OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

This is one of the three charts in the link given by Erik Rutens yesterday (link: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

The image here shows the graph of expected mortality by day in the USA. For April 2, the projection was 1,036. The actual number (by Worldometers) was 968. So nearly 70 below the prediction, or roughly 6%.

If the daily number continues to fall beneath the projection, the death toll will, of course, be lower than projected.

The total mortality projected by this source is 93,000, with a range of 40k to about 178k. If we come in under the 93k, or significantly under, that's going to be remarkable.

[Canoerebel]

Mortality in New York was down considerably yesterday. Other states, especially New Jersey, up.

NY is likely to be the key to what we'll endure in the USA (in total numbers, likely the real bellwether), so the trends there are most important. Yesterday's total may just be a perturbation (noise).

[Canoerebel]

Relatively low cases and mortalities in "hot" countries have been a topic of interest.

Nigeria is an interesting case in point. The first case arrived in Lagos about a month ago. There were dire predictions that mayhem would result in that supercity. But it didn't happen - or hasn't seemed to, by the numbers shown. Why not?

Possibilities - testing is spotty there, mortality reporting is done differently and poorly, or climate does play a roll.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

United Nations wants 10% of entire planet’s annual income in fund for coronavirus response
Apr 1, 2020


https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/unite ... s-response


"April 1, 2020 (LifeSiteNews) – The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, has announced the creation of a fund for addressing the global coronavirus pandemic – and he is simultaneously asking nations to contribute the equivalent of at least 10 percent of the annual income of the entire planet to a massive “human-centered, innovative and coordinated stimulus package” that would be administered at the international level."

"f countries were to accept the plan, the United Nations or some similar coordinating agency would be given the equivalent of approximately 8.7 trillion USD, an unprecedented amount that would be 2,900 times greater than the UN’s annual budget of 3 billion USD."

Yeah, that's not going to happen. In fact, the head of WHO, which I believe is run by the UN, should be fired for spreading ChiCom propaganda about the virus back in January. Big help he was!

Many "Power Plays" are happening.

In the case of the UN, situation normal. "The sun rose today, the UN wants power and money."

The UN did not help this situation but they still want power over a great part of dealing with it.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Are you angry at the Chicoms yet?

How about this? 760,000 people flooded into the US from China AFTER the CCP knew about the deadliness and alarming infectiousness of the virus.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/disaste ... d=69933625

If you ask me, the f****** did that on purpose and if someone bothers to look it up I suspect they did the same thing to Europe. It is either epic bureaucratic incompetence or it is an act of evil the world has not seen for 50 years (since Mao)

Ok. The video you posted going through evidence this spilled accidentally from the Wuhan virology lab looks legit. Some commenters, some native Mandarin speakers, verified the posts of data in Chinese on the video. It was well researched and corroborated. That lab is very close to the wet market as well. And there is this missing person who worked there during the time all of this kicked off.

So there was a BIG mistake, and they tried to cover it, then contain it, then cover up the actual numbers and effects of it. Looks like they're still doing a bit of that, but it's kind of amazing then that they didn't hide those documents from the Virology lab. Of course they could be fabricated too. Who really knows.

We do know something is fishy.

But travel is a different thing altogether. This article mentions also that about 1/3 of that number were Americans returning home from travelling in China. All you have to do is look at the number of normally scheduled fights around the world to see that this stuff will spread regardless of intent.

Travel data of passengers arriving in the United States from China during the critical period in December, January and February, when the disease took hold in that country, shows a stunning 759,493 people entered the U.S.

"This is an astonishing number in a short period of time, illustrating how globalized our world has become. Just as people can hop continents with amazing ease, the infections they carry can too," said Dr. Vinayak Kumar, an internal medicine resident at the Mayo Clinic and a contributor to the ABC News Medical Unit.

Those travelers from China included more than 228,000 Americans returning home and hundreds of thousands of Chinese nationals arriving for business, academics, tourism or to visit family.

There were also a LOT more coming later from places where the virus had already taken hold in Europe.

