Ukraine 2014

[VIF2NE]

ORIGINAL: B52

2 . Provocation by Ukrainian nationalists. They practically are not controlled.

Nationalists can't situated in Crimea, because all entrance to peninsula is closed and peninsula flooded by "Crimea's self-defenders" also and from Russia, from krasnodar region mainly.
Provoke fire between Ukrainian and Russian solders makes no sense for the nationalists, but for russian it makes sense. Russian specnaz could do a provocation with snipers. For russians profitable provoke ukrainian soldiers to open fire first and making himself a victim of ukrainian aggression than will justify their intentions for UN & other countries.

This is not so . In Crimea 2 million population. Number of Russian troops 20,000 . Actually they control very little territory. Provocation by nationalists likely. I have seen how committed provocations in combat zones . Many nationalists against Ukraine's accession to the EU. To increase its value they need unstable situation . In Ukraine, all sorts of groups with different plans. May be a simple reason for firing - criminal .

Russia is not interested in shooting in the Crimea. If she wanted blood , she would have got it very easily. Soldiers from the Ukrainian side write that after shooting everything, and Russian and Ukrainians , very afraid. Russia and Ukraine immediately did everything possible to mitigate the effects of fire. Even Ukraine's defense minister would arrive in Crimea.

If the Russian special forces would accept the provocation, it would be a strong provocation. And there may have been shooting because of a quarrel between the soldiers.

[Alex1812]

Yes, maybe

[blh42]

transmitter UVB-76 went active on the 18th just before Russia walked inter Ukraine..
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UVB-76
https://m.soundcloud.com/bronk93/2014-0 ... -4625-0khz

[beserko]

I guess the treaty of Budapest isn't worth the paper it's written on. Ukraine should have kept the nukes. Why in the world would Iran and N Korea even consider giving them up now with this as an example?

[B52]

This is not so

All information about nationalists in Crimea comes from russian media, that are manipulative and not truthful, therefore not credible. Misunderstanding more likely in this case. On examination of body proved that two shots was from below.
"Tale about snipers" who are shooting at own people - part of russian manipulations and propaganda, that aimed at demonizing new, unacceptable for kremlin, government.
In any case, it's very bad that things are going this way.

[NakedWeasel]

I tell you, I have been watching Vice News daily broadcasts on youtube, and I've never seen people so belligerent. The reporter who is Russian, and speaks perfect Russian asks the Crimeans what they think about the situation, and you'd think he'd spit on their children! They go from zero to total jerkasaurus in a nanosecond. And these people are the ones who are happy about the annexation... I'm not sure what's wrong with these folks, but vodka doesn't affect me that way. I'm just sayin.

Anyway, if these pissed-off monsters are the victors, and get stupid-violent for no apparent reason, it's easy to see how someone could get shot. Down here in Texas, that kind of lack of civility would be extremely terminal.

[VIF2NE]

I am indifferent propaganda. I lived in the Soviet Union and I'm immune. I see the same stupid propaganda on CNN, ITAR-TASS, RT, UNIAN ...

I really only care about the lack of economic assistance to Ukraine. If there's going to a real civil war, there will be bad and Russia and EU. I see that in Ukraine all totally indifferent. IMF proposal obviously impracticable. Why promised that Ukraine will join the EU? [:@]

[Alex1812]

Just looks. Crimean people after join Russia. They are so happy!

[beserko]

Everybody looks happy at the party. It's the hangover the next day that's the killer.....

[guanotwozero]

For economists, the hangover's already biting, even though the current sanctions are very limited.

While the initial financial shock will likely stabilise after week or two, the longer term prospects for Russia look bleak if the EU makes an effort to source petrochemicals from elsewhere. Right now North America is buoyant on cheap natural gas and has the capacity to increase output; it just needs the shipping and distribution infrastructure to be set up on both sides of the Atlantic, which could take ~3 years.

Furthermore, France is now considering stopping delivery of the Mistrals to Russia as long as other nations will help shoulder the financial impact. Finding another buyer would help.

So, who'd buy them? Likely too pricey for India, though I bet they'd be tempted if the price is reduced.

