesting to watch. At some point, the whipped German Army that's been in full retreat for months, which could never hold its own again, suddenly turns and gives battle in the Ardennes.

I reckon Joc would be over the moon if Lowpe wasted his remaining reserves in a desperation attack that had little chance of success!

[JocMeister]

Hi guys. Sorry for being absent lately. Work has been/is brutal right now. New client who has a massive backlog of work we need to complete for them.

No turn yet.

Off to bed.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

So he didnt do a single ground attack bar some artillery probing in San Diego ?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

So he didnt do a single ground attack bar some artillery probing in San Diego ?

No attacks. Only bombardments. Which is a shame for me but a smart move on Jeffs part. I think he realized forts must be really high since his bombardments failed miserably. He took some heavy losses in those bombardments.

His naval bombardments pretty much achieved nothing either. So I bet he put two and two together.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]West Coast[/font]
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Spotted a TF moving NE towards SD this turn. Is this the inevitable evacuation? I´m not going to let him get out without blood though. Bombers close the AFs at Camp Pendleton and Santa Ana again. Don´t want him to have LBA cover.

300 Fighters spread out on bases around LA. Plan is to absolutely wreck the KB air wings using superior LBA (Corsairs, P47s, P38s and P40Ks). Once that is done LBA will start hitting the shipping together with PT boats and subs.

I have some 200 DBs and 50 TBs ready to strike. But I can´t take any losses so I will have to wait for fighters to clear the CAP.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Andamans[/font]
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The reinforcement effort here has gone by unhindered. We bolstered the engineers at both Port Blair and Little Andaman. Car Nicobar will be invaded shortly. I now have a strong CAP of 150 Hurricanes protecting the shipping together with a very strong naval presence. Given the range to Japanese LBA I doubt something will happen here.

Once everything is unloaded the fleet will retire for some R&R.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]New Guinea[/font]
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No opposition on the other side of the world either. BFs will be landing at PM tomorrow. The base should be fully functional in a few days. When that happens we will continue with expansion.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Allied planning[/font]
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I finally decided on how to proceed. Or rather how not to....

I know a lot of you would like to see a "coup the grace" landing somewhere right in the middle of things. This was also my plan with Pencil II. But the Paper and Pencil operations clearly show one thing: The allies are not yet capable of such a landing. While combat troops are plentiful we lack proper shipping for such an operation. Using xAPs/xAKs would mean several days of unloading outside Allied LBA. This is not doable without heavy losses. To further worsen things I cannot land enough combat troops, supply and BFs in one go. This means I would have to go in twice. I don´t have enough CV power for that. I´m still flying Wildkittens from only 3 Fleet CVs. That means maybe 50-70 Kittens on CAP at best. Simply not enough for sustained fighting. CVEs can to a small extent fill the gap but I´m chronically short on F4Fs. Right now I have 6 in the pool and 10+ squadrons completely empty of planes.

People who have read my earlier AARs know I don´t shy away from losses if I deem them worthwhile for a bigger goal. In this case I feel its unwarranted. Its still February 43. I´m a full year ahead of schedule. AV is completely out of the picture. There is simply no need for unnecessary risks at this stage.

To further complicate the situation I have to plan on a Japanese response in about 6 months. The imminent fall of Chungking will free up even more troops and I estimate in 6 moths time Japan will have 12-16 divisions available together with the WC troops. Whatever I do NOW will have to be able to deal with that in 6 months. Again: This is early 43 and not 44. While the allies are stronger than they were 1 year ago Japan is still stronger in most areas.

My plan is simple. I will continue to advance slowly but surely on the broadest possible front. In fact I plan on opening two new fronts during spring. I want to dissipate Japanese forces into the largest area possibly. KB will be a big factor in the coming year. Luckily for me Jeff doesn´t have much choice in the deployment of KB. Given Allied possession of Andamans KB will have to babysit the DEI and Thai coast. KB will be at Singers for sure.

Patience is a virtue. Sorry to disappoint you guys but I have to do what I deem best. Trust me on this. Its the right thing to do. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]VP score[/font]
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This is why I´m in no hurry...Japanese VP will be given a bump with the fall of Chungking. But I suspect it will be with less than Jeff expects. About half the Chinese army has fled elsewhere. They will be back in a year or two... [:)]

[Grollub]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"]Allied planning[/font]
_____________________________________________________________________________

I finally decided on how to proceed. Or rather how not to....

I know a lot of you would like to see a "coup the grace" landing somewhere right in the middle of things. This was also my plan with Pencil II. But the Paper and Pencil operations clearly show one thing: The allies are not yet capable of such a landing. While combat troops are plentiful we lack proper shipping for such an operation. Using xAPs/xAKs would mean several days of unloading outside Allied LBA. This is not doable without heavy losses. To further worsen things I cannot land enough combat troops, supply and BFs in one go. This means I would have to go in twice. I don´t have enough CV power for that. I´m still flying Wildkittens from only 3 Fleet CVs. That means maybe 50-70 Kittens on CAP at best. Simply not enough for sustained fighting. CVEs can to a small extent fill the gap but I´m chronically short on F4Fs. Right now I have 6 in the pool and 10+ squadrons completely empty of planes.

