Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

The "placid" waters of the Western DEI...

[witpqs]

Some of the economic mods being done on DsBabes baseline are in recognition of the fact that Japan does not face the economic and merchant fleet constraints in-game that she did IRL. I'm sure there are variables and some experienced IJ player with a good sense of that game economy could give you some dates, but going by those discussion (in the scenario design and modding sub-forum) basically he just does not need the oil all that early. And as you are playing a game where an IJ attempt at auto-victory was stipulated going in, well, who knows exactly what and when he plans for the DEI?

[Canoerebel]

Burma: all quiet here.

(Note: I didn't stipulate that the Japanese player should go for an auto victory; rather, I just made an observation that auto victory is a possibility in Scenario Two).

[Canoerebel]

The situation in China as of 1/15/42. The Japanese are present in large numbers from Sinyang to Chengchow, and there is a sizeable IJA stack across the river from Hengyang.

The Chinese will try to hold Hengyang and are building an MLR in the forests east of Sian.

[Canoerebel]

The Allies tried to reclaim lightly-held Amchitka Island, but the Allied commander botched that. Now Japan has reacted by sending in reinforcements covered by Shokaku and Zuikaku. Interesting disclosure of the Japanese player's mindset, I think, that he would divide the KB and that he cares this much about Amchitka.

The Allies will not go for Amchitka in early 1942. Steve will have enough time to manage his defenses and can afford to commit more than I can. What I will try to do over the coming months is to strengthen the Allied garrisons at important bases and out-build airfield facilities so that Amchitka doesn't end up "ruling the skies." At present, Amchitka is a level zero airfield.

[witpqs]

Oh! I had thought that an auto-victory attempt was agreed upon, I misunderstood your early posts.

[Canoerebel]

I wonder if Steve is under the same impression? I hope not.

Another item to ponder. With Shokaku and Zuikaku in the Aleutians, at present, I doubt Steve is contemplating some humongous "leap forward" in the near future. He'd probably want to marshall all his forces to invade Hawaii, eastern Oz, New Zealand, or the major SoPac Islands. Shokaku and Zuikaku are in position to lend a hand in Hawaii over the coming weeks, but certainly not more distant operations.

I interpret this to mean that no huge auto-victory threatening move is pending for Hawaii in the next week or so, and nothing in SoPac or SWPac for many weeks. The USN carriers are assured of temporary local parity or superiority when they reach SoPac in a week or ten days. So I feel secure in continuing the major emphasis on reinforcing Sumatra.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I wonder if Steve is under the same impression? I hope not.

Well, it might have been an impression that I got in your Q-Ball AAR when you discussed contemplating posting an opponent wanted solicitation, and I don't know if Steve was a reader there?

[paullus99]

Either way, your opponent is moving along very slowly given the resources at his disposal - and splitting up the KB does potentially mean he'll have to postpone whatever decisive operation he may have planned (if he has one in the works - which I would suspect he must). Even in the normal scenario, the Japanese player can make a bid for India or Australia (and perhaps Hawaii as well - though only one), so here his hesitation is indeed very interesting.

It will make the coming battles, once he does get the gears of war moving again, that much more bloody - but that does continue to work in your favor here, given his drawback after the original bloody noses your gave him.

[fodder]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Oh! I had thought that an auto-victory attempt was agreed upon, I misunderstood your early posts.

You are not alone.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Gents,

Pardon me for being very discriminatory here, but I am looking for a top-notch IJ player. I'm warning you, I'm going to be very selective, but I need the Japanese player to be aggressive, very experienced, and with a long, long, stellar track record in the forums (IE, somebody known to be reliable).

This will be Scenario Two (or a similar mod giving Japan a number of advantages to work with).

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I am interested in Scenario Two because I think it gives Japan a pretty good chance of auto victory if handled by a reasonably aggressive and very experienced IJA player.

[Canoerebel]

Right. I stated my opinion about Scenario Two. It seems clear (to me) that I wasn't insisting/specifying that my opponent shoot for auto victory.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right. I stated my opinion about Scenario Two. It seems clear (to me) that I wasn't insisting/specifying that my opponent shoot for auto victory.

I just went back and skimmed that long thread in the OW forum. You didn't specify AV, but wanted an opponent who would keep you on your toes from Day 1.

Even though this one isn't going as most do, could we agree you're on your toes? [:)]

Aside on Z. and S. being split from the KB (your opponent has not talked of strategic goals in his AAR for many weeks)--does every potential AV target rate the full KB at this stage of the war?

[Canoerebel]

AV targets in the DEI don't rate full KB as Steve can utilize LBA. I'd say that essentially every AV target in CenPac and SoPac - excepting probably Port Moresby and maybe Luganville - would require full KB. Unless he's willing to count on surprise, or unless he figures he knows the whereabouts of the American carriers, he would want full KB to move on Hawaii, Suva, Pago Pago, Noumea, New Zealand and NE Oz. I'll have my carriers down there in two weeks looking for opportunities.

As always, Bullwinkle, your insights are much appreciated.

P.S. Has a certain momentous ceremony occurred in your life or is it still pending? When is the big day?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

AV targets in the DEI don't rate full KB as Steve can utilize LBA. I'd say that essentially every AV target in CenPac and SoPac - excepting probably Port Moresby and maybe Luganville - would require full KB. Unless he's willing to count on surprise, or unless he figures he knows the whereabouts of the American carriers, he would want full KB to move on Hawaii, Suva, Pago Pago, Noumea, New Zealand and NE Oz. I'll have my carriers down there in two weeks looking for opportunities.

As always, Bullwinkle, your insights are much appreciated.

P.S. Has a certain momentous ceremony occurred in your life or is it still pending? When is the big day?

