The First Team: Take Two!

[John 3rd]

I concur with my partner.  Great set of questions!  Hartwig speaks about coordination between Brad and I and he is right.  let me show the exchange of emails this morning in talking down the current (2/8) turn and planning for the next:



Subject: Turn to You
Date: Thu, 12 Feb 2009 08:53:42 -0600

I probably have one more turn to do before going out of town, so I'll start sending some thoughts and directions.

Note we had a Walrus sighting off Colombo.  I think the RN is docked there.  I would advocate a port raid by Car Div 2; you can sneak up on Colombo from due south at flank speed.  AAR guys will tell you never dock the RN in Ceylon for this reason; too easy to port raid.

INDIA:  All the Lingayen troops are headed to Malaya; supplies are being gathered at Saigon, we should have 50K or so for the trip. 

CHINA:  The attack at Yenan failed, but that's not uexpected.  More troops will reach the hex shortly, try again with those reinforcements when disruption is down.  I bet it falls easy.  After that, start marching units back to the rail line; I don't advocate a march toward Sian, that looks like an impossible target.

SUMATRA:  There is an NLF landing at Benkolen in a couple days.  Pick up and land at Padang after that.  The Palembang attack is on its way, save for that unit that decided to march into a swamp for whatever reason!  I hate when that happens. 

MALAYA:  21st Div arrives in a couple days, maybe that is the tipping point.  If not, all those troops from Lingayen SURELY can clear it, no?  We need to take this, though the day after it falls, we load up for India.

AUSTRALIA:  It's on auto-pilot.

REINFORCEMENTS:  We get a whole stack of base forces and Nav Gd units in a couple days.  We need 2 small BF and a Special BF around the Northern Oz, as well as construction troops; we need to get a ring of bases established there.  I would load another special to take to India, and maybe a couple more BF.  All the SNLF?  I would take a couple to India.  If we want more oomph in Cent Pac, we can put about 4 of those in Phillipines, and lift out 65th Bde for Truk.  Others can go out to the Pacific.

[/i]This is my response to him:

You are correct--we have a crapload of troops coming in.  If you can get anymore specific with anything let me know but I should be able to work with what is listed below.

FORMOSA--Noticed that we still have significant air units in Takao, Formosa.  There is a full Aviation Regiment and two fragments of Spec/Aviation Regiments located in that hex.

NW AUST--Need to be careful with grabbing Wyndham in getting close to Darwin.  Imagine they only have Hudsons there but one doesn't know...

CONCERN--Have you noticed (or perhaps NOT noticed) that we haven't seen a B-17 since we pounded the crap out of them at the start?  I'll wager they are in India (no reason but a gut feeling).

CARDIV2--Moving CarDiv2 into a position equa-distant between the Maldives and Columbo.  Will move it into striking range the next turn with the planes set to Naval Attack/Port Attack--Columbo.  Prefer to get them at sea and SINK them' however, damage to ANY RN ship will help our landings.

SE PAC--KB is moving nicely towards its target.  Suva falls this turn.  What do you think for 56th Inf Div?  It needs to rest and rebuild some but should we use it again?  Does it need to join the SSF at Gisbome?

CHINA--Am pulling a China Brigade back from Pucheng.  It has been knocked down to 40 of 50 and will only cost 700 Pol Points.  Am moving an Inf Div to strengthen attack there.

BURMA--Gonna scrape the bottom of the bucket and improvise a landing at Akyab.  Would love to use Paras but want them at full strength,  Any suggestions here?  Starting Zero Sweeps today with Dacca.


I truly recommend players trying a 2x2.  It is a blast but one has to make sure the pairing is a solid fit.  Brad and I have similar styles and we 'talk' really well through email.  Think it is safe to say we have learned a lot about the game, tactics, and have a strong regard for each other.  His work in the DEI Campaign--I believe--is masterful.

