Shattered Vow

[Q-Ball]

At Cox's Bazaar, it could be just a move to push out the perimeter. The Allies's best way to attack Burma appears to be through Akyab, rather than straight over the mountains. Occupying Cox's Bazaar might be logical then to establish a base to fortify to block a move on Akyab.

[veji1]

Didn't many players have a HR in WITP against Strat Bombing in China ? I mean it is way too easy... i am JFB but that + the Arty Death Star (which will destroy the japs later on but China will be gone by then) makes China unplayable. I guess except if patch 2 solves the Arty issue a House rule should be :
- No strat bomb in China
- one arty unit per 600 AV (0-600 = 1, 601-1200 = 2, etc...)

[Canoerebel]

7/31/42 to 8/5/42
 
Cox's Bazaar:  This is turning into a meeting engagement.  The Japanese haven't been able to take the base.  A 1:2 deliberate attack on the 2nd failed to touch three forts and the Japanese suffered 917 to 340 casualties.  The Japanese AV is up to 700, but a solid though small (AV 65) British armored unit just arrived, bringing the Allied AV to about 250.  To Allied infantry units of a combined 200+ AV should arrive in two more days.  Given the forts, I should still have the base then.  Once those reinforcements are on hand this will turn into a serious war of attrition.  Unfortunately, the Japanese rule the skies at the moment though aircraft have been notably absent the past few days.

China:  The defenses at Nanyang cracked - several units were below 50 AV - so I have begun evacuating toward Sian.  I should have about 3,500 AV in that hex behind four forts.  Many of the Chinese units there have experience in the 50s, now, so perhaps this base can hold.  It has to hold, really.  Sian is the back door to Chungking.  (Note - Miller is really pouring it on in China what with the artillery, strategic bombing, and conventional bombing; I'm not sure what satisfaction he'll derive from whipping up on the ridiculously weak Chinese, taking most or all of the country, and in doing so throwing the game into the realm of the ridiculous and no fun any more.) 

NoPac:  Still no sign of Japanese "attention" to the Kuriles.  The Allied forces are now assembled at Seattle and I have the ships to transport them.  I'm just waiting for the right moment, assuming there will even be one.

CenPac:  Quiet.

SoPac:  Quiet.

SWPac:  Quiet.  Coen just became a level four airfield.  Timor remains peaceful.

Subs:  Yikes, the carnage continues.  I-32 gets an AK near Bombay; I-171 gets a TK near Trivandrum; I-15 gets a TK near Bombay; I-16 misses an APD near Luganville; I-22 gets a TK near Colombo; I-15 gets an AK near Bombay; I-16 is pummeled by ASW near Noumea.  Note:  I have ASW working all over these areas, but not effectively.

[Chickenboy]

Canoerebel,

If I were a bettin' man (and I am), I'd venture that Miller will be forcing you back to Chungking in China. By Chungking, I mean that he will likely begin sweeping up Western China and forcing EVERYONE EVERYWHERE back to Chungking. Thereafter, I venture that he will use only sufficient forces to bottle up China and redeploy newly available artillery and LCUs outside of China into the Central Pacific of SRA. It seems as if he's 'proving a point'. Now, what point that is exactly, I don't know.

Would you still consider the game to no longer be entertaining if he bottled up everything you had in China to a few hexes around Chungking and left your forces to rot? I'd bet that's where this is going.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, that's what he's doing.  He'll face a major roadblock at Sian, and he's having a tough time in the Changsha/Liuchow line region, but I think he may be sending some troops cross-country to try to sever my supply lines (such as they are).  Ultimately, I'd say it's a going to be very tough for the Chinese to hold the current MLR; and if that breaks it's back to Chungking.
 
No, I won't be enjoying the game if it turns into a fiasco in which China (except Chungking) has fallen and Miller loads up all his islands with freed-up troops that belong in China.  The game is already pretty close to the fiasco point.

[Canoerebel]

8/6/42 to 8/11/42
 
Nanyang:  The Japanese took this city on the 6th by deliberate attack that cost them 844 to 16,056.  [8|]
 
Sian:  I made a mistake in the defense of Sian, though I think it was understandable. The Japs will be advancing north (true compass west) on Sian from Nanyang.  Meanwhile, a Japanese force that moved across country from the east (true compass north) was nearing Sian and was clearly going to establish itself on the road between Sian and Nanyang, barring the way to Sian for my Nanyang troops.  Now, these Japanese had marched through woods without roads and then had crossed a river, so they should be out of supplies and in bad shape.  To meet and defeat them, I sent three big units out of Sian to guard the road while the retreating Chinese passed through.  The Japanese army - which includes two divisions - got 4:1 odds on a deliberate attack, inflicting 10,064 to 1,656.  [8|]  So, now three big, strong units are wrecked, which will make it more difficult to defend Sian.
 
