Decline & Fall AAR v2

[composer99]

The Japanese use their naval moves to put a convoy point out in the China Sea, restoring supply, and place escorts in a high box.

The Japanese have the first option of initiating combat. Suffice to say they will decline.

The US could also initiate combat, in the China Sea. However, in the current weather their submarines only find 20% of the time, while the Japanese find 30% of the time.

Better to wait for better weather, when the convoy makes searching earlier, even with the air power.

[composer99]

The Germans could launch a strategic bombing mission in Italy, using the long-range bomber based in France.

But given the bad weather (halving bombing factors) and, more importantly, the fearsome Allied fighters, the Germans demur.

[composer99]

Germany has the same unpalatable options for ground strikes in Italy: use the long range bomber or use its fighter-bombers in theatre, against superior defences, for low-probability results thanks to the rain.

So, nothing happening there, either.

Edit: Because of the weather, Japan has not had the opportunity to fly planes on bombing missions at all. Only the Arctic and Mediterranean weather zones have weather that planes can fly in (other than rebases).

[composer99]

Rail Movement

Germany rails:
- the armoured division in western Germany to East Poland, on top of HQ Manstein.
- the slow artillery gun in Munich to Florence in Italy.

Japan rails the 5th Mechanized Corps from Manchuria to Shanghai.

[composer99]

Land Movement - Japan

In the centre of China, Japan moves the garrison unit into Hangchow.

Although this disorganizes the unit, it is on the coast so it is in supply (unless the convoy line gets cut), and it doesn't need oil to reorganize.

[composer99]

In the south, the Japanese move their units back towards Canton.

[composer99]

Land Movement - Germany

Germany moves a few units around in France.

Due to supply problems, and especially due to HQ Rommel being disorganized, Germany has little it can do just now about the French in the south.

(The impending Allied invasion from the North Sea and Bay of Biscay as soon as the weather clears might also be a factor in keeping the Germans from heading south to smack down the French landing...)

[composer99]

Germany tries to hold the line in Belorussia.

[composer99]

Germany makes some adjustments to account for the Red Army successes in the Ukraine and Rumania.

The forces in Chisinau are unfortunately left to fend for themselves. They and the units in the mountains will keep the Red Army from advancing deep into Rumania, especially if the turn ends early.

[composer99]

Land Combat

With the awful weather, the Axis is pretty much not launching any land attacks, not even against partisans.

[composer99]

Rebase Missions

The Germans move the Bulgarian bomber to support the front, and the heavy ATR to reorganize units in the East.

[composer99]

For their part, the Japanese rebase a unit to cover Canton against Chinese air attack.

[composer99]

Reorganization

The Germans use the heavy ATR to reorganize the armoured division that railed in earlier.

They also use von Leeb to reorganize the mechanized forces in Belorussia that were disorganized by Soviet artillery early in the turn.

They also use Manstein to reorganize German artillery and airplanes in south-east Poland.

For their part, the Japanese are ineligible to reorganize units.

[composer99]

Allied Impulse #7

Weather
The Allies catch a break, with a high roll of 7. Adding 2 to the weather roll, they get a 9, or fine weather everywhere.

[composer99]

The faster turn progression, due to the poor weather, means there is now a 10% probability the turn will end.

Is it likely? No. But 10% is not trivial.

More significantly, the Axis have a base 20% chance of ending the turn on their impulse, and each Axis major power that passes (because there are only two of them) increases the probability by 10%. (See note below.)

Do the Allies want to take the chance that the turn won't end before invading France? I don't think so.

Note: If all major powers on a side pass during their impulse, the turn can end on a 20% higher probability than the base probability - as long as a die roll can end the turn. If all major powers on a side but one pass during their impulse, the turn can end on a 10% higher probability than base.

(In the attached picture, you'll see the impulse track shows the die roll to end the turn. Passing can only help when the entry is something other than "NA".)

[composer99]

Declaring War & Declaring Actions

None of the Allies declare war on anyone - they have enough war going on at the moment.

The US continues to decline to align Mexico. It might, but probably not until next turn when its oil needs are clearer.

For action calls, both the US and CW call combined impulses and spend their offensive chits. The invasion of France is on!

For their part, the USSR, France, and China all call land impulses.

[composer99]

Port Attack

The Commonwealth carrier planes in the North Sea have no tactical bombing factors.

So they might as well bomb German ships. As intelligence indicates no enemy fighter cover is currently in place over Kiel (a happy circumstance that is doubtless the result of the low air unit density the Germans begin with in this scenario), a raid is swiftly launched.

[composer99]

Raid on Kiel

First up, the Germans decide if they want to commit their subs; not surprisingly, they don't. In a major port, submarines are effectively immune to port attacks from the air. In a minor port, they are vulnerable (dangerously so, given submarines lack anti-air capability).

Next, the two sides make checks for surprise (equivalent to search checks).

The Germans end up extraordinarily well prepared, perhaps tipped off by their own intelligence (they benefit from a 1-10 surprise split in their favour).

What they now have to decide is whether they take the safe bet and cause the combat to be cancelled, or try to catch the carrier planes in bad anti-aircraft fire and hope they roll well enough to destroy something?

[composer99]

In the end, Germany decides to avoid the combat, as it cannot simultaneously reduce damage to a minimum and boost up AA fire to have a reasonable shot at a decisive result.

The Royal Navy carrier air squadrons return to their ships, deterred from attacking, whether by the appearance of an unpleasantly strong German defence, bad weather over the target site, or what have you.

[composer99]

Naval Air

Commonwealth
The Australians fly their planes to defend the US forces in the Coral Sea.