People who have read my earlier AARs know I don´t shy away from losses if I deem them worthwhile for a bigger goal. In this case I feel its unwarranted. Its still February 43. I´m a full year ahead of schedule. AV is completely out of the picture. There is simply no need for unnecessary risks at this stage.

To further complicate the situation I have to plan on a Japanese response in about 6 months. The imminent fall of Chungking will free up even more troops and I estimate in 6 moths time Japan will have 12-16 divisions available together with the WC troops. Whatever I do NOW will have to be able to deal with that in 6 months. Again: This is early 43 and not 44. While the allies are stronger than they were 1 year ago Japan is still stronger in most areas.

My plan is simple. I will continue to advance slowly but surely on the broadest possible front. In fact I plan on opening two new fronts during spring. I want to dissipate Japanese forces into the largest area possibly. KB will be a big factor in the coming year. Luckily for me Jeff doesn´t have much choice in the deployment of KB. Given Allied possession of Andamans KB will have to babysit the DEI and Thai coast. KB will be at Singers for sure.

Patience is a virtue. Sorry to disappoint you guys but I have to do what I deem best. Trust me on this. Its the right thing to do. [:)]

Good analysis Joc.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]February 6th -43[/font]
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Some action this turn. Havn´t gotten the turn yet though. But at the start of the turn something sank. Shouldn´t be anything allied...

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 06, 43
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Groot Natoena at 60,84

Japanese Ships
xAP Miike Maru, Torpedo hits 1
xAP Yoshino Maru
xAP Tatsuta Maru
DD Oboro

Allied Ships
SS Sculpin

Japanese ground losses:
14 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Sub attack near San Diego at 223,88

Japanese Ships
AO Kokuyo Maru, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS S-42

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Andamans[/font]
_____________________________________________________________________________

I was wrong. Japan strike towards the unloading cargo ships. But CAP is strong and the distance too long.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Little Andaman at 44,59

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 6 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 11
Ki-48-IIb Lily x 31

Allied aircraft
Martlet II x 7
Hurricane IIb Trop x 9
Hurricane IIc Trop x 8
F4F-3 Wildcat x 14
F4F-4 Wildcat x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
Ki-48-IIb Lily: 19 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-3 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 2 destroyed

[BBfanboy]

Disappointing that you only got two of the Zeros on escort duty. Do you have your Hurricanes flying high CAP? IIRC they have the best maneuver ratings at altitude - better than the Zero even.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]PM[/font]
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Jeff probably tries to evacuate some troops from Buna. Allied TBs strike. Not sure why the DBs didn´t deal with this.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Buna at 99,129

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-46 KAI Dinah x 1

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 11
TBF-1 Avenger x 8

No Japanese losses

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
xAK Nippo Maru, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x TBF-1 Avenger launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 22.4in Mk 13 Torp.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Milne liberated![/font]
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Huzzah!

Ground combat at Milne Bay (101,133)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 3135 troops, 100 guns, 23 vehicles, Assault Value = 215

Defending force 420 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 16

Allied adjusted assault: 170

Japanese adjusted defense: 3

Allied assault odds: 56 to 1 (fort level 0)

Allied forces CAPTURE Milne Bay !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), fatigue(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
198 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Units retreated 1

Allied ground losses:
16 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
1st Australian Division

Defending units:
2nd Indpt SNLF Coy

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Disappointing that you only got two of the Zeros on escort duty. Do you have your Hurricanes flying high CAP? IIRC they have the best maneuver ratings at altitude - better than the Zero even.

Nope, they are all down on 10k to protect the shipping. Can´t unload a radar until the port is expanded or I find some NavSupport so I don´t want to try anything fancy!

[Canoerebel]

I agree with your planning, Jocke. To go too far too fast would invite trouble. You've planned well so that you are able to move forward strongly and methodically, which should work well against a beleagured enemy.

Have you given any thought to how Jeff is likely to perceive what's going on, how he's likely to react, and the risks he's likely to take? Jeff probably thinks he's no in a very dangerous position, KB off somewhere else, a vital mission to attend to the West Coast, and lots of undefended territory between New Guinea and the Home Islands. You aren't planning to invade Okinawa tomorrow, but he doesn't know that. If you give the appearance of going deep soon it might goad him into taking chances that you can take advantage off.

Send some DDs/CLs raiding deep; use long-range recon and patrols to sniff out far behind the main lines, organize some sham invasion TFs to probe his detection levels here and there, lighting up his radar screen with apparent threats.

You're probably doing all those things and more, but I like thinking aloud.