[beserko]

With friends like the U.S. who needs enemies?
I could not believe my eyes when I saw this today. Is anyone awake in the executive department of the U.S. government? The NSA can hover up every e-mail and phone call I make but all this drama in the Ukraine was a "surprise" I really had hopes for Obama but I now have no clue what's on his mind. Who could have thought this was a good idea. The idea down at the bottom that is, not my idea!

Now for some inflammatory comment from yours truly LOL

Maybe if some tough looking, highly trained and fully armed and MASKED "citizen defense committees" should show up in western Ukraine. What's that I see under his arm? A upgraded Stinger Air to Air! What's that over there? I think I see the latest in in an anti-tank missile battery. Israeli? Nato?, U.S?, who knows. All the serials are filed off. I am stunned. And whose planes are those at the airport. They look odd and brand new. Look at all the different missiles!
But they have no insignia, no markings at all! And the men manning them have no nationality or unit markings on their uniforms? They speak English though. But they will not answer questions! I wonder who they are. But you can get these uniforms at any cheap army/navy store but I digress ..................

NOW TO THE MEAT OF THE MATTER
____________________________________________________________________________
US to Cut Military Aid to Ukraine
______________________________________________________________________________

Vladimir Putin on Friday signed a constitutional amendment and treaty annexing formally annexing Crimea were signed Friday. Meanwhile, over the objections of its European allies, the Obama administration this week proposed a 28 percent cut to a Pentagon program that supports the modernization of Ukraine's military, as well as those of other former Soviet republics. The cuts were proposed in a budget plan posted this week. The 28 percent reduction would bring funding for the Warsaw Initiative Fund down to $24.4 million from $34 million. The cuts are a result of the Pentagon "responding to a very challenging fiscal environment, which will become all the more challenging if sequestration remains the law of the land," said a spokeswoman.

Yes, this will certainty encourage the rest of the old Warsaw Pact countries that are now in NATO. And why bring out this abomination of a "plan" now?....

Someone up there MUST have a plan! PLEASE...............

[beserko]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/nation/20 ... e/6601059/

The article that led to my indigestion today!

[jdkbph]

I'm not sure this is an "Obama" thing... not directly anyway. I think this is Congress throwing a temper tantrum... an extended, going on 2 years, holding their breath til they turn blue while rolling on the floor type temper tantrum. Because the powers that be can't get what they want, nobody gets nothing. It's a real old fashioned Mexican standoff.

Obama's failure, in a very general sense, has to do with an inability to lead and foster bipartisanship.

JD

[guanotwozero]

Ukraine is outside NATO's castle, and cannot realistically stop a full-scale Russian invasion if Putin were to order it. Pumping money into their military probably won't have a meaningful effect until well after this crisis has cooled down. Maybe a better plan is to spend the money to strengthen the castle walls (Poland, Romania, Baltics) and use the threat of scaled sanctions to deter further invasion. What's more, Ukraine is in dire economic straits mainly due to the kleptocracy of the previous president, so a more urgent use for aid money would be to fix the economy.

There seems to be a realisation that no matter how much money you pour into the militaries of former Soviet states, they will never be able to stop someone like Putin invading, so it's a pointless exercise. As NATO won't go to war over this, the main deterrent will become the economic cost.

Think of the longer term; if Ukraine sufficiently fixes its economy and society, it will likely join the EU and NATO after a decade or so - then it can be defended. This could still happen while Crimea is occupied. With the threat of further invasion nullified, the economic/sanctions effort to end the occupation can be stepped up. There's no quick fix for this, but the long view can still bring results without a shot being fired.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/03/ ... world&_r=1

The thing that kicked this whole thing off: the association agree with the EU has been signed.

BRUSSELS — The European Union and Ukraine signed a landmark political cooperation accord on Friday, committing to the same deal former president Viktor Yanukovich rejected last November, a decision that led to his overthrow.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, EU presidents Herman Van Rompuy and Jose Manuel Barroso, and the leaders of the bloc's 28 nations signed the core chapters of the Association Agreement during an EU summit in Brussels.

Soon afterwards, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed legislation completing the process of absorbing Crimea into Russia, defying Western leaders who say the Black Sea peninsula remains part of Ukraine.

The deal commits Ukraine and the EU to closer political and economic cooperation, although its more substantial parts concerning free trade will be signed only after Ukraine has held a presidential election on May 25.

