MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[composer99]

They're cracking out the champagne in Bordeaux or wherever the French gov't has relocated to.

[Red Prince]

I know you're not going to like this, because it makes no sense in game terms, but the DOW on Greece is still going to happen, for the sake of setting up the Balkan situation I want to test. I did realize, though, that like the Portugal DOW in the last game, I only need to make the DOW with Germany. The CW will have to align Greece, and all of its TRS are committed to helping out the BEF (if needed), so they won't be able to reinforce Greece just yet. Italy, already at war with the CW can go ahead and fight the Greeks.

As I said, this doesn't make much sense in game terms, but it was part of the test, so it will be tested.

For the game situation, I have no idea what this weather actual means for Axis strategy. On the one hand, it looks like trying to declare Vichy should be the top priority. On the other hand, a short winter probably means little chance of getting enough troops over to the Soviet border for a '40 Barbarossa, so the year might be better spent trying to close the Med after all.

[Centuur]

What this weather means is clear. No attacks this impulse, since the odds shifts are preventing this. German HQ's should try to move into slightly better positions to get more units in supply next turn. Now, I don't know if it is possible to rail move Von Leeb into the action (the Reims hex would be a great place). If so, you should do so, because than he is able to get the 2-6 stack in supply. If not, the front is not going to move this impulse either (and possible this whole turn...). Yes, it costs oil, but von Bock is to far away to get the total front in supply.
Are there any Italian units in supply now? If so, try to start moving slowly towards Toulouse.
In this weather, moving (how slowly it might be) is the only thing you can do. The Axis get another impulse, so don't move any units which are OOS or are going to get disorganised in this impulse. You can affort to wait for next impulse weather roll. Now, if it's snow, you're in for a race to conquer France. Any other weather?:  

[brian brian]

A very good WiF player told me once that nothing in 1939/1940 is worth asking for a re-roll, or even risking the marker moving very much by going first, as that risk is higher in the winter as you note. The reason is that the initiative can be extremely critical in Russia in 1941. A double move by the Axis can be devastating.....likewise, a double move for the Russians can be a life-saver, particularly for railing out factories. His opinion was that the most critical turn in the game to hold the initiative and move first was Sep/Oct 1941, a turn that can decide the game during a 1941 Barbarossa, and he would hope to still have the +2 or +1 for the Axis. So he would never choose to move first until the summer of 1941. He is also the only player I have ever seen who both took Gibraltar and still launched '41 Barb on M/J '41 against good Allied players, but that was mostly due to a whole lot of good weather impulses in the fall of 1940.

[Taxman66]

Bad weather and no available land attacks means sub weather for the euro axis. Yes chances of finding the convoys is smaller but it also means no air support. Too bad you didn't even spend a little tiny bit on them. You should take combines or navals to get the subs out to try for pot shots at least. With a combine GE could move the few land units it needs to and forward deploy a good number of her short ranged fighters and stukas.

[composer99]

A nitpick: subs take 3 turns to build in both cycles so Red Prince won't get any (even assuming he bought them right away) until next turn. Although I do hope some Axis subs are being invested in.

[Red Prince]

Germany has been busy building other things, but Italy has started its SUB building program, and Germany will soon follow.

It's too bad for Germany that the CW returned its North Sea CV fleet to Hull at the end of last turn, leaving only a holding fleet of a few CL units. A combined, or even a naval action would be worthwhile in this weather to try to take down the CVs without interference from the air. In fact, I probably will take the combined, just to clear the North Sea, if I can. The CW has its BB fleet in Gibraltar, heading for the Med, so they probably won't dare sail the CV fleet if the Germans are out there waiting for them. It isn't a strike on the convoys, but it's something.

Italy actually has some good subs that could get into the Bay of Biscay, too, so it might be worth a combined action for them, too. A lot of it is going to depend on whether or not the troops heading into Greece can actually move into those hexes.

The Germans can use their 6 land moves to take Salonica (with Bulgarian units), and get its HQs better situated.

Excellent idea.

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

IMO it has more value to trade in for a TRS. Either way, it definitely needs to be done before France is Vichied. The sequence of play allows you to wait until an end of turn where the axis is in Paris.

OTOH you need to get a Tension chit in on both sides to have a hope of gearing up next turn, and the difference in production is worth more than one TRS. So if you pick options solely against one side you have the best chance of getting a Tension chit moved on each, but my gut feel is that the odds of success for gear-up next turn doing that are less than 50%.