As to changes?  Not sure...  Some reactions though:

1.  I HATE Sir Robin and that is what we are dealing with.  Places that SHOULD be fought for are not.  This defense only serves to embolden the Japanese.  Now some might say that is good and bad but Brad and I seem to be taking it all in pretty well and covering our bases as we move forward.  Allied players NEVER seemingly understand that standing and fighting is what they should do because it upsets the timetable of conquest and ANY losses inflicted cannot be replaced by the Japanese.

2.  Singapore is a HUGE frustration.  Brad drove the Allies right down the peninsula and even picked off a few units before they could retreat into the city; however, it made no difference.  We now have more troops then I EVER use attacking there and are not making much progress.  The reinforcements will do the trick as well as a BB Bombardment probably.  This point refers to the first.  The fighting HERE is vastly slowing us down from our true objective...

3.  Don't think I will ever do a 6 CV attack on PH again.  Our attack at PH was fantastic and showed no downside to only being 4 CV.  This campaign has demonstrated the pure power of having a real CarDiv down in the DEI from Day 1.  Add to that the SS we sunk at Manila on Day 1 and it is golden!

4.  LOGISTICS!  The KB would be pounding the living Hell out of the Papeate region right now if I hadn't miscalculated on fuel at Noumea.  This mistake has cost us 10 precious days of time where we have seen the AF at Papeate move from Lvl-1 to now 3. 

Hope that helps to answer your questions...




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[Canoerebel]

Two comments:

1) Are you sure you need several divisions prepping for Viz? The Allies have a heck of alot of important bases to try to adequately garrison in India, so Viz is likely vacant or will have a small garrison. Would you be better served prepping some of those divisions for targets you will/should have to fight for after you've taken Viz?

2) Why do you hate Sir Robin? Why do you think they aren't standing and fighting where you think they should? Sir Robin is reasonable and in the hands of experienced players wise. Sure, they're aren't messing up your progress at the moment, but they have plenty of time and territory to give up. They'll be perfectly fine unless you deliver a blow (India) that staggers them, because that's territory they can't afford to give up. You've done nothing to stagger them yet (even though you're doing great and have taken alot of territory).

[John 3rd]

Here is the next set of emails today.  I am headed out to see my Father so (other then a post on Forlorn Hopes) I need to bogey out:

56th Div is not needed at Gisbourne; SSF is plenty to hold it through mid-42 at least.  Not sure what to do with 56th Div; Pago Pago maybe?  Everything else either has too many troops for 1 division to take (Auckland), or is empty (Tonga).  Either way, I do not advocate garrisoning that area down there heavily; defend with airpower, and when we lose that, then pull everyone out.  The only point of that advance really is to lengthen their supply lines, and occupy the attention of the USN; make the Pacific feel small.

RE: Pucheng, we get 2 divisions in China shortly as reinforcements; maybe move them there. 

On PP, it is a legitimate tactic to flip battered units, as they cost less PP, and probably have some experience.  Remember rotation; you could drop that Bde in Phillipines, and take out 65th Bde. 

Once Yenan is taken, we have some decisions in China, but overall I don't see alot of opportunity.  Some initial thoughts:

1.  Capture Paotow; it's isolated, easy VPs.
2.  Capture Pucheng; same deal
3.  Form large armies, and move them into the largest Chinese production centers, like Changsha.  Why?  Doing so will stop all production in the hex.
4.  Bring in ALOT of bombers; start a strategic bombing campaign, wipe out all Resource and Industry we can.

This last is important; if we cut the troops off in Burma, they can draw supply from China.  But if there is no supply in China.....they will slowly starve, or at least be unable to launch any offensive ops.

We probably need to create an offensive posture/stalemate in China.  Killing supply is key there.

I need to see if we have a HR regarding bombing in China.  Any China experts or not so experts out there who want to jump on for a strategy conference?

