OT: Corona virus

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: alanschu

I don't have a link handy, but I believe France's spike in numbers is because they started counting those that passed away in places like nursing homes and whatnot.

warspite1

Please see post 3053

If you want a source take a look at Worldometers and drill down on France. According to them the spike was yesterday, 2 April, and added 884 to yesterdays total. They will allocate to each specific day as and when that information becomes available. So todays 1120 appear not to include any additional non-hospital deaths.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert




It's been posted numerous times on this thread and there is abundant info on Germany available with a quick search.

1. Case age average up until about 3-4 days ago was 46 years old. Very low
2. This was caused mainly by skiing crowd picking it up and coming back, then partying at Carnival.
3. Older people told early on to isolate, no visits to care homes, etc.
4. Extensive testing and case tracking early.
5. Extensive testing finds more mild or asymptomatic cases bring the mortality rates down.

There are a lot of reports that now it's finding a way into care homes and other vectors to the more vulneable, so as seen elsewhere, this would bring up critical cases and mortality.

In the UK London is the centre of this so far and only 11% of Londoners are over 70, IIRC. There are obviously other risk factors though, and low testing means mortality rates will at least seem higher until we know more about who has or has had this.

I read a rather interesting article the other day on why/how Germany has done so many tests. Here it is.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059548 ... -countries

Germany's death rate is more comparable to the US death rate so far than it is to Italy's. On day 20, they are at 13.3 deaths per million and the US was at 11.8 deaths per million on day 20. On day 18, they were at 9.3 and we were at 7.5 deaths per million.

They're talking about ding 200k test/day there soon. In the article the expert says they will soon have more cases than tests can detect. If so that is a LOT of cases with 1.4 million tests a week! [X(]

It is a lot of cases... but I'm not quite sure we should be comparing "more cases than tests can detect" with how many cases they're able to do per week. I think that would be true regardless of the number of tests you're doing, unless you're testing every COVID-negative person in your population every 2 weeks or less.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer
Yeah, that's not going to happen. In fact, the head of WHO, which I believe is run by the UN, should be fired for spreading ChiCom propaganda about the virus back in January. Big help he was!

China OWNS a lot of people.

Do you find that political?


I see it as Corporate and plain greed.

No, but these ones are:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

United Nations wants 10% of entire planet’s annual income in fund for coronavirus response
Apr 1, 2020


https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/unite ... s-response


"April 1, 2020 (LifeSiteNews) – The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, has announced the creation of a fund for addressing the global coronavirus pandemic – and he is simultaneously asking nations to contribute the equivalent of at least 10 percent of the annual income of the entire planet to a massive “human-centered, innovative and coordinated stimulus package” that would be administered at the international level."

"f countries were to accept the plan, the United Nations or some similar coordinating agency would be given the equivalent of approximately 8.7 trillion USD, an unprecedented amount that would be 2,900 times greater than the UN’s annual budget of 3 billion USD."

Yeah, that's not going to happen. In fact, the head of WHO, which I believe is run by the UN, should be fired for spreading ChiCom propaganda about the virus back in January. Big help he was!

Many "Power Plays" are happening.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

It is a lot of cases... but I'm not quite sure we should be comparing "more cases than tests can detect" with how many cases they're able to do per week. I think that would be true regardless of the number of tests you're doing, unless you're testing every COVID-negative person in your population every 2 weeks or less.

Sure. Just saying, if they're doing the most tests in Europe, and still feel they're going to begin not having a grasp soon of how much of this is out there, that makes me concerned.

If the antibody test gets going that will be helpful, and it seems like the UK will have a lot of those happening soon.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Tolsdorf, for what it's worth, I haven't heard assertions of "people wanting old people to die" in any discourse and coverage I've been part of or seen/heard. That's just not part of the conversations I've heard.

In the USA, unemployment is way up and the Congress has begun taking steps to address that in various ways. More will be needed, probably. And tweaks. But efforts are being made to ameliorate this.

I know of many corporate employers (including those of my wife and youngest child) who have simply kept paying employees, even though they're not working!

I think there may be a lot of trouble brewing, here and there, but there also seems to be a great deal of good. People are being patient and kind. There's been zero ugliness, at least in the parts I frequent and hear about.

I have some optimism it's that way in most or all of the US (the only jurisdiction I'm personally familiar with) and probably most of the world to boot.

Yeah, I haven't either.

I actually think the UI measures that are in the bill are pretty darn good. Also, while the mass number of people applying for UI in the last 2 weeks (10 million!) is definitely eyepopping, and we should make sure these people are OK long term, that's actually kind of the point of the UI measures in the bill: we want these people who have lost their jobs or incomes from the economic lockdown to be accessing the expanded UI benefits that go through June (or is it through July?). Also, for the time being, I'm cautiously optimistic that if we ease up at the correct time, almost all of these people will eventually have jobs to go back to. We might need another bill or two if we aren't able to fully reopen the economy to the public by July, but as long as we can float along the businesses that get forgivable loans (like those you mentioned that are paying their employees even though they aren't working) then they will still be there when this is over. The point of those loans is to make sure as many restaurants, local stores, local contractors, and so on are there and ready to open their doors the instant it's OK to do so.


