Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

2/22/45

NoPac: An interesting clash around Kushiro today that demonstrates the difference between playing the game and playing the war.

Important Allied reinforcements landed at Kushiro. I knew the landing would likely be contested by enemy air. I didn't wish to risk major fighter battles, so rather than posting CAP, I used my smallest, least valuable merchants. Sure enough, Erik's bombers sortied, sinking more than a dozen ships here and close by, most of them low-value (plus a DE, Aussie DD, and a few higher value xAKs).

The Allies succeeded in what I need to achieve, getting the troops ashore without expending the one thing I didn't wish to expend (fighters). But Erik won the op from a gaming standpoint, as my ships cumalatively were worth meaningful points.

From a longer-range gaming standpoint, I'm satisfied that it offered the most efficient way to handle a dicey mission.

Many layers to the onion.

[Lokasenna]

I just thought of that "peeling back the layers of the onion" phrase the other night while I was...peeling back the layers of an onion. The outer layer beneath the skin had started to turn, you see. Like all produce around here, it was a powerful onion. It made me think that the best (and perhaps original?) use of the phrase is in reference to peeling back a layer that makes you cry, only to have to peel back another tear-jerking layer. In essence, one bad thing after another.

I don't think that's what you meant, though...

[Canoerebel]

2/23/45

As a new turn (a new day) begins, the biggest question is whether Erik is withdrawing from, or reinforcing, Bihoro.

Kushiro: Lots of Japanese sweeps over Kushiro find no CAP. The airways are clear for Japanese strike aircraft to finish off the little transports that unloaded a bunch of engineers and an AA unit.

[Canoerebel]

2/23/45

No-Longer-Contested Hex: Erik's bombers are targeting the small but useful units here; beating them up badly. I'm weighing whether or not to intervene, based upon some more significant needs that may or may not occur over the next few days.

[Canoerebel]

2/23/45

Etorofu: The past two days, it's been Ki-83s vs. F4U-1s and P-39s. My obsolete aircraft have actually held their own. This turn, I'll evaluate this more carefully - is it worth coming out 1:2 or 1:3 in these attacks if it keeps the Ki-83s busy and somewhat tuckered out?

[Canoerebel]

2/23/45

Bihoro: A large, well-coordinated raid with lots of heavies at 10k against no fighter opposition does very little damage.

Regular readers have seen this alot. I have too, of course. And it mirrors the at-sea bombardments. Simply tepid results.

This will factor heavily in my decision about how to handle Bihoro should Erik elect to make a stand here.

My bomber pilots are very experienced, high morale, etc. I cannot figure out why they preform so poorly. AA has something to do with it, but sheesh.

[Canoerebel]

2/23/45

Bihoro: Ditto this raid. There were lots more small raids with proportionally small results.

If my air force and navy have trouble denting Bihoro, I think my decision is made. I won't fight here if Erik makes a stand.

I have other places I want to go. I don't want to blunt my air force against an (apparently) hardened target, nor get tied down here indefinitely in a place Erik wants to fight and apparently can.

[BillBrown]

Heavy rain might be the issue.

[Canoerebel]

2/23/45

Kuriles: The ingressing herd is escorted by a number of carriers, whose strike aircraft finish off a bunch of ACMs in the upper islands.

I forgot to stand down my strike aircraft. I'm glad Erik didn't have CAP up that might have made me blush.

The ingressing herd is about seven hexes or so east of the egressing herd and Death Star.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

Heavy rain might be the issue.

I didn't even take note of that, Bill. Thanks for pointing it out.

I know that weather has a decided affect on whether aircraft will sortie/fly missions, but (dumb question, I admit) does it also have an material impact on bombing results?

[Canoerebel]

2/23/45

Kushiro: Enemy resistance eliminated.

After mulling things over for days, I'm satisfied that this base is secure even though I don't plan to post CAP over it (my fighters would get chewed on, which I cannot afford - I can only afford to fight in places where I have an advantage).

Erik doesn't like attacking bases with good AA, and I think he'll be leery of deploying ships. His navy is too weak to chance mishaps against mines or PT boats or whatever I might send here from time to time.

[Canoerebel]

2/23/45

Bihoro: Erik has reinforced with 4th Div., a mixed brigade and an amphibious brigade.

I'm mulling things over a bit more, but I've about decided to pull my army back to Kushiro. It will take some hits on the way, but I'll use DS if necessary (though hopefully not for a week or so, as DS needs to replenish aircraft, etc.)

I absolutely believe Erik made the right call here. I was hoping to run a successful bluff that might persuade him to abandon the base. I thought I had about a 50% chance of succeeding. Had bombardment results and air attacks been as strong as I'd expected, I think it would've worked.

