The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[GreyJoy]

.

[JeffroK]

Terapo looks empty????
 
Would a landing here threaten the rear of his position??
 
Even just a token force might get him jumpy?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Terapo looks empty????

Would a landing here threaten the rear of his position??

Even just a token force might get him jumpy?

It's occupied by 9,000 men....simply i haven't reconned it in the last 4/5 days...

We'll try a flanking movement all the same, passing south of the contested hex...

[Canoerebel]

Happy New Year, GreyJoy!  Congratulations on soldiering through the really hard years and reaching the point where you can finally really make things unpleasant for Japan.
 
Perhaps I may be so bold as to speak on behalf of the AE community.  Your perserverence, good cheer, and sportsmanship are admirable.  Thank you for becoming a valued member of the community.

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Happy New Year, GreyJoy!  Congratulations on soldiering through the really hard years and reaching the point where you can finally really make things unpleasant for Japan.

Perhaps I may be so bold as to speak on behalf of the AE community.  Your perserverence, good cheer, and sportsmanship are admirable.  Thank you for becoming a valued member of the community.

+1

[GreyJoy]

You make me feel embarassed guys....thanks...[:)]

It's my pleasure, and my priviledge, to be here with you


...was a bad day in the air the last one... 40 pilots lost...most of them were aces...[:(]

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

... It's confirmed. Rader has abbandoned Multan, moving his 430k troops to Lahore...

... Why Rader has done that remains a mistery to me...he has moved to Lahore and placed several fighters concentrations at Bombay, Dehli and south of it...a planned retreat? But why? he could easily leave there a blocking force of 300k men and use the 150k he had to spare for other theatres...why lose northern India?! ...

He is taking prophylactic action against suffering "heavy" casualties from a 4E ground attack campaign.

1. Multan is a clear hex. Rader is going to be thinning out/abandoning any position which is a clear hex and for which adequate CAP/AA can not be provided.

2. Multan is not close to many other airfields. This limits the amount of CAP support available.

3. Rader presumably considers the main locus for his fighters should be over the current "hot" theatre, ie the Solomons/Papua New Guinea. His assessment is that he lacks sufficient fighter units to spare for a meaningful defence in India against a 4E campaign. The time delay in moving fighter units between theatres is presumably a factor in his assessment.

4. If he must move back he wants to do it whilst he can do it without the handicap of doing so under major air interdiction.

Alfred

[Cribtop]

Sound analysis Alfred, but do you see any signs that Rader is preparing to abandon India or do you think he can hold a line near Dehli or elsewhere?

[JeffroK]

So why is lahore better than Multan, he'll just decide Lahore is an outpost so has to move back again.
 
Of course it might be a brilliant move, but we dont know what he is thinking[:@]

[Canoerebel]

I'm tellin' ya, boys, once the retreat begins in India, there's no stoppin' 'til ya get to Calcutta.

Rader has a case of the yips. Meaning: in his own mind Multan was no longer defensible. Once he starts retreating from his MLR, the yips will continue to dog him, nippin' at his heals until he is safely behind a new line anchored at Calcutta and stretching north to Ledo. Even that line is not completely secure, so from there he will retire fairly soon into Upper Burma.

The question is this: Will he be so concerned about not having units cut off and destroyed that he pulls most of his strength out of places like Socotra, Attu and Diego Garcia, or does he leave them fairly strongly garrisoned (say a regiment or mixed brigade plus some punch) to serve as strong speed bumps. In my game with Q-Ball, he chose the former route. I don't think that was the way to go, but I'm not sure rader will agree with me.

GJ, you might want to do some probing of those islands. Also, start thinking of where you want to be and where you want to go once India is yours. I think the entire subcontinent will be yours in six to eight weeks, excepting Calcutta.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

... It's confirmed. Rader has abbandoned Multan, moving his 430k troops to Lahore...

... Why Rader has done that remains a mistery to me...he has moved to Lahore and placed several fighters concentrations at Bombay, Dehli and south of it...a planned retreat? But why? he could easily leave there a blocking force of 300k men and use the 150k he had to spare for other theatres...why lose northern India?! ...