So if it were my decision, I'd try for the two Tension chits and if it works, forget about the Bearn and gear-up next turn. If it doesn't work then intern the Bearn next turn.

Paul, doesn't Paris need to be French-controlled in order to chose the Option 4 to intern the CV Bearn?

I do agree, though, that the two tension chits are probably more important than an extra CV or TRS on map at this point for the US.

Right - forgot about that.

Edit: Looks like the gamble of not going for the Bearn paid off though, the US should be able to gear up at the end of JF40. Amazing.

[Red Prince]

Sorry I didn't get any work done yesterday. My recovery continues, but slowly. I actually went to bed for good around 3 pm (1500) local time, so you can imagine it was a not-so-good day for me.

In response to a post about the graphics in another thread, I thought I'd add a Terrain View of the Global Map, just for kicks. The little pinkish dots are Victory Cities:
-----
Edit: And, yes, I do realize I've left out most of the Pacific, but I'm working with two screens, and neither is large enough to show the whole Global Map at once -- it's a very big map.

[Red Prince]

This next map is not from MWiF, and it is completely off-topic, but it is something that never happens, so I want to share it.

My home towm was the warmest city in the continental United State yesterday, at 62 degrees F (~15 C):

[composer99]

The weather roll for the current impulse of Nov/Dec 2011 was obviously very low. [;)]

[ItBurns]

Wow, you even beat out Miami!

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: ItBurns

Wow, you even beat out Miami!

I actually almost added to the original post something like: "Eat that, Miami!" but I decided against it. [:D]

I am hoping to work on the J/F '40 turn today. Don't want you to think I'm slacking off too much. [;)]

[Red Prince]

Too be honest, I just don't have the energy to do much today either. I did run the DOW sequence for the Balkans:

Germany DOW Greece (CW); USE-4 (no chit)
Japan Closed the Burma Road; USE-1 (+1 chit, 16 [1])
Germany aligns Bulgaria; USE-7 (no chit)

And the infamous '1' popped up again for the Japanese. At least it wasn't very costly.

All 3 Axis powers have chosen a Combined Action. Germany is going to sail its fleet into the North Sea to give the Brits a scare, Italy is going to pick up some troops from the homeland to deliver to the new front in Greece, and Japan is going to . . . well, I don't really know yet.

There was talk of railing one of my HQs to the front to get my OOS supply units back in, but that can't be done because of that lousy 4-1 GARR unit near Metz. However, even with the Blizzard weather, I can get at least a 5:1 attack on those scoundrels, which should let me rail an HQ next impulse, if it's still needed.

This image, by the way, is at zoom level 6, and it is a good example of why the terrain is as it is. There is just so much information being shown already using graphics, that anything more would be too much.

[Red Prince]

I didn't realize it at the start of the turn after the weather roll, but Germany was able to put more than one useful attack into action this impulse, even with a Blizzard blowing in on the attackers. Not only is the GARR near Metz going to meet his Maker, but that 5-4 INF that was a sacrifice will indeed be sacrificed. That's the attack I didn't expect to be able to make at good odds, but it will give Germany a 2nd hex next to Paris, so with any luck (which seems to have fled the Axis), Paris might actually fall before the turn ends.

In the Chinese theatre, HQ-I Yamamoto successfully provided HQ Support to get this attack up to 5:1 odds, even without having to risk a Fractional Odds roll (which now won't make any difference. (Note that the Rain does not show up on the insert map for the Land Combat Selection & Resolution form, but it is not intended to).

I'll edit the attack results in, as usual.



And the results:

Both attacks in France were Automatic, because the Germans had the choice to Blitz, and the Japanese got a little lucky with their roll. One less, and all of them would now be disorganized.

Attack on China [87, 140]: Assault, Fractional Odds .251 (Yes), Roll = 6 = */2S
Attack on France [54, 30]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .259 (Yes), Roll = Automatic = */2B
Attack on France [56, 33]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .707 (No), Roll = Automatic = */2B

[Red Prince]

At the beginning of Impulse #5, here's the situation in France:

HQ-I Billotte is holding down Paris with 12 factors (14 vs. Armor), and there isn't much else left in the area to help out.

For the CW, HQ-I Gort is going to pull back to Ruoen and await the transport fleet to get him out of there. There's only one problem -- The Germans forced the CW holding fleet in the North Sea to abort to Plymouth. That means Gort may have to remain in France for at least two more impulses, particularly if the weather remains bad enough to prevent Naval Air Combat. The CW needs a Combined or Land Action right now to get him into position to be pulled out, and then they'll need a Naval Action to actually retrieve him. The problem is that Germany has a strong fleet in the North Sea 4 Box, and the CW can't match it without its CVP, since the majority of the heavy BBs went to Gibraltar to take on the Italians in the Med.