[RangerJoe]

[quote12.1 WEATHER
In addition to these weather zones, the map has been divided into 9 quadrants on the Weather
Map. Each of these weather quadrants will generate a different weather forecast for all hexes
in their quadrant. Offensive Missions can be aborted after all preparations have been made,
but prior to take-off, due to bad weather over the air unit’s base or over the intended target. A
message will display if this occurs. The aircraft will not fly another Mission during that Air Strike
phase. The weather at each base or target is determined each air phase, and is not linked to
prior weather at that location. Each base is checked each air phase for its weather independent
of all other bases. Each day a weather forecast is generated for each hex on the map based
on the forecast in the hex’s quadrant. Also the forecasted weather in the current hex is given
in the menu bar at top and for a base hex on the base orders screen. This weather forecast
impacts the check that is done at each base each phase to see if the base will have weather
bad enough to cause a cancellation of Missions. The forecast levels from best weather to
worst are clear, partly cloudy, overcast, rain (snow in cold zones in winter), and thunderstorms
(blizzard in cold zones in winter).
If the Advanced Weather Effects option is switched Off, the weather forecasts will always be
Partly Cloudy (except for turn 1 which will be clear). If it is switched On, a different weather
forecast will be generated every Day: Clear, Partly Cloudy, Overcast, Rain, Thunderstorms (turn
1 is always clear). The worse the weather that day, the greater the likelihood of an air Mission
missing the target, or even of being grounded before takeoff. With advanced weather, the
weather forecast in each quadrant from day to day will generally change slowly (moving only
up or down one level), but sometimes it can change dramatically from one day to the next.quote]

I will look some more elsewhere as well. But between the weather and the fortifications, you may not be able to do much.

As far as the bombing in the clear hex, do you have any extra AAA units that can go in? With radar, that should hurt his bombers.

[Canoerebel]

I don't have any AA to spare on Hokkaido, but I'd spare them anyway if they could reach the hex in time. But the road system in this corner is abysmal. It would take 8 or 9 days for the AA unit to move and then as long to return. I'd rather use LRCAP or Death Star CAP if things get really dicey for my army retiring from Bihoro.

[Lokasenna]

Any designs on bringing the giant AA Regiments from India...eventually? May be too late now, the war might be over by the time they get there.

RE: the Ki-83's - don't forget that even if trading 1:2 or 1:3 is worthwhile to you in terms of opportunity cost on airframes alone, allowing his (presumably elite) pilots to get (even more) elite from experience gains from kills may swing it into the "not worthwhile on most days" column.

Also, being SR-3, the Ki-83 can't really sweep more than 3 days in a row.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Lokasenna. I hadn't taken experience gain into consideration. Too many layers to the onion for me to keep count.

[HansBolter]

The Kiwi's have some large AA brigades as well if you ever bought them out

[Canoerebel]

That "expendables TF" (low-value xAP and xAK) brought in a big Kiwi unit to Kushiro just a few days ago. Kushiro will rely almost exclusively on AA for defense against strike aircraft. My fighters cannot go toe-to-toe that far forward, except under occasional and very specific circumstances.

Alot of Allied AA is in NoPac, with more inbound. Since I have to concentrate my fighters for self-preservation, alot of the AA defense is left to flak units.

[Canoerebel]

2/23/45

NoPac: The Allies have a massive base of operations in the Kuriles, Sikhalin and Hokkaido. The navy is magnificent and dwarfs (sort of) the enemy naval forces. Air, sea and land forces have just engaged in a superb op that went pretty much as planned, wresting Kushiro from enemy clutches.

And yet....what a slog this is. What a grueling campaign. And I'm fighting defensively more than offensively, really.

All that becasue Japan controls the air war, except one or two spots that I have supremacy (over Death Star and, arguably, over Shikuka).

For the next few weeks, I'll concentrate on extracting my army from Bihoro and attending to the remaining Kuriles held by Japan. While that's going on Allied troops are prepping for the next next big thing. I like the plan but it has real, real challenges. The biggest question is - can I afford to leave NoPac to look out for itself for a month or more, or might Erik manage to overrun some of my holdings?

[Lokasenna]

The combination of high durability Allied LCUs (lots of built-in artillery/AA/etc.), anemic payloads on Japanese bombers, effectiveness of Allied AA weaponry, and low durability of Japanese bombers all add up to my conclusion that it's not necessary to waste CAP time over LCUs for the sake of the LCUs. With supply and a properly mixed force, Allied units post-1943 can take care of themselves vs. bombers. CAP/LRCAP should only be used when shooting down enemy planes is the goal.