He is taking prophylactic action against suffering "heavy" casualties from a 4E ground attack campaign.

1. Multan is a clear hex. Rader is going to be thinning out/abandoning any position which is a clear hex and for which adequate CAP/AA can not be provided.

2. Multan is not close to many other airfields. This limits the amount of CAP support available.

3. Rader presumably considers the main locus for his fighters should be over the current "hot" theatre, ie the Solomons/Papua New Guinea. His assessment is that he lacks sufficient fighter units to spare for a meaningful defence in India against a 4E campaign. The time delay in moving fighter units between theatres is presumably a factor in his assessment.

4. If he must move back he wants to do it whilst he can do it without the handicap of doing so under major air interdiction.

Alfred

Hi Alfred!

Yes, it sounds that your analysis is the one who better sees Rader's pov.
However, if that is the case, i truly think Rader is mistaken.
At Multan he had, like at Jodpur, almost every single heavy AA battery in japanese OOB. I had tried for many months, during the "Battle of India" in summer 42, to smash Jodpur AF (when from Jodpur, every day, 3/400 fighters swept Karachi into oblivion)...and i was using a bomber army composed of 100 B-17Es...result? Inacceptable losses (i lost all my B-17Es during that period) due to his CAP and, above all, his flak.
Even jap flak, when massed in those numbers, can be deadly for a 4E formation. and then there's the CAP...georges, Tojo c, Franks...those fighters are able to shoot down my 4Es in droves... and Rader knows i cannot sustain heavy losses for a long time...so i wasn't going to bomb Multan with my 4Es...not at this point however...not untill i could count of a decent reserve of B-29s in my pool...
Multan was a damned good defensive position. And with a good CAP (RAder had 270 top line fighters there) i think nothing could have moved japanese army from there... my flanking manouvre was a feint...i knew i could not really outflank him...roads are terrible there and there are river crossings everywhere...plus i would have moved under a constant threat from his LBA in a territory where my air presence was non-existant...

CRsutton is right imho...Rader could have easily keep me bound in that bottleneck for 6 more months without any problem....

Now he moved everything to Lahore. Lahore is a light urban hex...which is a problem but it can also become an advantage... if i manage to get there with say 3000 AVs...i could pinn him down up there, while the rest of my army can close the exit door....

I don't think Rader will fall into this childish strategy but... i will advance towards Lahore...with 2 Army corps... north and south of the main river... he will be forced to decide to engage me before Lahore in an open terrain, to wait for me there, or to move out...
At the same time Multan will be built to a level 9 AF (already lvl 6) and a consistent air force will be moved there (200 fighters and 200 4Es) in order to support my advance.

Let's see.... anyway i do believe Rader's decision isn't the wisest one...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
I think the entire subcontinent will be yours in six to eight weeks, excepting Calcutta.

No, i don't think so CR. Not so easy at least. If rader wanted to pull out immediately he could have moved everything back to Dehli line, and not to Lahore... i think he'll try a forward delaying defence... he knows i cannot advance freely with my tanks untill i have a decent air supremacy...and he still holds it above his lines...

Anyway, i'll try to send some Long Range recon to Scoodra...let's see what he has there

[GreyJoy]

In NG he's forcing me to a statlemate...he keeps on pouring new infantry units to the front line...now his 16th and 17th armies (facing my I and II AUS corps north of Buna) are composed of 35k men, while the 4th division (8,500 men strong) is occupying the mountain hex west of it.
3 NZ Bdes are trying to flank these positions marching in the swamps north of PM towards Tarapo, from where it seems that his units are marching back to Lae...
If i cannot break this line i have to find another route to get to Lae.
I'm thinking about sending an US division to Terapo and, at the same time, diverting some of the forces prepping for Torokina to an amphib operation at Lae or Salamua...using Buna (AF lvl 6) and PM to cover my landings... gotta think about it...i hate the idea of changing the preparation for some of my LCus...