China Syndrome:  As alluded to yesterday, I am not particularly interested in playing a screwed up game in which China falls or becomes a tiny, bottled-up, toothless pocket of troops.  I also don't see how my opponent can take any satisfaction in taking advantage of screwed up game mechanics to wreak havoc in China.  If I can't hold the Japanese back and retain some measure of a real presence in China, I shall stop the game.
 
India:  The Allies have stopped the Japanese at Cox's Bazaar.  Reinforcements arrived bringing the Allied AV to 500+.  The Japanese have about 700.  Several hundred more Allied AV are on the way and Chittagong has about 1,000 AV itself.  Unless I'm misreading things, the Japanese aren't going anywhere in this region.
 
DEI:  The Japanese have started patrol reconnaisance of Lautem.  I think an invasion is imminent and, if so, that will put a halt to any ideas I had about reinforcing Lautem by autumn.  (Hey, that sounds like a great movie title:  Lautem by Autumn, a haunting sequel to The Road to Mandalay).
 
SoPac:  The Allies continue to shuffle troops around, especially to Luganville and Vana Lueva.  I have a SeaBee unit on the way to Noumea that will stealthily be moved to Ndeni.
 
CenPac:  Peaceful waters.
 
NoPac: Continued status quo, including SigInt reports that just 5k to 6k Japanese troops occupy Paramushiro.

[Swenslim]

Chinise units were weak in life...so they are in game...dont whine. As JFB I can start whining right now that some green suckers on P-38 with 45 expirience have 4-1 kill ratio against my expirienced Zero and Oscar pilots.

[Canoerebel]

Durn, I can't even complain in my own AAR.
 
Miller has moved additional artillery units to Changsha - a total of eight are there now - well within his self-declared HR limiting the Japanese to one artillery per division.  The result?  The Chinese, behind eight forts, took 1,688 and 1,506 casualties over two days.
 
As far as I am concerned this is the straw that breaks the camel's back:
 
1.  Chinese troops take disproportionate losses in land and artillery battles.
2.  The only hope for the Chinese is to get troops behind fortifications.
3.  Fortifications don't soften the nuclear effects of Artillery Death Stars.
4.  Chinese losses in battle are exhorbitant.
5.  It takes supplies to replace losses.
6.  China is low on supplies, making it hard to draw replacements.
7.  Japanese strategic bombing can totally destroy Chinese industry, further reducing supplies therefore making replacement draws even more difficult.
8.  The Allies cannot stop the Japanese from bombing Chinese industry and airfields into the stoneage:
    a)  Too few fighters
    b)  Poor quality pilots
    c)  Impossible to repair damaged planes because supplies too low
    d) Any fighter that is based within range of Japanese aircraft will be destroyed either in a-2-a or by being damaged and then being unable to effect repairs, leaving it stranded at the field forever.
 
The only way to handle this situation is via good House Rules, but it's too late in our game for that.  With Chinese industry wrecked by strategic bombing there is no way to rebuild the country.  China is out of the war.
 
I thought Miller might call of the dogs to keep some modicum of balance in the game, but the employment of eight artillery units at Changsha proved to me that isn't the case.  Accordingly, I sent him this message:
 [font=arial] [/font]
[font=arial]"The situation in China is irretreviably broken.  I have known this for weeks or months of game time and I was sure that you did too.  I haven't said much because I thought you recognized the problem and would call of the dogs and moderate the activity so that there could be some balance to the game.  I don't see what fun there is in playing a game in which one side has a riduclous, unbeatable, and unhistoric advantage that is not supposed to exist and which wrecks game play.  Since the Japanese continue to throw everything at the Chinese, I have concluded that you don't have a problem with this.  [/font][/align][font="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"][/font] [/align][font="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"]The latest Artillery Death Star at Changsha drove home the realization that the dogs aren't being called off to maintain some modicum of balance. While we don't have any house rules, and while the use of eight artillery units falls within the self-imposed rule you proposed and I acknowledged, it clearly isn't going to work - 1688 and 1506 casualties in two days is ridiculous.  The nuclear bombardment at Nanyang a few weeks ago (2000+ casualties in one day) is another example.  [/font]China cannot take these casualites.  The Chinese draw a limited numer of reinforcements and can't draw them when supplies are wrecked.  Supplies are low in China even when all strategic infrastructure is intact, but the sustained strategic bombing campaign really ruined the system and made Chinese existence in the game doubtful.[/align] [/align]China can't be fixed at this point.  The total destruction of strategic targets means China is crippled for the remainder of the war.  The rest of the map is fine and seems balanced, but we've strayed off into the Twilight Zone."[/align] 

[Q-Ball]

Dan, feel your pain. I have a HR in both my PBEMs to prohibit strategic bombing in China. I have no idea how my Allied opponent is doing, but in my other game...well, CF will be reading, let's just say I'm in the fight.