Discounting the USN carriers, which he may (I say may, as his AAR is very "log-booky" and not a musing) assume you have stashed based on past performance, are Oz or NZ, to pick two (or really India either at this point in history), really such air powers in the first months where four IJN fleet carriers couldn't handle themselves, perhaps with mini-KB for flankers?

On the other, no, not yet. We applied for a license last Friday, and MN has a five-day waiting period. Still waiting for the #&*@# jeweler to stop going to trade shows and finish her ring. Then we have to find a date for some people to be free to fly in, and far enough out they can get decent air fares. So, I'm guessing June now. At least it'll be nice outside if we do that. Thanks for asking though. I already feel married, I like being married, and I just want to GET married. The first one, in a flippin' cathedral (Duke Chapel), didn't seem like this much logistics. Of course, for that one, I didn't do much more than show up in the monkey suit. [8D]

[Canoerebel]

Are all you AE friends invited? We would behave....

As for the carrier question, I feel pretty sure the losses Steve took early in the game rattled him enough that he's leary of sticking his assets out too far. He doesn't strike me as a risk taker anyway, so I seriously doubt he'll leap forward without all of his carriers present. In the near term, say the next two weeks, I can't imagine a big move anywhere except the DEI, Port Moresby, or Luganville. In the next month, I can't conceive of anything further than Hawaii, Fiji, New Caledonia, and NE Oz. Those targets are all acceptable to the Allies in that time frame, because in a month the critical Allied logistical chain (Indian troops to Sumatra, American troops to India) will be in full operation.

[John 3rd]

As I Posted last page this strategy isn't making sense to me.

You are in Scenario 2 which is a JFB extravaganza (it is so extreme in that direction I refuse to play it). Why he hasn't manifested a serious thrust ANYWHERE is simply beyond my comprehension. You are five-to-six weeks into the war and his focus should already be apparent.

The failure to attack even basic targets seriously (Singers, Palembang, Timor, etc...) is crazy. Perhaps there is a greater plan at work, however, I don't see it. Splitting the KB (a favorite activity of mine) is dangerous at this point. Your 3-4 CVs could make mincemeat of his dispersed heavies.

Don't know the OOB for the Japanese in Scen 2. What additional starting CV, if any, do they get?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Don't know the OOB for the Japanese in Scen 2. What additional starting CV, if any, do they get?

I don't think they get any extras, but Shinano might, and I say might as I haven't checked, arrive as a Taiho (sp?) class.

However, his TBs are light-years ahead of Devastators, and make a 4-on-4 battle an Allied slaughter. 2-on-4 maybe a different outcome, but how many players are going to send 4 USN CVs to the Aleutians in the first winter?

[Canoerebel]

1/16/42

A Japanese invasion of Kendari is underway. This is a step towards taking control of the eastern DEI, but it is good in that Japan is still exhibiting a tendency to seek short, step-by-step progress in this region. At this rate, the Allies still have time - several weeks, maybe a month or more - to attend to Sumatra. This is a good thing.

Eastern DEI: BB Yamashiro, CA Kako, CS Mizuho, and probably other ships are escorting the troop transports that have arrived at Kendari, but haven't begun unloading. Allied bombers sortied in small and ineffective numbers.

Western DEI: I am really enjoying the effort to create the Fortress Palembang. It gives me something proactive to work on - something that requires coordination with most of the rest of the map - so that it's challenging and fulfilling. Oosthaven AV to 421 (forts 2.09); Palembang to 754 (3.08); Singapore 837 (3.59). I'm going to shuffle a few units around in keeping with preparation. Palembang's AV will increase and Oosthaven's will decrease. An Indian brigade prepping for Benkholen will arrive in four or five days. This will offer some protection to that base on the south coast. Question: Can the enemy invade Djambi (west of Palembang) by sea, or is that river too small? If it can be invade by sea, how important is garrisoning it in your opinion? I dont have the troops yet, but I need to think about it). Japan finally took Alor Star. The Allied AV at Port Blair is 60.

India: Another Indian brigade is loading at Colombo. Two British brigades and two Aussie brigades are in the Arabian Sea, probably a good ten days to two weeks from Sumatra. I'm temporarily out of troop transports in India, leaving me unable to bring forward another UK brigade and another Indian brigade. Lots of American aircraft squadrons have begun arriving at Capetown (I set this transfer system up from East Coast at the outset of the game). Most of these are going to India. A few will go directly to Sumatra.

China: No enemy advances yet. The Hengyang garrison is up to 2300 behind 3 forts.

Luzon: The final Clark Field AV will be about 1650 behind four forts with 16000 supplies on hand. That should last awhile.

NoPac: No sign of Shokaku and Zuikaku today.

CenPac: Lex and Sara are heading for Tahiti where they will refuel. Ent and York will leave San Diego tomorrow, also bound for Tahiti. From there, I may leave my carriers in SoPac, or I may move them into the Indian Ocean.

[Canoerebel]

If Steve is truly taking a methodical, step-by-step approach in the DEI, it gives the Allies a layer of defenses in advance of Palembang since Singapore, Borneo, and Java remain in Allied hands. So it seems that Steve is currently focusing on what is the "next layer" of targets for him. I don't even detect any reconnaissance beyond that layer. IE, he doesn't seem to be paying any attention to eastern Sumatra at the moment. I'm still not positive whether this is by design or pure neglect.

[Cribtop]

IIRC in a previous game I was forced to re-direct my Sumatra invasion because Djambi was not subject to amphib assault. I would double-check because I can't remember whether I actually tried to invade. I do recall re-routing once I moused over Djambi and saw it has no port. This led to a rather embarrassing meeting with the Emperor, to say the least... [:-]