Van Rompuy, the European Council president, said the agreement would bring Ukraine and its 46 million people closer to the heart of Europe and a "European way of life".

"(This) recognizes the aspirations of the people of Ukraine to live in a country governed by values, by democracy and the rule of law, where all citizens have a stake in national prosperity," he said.

Two sets of the documents were passed around the table for the EU's leaders and Yatseniuk to sign in a solemn atmosphere. Van Rompuy and Yatseniuk then shook hands and exchanged the documents to applause, witnesses said.

Yanukovich turned his back on signing the EU agreement last November in favor of closer ties with Moscow, triggering months of street protests that eventually led to his flight from the country. Soon afterwards, Russian forces occupied Crimea, a Russian-majority region in the far southeast of the country, drawing outrage and sanctions from the United States and EU.

CRISIS INTENSIFYING

Yatseniuk urged European leaders to move decisively to contain Putin with economic pressure or risk the conflict - the most bitter East-West confrontation since the Cold war - spilling elsewhere into Europe.

"The best way to contain Russia is to impose real economic leverage on them," he told reporters after the signing ceremony.

"I strongly believe ... the EU will speak in one single strong voice, defending the territorial integrity of Ukraine and protecting the EU itself because God knows what is the final destination, is it Ukraine or is it EU?"

On Thursday, EU leaders began preparations for economic sanctions if Russia expands its footprint in Ukraine, but failed to detail what measures the bloc could take.

Underscoring divisions in Europe, which have hampered its response to the crisis in Ukraine, French President Francois Hollande said late on Thursday that Kiev could count on tightening relations with the EU but not on membership.

"I have always considered that Ukraine should be associated with the EU. It couldn't aspire to be a member of the EU," he told reporters. Ukraine was part of the Moscow-dominated Soviet Union until 1991 and analysts say Putin considers Ukraine to be within Russia's historical sphere of influence.

Some European policymakers have pushed the EU to open its doors to countries in the east as an incentive to reform and resist Russian pressure on those states to shun Europe.

But many EU governments, wary of goading Russia with which they have had major commercial ties, are loath to so much as suggest Ukraine could one day join the bloc.

As well as the closer political ties, the European Commission has agreed to extend nearly 500 million euros ($689 million) worth of trade benefits to Ukraine, removing duties on a wide range of farm goods, textiles and other imports.

Once Ukraine has a new administration and signs a free-trade agreement with the European Union, it will have unfettered access to the EU's market of 500 million consumers.

That has the potential to strengthen Ukraine's shattered economy, but also runs the risk of provoking retaliatory steps from Russia, which has already imposed stricter customs checks on trade with Ukraine.

The other burden for Kiev is meeting the obligations that come with EU political association. These include instituting changes to the rule of law and justice in a country long plagued by corruption and repressive governance, and adopting business and environmental standards that will require hard work and long-term investment to meet.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

http://rt.com/news/russia-parliament-cr ... ation-293/

Crimea, Sevastopol officially join Russia as Putin signs final decree

Russia has finalized the legal process of taking Crimea under its sovereignty, as President Putin signed a law amending the Russian constitution to reflect the transition.

Earlier Russian lawmakers ratified both the amendment and an international treaty with Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, which was legally required for the incorporation.

Following the signing of the law, Putin thanked lawmakers and everyone involved in the historic change of European borders for their efforts to make it happen.

“I ask lawmakers of both chambers to work actively and do everything we can, to make the transition process not only painless, but also beneficial for all Russia and the people of Crimea,” Putin said.

The treaty and the bill were submitted for the approval of Russian lawmakers on Tuesday by Putin, following last week’s referendum in Crimea, which showed the overwhelming support of the peninsula’s residents for joining Russia.

RIA Novosti / Mikhail KlimentyevRIA Novosti / Mikhail Klimentyev

The actual transition of Crimea to existing under Russian laws and regulations may take until next year. Local rules in the new Russian region will be changed to adopt the ruble, social benefits, tax requirements and other Russian legislation.

As was promised by the Crimean authorities, the treaty includes preferences for the region’s ethnic minorities, particularly Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians. Their languages would be official in Crimea, on par with Russian.