[GreyJoy]

Jan 2, 3 1944
 
While some of my ships are getting their upgrades, most of the RAAF squadrons have been upgraded with a bigger number of planes...that means more pilots and, i have to say, i'm scraping the bottom of the barrell for what concerned highly trained AUS pilots...especially fighters...3 squadrons exclusivly committed to training pourposes are not enough :-/
 
My CVs are rotating in the front line, with some of them getting their 10/43 upgrades. I'm trying to keep my naval forces updated as much as i can.
 
Munda is finally operative after the BB bombings of last week. We're now sending there a strong base force and some more engineers. Think that in one week i'll be able to have both Munda and Rekata operative, both AF lvl 6 and with 250 Aviation support each. That means i will be able to base 500 fighters in the front line to support the invasion of Chiuseul Bay and Tresury Island scheldued for mid Jan 44.
 
We reconned Sosarbaja today for the first time... 15,000 men...nothing special...obviously southern DEI are more garrisoned than SRA...

[GreyJoy]

For what concerns the operation in Northern Oz, we're busy moving stuffs to Perth, Alice Springs and Cairns. Rader has noticed all these movements and is slowly moving more assets to southern DEI. Bombers are arriving in the bases around Ambon, while more troops are flowing to Timor.
 
The 1st, 2nd and 3rd Marine Divisions are prepping, along with 1 HQ, 2 Combat Eng Rgts, Amphib Bde, 3 Artillery units and 2 USMC Tank BNs. This marine army is really the cream of allied amphibious forces.
 
Another CV arrived (the Intrepid). Now a strong new force composed of 1 CV, 2 CVLs and 4 CVEs is assembling at PH...will soon be moved to SOPAC

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

... It's confirmed. Rader has abbandoned Multan, moving his 430k troops to Lahore...

... Why Rader has done that remains a mistery to me...he has moved to Lahore and placed several fighters concentrations at Bombay, Dehli and south of it...a planned retreat? But why? he could easily leave there a blocking force of 300k men and use the 150k he had to spare for other theatres...why lose northern India?! ...

He is taking prophylactic action against suffering "heavy" casualties from a 4E ground attack campaign.

1. Multan is a clear hex. Rader is going to be thinning out/abandoning any position which is a clear hex and for which adequate CAP/AA can not be provided.

2. Multan is not close to many other airfields. This limits the amount of CAP support available.

3. Rader presumably considers the main locus for his fighters should be over the current "hot" theatre, ie the Solomons/Papua New Guinea. His assessment is that he lacks sufficient fighter units to spare for a meaningful defence in India against a 4E campaign. The time delay in moving fighter units between theatres is presumably a factor in his assessment.

4. If he must move back he wants to do it whilst he can do it without the handicap of doing so under major air interdiction.

Alfred

Hi Alfred!

Yes, it sounds that your analysis is the one who better sees Rader's pov.
However, if that is the case, i truly think Rader is mistaken.
At Multan he had, like at Jodpur, almost every single heavy AA battery in japanese OOB. I had tried for many months, during the "Battle of India" in summer 42, to smash Jodpur AF (when from Jodpur, every day, 3/400 fighters swept Karachi into oblivion)...and i was using a bomber army composed of 100 B-17Es...result? Inacceptable losses (i lost all my B-17Es during that period) due to his CAP and, above all, his flak.
Even jap flak, when massed in those numbers, can be deadly for a 4E formation. and then there's the CAP...georges, Tojo c, Franks...those fighters are able to shoot down my 4Es in droves... and Rader knows i cannot sustain heavy losses for a long time...so i wasn't going to bomb Multan with my 4Es...not at this point however...not untill i could count of a decent reserve of B-29s in my pool...
Multan was a damned good defensive position. And with a good CAP (RAder had 270 top line fighters there) i think nothing could have moved japanese army from there... my flanking manouvre was a feint...i knew i could not really outflank him...roads are terrible there and there are river crossings everywhere...plus i would have moved under a constant threat from his LBA in a territory where my air presence was non-existant...

