Notes from a Small Island

[adarbrauner]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2/18/45

Kushiro D+10: Another fast transport landing. I think I did this on every D+ day, except possibly one. It definitely played a major role in taking the base - this, successfully sealing the base from reinforcements, and basically controlling the seas were key parts of the plan.

I've had frank and good discussions with Erik about everything. He and I are A-Okay about everything going on in the game. We're enjoying the match. It's tough and taut and well-fought. I'm fortunate to be facing an opponent of his caliber, both as a player and as a man.

He can tolerate this practice but honestly it's not a good one. Not at all.

[adarbrauner]

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[adarbrauner]

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[adarbrauner]

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[adarbrauner]

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[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Contested Hex: Both armies are gassed, and there's a chance Erik can open a retreat path for his Kushiro army...though it would probably get destroyed by Allied LBA by retreating to this hex.

[Canoerebel]

In Kushiro and the contested hex, Erik has five divisions at "0" AV. At Bihoro, he has one that may be at less than 200 AV. There are also lots of mixed brigades and an amphibious brigade in similar straits.

Considering the air war difficulties and the condition of his ground troops, he may elect to retire from Bihoro. That's what I'm hoping.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

Air Losses: A very good day for the Allies, but that long string of 15:1, 9:1, etc. victories ultimately translates into about 3:1. That's a ratio I can live with, even with my thin fighter pools, but Erik will try to avoid the LRCAP mismatches that have bedeviled him this past week.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/44

Fighter Losses: As usual, this is the key to Allied fortunes. I think the Allies prevailed at modestly over 3:1.

Two Superforts lost today, which I think is two more than the past two days. 4EB losses have been remarkably light during this bombing campaign.

[MakeeLearn]

What is G2 telling you, from the last few months of SigInt?

[Canoerebel]

I'm not sure I follow you, MakeeLearn. SigInt is especially important in crafting distant invasions and estimating distant enemy strengths. It's not too helpful when everything's happening in a confined area, and that area is under reconnaissance, nav search, and other forms of surveillance. NoPac is the center of the war, and the SigInt that I get merely tells me things I already know.

But there are other theaters, more distant from the heartland, and there SigInt is helping paint a picture that is helpful in evaluating possibilities, weakenesses and strongpoints.

[RangerJoe]

Nice work at Kushiro. It looks like if he has to rebuild his units from any survivors of the onslaught, they will take a lot of supply, and devices. Their morale will be shot and their experience should drop dramatically. So even if they are rebuilt, they will not be that combat effective for awhile. If they retreat to the open hex, you can grind them some more before they would have a chance to make it to Bihoro.

The Kuriles: Beat him while he is down, stomp on him, don't leave an enemy behind you, make sure that the enemy is dead.

A nice, timely reinforcement at Bihoro. It looks like the units arrived there without a lot of their supporting devices. Do you think that you could reinforce there before Kushiro is free of the enemy?

If you can keep the units in the open hex, then those units in Kushiro and in the open hex are dead if you can take Bihoro. So you might consider how you can take Bihoro sooner than later.

The air war is going your way now, keep up the good work. By the way, did you know that about 20% of the op losses actually come back as replacement air frames?

[Canoerebel]

My replies in red, Ranger Joe:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Nice work at Kushiro. It looks like if he has to rebuild his units from any survivors of the onslaught, they will take a lot of supply, and devices. Their morale will be shot and their experience should drop dramatically. So even if they are rebuilt, they will not be that combat effective for awhile. If they retreat to the open hex, you can grind them some more before they would have a chance to make it to Bihoro.

The Kuriles: Beat him while he is down, stomp on him, don't leave an enemy behind you, make sure that the enemy is dead. Yes, that's the plan.

A nice, timely reinforcement at Bihoro. It looks like the units arrived there without a lot of their supporting devices. Do you think that you could reinforce there before Kushiro is free of the enemy? You're right, they are light on devices, because they landed at a non-base hex. Reinforcements are inbound from as far as Kushiro, and some via ship, but I think they'll arrive to late to influence the outcome at Bihoro.

