Ukraine 2014

[jtoatoktoe]

Alexander Marquardt ‏@MarquardtA 31m (ABC News Correspondent) who intially tweeted live video.

Siren sounded at Belbek base still in #Ukraine hands. Tension growing. #Russia forces growing outside.

Belbek base being stormed

Standoff between Russians and Ukrainians at Belbek. Russians on base, warning shots, stun grenades. Ukrainians mostly unarmed, shouting.

Col Yuli Mamchur says he doesn't know who will control Belbek base at end of day, ordered men not to shoot.

Livestream cam at Belbek base ripped down by #Russia forces. #Crimea


Commander at Belbek just gave emotional speech to troops, "we are strong in spirit." Followed by anthem. Seems to be winding down.

[Alex1812]

Bad situation

[NakedWeasel]

I think it's safe to say that this is the beginning of a new Cold War. The military industrial complex of the West, especially that of the United States will love the renewed state of paranoia. I just wonder if Russia's citizens are ready to follow Putin on this new trip through the wilderness, or how long it will be before they set out to hang him. We only came close to nuclear holocaust a dozen or so times during the first Cold War, maybe our luck will hold out for a while longer. Frankly, I can't see this is going to benefit the American political left at all. It's time to elect another Reagan. In the meantime, those of us with investments in the defense technology sector should be dancing with joy.

My .05%'s of a Dollar....

[Alex1812]

The main problem is not the new Cold War. It never stopped earlier, so it can not start now. The real problem is the great political and economical crisis in Ukraine. All European countries, USA and Russia should work together to help Ukraine overcome the crisis and elect the new strong government.

Also if we are talking about Command and Ukraine scenario, you can find the list of former Ukrainian ships (with actual photos), which raised the Russian naval flag here: http://forum.sevastopol.info. All text in Russian but it may be translated by using translate.google.com

[NakedWeasel]

Well, I do believe that most American's thought it was over, and when the Wall came down, we were fairly certain we'd won. The fact that most of us in the West believed it was over was a determining factor in the way our defense projects were tailored in the last 20 years. But with that said, if that's the course we are headed down, then so be it- we'll just do the dance again. It's not like we forgot how to make weapons or war.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

Sad, anxious and scared to read it all. Some feast during the plague. People, are you crazy? Where does this aggression, gloating? But recently united all of us is the desire to stop fascism coming from the right sectors! In Sevastopol, and there never was Bandera and Ukrainian ships to serve with you our compatriots, brothers Slavs. Yesterday we all went together to some buses and trolleybuses, sitting in some cinemas, our children went to the same schools and kindergartens! And suddenly today you call them, chase, insulting! Did any of you for one minute trying to put yourself in place Ukrainian sailor or officer, who live in Ukraine, parents, brothers, sisters. How to become one? You gave them time to think? Here they have an apartment, the wife, by the way, mostly from Sevastopol, children, and there, in the Ukraine were other relatives. Yes they have heart breaking with despair, you need to make a choice. It is possible to do for a few days or hours? And you are happy that they "face into the deck" lay! What differentiates you from those that threaten us? Stop it! We are against fascism, but not against the Ukrainians! And is there any pure Russian and Ukrainians, we have long been assimilated. Right quadrant - a cancerous tumor on the centuries-old friendship between Russian and Ukrainians. We are family, we are one. Study history, NEVER aggression was not supported any regime! Only democracy, freedom of choice and only enforce laws allow leaders to remain in power. Ashamed to read your posts. Not for this, I went to vote! We had an enemy outside, but you have made it one of those who for years have lived with you in one city, and does not itself tarnished!

What a poignant post.... [:(]

[NakedWeasel]

It is poignant and sad, indeed. When one considers the cries of "Death to the Occupiers!" to basically mean their brothers, it's brutally cold. And what's more, Russia has lost the trust of one of it's most trusted neighbors, forever. The majority of Ukrainians would rather die than to ever return to being slaves to the fascist state of the Kremlin.

[Alex1812]

What a poignant post...

Yes, it does. Our talking about Cold War and sanctions doesn't help the Ukrainian people.

Сrisis in Ukraine began many years ago. While the whole World was watching the victories of their athletes at the Sochi Olympic Games, Ukraine was falling down. Who started this process and helped the opposition destroy the country? In any case, all of our governments should not talk about the War, they mast seeking the ways how help the Ukrainian people to survive, and then how to build the new strong country. We really need to work together like it was many times in history. Sanctions (oh, if you only know how peoply laughing over them) and words that Ivan cames back does not help the people from Ukraine.

The situation in Ukraine every day getting worse (does not looking CNN, just read the Ukrainian forums). Russia protected ours peoples in Crimea from the Ukraine collapse. Now all of as must help the other Ukrainians to build the new country.