Only speaking for the US here. I don't know enough about anti-poverty measures in other countries (hardly anything, really).

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

It is a lot of cases... but I'm not quite sure we should be comparing "more cases than tests can detect" with how many cases they're able to do per week. I think that would be true regardless of the number of tests you're doing, unless you're testing every COVID-negative person in your population every 2 weeks or less.

Sure. Just saying, if they're doing the most tests in Europe, and still feel they're going to begin not having a grasp soon of how much of this is out there, that makes me concerned.

If the antibody test gets going that will be helpful, and it seems like the UK will have a lot of those happening soon.

Serology tests will be useful, once we have them in mass numbers. By using them, we would be able to tell who has antibodies and also make progress on determining whether that grants them immunity and to what extent and for how long. And then, once we have that, we'd be able to give serology tests to people and those that have antibodies (and if that grants immunity), they could resume more normal activities as they would not be at risk of (re-)infection or of passing it along to anybody else.

That's the hope, anyway.

[alanschu]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

We'll get there - that's what we're trying to do. But because of the acute nature of this disease, and how much more rapidly it spreads than the common cold or the flu does, we're trying to slow down when we reach herd immunity. Flattening the curve.

Yeah my basic understanding is that things only really get terribad when the health care systems get overwhelmed and the idea of slowing the overall transmission to help prevent that will mitigate overall costs associated with the pandemic.

[MakeeLearn]

No, but these ones are:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

United Nations wants 10% of entire planet’s annual income in fund for coronavirus response
Apr 1, 2020


https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/unite ... s-response


"April 1, 2020 (LifeSiteNews) – The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, has announced the creation of a fund for addressing the global coronavirus pandemic – and he is simultaneously asking nations to contribute the equivalent of at least 10 percent of the annual income of the entire planet to a massive “human-centered, innovative and coordinated stimulus package” that would be administered at the international level."

"f countries were to accept the plan, the United Nations or some similar coordinating agency would be given the equivalent of approximately 8.7 trillion USD, an unprecedented amount that would be 2,900 times greater than the UN’s annual budget of 3 billion USD."

Yeah, that's not going to happen. In fact, the head of WHO, which I believe is run by the UN, should be fired for spreading ChiCom propaganda about the virus back in January. Big help he was!

Many "Power Plays" are happening.

[/quote]


Good I'll post again.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Daily New Cases in Spain seems to have settled into a trend. The number reported to day is down from 4/2, adding to that perception.

This is good news, but the timeline of it concerns me. In Italy, we saw them reach peak roughly 2 weeks after reaching 100 cases.

Spain appears to be more like 3 weeks.

They're getting hit a bit harder even than Italy, in terms of raw numbers.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Good I'll post again.

I've come to expect nothing different from you. You're rather prolific.


That's a neutral statement, by the way.

[JohnDillworth]

It's referring to Baby Boomers, but of course, most who use the term don't realize most of the people they are referring to are younger than Boomers.

Well, when I was born Eisenhower was President so that makes me kind of old

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I agree, CAP. However, this is only a day or two into the model, so you'd expect it to hit close to the mark. On the other hand, I'd expect big perturbations in daily cases. I didn't mean to suggest that 6% under prediction would be a norm, but rather than the daily comparison would be something to keep an eye on.

Hey, that source predicts 93k deaths in the USA. That's alot of people, but way better than so many other predictions, ranging from the famous "100k to 200k" to the earlier "1.7 million."

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is one of the three charts in the link given by Erik Rutens yesterday (link: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

The image here shows the graph of expected mortality by day in the USA. For April 2, the projection was 1,036. The actual number (by Worldometers) was 968. So nearly 70 below the prediction, or roughly 6%.

If the daily number continues to fall beneath the projection, the death toll will, of course, be lower than projected.

The total mortality projected by this source is 93,000, with a range of 40k to about 178k. If we come in under the 93k, or significantly under, that's going to be remarkable.

Still, a model within 6% of the actual value is pretty damned good. A Hell of a lot better than the daily Racing Form. It does seem someone fed Governor Cuomo some alarmist ventilator need numbers. Even so, it must be a stressful job. The NY Mayor seems to have become a bit unglued. He's still holding up better than Ray Nagin did.

Worth noting that the previous 1.7M was under the assumption that social distancing restrictions were not put in place, either in time or to a sufficient degree.

If that's the 1.7M from Dr. Ferguson at the Imperial College, he's since revised that downwards based on the change in facts on the ground.