CRsutton is right imho...Rader could have easily keep me bound in that bottleneck for 6 more months without any problem....

Now he moved everything to Lahore. Lahore is a light urban hex...which is a problem but it can also become an advantage... if i manage to get there with say 3000 AVs...i could pinn him down up there, while the rest of my army can close the exit door....

I don't think Rader will fall into this childish strategy but... i will advance towards Lahore...with 2 Army corps... north and south of the main river... he will be forced to decide to engage me before Lahore in an open terrain, to wait for me there, or to move out...
At the same time Multan will be built to a level 9 AF (already lvl 6) and a consistent air force will be moved there (200 fighters and 200 4Es) in order to support my advance.

Let's see.... anyway i do believe Rader's decision isn't the wisest one...

Rader is a tactician, not a strategist. I have never imbued him with the extraordinary powers of play which the denizens of this AAR have accorded him. The move back from Multan to only Lahore demonstrates how Rader approaches problems; to wit tactically rather than strategically. As such the move is a mistake for it does not address his longer term problems.

it is early days to be definitive about Rader's intentions but on the balance of probability, I think he will stay awahile at Lahore to see how the Allies react. These are my reasons for this tentative view.

1. If Japan retreats abandons Lahore then he must also abandon Rawalpindi. Abandoning Rawalpindi reduces Japanese monthly production of fighters by 75.

2. The loss in production of 75 fighters monthly, in view of Rader's usual daily loss rates, might not seem much but:

(a) why suffer any unforced diminuation in production
(b) this is quite safe production for the lost heavy Industry is fed by raw materials which are never subject to Allied interdiction and Japan never expends any fuel or risks any assets to feed this Heavy Industry

3. Anchoring his defence on Lahore, Rader can take advantage of the airfield complex of the tri base area; Lahore, Amritsar and Sialkot. This allows for a dispersal of Japanese aircraft which has the benefit of making them less vulnerable to being destroyed on the ground as they would be at Multan. But the subtle tactical benefit is that some of the Japanese fighters, if not based at Multan, can only participate in CAP over Multan by using drop tanks. That increases Japanese supply consumption and wear and tear on both airframe and pilot. Instead by anchoring on Lahore the nearby tri base area airfields he eliminates any need to use drop tanks and can also rely less on LRCAP and more on CAP leakage.

4. If not pressed by the Allies, Rader would be quite happy to stay at Lahore because the key bases (such as Lahore, Rawalpindi, Sialkot etc) are not on hex terrain and therefore he will feel more comfortable in sending excess AA and fighter units to fight in the hot theatre (Papua New Guinea) where the terrain provides him cover from Allied aerial bombing. Admittedly Amritsar is clear terrain but Rader will not consider that GreyJoy will bypass Lahore and go straight for amristar as that would give Rader tactical opportunities to cut off the Allied spearhead.

5. The move to Lahore is also an admission that the fighting in the Solomons and Papua is stretching thin Japanese assets. He is consolidating to free up "surplus" assets for use in theatres which he believes offer better tactical defensive opportunities.

6. Lahore probably has higher fortification levels than Multan, which will assist him in economising on his fighter/AA assets.

7. A vigorous Allied pursuit and aerial bombing in India using 4E might persuade Rader to fall back on the next line, the Delhi line. That however would probably result only from GreyJoy lessening his aerial pressure in the Solomons/Papua. As India has been a sleepy backwater for so long, Rader probably feels that at most the Allies will advance in India without massive 4E support. That being so he probably rates his chances of maintaining air equilibrium over the tri base area as being quite high.

For a long time GreyJoy has been reluctant to use his 4E in India due to Japanese AA. There is no guarantee that those former high AA concentrations have remained in India.

Alfred

[Canoerebel]

This is the time to recognize your opponent's mindset; to use a bit of intuitive psychology here. Rader is ready to stampede. All it will take is the slightest noise to spook him out of India. You got to realize that and you've got to make the noise.