ABC News examined data from December, January and February on travelers entering the U.S. from eight of the hardest-hit countries: 343,402 arrived from Italy, 418,848 from Spain and about 1.9 million more came from Britain.

The idea that the Chinese are misrepresenting the situation in China, and have been doing so for a very long time, is now beyond doubt.

The idea that this was somehow an intentional spread of disease is not clearly supported by any objective information, but would also not stand up to basic logic: China is a manufacturing nation, it's economy relying on the purchasing power and economic health of the other wealthy developed countries, most especially the US. China and Chinese companies have extensive investments in the US and any downturn in the economy will hurt them as much or more as the US and Europe.

While China now carries a big stick to go along with it's focus on commerce, it's essentially a mercantile empire, not a military expansionist one.

I think the case for negligence is a strong one. Deliberate... maybe callous disregard is more accurate.

[JohnDillworth]

Mortality in New York was down considerably yesterday

It goes up and down but I sure am hoping for a trend. 3,4,5 days in a row would be a trend. Might just be that the the doctors are behind on signing death certificates. That is happening. Funereal Homes generally have a 10 day wait before they can receive a body, thus the 40+ refrigerated trailers. In most cases if is graveside burial only with a limit of 10 mourners so I'd be OK

[JohnDillworth]

Relatively low cases and mortalities in "hot" countries have been a topic of interest.

Nigeria is an interesting case in point. The first case arrived in Lagos about a month ago. There were dire predictions that mayhem would result in that supercity. But it didn't happen - or hasn't seemed to, by the numbers shown. Why not?

Possibilities - testing is spotty there, mortality reporting is done differently and poorly, or climate does play a roll.

Not a major transportation hub and probably not much testing. This will get into the southern hemisphere and 3rd world countries soon enough. Never been but I presume that Lagos has the density for this to take off. The beast is sometimes slow, but it is relentless.

[Canoerebel]

Testing or reporting methodology in Nigeria could well be way, way off. In that case, mortality will skyrocket (and probably already should have, given how long it's been there). That is, given population density and other factors in Lagos, which began dealing with this a month ago.

[tolsdorff]

om nom nom.

[Canoerebel]

I agree. Spotting trends is an exercise in patience and even then subject to error. A week or so ago, there seemed to be a particular trend in Italy after about four days. Then, whoosh, another jump.

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Mortality in New York was down considerably yesterday

It goes up and down but I sure am hoping for a trend. 3,4,5 days in a row would be a trend. Might just be that the the doctors are behind on signing death certificates. That is happening. Funereal Homes generally have a 10 day wait before they can receive a body, thus the 40+ refrigerated trailers. In most cases if is graveside burial only with a limit of 10 mourners so I'd be OK

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Tolsdorf, for what it's worth, I haven't heard assertions of "people wanting old people to die" in any discourse and coverage I've been part of or seen/heard. That's just not part of the conversations I've heard.

In the USA, unemployment is way up and the Congress has begun taking steps to address that in various ways. More will be needed, probably. And tweaks. But efforts are being made to ameliorate this.

I know of many corporate employers (including those of my wife and youngest child) who have simply kept paying employees, even though they're not working!

I think there may be a lot of trouble brewing, here and there, but there also seems to be a great deal of good. People are being patient and kind. There's been zero ugliness, at least in the parts I frequent and hear about.

I have some optimism it's that way in most or all of the US (the only jurisdiction I'm personally familiar with) and probably most of the world to boot.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


I've got to be in the middle of it.


One of the people I supervise care of is slowly dying of multiple cancers. Perspective I guess.

A suggestion that I have given before, look up antabuse and cancer. You may be surprised.

[Uncivil Engineer]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Hospitalizations, deaths higher for coronavirus patients with diabetes
CDT April 2, 2020
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/healt ... 7b3d285f95


"DALLAS — According to Dallas County Health and Human Services, 28% of COVID-19 patients who have required hospitalization in Dallas County are diabetic.

While the state of Texas says it does not yet have data to provide trends showing diabetes and coronavirus complications, Louisiana does.