[NakedWeasel]

Frankly Alex, I don't see how it is necessary for any foreign nation to "build" a new Ukraine. It's up to the Ukrainians to decide how to proceed into the future. Now, the damage is done, and an invasion has taken place. Russia bit off more than it can chew, here. They will have to fund Crimea's considerable debt. Further, they have made themselves look like Nazi stormtroopers to the entire world- even Kazakhstan has condemned the Russian aggression. And the long term effect will be, the West will totally start to arm for war against further Russian incursions, in essence, restarting the Cold War. The Soviet Union couldn't afford the costs of competing with the West, collapsing under it's corruption and inefficiency. Now they are starting again even more isolated, even weaker than they were (compared to the West) after WWII. They are completely surrounded by NATO- and ridiculously under-funded.

This is all a grand scheme of Putin, who hopes to return Russia to the former power and relevance of the USSR, by becoming a Neo-Soviet Union. Russia can only gear up to compete in a new Cold War, by taking all of the Russian people's money, and turning the nation into an armed slave-camp again. H'e just not prepared for the inevitable response from the US and it's allies- which will be to beat him just like they beat his predecessors. They will win by forcing him to build and arm to a degree that he cannot afford.

Mark my words, the Russian people will be cursing Putin, and will be out for his blood in the years to come. It's just a matter of time.

[Gunner98]

ORIGINAL: NakedWeasel

Well, I do believe that most American's thought it was over, and when the Wall came down, we were fairly certain we'd won. The fact that most of us in the West believed it was over was a determining factor in the way our defense projects were tailored in the last 20 years. But with that said, if that's the course we are headed down, then so be it- we'll just do the dance again. It's not like we forgot how to make weapons or war.

Funny how history repeats itself, it was 19 years between 1918 & 1939, we in the west thought the Great war was the one to end all wars - and that it was over. Our defence spending took a nose dive. Many historians now claim that WW2 was just a continuation of WW1 after an intermission, none of the actual underlying issues were solved in 1918, and indeed, more were built in 1919.

As the stomach turns.

B

[Alex1812]

Funny how history repeats itself

Yes, it's funny and you are absolutely right. There is very interesting analogy:

First World War was started by Western countries
Second World War was started by Western countries
Cold War was started by Western countries too
Ukrainian crisis was started by ... [:-]


P.S. There is one popular meme which I seen in many places: "Thanks gentlemens for your 5 billions of dollars. You bought the Crimea for Russia"

[Sardaukar]

ORIGINAL: Alex1812

Funny how history repeats itself

Yes, it's funny and you are absolutely right. There is very interesting analogy:

First World War was started by Western countries
Second World War was started by Western countries
Cold War was started by Western countries too
Ukrainian crisis was started by ... [:-]


P.S. There is one popular meme which I seen in many places: "Thanks gentlemens for your 5 billions of dollars. You bought the Crimea for Russia"

And of course Russia/Soviet Union was just innocent bystander. [:D]

[Alex1812]

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar
And of course Russia/Soviet Union was just innocent bystander. [:D]

It's another question, but yes, it's also very interesting [;)]

[beserko]

I suppose when Stalin and Hitler divided up Poland ,that didn't start WWII? And what about that "iron curtain" that thousands died trying to cross? The west is sick of revisionist Russians and BIG lies.

[DeltaIV]

In the context of invasion of Crimea, i have to briefly present Budapest Memorandum (only beserko has mentioned this in the thread so far), which was signed in 1994:

Code: Select all

 According to the memorandum, Russia, the U.S., and the UK confirmed, 
 in recognition of Ukraine becoming party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation 
 of Nuclear Weapons and in effect abandoning its nuclear arsenal to Russia,
 that they would:
 
     Respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its existing borders.
     Refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukraine.
     Refrain from using economic pressure on Ukraine in order to influence its politics.
     Seek United Nations Security Council action if nuclear weapons are used against Ukraine.
     Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Ukraine.
     Consult with one another if questions arise regarding these commitments.
 

Ukraine has fulfilled all the points presented above. Apparently, Russia didn't acted according to specifications of this agreement, neither did UK (as a country that is part of EU). I think that this memorandum is now completely dead and useless.

I live in Czech Republic. EU has already employed some of the economical sanctions against Russia. Czech republic sent numerous transports to handle the seriously wounded in the capital of Kyiv during the pro-european demonstrations and now also the question of "czech citizens" on the Crimea has reappeared (inhabitants with Czech roots, with the knoweldge of czech language, that "colonized" the eastern Ukraine, due to agricultural/social circumstances during later 19th century).

Sanctions risen by the EU against Russia will definitely negatively affect the economy of whole EU.

I don't see anything positive coming out of this. We can only blame our good 'ol Nikita (that artifically joined the Crimean peninsula to Ukrainian SSR in 50's - to test the power, and gain some extra political points from local patriots).

From what i've heard, Transnistria (the separatistic part of Moldova) is also conducting steps to join with the Russia. Estonia was also diplomatically "warned" to handle the situation of russian-speaking citizens in their country correctly.