The slightest threat of outflanking his units will push him out of Lahore. Then you'll know he's going all the way back to Calcutta.

Don't stop now to organize everything beautifully. This isn't the time to await arrival of the orchestra and full choir before you begin the concert. No! This is the time for the one choir member to pick up the symbols, run straight at the cattle, and begin banging and clanging away.

The next time you see those cattle, they'll be chewing their cud in Calcutta.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: Alfred




He is taking prophylactic action against suffering "heavy" casualties from a 4E ground attack campaign.

1. Multan is a clear hex. Rader is going to be thinning out/abandoning any position which is a clear hex and for which adequate CAP/AA can not be provided.

2. Multan is not close to many other airfields. This limits the amount of CAP support available.

3. Rader presumably considers the main locus for his fighters should be over the current "hot" theatre, ie the Solomons/Papua New Guinea. His assessment is that he lacks sufficient fighter units to spare for a meaningful defence in India against a 4E campaign. The time delay in moving fighter units between theatres is presumably a factor in his assessment.

4. If he must move back he wants to do it whilst he can do it without the handicap of doing so under major air interdiction.

Alfred

Hi Alfred!

Yes, it sounds that your analysis is the one who better sees Rader's pov.
However, if that is the case, i truly think Rader is mistaken.
At Multan he had, like at Jodpur, almost every single heavy AA battery in japanese OOB. I had tried for many months, during the "Battle of India" in summer 42, to smash Jodpur AF (when from Jodpur, every day, 3/400 fighters swept Karachi into oblivion)...and i was using a bomber army composed of 100 B-17Es...result? Inacceptable losses (i lost all my B-17Es during that period) due to his CAP and, above all, his flak.
Even jap flak, when massed in those numbers, can be deadly for a 4E formation. and then there's the CAP...georges, Tojo c, Franks...those fighters are able to shoot down my 4Es in droves... and Rader knows i cannot sustain heavy losses for a long time...so i wasn't going to bomb Multan with my 4Es...not at this point however...not untill i could count of a decent reserve of B-29s in my pool...
Multan was a damned good defensive position. And with a good CAP (RAder had 270 top line fighters there) i think nothing could have moved japanese army from there... my flanking manouvre was a feint...i knew i could not really outflank him...roads are terrible there and there are river crossings everywhere...plus i would have moved under a constant threat from his LBA in a territory where my air presence was non-existant...

CRsutton is right imho...Rader could have easily keep me bound in that bottleneck for 6 more months without any problem....

Now he moved everything to Lahore. Lahore is a light urban hex...which is a problem but it can also become an advantage... if i manage to get there with say 3000 AVs...i could pinn him down up there, while the rest of my army can close the exit door....

I don't think Rader will fall into this childish strategy but... i will advance towards Lahore...with 2 Army corps... north and south of the main river... he will be forced to decide to engage me before Lahore in an open terrain, to wait for me there, or to move out...
At the same time Multan will be built to a level 9 AF (already lvl 6) and a consistent air force will be moved there (200 fighters and 200 4Es) in order to support my advance.

Let's see.... anyway i do believe Rader's decision isn't the wisest one...

Rader is a tactician, not a strategist. I have never imbued him with the extraordinary powers of play which the denizens of this AAR have accorded him. The move back from Multan to only Lahore demonstrates how Rader approaches problems; to wit tactically rather than strategically. As such the move is a mistake for it does not address his longer term problems.

it is early days to be definitive about Rader's intentions but on the balance of probability, I think he will stay awahile at Lahore to see how the Allies react. These are my reasons for this tentative view.

1. If Japan retreats abandons Lahore then he must also abandon Rawalpindi. Abandoning Rawalpindi reduces Japanese monthly production of fighters by 75.