I like the model that Erik linked better for the US, however (and which I've seen in at least 1 other place, as I believe I cited a different link perhaps a day before he posted that one). Not going to deny that part of that preference is I'm going to give less credence to a UK researcher on numbers for the US.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

It isn't a far fetched notion that the youngsters might just start seeing this as nature's methodology for culling the overpopulated herd.

May not be long before we Boomers start being seen as expendible.

All people are fungible [:'(].

Nature's way of culling the herd is just called cohort replacement. It happens every day, from the beginning of history until the end of it.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'd seen that report and others previously. Vaping and obesity were suggested as possible reasons.

Similarly, there were certain younger populations in China affected, and the thought there was smoking.

Is vaping really more popular than smoking cigarettes now?

Absolutely. There are some really disturbing trends for underaged vaping that mirror underaged smoking from a few decades prior, and vaping has overtaken smoking among the younger crowd at the very least.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Ian R

The Australian graph is starting to look better.

Seems to be on track for a peak ~2 weeks after first date of 100+ cases (which appears to be March 21). That's good news, and tracks with what we saw in Italy.*

I say good news because it means we can be a bit more certain, and lock out a bit more of the uncertainty.

*Whoops, misread the graph at first glance - cumulative cases is on the right, not the left. Still, looks like a "day 0" (cumulative cases >100) of about March 9-10, and a peak around March 24-26, so that's basically right on target.

[MakeeLearn]

FDIC announces first bank failure of coronavirus crisis
April 3, 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fdic- ... 2020-04-03


"A small bank in West Virginia has become the first institution to fail during the coronavirus crisis, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced Friday. The First State Bank of Barboursville with $152 million in total assets was closed Friday by the West Virginia Division of Financial Institutions. The bank's $139.5 million in deposits will be acquired by MVB Bank Inc. of Fairmont, W.Va. The four branches of The First State Bank will reopen as branches of MVB Bank on Saturday, the FDIC said. "

[Canoerebel]

Your premise is wrong. I'm forthcoming when there's a need to; refraining when there's no need. There's no need here, as I've said before. I don't wish to call out other folks that spoke in the heat of the moment, but if you need to know the posts I was referring to, send me a PM.

I don't know what you mean about me saying something about you in front of everybody else. Whatever I said apparently was not direct (you referred to it as "backhanded" yesterday). Let me know, preferably by PM, and I'll reply.

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Loka, you're peeved about perceived backhanded blasts painting you as a POS (untrue, to my way of thinking) while hammering me clearly and openly.

I'd prefer not to carry on with this in here, but I'm glad to "sit down" and air our grievances privately. It might be fruitful. Maybe not. If you prefer doing it publicly, could we just stand down for awhile and green button each other until things cool a bit?

I don't green button anybody. I see no reason to - I'm perfectly capable on my own of memory-holing somebody's post if it's egregious.

But on topic? Here's what I've got: "OK, buddy." [8|] If you're not comfortable being forthcoming in public about what's under your public implications/accusations, then we're done here and you should drop it. If you've got a good reason under what you've said about me in front of everybody else, then you should let everybody else know what that good reason is - or perhaps you should revisit your prior posts and retract your comments if you're not comfortable citing your factual basis for them (how one perceives a comment made by another is its own form of fact, but you won't tell me that either, it seems).

Show me I'm wrong and I'll issue a sincere mea culpa (and I don't mean that just in this situation), but it seems that you can't (or won't) do that publicly. I'll be waiting if/when you're ready to do so.

[MakeeLearn]

How sewage could reveal true scale of coronavirus outbreak
Wastewater testing could also be used as an early-warning sign if the virus returns.
03 April 2020



https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00973-x


"More than a dozen research groups worldwide have started analysing wastewater for the new coronavirus as a way to estimate the total number of infections in a community, given that most people will not be tested. The method could also be used to detect the coronavirus if it returns to communities, say scientists. So far, researchers have found traces of the virus in the Netherlands, the United States and Sweden."

[MakeeLearn]

Why a coronavirus vaccine takes over a year to produce – and why that is incredibly fast
03 Apr 2020

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/ ... ibly-fast/

"As several companies race to develop a coronavirus vaccine, the public is repeatedly reminded that the finish line is at least 12 to 18 months away.

This timeline feels excruciatingly long as the coronavirus pandemic continues to ravage the world around us. But it deserves some context.

New technologies combined with international cooperation to fight infectious diseases are enabling faster responses to new disease outbreaks, shaving several years from traditional vaccine development timelines. "

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus Live Updates: C.D.C. Recommends Americans Wear Masks, but Trump Stresses It Is Voluntary
Just Now

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/worl ... dates.html


"President Trump said the Centers for Disease Control was recommending that all Americans wear nonmedical masks as a precaution, but said the guidelines were voluntary. “I don’t think I’m going to be doing it,” he said"