Some of them could get back to defend the 1 Box, and some can get to the 2 Box, which could be good enough to defend the TRS needed to take Gort back to the UK, but is it worth the risk? The next weather roll might tell, but if the CW chooses a Combined Action, it might need to move those ships now. The other option is to wait for better weather and hope Gort survives that long.

For the French, there's little to do. The GARR beneath Billotte will swap with the 6-4 INF, and I don't know if there's any other move worth making.

[composer99]

Unless there's some kind of French army in the reinforcement pool ("on the spiral" as us tabletop WiF:FE types would say) once the Germans eat up Paris there's really nothing stopping them from going all the way to the Spanish frontier, is there...

[Red Prince]

Here's the bigger picture, between Paris and the Spaniards.

The French do have the 7-6 ARM on the spiral for next turn, but that's all, and not a huge help, really. If the MTN moves from Vichy to Lyons, and the MIL gets to Toulouse, then the French could make a stand, with the help of the BEF if it stays around, but even if it is hard to crack, it isn't going to be any kind of fortress defense.

Since the weather isn't looking too good, the Germans might be better off planning for a '41 Barbarossa, or even a '42, and going after Spain, Portugal, and possibly Gibraltar. That may be even more difficult, and somewhere along the way, I'll probably need to spend the last O-chit, meaning more will have to be built before taking on the Soviets.

If the MTN does make that move this impulse, it's going to disorganize them. That's risky, depending on the weather for the next impulse. The Germans can get a few LND into the Lyons area to provide Ground Support (reduced by weather) if needed.

So, it is now close to the point of the true "Choose Your Own Adventure" theme of this AAR. Vichy? or Conquest? I'll run this Allied impulse as soon as I can and give you the next weather roll information before you "have" to make a choice, but I am open to either option. If you suggest conquest, you might also recommend a new Home Country. My choice of Morocco last time seemed to be unfavorable, so something else might be better.

Expect all of this before the end of the night (on the East Coast of the USA).

[Centuur]

I think the French ARM will arrive next turn...

Well, Red Prince was a couple of seconds earlier...

Let's face it... Paris is going to get lost in two impulses, if you're going to strengthen there defenses. This however means, you're giving the Axis the opportunity to conquer France.
However:
You're still able to rail Georges out of the Paris area into Toulouse. This means you'll lose Paris next impulse, but you're goal should now be to prevent the conquest of France. The gaining of one impulse in defending Paris isn't going to help you at all anymore. It's dangerous to the allied cause, since you really don't want a conquered France.
The MTN can also railmove to Bordeaux. Together with the French ARM arriving next turn you've got 4 corps in that region. Not bad at all, especially if you're able to rebase you're aircraft from Paris into that area too. That is going to give you a mini army right in the mountains.
Don't move the MTN to Lyon. It is simply going to get killed there, because one unit in a hex is a lot easier to kill than two, and there isn't a possibility for assistance from the UK in the Alps.

Now, if Gort can also go into that area, things would be very nice. The possibility of the turn ending and Gort than arriving in Bayonne before Axis troops are in that area is there, so use it.


One point you mentioned is that the German Fleet is in the North Sea and that there isn't a CW Fleet able to kill them... I'm terribly sorry, but that is a mistake on you're part:
You should never commit the whole CW fleet in one area. Even without a strong force to counter any German fleet actions, there is enough left to use aggressively against the Italians. Even more, if you've moved the Pacific Fleet to Port Said last turn...
Normally, the Home Fleet I use as the CW is always staying in England and is at least of the same strength as the total German fleet. I than add at least one CV and have a NAV, to get air superiority... In Storm/Blizzard, I'll go for the Surface combat and blow those precious German ships out of the water. Admiral Reader isn't going to like that at all, so he usually stays in port...
The one thing the CW can affort to lose is BB's. The number he's got (and can repair too) is quite high, compared with both the Italian and German fleet at start.

[Red Prince]

In the end, I decided to bring part of the BB fleet back. I can get 8 ships, with 46 combat factors to the North Sea 1 Box. If that doesn't make the German fleet nervous about going after the transports, nothing will. The only way they'll be able to take them out is if the weather co-operates, they send a NAV out, and get some good rolls.