2. The loss in production of 75 fighters monthly, in view of Rader's usual daily loss rates, might not seem much but:

(a) why suffer any unforced diminuation in production
(b) this is quite safe production for the lost heavy Industry is fed by raw materials which are never subject to Allied interdiction and Japan never expends any fuel or risks any assets to feed this Heavy Industry

3. Anchoring his defence on Lahore, Rader can take advantage of the airfield complex of the tri base area; Lahore, Amritsar and Sialkot. This allows for a dispersal of Japanese aircraft which has the benefit of making them less vulnerable to being destroyed on the ground as they would be at Multan. But the subtle tactical benefit is that some of the Japanese fighters, if not based at Multan, can only participate in CAP over Multan by using drop tanks. That increases Japanese supply consumption and wear and tear on both airframe and pilot. Instead by anchoring on Lahore the nearby tri base area airfields he eliminates any need to use drop tanks and can also rely less on LRCAP and more on CAP leakage.

4. If not pressed by the Allies, Rader would be quite happy to stay at Lahore because the key bases (such as Lahore, Rawalpindi, Sialkot etc) are not on hex terrain and therefore he will feel more comfortable in sending excess AA and fighter units to fight in the hot theatre (Papua New Guinea) where the terrain provides him cover from Allied aerial bombing. Admittedly Amritsar is clear terrain but Rader will not consider that GreyJoy will bypass Lahore and go straight for amristar as that would give Rader tactical opportunities to cut off the Allied spearhead.

5. The move to Lahore is also an admission that the fighting in the Solomons and Papua is stretching thin Japanese assets. He is consolidating to free up "surplus" assets for use in theatres which he believes offer better tactical defensive opportunities.

6. Lahore probably has higher fortification levels than Multan, which will assist him in economising on his fighter/AA assets.

7. A vigorous Allied pursuit and aerial bombing in India using 4E might persuade Rader to fall back on the next line, the Delhi line. That however would probably result only from GreyJoy lessening his aerial pressure in the Solomons/Papua. As India has been a sleepy backwater for so long, Rader probably feels that at most the Allies will advance in India without massive 4E support. That being so he probably rates his chances of maintaining air equilibrium over the tri base area as being quite high.

For a long time GreyJoy has been reluctant to use his 4E in India due to Japanese AA. There is no guarantee that those former high AA concentrations have remained in India.

Alfred

Hi Alfred,

as always your analysis is deep and logic. Thanks a lot!

I'm pretty sure (i'd say 99%) that Rader in the last year hasn't moved out his AAs from India. On the contrary intelligence reports told me during this last year that at least 8 more AA units have been transfered from HI to India.
At Jodpur he has 71 units. Only 3 of these units are fighting LCUs (2 Guards Regiments and a Mixed Bde), the rest being Air HQs, Base forces and, above all, AA units.
At Multan we have identified (using a cross combination of air recon, few ground bombing missions and sigin reports) 12 AA units...i'm pretty sure btw that many more were present.

So his AA is still massive and strong and, when massed in a single hex, can provide a perfect cover for his LCUs against my 4Es.... thus my concerns about his decision to abbandon Multan.

Rader would also be mistaken if he thought i had weakened my presence in India because of the sleepy attitude of this theatre during the last year. I kept 500 top line fighters in India, along with 180 4Es and 240 2Es, plus torpedo bombers, dive bombers and recon units. This force should be enough to force Rader to keep a consistent air force to balance my strenght and not to collapse under the threat of my 4Es.

I will press on now. Multan is also a bottleneck that can provide a great defence at my back during my next advance towards Lahore.
The only thing that limits me is the fact that i will be forced to advance always with our AA units...so i won't be able to count on a superior mobility....but the presence of my fighters at Multan will surely provide a better LRCAP cover.

Now, to answer to CR, yes, i will be moving asap. While Multan will be built to level 9 AF my army will march. We'll move in 2 army corps, following the two main roads (north and south of the river that connects Multan to Lahore.
The idea is to threaten to occupy the river crossings that from Lahore lead towards Dehly. So while a a sub army corp 3500 AV strong will try to enter in Lahore hex, two more corps will occupy the river crossings south of Lahore...he will be forced to come out and fight or to abbandon Lahore and everything north of it.
At the same time we'll keep 2000 AVs at Multan as a strategical reserve. 500 AVs will be kept in strat mode in order to be ready to exploit the work of the 300 AVs paras that i'm keeping at Multan... if the situation arises i wanna be ready.

