T107 – 4 July 1943
Another point worth a post. Steven's material above covers the on map situation. On the northern half I'm sticking to my forts in poor terrain, it'll go in the end but not easily. The south is a bit more violent – I daren't risk a gamble on a pocket, but happy to hit a sector hard if I can – even at a cost of risking counter-attacks.
Main thing now is I've lost the initiative. This is due to the date not to losses, so a few bits worth discussing. First, at a big level the OOBs remain static but I'm still trashing the VVS on a regular basis. Also the Red Army is taking fairly heavy losses.
As indicated, its caviar, schnapps and bratwurst all around for the Heer.
E-Adolf got suspicious when he remembered I'd never reached Stalingrad so he's stopped my replacements. NA went on T103, so a little delayed – but I'm now getting some nice reinforcements as a result.
So the VP. The Soviets will now struggle for auto-wins till they access the 30 VP cities on my side of the 1941 border. There's just not enough in the Soviet Union to get them over those thresholds.
Which makes the end 1944 test vs the HWM worth an analysis. Lets assume nothing dramatic happens in the Theaters (though I am sending bits and pieces and they are gaining from my relatively low losses on map), then the Soviets need +196. If I assume they get all the +6 and that Helsinki is worth 36, then by the time they have pushed me out of the Soviet Union they will have 170 for cities and 66 for time bonus, so 236 (or 40 over). In truth I don't see a way to keep them under the HWM unless I really cost them time bonus. Even then the 60 for Rumania leaves them easily over the limit.
I think I can keep Smolensk and Kiev to deny the time gains, if I can keep the Dnepr bend in play til October then that would make a real difference. Far too early to make any comments about the 1944 cities but I assume that Sevastopol will fall easily – I'd trade that for a controlled retreat into Moldavia etc.
There are also large fortified belts awaiting them on key sectors. I've worked out that these need nearby pri 4 depots and then they build surprisingly rapidly.
Northern half the map, when 16 and 18A crack, they will have to run some distance.
Ukraine, Kharkov is clearly lost, in the N Ukraine I then have a lot of space I can trade off, not so in the southern sector.
PzrA 2 just been withdrawn but I'd planned for that.
Manpower pools are healthy, being very cynical with the Rumanians,using them to hold gaps where I'm sure the Soviets won't dare exploit or to protect my front lines. Basically I can usually repair any losses and in the end I have a clear end date to their use. Being more protective of the Hungarians.
Tank situation is improving. In part off improved production, that I am winning any in-battle trades but also am keeping a lot of the armoured units out of the line – crudely I want the Soviets to be cautious about exploitation.