If you can keep the units in the open hex, then those units in Kushiro and in the open hex are dead if you can take Bihoro. So you might consider how you can take Bihoro sooner than later. The key is to persuade Erik to evacuate. That truly makes things easy. If he reinforces, my guys are too "light" (lacking support, heavy weapons) to take the base until I bring up serious reinforcements or pound the base to death, which will take weeks.

The air war is going your way now, keep up the good work. By the way, did you know that about 20% of the op losses actually come back as replacement air frames? I didn't know that. I don't think I've ever seen that before.

[Canoerebel]

2/19/45

NoPac: The big picture.

[jwolf]

Considering the risk you noted at and adjacent to Bihoro, why not shift your sweep and bomb campaign to Bihoro itself, and forget about the battered units next door?

[Canoerebel]

A whole Japanese army is in the open and subject to destruction. No way I'd change targets to select one that probably has six or more forts. This is a rare opportunity.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure I follow you, MakeeLearn. SigInt is especially important in crafting distant invasions and estimating distant enemy strengths. It's not too helpful when everything's happening in a confined area, and that area is under reconnaissance, nav search, and other forms of surveillance. NoPac is the center of the war, and the SigInt that I get merely tells me things I already know.

But there are other theaters, more distant from the heartland, and there SigInt is helping paint a picture that is helpful in evaluating possibilities, weakenesses and strongpoints.

It's good to have a center of focus, but not to the point of being myopic or disregarding the peripheral.
War is multidimensional, things not "On Stage" are still part of the Play.
Patterns, movements, what is being sent where - over a period of weeks.

Over a period of time...
What ports are getting lots of activity?
Are resources/oil/fuel moving from a staging area into Japan?
Ships moving into repair ports?
Are ships/LCUs being concentrated?
Are air units being moved to certain bases for rest/refitting?

Bull head butting has it's advantages, but don't miss a chance for enfilading fire.

[Canoerebel]

There are things going on in other theaters, some now and some planned down the road. But the center of the war is NoPac, so I'm focusing there. It helps keep the AAR manageable. Wwhile back, I tried to include Burma in the AAR, but things got really tedious.

[RangerJoe]

My mistook, not ops losses per se but rather the write offs:

7.2.1.14 OPERATIONAL LOSSES TO AIRCRAFT

Operational Losses (or Op Losses) occur due to accidents or other untoward events that are not a direct result of being shot at by the enemy. These losses occur to squadrons based on several factors, including the range of the Mission, the experience of the pilot, and if the aircraft is flying from a carrier. Any long-range Carrier-based aircraft strikes (of two or more hexes in distance) will cause an extra chance of operational losses to be incurred. However, if a player’s base has sufficient supplies they may note that any damaged aircraft will likely be repaired before the next Orders Phase.

Op losses include planes lost returning to base and planes crashing, planes destroyed or damaged on take-off and landing, and pilots as a result getting killed, wounded, or captured.

Write offs are a new type of Ops loss for A/C. A write off may occur when a machine returns with too much damage to repair. Pilot survival rates are higher for write offs than Ops losses. It is assumed that the plane is cannibalized for parts, and thus after 5 write offs an extra plane is considered repaired and becomes available.

So while a "Write Off" is an Ops loss, an Ops loss is not necessarily a "Write Off" but some of them end up being available. I might look into this further. I think that historically, crashed planes were cannibalized for usable parts but I don't know how this is modeled in the game. I do know that an AVG P-40B did land in a rice paddy, was repaired, and then flown out days later.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There are things going on in other theaters, some now and some planned down the road. But the center of the war is NoPac, so I'm focusing there. It helps keep the AAR manageable. Wwhile back, I tried to include Burma in the AAR, but things got really tedious.

Iam bring in some of the real world training I've done.

Not talking about a major shift of operations. Gleaning SigInt for that opportunity - Special Operations - is there a Japanese Capital Ship moving some where, a oil/fuel TF on the move, a base where the majority of squadrons are resting/training - ripe for the picking. Is there a sector where you can just make noise and really rattle his cage?

I can say this without guilt because I've not read the Opfor-AAR in a good while.

In the real world you would have staffs for such doings, but don't miss a opportunity to throw the enemy off balance or get a big propaganda strike.