Russia pledged to make the process as smooth as possible by offering funding and recognizing various Ukrainian documents, which were in force in Crimea before it declared its independence last week.

Moscow will retain military ranks and academic levels for Ukrainian troops who choose to serve Russia, give preference to Ukrainian officials who want to keep their positions in Crimea, and expedite the issuance of Russian citizenship to all residents of Crimea who want it. Citizenship would be given automatically to all except those who explicitly opt out of it no later than one month’s time.

The current interim authorities of Crimea will be replaced with new ones after elections, which will be held in September 2015.

Crimea’s rejoining Russia was triggered by an armed coup in Kiev, which ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanokovich from power. The new authorities took some alarming steps, including parliament passing a law revoking the regional status of the Russian language, which caused the predominantly Russian region to defy Kiev.

The public uprising in Crimea culminated in a referendum, in which an overwhelming majority of over 96 percent voted in favor of asking for reunification with Russia. Moscow agreed, citing the will of the people and the historic justice of the move as its motives.

Kiev and Western countries deemed Crimea’s secession and Russia’s acceptance of the peninsula illegal, a notion that Moscow denies. The US and the EU issued sanctions against some Russian officials and businessmen in a bid to put pressure on Russia over its stance on the Ukrainian crisis. Russian authorities mostly mocked the sanctions.

[NakedWeasel]

ORIGINAL: jdkbph

I'm not sure this is an "Obama" thing... not directly anyway. I think this is Congress throwing a temper tantrum... an extended, going on 2 years, holding their breath til they turn blue while rolling on the floor type temper tantrum. Because the powers that be can't get what they want, nobody gets nothing. It's a real old fashioned Mexican standoff.

Obama's failure, in a very general sense, has to do with an inability to lead and foster bipartisanship.

JD

Well stated. 100% agreement.

[mikmykWS]

If I was any nation in Europe I'd be thinking real hard about my defense expenditures and their ability to defend themselves. Putin-Russia just gave the rational reason why they should.

The Ukrainian people should be outraged that their government and their armed forces put them in a position of where something like this could happen. The only solid they got so far is a conventional war hasn't started leveling their country.

Nobody seems to have asked this yet but why was seemingly every Western intelligence agency caught flat footed on this?

Mike

[guanotwozero]

Since independence Ukraine's had a sequence of bad governments who were authoritarian and corrupt, so that the money ended up with powerful individuals rather than state institutions. The military was no exception, allowed to degrade and become quite ineffective. While the Orange Revolution brought new hope, certain of the leaders themselves (allegedly) became corrupt, and the situation did not significantly improve.

As Ukraine's western neighbours joined the EU and benefitted from new prosperity and accountability, many Ukrainians hankered after that too. However, this aspiration was seen as a rival to being in Russia's sphere of influence. Russia favoured the corrupt autocrats and was prepared to wield economic power (e.g. gas supply) to sway local politics. It suited them to have a weak Ukraine as a client state serving as a buffer with the EU & NATO. That's what lead to Yanukovych going back on the expected deal with the EU, and sparked the recent revolution which ousted him.

So the Ukrainian people are well aware of the years of corruption and mismanagement which led to their armed forces becoming ineffective.

I agree that European nations are likely to rethink their defence spending as this threat has escalated, and economies are starting to recover from the recession. The idea that the Georgia war was a one-off has now been thoroughly discredited, and lessons must be learned. Certain western intelligence agencies have been obsessed with spying on ordinary citizens, mostly concerned about home-grown Islamists hatching plots. This means they've taken their eye off the ball, so failed to predict the Georgia war, Arab Spring, Syrian civil war, Ukrainian revolution and invasion of Crimea, indeed most of the big events of the past decade. To me it started going wrong over the Iraq/WMD debacle, where political interference, misdirection and aftermath deeply affected the professionalism of the agencies. While we're not going back to the Cold War, they're going to have to adapt to the new realities which are now glaringly obvious.

[jtoatoktoe]

Live video of a base where tensions are said to be high. No sound though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoLi25S-Kv8

*Edit* literally as I hit sent someone climbed the pole and disabled the camera. Bummerooskie.

*Edit 2* Video back up but its not live, its old footage from yesterday.