RE:  Sir Robin--The Japanese conduct their operations on a string and any upsetting of that causing longer-term issues.  The loss of ANY warships have grave consequences later.  Look at our game in Forlorn Hopes.  One of the worst moments in that game was when I was threatening  southern Australia and brought in Fuso and Yamashiro for a bombardment against a town I KNEW had TB.  I lost both BB due to your resistance and my stupidity.  Consequence:  Late-1944 and I only have 3 heavy warships left in the entire Kaigun.  That is why the Howe and Valiant haven't been challenged in Malaya.  With Singapore gone it will be interesting to see what you plan to do Mr. Roper!  [:D][X(][:D]

[2ndACR]

I would take Yenan and then move on the 3 northern Chinese cities.......then they have to choose, let you take them and then risk having a really big force come down south and basically cut off Sian. It sort of un-hinges the forward defense. Plus the northern cities have HI and oil. The oil loss will hurt the allies in China.
 
Then, once Sian is taken, leave 1100AV or so in Sian and whatever garrison troops the northern cities require. Every one else heads for Changsha. I would be bombing every base possible 1 base at a time to create damage to prevent fort building. Plus it causes them to burn supplies.
 
I concur......I would be prepping for Madras and Calcutta.........Take V by para and land unopposed then move out.......3 div to Madras, 4-5 div to Calcutta and the armor cutting a swath of destruction up the middle and chopping supply lines everywhere. The allies do not have any where near enough troops. Worst case, you land on top of the 18th UK at V, send in heavy bombardment fleet and then land 8 div's on top of it or divert to another base for your landing. Either way.......you have the mass to bull your way thru.
 
I would leave Akyab alone.......the object it to create pressure and occupy them with Burma. Threaten the flank too much and they might panic. You want all those troops in Burma when you hit India.......the object is to cut Burma off from India supply wise. Then all those troops in Burma are just grapes waiting to be picked. Let them stall you in Burma.......keep alot of force facing them........maybe send a disinformation along with the turn......."Burma is being a pain in the butt, not enough supply getting forward to keep the attacks up, Rangoon destroyed upon capture and eating supply repairing etc".
 
Sopac.......I would take the 56th Div and bring it back to Noumea as a mobile reserve.........maybe take all the bases along the Suva line, Canton etc.......form a small wall between them and Tarawa. Because I would bet money that once you fall on India, they start to apply alot of pressure on the Pacific.
 
I also hate Sir Robins.......makes the game boring........I think they are turtling until late 42-43. Get alot of AA upgrades, mass troops etc before making a move. Until the "OH CRAP"!!!!!! factor sets in over India.

[Q-Ball]

2nd ACR: Good suggestions, though a couple points.

1. We haven't been bombing Chinese cities to prevent forts, probably should have though. Too many bomb targets, not enough bombers.
2. There are 16 units at Sian. Probably too tough a nut to crack. Maybe I am wrong?
3. Vizingapatam, as well as all towns on the Indian East Coast, are garrisoned. We haven't buzzed Viz enough to tell so as not to tip it off, but we have to assume the worst: 1 BF unit, and 1 Indian Division. Landing at Madras is nuts (urban hex), the other option is a landing on the SW coast.

We're probably paranoid about landing so much on Viz, but the absolute worst thing in WITP, IMO, is landing an invasion that fails to take the base. I HATE being STUCK! I love when it happens to my opponent.

[2ndACR]

1. All it takes in China is 1 Sally group bombing a base per turn to inflict damage to slow forts down......Chinese do not have engineer vehicles so it takes them longer to repair.
 
2. That is alot of troops, but think about this........northern army takes all the cities up north above Sian and starts moving south......a couple units move towards Sian from south.......once you start cutting his supply lines, well then they either run for the hills or starve as you start bombing the airfields for supply hits. Even 16 units with no supplies is fairly easy meat. Key is to force them to decide what to do.
 
3. Well, then do limited recon of Ceylon.......if lightly held, drop 4 divs there and land on the south-west coast and begin your blitz from there. Longer to Calcutta, but trust me......it takes along time to get those troops from Burma up to India proper to help. I had 150 Dakotas and C47's airlifting troops for about 3 months and Japan still conquered India. Once Japan grabs 3-4 bases producing 300+ supply per turn plus HI, and all the supply you will overrun, India is a done deal.
 
Heck, if your HR does not prevent it, land over the beach somewhere and begin the march from there. Nothing like having div's running around with 8000+ supply in them until you take a base to dump it in.