I think there probably needs to be a HR about strat bombing in China. It's too devastating. You can make the HR against ANY city attacks early, which would give the Japanese a break in Burma, where bombing the Oil at Magwe would be very easy otherwise.

Patch 2 promises to do something about the Artillery, which is a start. The other change might be to require larger garrisons by the Japanese.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Q-Ball.  There is no way I'd play this again without that very HR.  Artillery also needs to be addressed (not only supply drawn, but also casualties inflicted - there's no way that artillery ought to wreak havoc every single turn for month after month after month on well-entrenched troops.  Maybe every once in awhile artillery gets lucky and kills a bunch of troops in forts, but most of the time it shouldn't.
 
I think Miller and I may mutually agree that it's now best to halt our game.  The situation in China is broken for two primary reasons - strategic bombing ruined industry and the use of the 17-unit artillery Death Star destroyed my troops at strongly-fortified and defended Chengchow, which in turn unhinged my entire northern MLR.
 
Here's a look at what the Japanese accomplished in strategic bombing during the game.  These figures do not include a few of the interior cities (Chungking and Chengtu, for instance) which haven't been "visited" yet.  It also doesn't include cities recenlty taken by the Japanese - before they fell, the Japanese had completely obliterated all industry in Nanyang, Chengchow, and Loyang (which together produce something more than 100 supply points per turn).
 
City                    Resources   Light Industry   Heavy Industry
Liuchow              (106)   4      ( 33)   7             
Kwielin                ( 40)   0      ( 38)   2
Hengyang            ( 92)  18     ( 40)   0
Changsha            ( 64)  16     (109) 51           (51) 9
Sian                   ( 46) 114     (  7)  53           ( 0) 20
Changteh            ( 37)    3     (  0)  20
Shaoyang           (  40)   0      (20)   0
Kweiyang            (   0)  60     (  0)  40
Kunming             (  39)  21     (  0)  80           (54) 41
Paoshan             (   0)  40     (  0)  20  
 

[Mike Solli]

Yeah, Canoerebel, that's definitely a killer.  We've got a couple of China House Rules.  No bombing of any industry by either side and no more than 5 artillery units per hex.  We're not starting until patch 2 comes out either.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

No, I won't be enjoying the game if it turns into a fiasco in which China (except Chungking) has fallen and Miller loads up all his islands with freed-up troops that belong in China.  The game is already pretty close to the fiasco point.

I don't see him having the sealift to do this, as well as supply them when they get there, as well as keep the economy going. Islands only matter if he has airplanes to keep you from bypassing them. No resources/oil, no airplanes.

From what you've siad here and there, I wonder if you're using your subs enough? In late 1942 I'm getting 5-7 Japanese AKs sunk a week. Yes, it's AI, but it's the same code. Most of them are escorted TFs. I have yet to lose a sub to pure shipborne ASW. (Mines, air, my stupidity in sending S-boats out of fuel range to mine, and one sunk b an IJN sub, but no ship ASW.)

If VPs aren't the issue, and you've said they aren't, what does he accomplish in China by doing what he's doing? Nothing that I can see except wasting time, supplies, and armament points. Keep playing your game. Time is on your side.

[Canoerebel]

Miller has used his subs much more effectively than have I, but he's also losing subs by about a 10:1 ratio - I've lost just three and he's lost about 30.  He parks them close to ports and clobbers vessels.  I tend to patrol further from ports.  I am getting alot of submarine attacks, but 9 out of 10 have hits by duds.  Over the past four days, I had one successful attack and seven hits by duds. 

[Canoerebel]

Miller and I have agreed to end the game.  We may (or may not) start a new one following the release of the second patch.  Here's to a fix for China!

Miller, as always, was a faithful and courteous opponent.  I should acknowledge here that he was the decisive victor in the Battle of the New Hebrides carrier clash.  That was a big battle that was going to slow the Allies by many months.

Miller also was getting the best of me in the sub wars.

The Allies were doing pretty well in establishing a MLR in the Pacific.  Lots of good, strong bases.  Supplies were also plentiful, especially in Australia and India.  I thought I did my best job in China - I was holding my own until the 17-unit artillery death star blew a gaping hole through my MLR at Chengchow.  That base was strongly fortified and had more than 2000 AV.  It was fine until that point.