As soon as the AF is built, my 4Es will be moved to Multan and will start to bomb his ground units that are occupying alone choke points or cross roads...

Will be fun....

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is the time to recognize your opponent's mindset; to use a bit of intuitive psychology here. Rader is ready to stampede. All it will take is the slightest noise to spook him out of India. You got to realize that and you've got to make the noise.

The slightest threat of outflanking his units will push him out of Lahore. Then you'll know he's going all the way back to Calcutta.

Don't stop now to organize everything beautifully. This isn't the time to await arrival of the orchestra and full choir before you begin the concert. No! This is the time for the one choir member to pick up the symbols, run straight at the cattle, and begin banging and clanging away.

The next time you see those cattle, they'll be chewing their cud in Calcutta.

I've got to disagree and go with Alfred. He's trading pretty worthless territory (Multan) for time. His whole war strategy rests on India's economy propping up his aircraft manufacturing. If GJ wants India he'll have to take it. Rader is not going to leave.

Every week which passes is golden for rader at this point. He has a system of fall-back lines in mind, and he's systematically executing them. If GJ wants decisive naval action he's going to have to hang it out there. Rader won't come to him. He's hunkering down, waiting for 1946.

[princep01]

The muted sound of heels clicking on the pavement reached through the thick, evening fog. Its timeless property of dampening all sounds was doing its magic again as they waited. In the distance, a man coughed rawly, but the world was otherwise wrapped in gray silence. A man emerged into their sight, trailing a slight swirl of fog. He advanced down the street toward the alley from where they watched. On his shoulders were the rank badge of a full Colonel in her Majesty's Army. With a nod to the other watchers, he confirmed the identity of the man as none other than Colonel Lord Alfred.

The fog crept along the pavement on silent and graceful catspaws as he walked toward the alley where the watchers waited. They slowly and silently faded deeper into the pitch black alley. The sound of steps approached at a steady gait. Then the Colonel stood highlighted by the fog at the mouth of the alley; an alley that would cut ten minutes off his walk to the War Ministry Building. They watched in total silence shroud by fog and darkness. Colonel Lord Alfred stood in momentary indecision, then turn and started down the short cut. Tonight he needed to be on time as the strategy decisions would reach a culmination point and he could not miss that. he looked up at the sky to see if any stars peeked through the blanket of fog. None did. He walked deeper into darkness, seeing only the end of the alley ahead and the building he sought beyond.

With the swiftness of jungle cats they stuck. He was aware only briefly that there were more than one, but that was all. Colonel Lord Alfred's feet were swept out from under him and a very hard object smacked against his skull. He landed with a thud, stunned and more than a bit ruffled. After a moment awareness returned. A set of rather shiny brass knuckles rested on his cheek. Attached was a large hand. But, the darkness kept the rest man hidden.

A disembodied voice finally whispered. "Colonel Lord Alfred, how nice to make your acquainance". Let me introduce myself. I am one of a merry group of writers called, The Denizens of This AAR. I must tell you that some of us take a bit of umbrage at your rather cavalier, and some might say arrogant, statements and implications that we are not as entitled to express our opinions as certain Colonel's in her Majesty's service. I'm also here to imform you that should that certain Colonel continue to make such demeaning comments, why a certain group might actually do something sinister in response....if you get my drift, Colonel".

With that, the hand and metallic knuckles disappeared and the sound of many footpads slowly dissappeared down the alleyway in the direction the Colonel had entered. The Colonel rose shakily to his feet, brushing at the refuse that clung to his immaculate uniform. He gingerly fingered the small knot on his head. "Ruffains", he muttered, and made his way as quickly as he could into the light at the opposite end of the alley.

Incident reported to: Sgt princepBolton, MP