[John 3rd]

We have an interesting development with our team play this weekend.  Both Brad and Paul are gone so Steve and I have the power to control the universe.  Course this is all an illusion of power since I got detailed orders from Brad before he left!  Point is with just the two of us the odds are we'll double turn production on Fri--Sat--Sun.

The Allies are about to get a double whammy.  There are RN ships at Ceylon and carDiv2 is about to attack.  With Shoho present I have 152 aircraft to strike with.  Should be a fun surprise since nearly all Brit Fighters are over Calcutta right now!

Within a couple days of that attack the KB will strike the Society Island area with--hopefully--devastating effect...

[John 3rd]

We have found the Royal Navy at Columbo!

My ships ONLY had to move 7 hexes. DD fuel was good so; therefore, they decide to refuel and fix it so the CV only more 6 and so the Kates attack from long-range. Nothing to really complain about though since we did get some sinkings that help on the ASW Front...

[John 3rd]

In an ooooppppsss move, the Japanese strike Columbo...

[John 3rd]

Big things are brewing in the SE PAC!

[Nemo121]

Hartwig:

I think there are a couple of issues that the Japanese team here need to be concerned with.

1. Singapore: They have undercommitted to this and I think the balance between operations run in parallel vs series is incorrect. By phasing things a little differently I think they could achieve more of their objectives within a given time frame than they will be spreading their forces in order to run operations in parallel. Most importantly their losses will be significantly higher when running these operations in parallel consequent to the Lanchester Laws ( which hol or most WiTP combat but do break down a bit at the margins.... as previously demonstrated in the numbers vs CAP discussion ).


2. Derby, Broome etc... These aren't killing blows and they aren't setting up truly strategically significant killing blows. As such I wouldn't bother with them. When you have the potential superiority enjoyed by the Japanese in this game you should disdain swordplay and, instead, like any good Samurai look for a single, clean killing stroke.


3. Lashio: Abandoning this to the chinese is utterly incorrect. It is a strategic blunder of immense proportions and its possible import overmatches that of the other two points noted combined.

a) You do NOT let the Chinese into action where supplies are good. Doing so invites them to become much stronger than at game start.

b) You do NOT sit at Meiktila and leave 500 tons of supplies into China per day when you could sit at Lashio and cut off those supplies.

c) You do NOT let the Chinese sit there with nothing to do. Eventually even a mediocre player is going to decide to ue them to advance on your forces in Burma.




Canoerebel,

I think that Alfred would agree with me that while a withdrawal trading space for time is certainly viable what we mostly see Allied players doing is running like hell and thinking that that's going to slow the enemy down a lot. The Allied materiel surplus allows players to get away with a lot of very poor strategic thought and this is an example of that.



Overall I think the Japanese in this game are playing a very good game but I think that they really need to re-adjust the balance of parallel to series operations and need to look at Lashio. If I was playing as Allies here not taking Lashio would see Burma in my hands within 2 months and a concerted thrust to reinforce India and also push through the trails into Thailand etc within 3 months. That would prevent India falling and give the Allies victory 12 to 18 months earlier than would otherwise be possible. Lashio MUST be contested.

[John 3rd]

Will comment to Nemo's good thinking in a bit as I need to run a Forlorn Hopes turn as we speak so Dan has someone to pummel on a Sunday! [8D]

[vettim89]

I have to agree with Nemo here. Brave Sir Robin may seem logical but it rarely does what the Allies want. In my game with Larry (Big B 1.4), I pulled eight BF's out of the PI an DEI and nothing more. I held Singapore into Feb 1942 and Java until April. THe big kicker though is that I held Manilla until the middle of May with Larry throwing the kitchen sink at it. This greatly affected the course of the game. Becasue so many resources were tied down elsewhere, the Japanese offensive in Burma was stopped on the doors of Mandaly and Lashio. Not only did this keep China in play but when the UK/Commonwelath had built up enough force in 1943, the swept the IJA out of Burma in short order. As an Allied player, I think Mandalay and Lashi are the two most important base for the Japanese to take on Andrew Brown's map. This will change in AE but it is very relevant to the current situation as we have it. In Mandrake's game, John and Dan's game, and mine and Larry's game, it has been shown that failure to evict and hold the Allies troops out of Burma greatly affects the Japanese postion late in the war.