Data released by the state health department on Monday shows 40% of Louisiana patients who died from COVID-19 had diabetes. "

Since about 26% of Americans over 65 are diabetic (per AMA), then the fact that 28% of COVID-19 patients are diabetic is to be expected. The REAL question is - what percent of diabetic COVID-19 patients die and what percent recover ? Asking for a friend.

[Canoerebel]

Daily New Cases in Spain seems to have settled into a trend. The number reported to day is down from 4/2, adding to that perception.

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: Encircled
There are a few posts creeping in that suggest the ban on politics is only one way.

Actually there are many posts that show how this thread is rather successful in self-moderating.

A variant of a famous joke:

A man is praying to his God in a fully packed holy site.

MAN: Oh God, hear us! Save us from the Coronavirus!

GOD: I sent to you fair warnings, scientists, doctors, nurses, the rule of KEEPING SOCIAL DISTANCE. What the heck do you want now?

[JohnDillworth]

Actually there are many posts that show how this thread is rather successful in self-moderating.

A variant of a famous joke:

A man is praying to his God in a fully packed holy site.

MAN: Oh God, hear us! Save us from the Coronavirus!

GOD: I sent to you fair warnings, scientists, doctors, nurses, the rule of KEEPING SOCIAL DISTANCE. What the heck do you want now?

There are a growing number of outbreaks tied to religious gatherings in the USA. The early ones may have been accidental but every day I hear another report of some institution that gets their congregation together. Almost invariably, many people get sick from these gatherings in the days and weeks after. I know in most places the Catholic Church's have closed long ago. Fist time since 1918 I understand. Almost of houses of worship are closed, the ones they try and remain open are paying a terrible price.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is one of the three charts in the link given by Erik Rutens yesterday (link: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

The image here shows the graph of expected mortality by day in the USA. For April 2, the projection was 1,036. The actual number (by Worldometers) was 968. So nearly 70 below the prediction, or roughly 6%.

If the daily number continues to fall beneath the projection, the death toll will, of course, be lower than projected.

The total mortality projected by this source is 93,000, with a range of 40k to about 178k. If we come in under the 93k, or significantly under, that's going to be remarkable.

Still, a model within 6% of the actual value is pretty damned good. A Hell of a lot better than the daily Racing Form. It does seem someone fed Governor Cuomo some alarmist ventilator need numbers. Even so, it must be a stressful job. The NY Mayor seems to have become a bit unglued. He's still holding up better than Ray Nagin did.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Tolsdorf, for what it's worth, I haven't heard assertions of "people wanting old people to die" in any discourse and coverage I've been part of or seen/heard. That's just not part of the conversations I've heard.

You would have had to be paying attention to the unhinged rantings and ravings of celebrities to take notice of this.

Back when Trump first started making statements about balancing the degree of shut down to keep the cure from being worse than the disease it was Cher that claimed he wanted to kill her mother to protect 'his' economy.

[Canoerebel]

John, I know that there were serious outbreaks related to funerals in Albany, GA, to a church choir practice in Cartersville, GA, and to a church choir practice in Washington State.

Like you, I've seen reports of "in your face" churches meeting in various places - one in Florida and one in Louisiana come to mind.

In my jurisdiction of northwest Georgia, all churches closed up about three weeks ago. I haven't heard of any exceptions. As you know, I live in a mostly semi-rural to rural region, so you'd expect there to be more "opposition" here than other places, but that hasn't been the case.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Actually there are many posts that show how this thread is rather successful in self-moderating.

A variant of a famous joke:

A man is praying to his God in a fully packed holy site.

MAN: Oh God, hear us! Save us from the Coronavirus!

GOD: I sent to you fair warnings, scientists, doctors, nurses, the rule of KEEPING SOCIAL DISTANCE. What the heck do you want now?

There are a growing number of outbreaks tied to religious gatherings in the USA. The early ones may have been accidental but every day I hear another report of some institution that gets their congregation together. Almost invariably, many people get sick from these gatherings in the days and weeks after. I know in most places the Catholic Church's have closed long ago. Fist time since 1918 I understand. Almost of houses of worship are closed, the ones they try and remain open are paying a terrible price.

A bit of rioting in Israel about shutting down Friday prayers too.