Miller and I both admit the game is totally addictive.  We'll both miss it like crazy, but I think we're both glad for a respite.

The developers did a marvelous job with AE.  The cool thing about these guys is that their "part of the gang" and are doing their best to fix what problems have been identified.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled celibacy...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Miller has used his subs much more effectively than have I, but he's also losing subs by about a 10:1 ratio - I've lost just three and he's lost about 30.  He parks them close to ports and clobbers vessels.  I tend to patrol further from ports.  I am getting alot of submarine attacks, but 9 out of 10 have hits by duds.  Over the past four days, I had one successful attack and seven hits by duds. 

I use a LOT of 4-ship ASW TFs, and the AI has lost about ten I- and RO-class subs, and four minis. Other than S-boats I lost through stupidity, I've lost seven USN and Dutch front-line subs. I do choke points, lingering, and long-range patrols into areas the Allies didn't go in 1942 (Inland Sea for exampe.) A mid-1942 Japanese AK is worth 5-7 AKs in 1944. Sink 'em early and often. Subs aren't worth many VPs, you get more, better ones, and he needs ore and oil NOW.

I hear you about duds, but I can say that between June 1942 and December 29, 1942 where I am now, crew experience added MAJOR good things to total (not per fish) hit rate. Skippers re-attack a lot now, and out of twelve fish, I almost always get a hit or two. I have a cold bevergae waiting for tonight, when I roll into the New Year 1943 and The Great Torpedo Healing. I've called back every single blasted boat to Pearl for the 12/42 upgrade, and then I'm re-seting patrol zones with fish that work.

HE CAN'T send three million men out to islands and feed them, plus do his resource housework. China is broken, yeah, but the game is far from over. This is just an extreme edition of the first hellish Allied year. Sink his ore carriers. Sink his tnakers. If it's really a busted game, don't be so controlling. Experiment. Let it all hang out. Nobody lurking in your AAR will think less of you.[:)]

Get into some knife fights . . .

[Bullwinkle58]

Yeah, sure, NOW you end it, after I give away all my good advice.[:)]

This is the only AAR I read, so hurry up and start another game already.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Bullwinkle.  I appreciate your encouragement and recognize the sageness of your advice. 
 
I'm sure I'll start another game soon - check back after patch two is released.  But I swear I'm better off mentally not playing this game.  Too addictive by a factor of 276.

[treespider]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The situation in China as of 7/30/42. (Not a pretty one, I might add.)

So just to be a bit sarcastic - Its almost August of 1942 and presumably the Chinese have lost a grand total of 3 or 4 bases...And the Japanese have brought in a bunch of Kwantung Army units presumably paying PP for them so they are not in the South Pacific.

Why did you not try an scatter some ants to threaten the supply lines? If the ants got killed they would return in Chungking and in the meantime Miller would have had to hunt them down.

Yes there are issues with bombardments involving mega stacks...his mega stacks are just as vulnerable... too bad he city bombed your industry.



[/quote]

[khyberbill]

Sian is the back door to Chungking. (Note - Miller is really pouring it on in China what with the artillery, strategic bombing, and conventional bombing; I'm not sure what satisfaction he'll derive from whipping up on the ridiculously weak Chinese, taking most or all of the country, and in doing so throwing the game into the realm of the ridiculous and no fun any more.)

This is what has happened in one of my games. I essentially have lost interest after 9000+av as well as numerous artillery units showed up in Sian. My foe had already garnered about 8000 points beating up on the Chinese earlier. Even though China gets 7 squads a turn in new troops, when one loses 130+ infantry squads per bombardment per turn (and more in support squads), that number starts to look real small. After Sian falls, there is nothing to stop him goint to Chungking. I have built Chungking up to lvl 7 forts however, with the anemic replacement, I have only about 3500 AV there with the rest in Sian (or it was there, now dead or dying). Incidentally, the average exp for me was above 50 in Sian but that doesnt count once the cannons start firing. It appears that supply is not a concern. This game has now been stopped and I have my doubts if it will re-start. What is the point? If you lose all of China, as well as the troops (most are restricted and cant flee to India or Russia) then the point count will defeat you. A game like this shouldn't have the basic premise that one has to have a lot of house rules for infantry and artillery in China.

[Miller]

If the effectiveness of bombardments in China had been tested pre release then myself and Dan would have saved four months of real time playing out this game.

Likewise I wish Dan had said he was unhappy with strategic bombing/bombardments in China to me earlier, then we could agreed on some sort of house rule. Ah well, perhaps I will wait till patch 3 (early 2010)??? before starting again.

[:(]