[Mobeer]

How can you be so cruel as to write a caption "Isn't this a lovely image ??!!" when it clearly shows Hibiki on fire?

[Canoerebel]

There are different definitions of Sir Robin.  In my game with John I left everything at Manila and held the base until something like June '42.  When I say, "Sir Robin," I'm referring to the Allies remaining on the the defensive and protecting ships.  IE, not sending brigades and TFs forward trying to hold Noumea, Port Moresby, etc.  If you try some kind of forward defense against John, you're doomed.  He's so aggressive and good at projecting power that your losses will be costly.  So the version of Sir Robin employed by his opponents in this game is what I'm talking about - they've done well so far (even though John and Q-Ball are doing well too).  Now, if your opponent is inexperienced, it's a different story.

I concur with the others who have emphasized the importance of Lashio and Mandalay.  It won't be fun for John and Q-Ball if they end up fighting in India on two fronts - the Chinese around Mandalay and the British and Indians elsewhere.  It's possible that the window of opporunity has already closed for them.  I don't think they can retake Lashio now, and their opponents can keep pouring troops through that door, making the task of capturing India alot more difficult if not impossible.  IMHO this operation turned on taking and holding Lashio.

[2ndACR]

I don't agree........If they cut Burma/China off from Calcutta area......they will starve the Chinese and Burma army from lack of supply. Yes, they must keep decent amounts of troops neat/at Lashio to contain, but combine India with bombing China causing either resource loss and burning supply and the allies have serious problems.
 
I know, Nemo has basically done it to me. Granted I still hold Calcutta, but it's days are numbered. China is basically a waste land resource wise from his strategic bombing. I have the supply to basically hold, but not go to the offensive.
 
Keep 2 major units in Lashio (a div and heavy brigade) and that is a big road block. 600 AV against the poor Chinese that has to be supplied over trails. The tide has yet to turn IMO. India and it's huge supply base is the key. Without it, the allies in Burma and China wither and die.

[John 3rd]

OK.  I have been getting the turns in pretty quickly with Steve and haven't had a real chance to provide some thinking here.

I don't like leaving Lashio to the Chinese but feel that Japan doesn't have the ooommpph to place a blocking force in front of 8 Chinese Divisions AND look back over their shoulder at 12 Allied units in Mandalay.  There are currently 2 1/2 Inf Div and 3 TK Reg in Burma.  Both Parachute Regiments are here also but they are not going to be operationally deployed until India is attacked.

We are constrained by the AF in the area right now.  Taung Gyi just went to Sz-2, Meiktila will hit Sz-2 as well tomorrow, and Magwe is well on its way to Sz-5.  Add that to Rangoon and we can add 150 more planes into the region.  It is my hope to bomb these units into some shape where we can do something.  There is NO Forts getting built right now.  Mandalay gets about 80 bombers a day, Lashio is hit by a similar number, and Akyab is seeing 50-60 everyday.  The Allies have left the air to us for the moment.

Singapore--after a heroic fight--is on the downhill slide and could fall any day.  The troops pulled out of the Philippines are already loaded and waiting at Johore Bharu.  The MOMENT Singapore falls we can begin the realistic loading for Viza, India.


Should add something more to this note.

We now have Wyndham, Derby, Broome, and Exmouth Bay on Australia's coast. 

Gisbome, New Zealand just fell on the 17th to the South Seas Force. 

The KB is rampaging around the Society Islands having sunk 8 DD, 20 AK, and a TK.  More shipping will be added tomorrow to this total.

I'd say we're doing OK considering these are SECONDARY theatres of the war and are being done on a shoestring...
  

[John 3rd]

Screenshot 1 of 2:

[John 3rd]

Hosanna! If this base had been trashed like Balikpapan we would have been in REAL trouble...

[2ndACR]

How many goats and kids did you sacrifice?