These are interesting times.

[AlmightyTallest]

This isn't over by a long shot.

3 hours ago

Al Jazeera: Russian forces could pose wider threat: NATO

NATO's top military commander says Russia has amassed a force on Ukraine's eastern border large enough to pose a threat to other post-Soviet republics. United States Air Force General Philip Breedlove said Russia had assembled enough forces to run to the pro-Russian region of Transnistria in Moldova, if it decided it wanted to.
/u/MomentsB4TheWind

It gets expensive having so many forces doing maneuvers out in the field over a period of time, unless you plan to use them in the short term.

NATO is waking up, there are signs of Cold War ver. 2.0 firing up.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/22/us-poland-usa-military-idUSBREA2L0AU20140322?irpc=932

The U.S. should increase its military presence in Poland and in other NATO members in central and eastern Europe in light of the Ukraine crisis, Polish Defence Minister Tomasz Siemoniak said on Saturday.

Siemoniak said Washington was open towards the idea but detailed talks were yet to begin.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden visited Poland last Tuesday and confirmed plans to deploy elements of a U.S. missile shield in Poland by 2018 and met with the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Bronislaw Komorowski.

"The U.S. must increase its presence in (central and eastern) Europe, also in Poland," he said RMF FM radio.

Short term the U.S. will make a bigger presence, long term I've seen a lot of NATO countries suddenly increasing their defense spending so that in the long term, they'll be more ready for the expected threat.

[NakedWeasel]

As proven in Afghanistan, Russia is not as capable as it thinks it is against a determined, and equipped force, fighting on their home turf. Let them come to invade, and send them home in bags. Europe is ready to receive them.

[DeltaIV]

I expect the Ukraine to take the easternmost 'okresy(oblasti)' (say provinces in english), since these have mostly russian-speaking inhabitants (this is last eligble casus belli they have on Ukrainian territory). If that's not enough, more countries will get involved.

[guanotwozero]

ORIGINAL: Alex1812
First World War was started by Western countries

Yes, AND Imperial Russia who backed Serbia. By modern standards, the blame game there is based on international escalation (July Crisis) rather than calming things down, and in that Russia was JUST as guilty as the other powers.

Second World War was started by Western countries

Yes, when Germany invaded Poland on 1/9/1939. Then the Soviet Union ALSO invaded Poland on 17/9/1939, divided up under the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Both aggressive acts were quickly followed by the attempted Soviet invasion of Finland which began on 30/11/1939.

Cold War was started by Western countries too

No, the blame for that rests entirely with the Soviet Union. They annexed large areas, subverted democracy to create puppet states and formed the "Iron Curtain". In fact the blame should not be put on the Soviet people, just one controlling man from Poti. Those who followed him, however, did not reverse his actions.

Ukrainian crisis was started by ... [:-]

Arguably the current one was started by Viktor Yanukovych, who mismanaged his office, stole the money, and ran his country into the ground. Of course, he was just following in the footsteps of his predecessors.

However, many countries have had internal crises, as the struggle between corrupt autocrats and people-power plays out. In such crises local extremists usually appear as a small part of the mix, but disappear to the margins when the crisis resolves.

What makes this one VASTLY different is that a neighbouring country has invaded and annexed a part of its territory, contrary to international law and signed multilateral agreements. That's what makes this an MAJOR international crisis instead of local. For that, the blame rests with one controlling man from St Petersburg.

I do not believe we are returning to the Cold War, as that was a global situation driven by ideology. It was fuelled by the turbulence of the post-colonial situations (e.g. Africa), as well as populism vs. traditional authoritarianism (e.g. Latin America). Europe was about Soviet-controlled buffer states. Soviet "soft power" was able to gain many supporters in that troubled world, which followed up with hard power and proxy wars.

This crisis happens in a very different world. Russia does not have many allies around the world, has no attractive ideology for anyone, no "soft power" to convince people (outside Russia) to support Putin's actions. Russia is largely isolated, and will become increasingly so with the aftermath.

P.S. There is one popular meme which I seen in many places: "Thanks gentlemens for your 5 billions of dollars. You bought the Crimea for Russia"

The only trouble is that Crimea was not for sale. Theft =/= purchase.

[DeltaIV]

No, the blame for that rests entirely with the Soviet Union. They annexed large areas, subverted democracy to create puppet states and formed the "Iron Curtain". In fact the blame should not be put on the Soviet people, just one controlling man from Poti. Those who followed him, however, did not reverse his actions.

Agreed. Same case as annexation of Crimea. To my knoweldge, Russian parliament ("Duma") democratically authorized every step of Russian federation against Ukraine that has been performed during what we call Ukrainian crisis. Heck, they even hastily prepared the law that de-iure handles the absorbtion of foreign country or such-like element into Russian Federation.