Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi

[CaptBeefheart]

Good point on the nav search. I also use Aussie and Kiwi Hudsons for nav search since there never seem to be enough PBYs.

No profound thoughts on what your opponent may be doing. I've seen AARs where the IJ player goes for a January 1, 1943 auto-victory, and one way is to do strategic bombing in Australia to rack up points. Is he doing that or does it look like he's setting up for a bombing campaign? Have you had any discussion with him on auto-vic?

EDIT: This might be a good time to show us the screen with the victory points.

Cheers,
CB

[aaffins]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Good point on the nav search. I also use Aussie and Kiwi Hudsons for nav search since there never seem to be enough PBYs.

No profound thoughts on what your opponent may be doing. I've seen AARs where the IJ player goes for a January 1, 1943 auto-victory, and one way is to do strategic bombing in Australia to rack up points. Is he doing that or does it look like he's setting up for a bombing campaign? Have you had any discussion with him on auto-vic?

EDIT: This might be a good time to show us the screen with the victory points.

Cheers,
CB

We have not discussed auto victory. He's below 3:1 right now, so he would really need to take it to us over the next 7 months for that to be a possibility. No strategic bombing of any sort as yet.

[aaffins]

April 25, 1942

The KB moves north, a surprise, and hits our airfield at Charters Towers:

Afternoon Air attack on Charters Towers , at 91,145

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 115 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 43 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 91
B5N1 Kate x 16
B5N2 Kate x 152
D3A1 Val x 108

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N1 Kate: 1 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 3 damaged
D3A1 Val: 15 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
B-17D Fortress: 107 damaged
B-17D Fortress: 1 destroyed on ground
Wirraway: 46 damaged
Wirraway: 6 destroyed on ground
Hudson I: 21 damaged
Hudson I: 4 destroyed on ground
P-400 Airacobra: 36 damaged
P-400 Airacobra: 3 destroyed on ground
P-39D Airacobra: 23 damaged
P-39D Airacobra: 5 destroyed on ground
B-17E Fortress: 112 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 4 destroyed on ground
P-40E Warhawk: 29 damaged
P-40E Warhawk: 3 destroyed on ground
O-47A: 3 damaged
O-47A: 3 destroyed on ground

Allied ground losses:
12 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 12
Airbase supply hits 14
Runway hits 82

Afternoon Air attack on Charters Towers , at 91,145

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 51 NM, estimated altitude 2,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 18 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 29
D3A1 Val x 17

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
D3A1 Val: 7 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 3 damaged
P-39D Airacobra: 3 damaged
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed on ground
Hudson I: 1 damaged
Hudson I: 1 destroyed on ground
Wirraway: 3 damaged
Wirraway: 1 destroyed on ground
P-400 Airacobra: 1 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
16 x D3A1 Val bombing from 1000 feet
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Charters Towers , at 91,145

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 49 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 13
B5N2 Kate x 17

Allied aircraft
no flights

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 5 damaged
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed on ground
Wirraway: 1 damaged
Wirraway: 1 destroyed on ground
P-39D Airacobra: 5 damaged
Hudson I: 2 damaged
P-400 Airacobra: 3 damaged
P-400 Airacobra: 1 destroyed on ground
B-17D Fortress: 1 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 5 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
17 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Ouch. 57 aircraft of various types were destroyed. Airfield wasn't overstacked or anything. Reminder of how effective the KB can be.
We move most of the damaged planes out via rail to Townsville and Cloncurry.

[aaffins]

April 26, 1942

This is pretty stupid on my part...trusting the AI routing on a fuel convoy moving from Colombo to Perth and we get bushwhacked by Betties from Port Blair:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Koggala at 29,57

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 10 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 3 damaged

Allied Ships
DE Jumna, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAK Modjekerto, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
xAK Malancha, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Sloterdijk, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x G4M1 Betty launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo


Enemy TFs operating up in the Bering Sea. We fly an ineffectual raid with PBYs from Dutch Harbor.
BB Nevada heads out from Seattle. I promise to stay out of range of LBA this time.

Follow up strike by the KB nets another 14 damaged planes at Charters Towers.

[aaffins]

April 27, 1942

He's really playing us well in NE Oz. Presumably guessing we might rail planes to Townsville he bombards with two CAs...luckily we don't lose any planes to this.

I-3 attacks our CV TF near Wellington, NZ. He didn't sight the CVs, but that escort combo kinds of screams CV TF, I think. He must at least suspect.

ASW attack near Wellington at 112,193

Japanese Ships
SS I-3, hits 1

Allied Ships
CA San Francisco
CA Chicago
CL Nashville
CL Phoenix
DD Farragut
DD Porter
DD Le Triomphant
DD Monaghan
DD Dale
DD Hull

KB disappears to the east.

He begins raiding Chungking, but it's not effective.

We try to intercept Oscars and Sallies raiding Akyab with P-39s from Chittagong, but it doens't work and we lose 7 planes.

The IJA 56th Div continues its push into the Chinese mountains, capturing Paoshan. We begin concentrating forces at Tsuyung in response.

[Anachro]

You are approaching a period where you can start discerning the extent of the Japanese expansion, especially now that the landing bonus for his troops are gone. Your carrier strength will pack a decent punch in a little bit, with the Wasp arriving soon enough. How do you plan to start pushing back (and where) and creating enough friction that can force your opponent into making a mistake?

[aaffins]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

You are approaching a period where you can start discerning the extent of the Japanese expansion, especially now that the landing bonus for his troops are gone. You're carrier strength will pack a decent punch in a little bit, with the Wasp arriving soon enough. How do you plan to start pushing back (and where) and creating enough friction that can force your opponent into making a mistake?

This is a good question. At present I feel like we're solidly positioned in most key areas:
-Pago Pago is 250 AV+ with Lvl 4 forts
-Christmas I. is over 200 AV with Lvl 5 forts
It would take a massive commitment of resources on his part to make a push in on this axis, particularly with the amphib bonus expiring.

We have strong forces entrenching on the Burmese border with Chittagong, Imphal and Ledo all well garrisoned and fortifying.

China isn't great, but that has a lot do with him committing five unrestricted divisions. If that results in Chungking falling in the spring of '43 I think we can live with it.

We might be moderately vulnerable in the North Pacific, but we have two well entrenched and supplied regiments at Kodiak...and he hasn't even taken Dutch Harbor yet.

We are vulnerable if he were to make a concerted push for Ceylon, Perth or NZ, but it's quite late in the game to go for something like that, I think. And in the case of the later two we'd have plenty of warning.

Eastern Australia seems to be emerging as the key battleground, and I think we're well positioned. We have 1,000 AV, including the Aus 7th Div, behind Lvl 4 forts and well supplied at Townsville. It would take a a long siege and a big commitment from the IJA to dislodge that, I believe.

I think we can contain the forces from Rockhampton...we have the 2nd and 6th Aus Divs moving into position at Bundaberg. The US Americal divisions is ferrying over from NZ and we have several US Army regiments inbound as well. I just don't think the math adds up for him here unless he significantly increases his commitment.

As far as what he's doing...he's built the heck out of Luganville. I'm pretty sure it's his main fleet base. Most of his naval assets seem to be in SoPac. We have accounted for most of his divisions (see below) so it's hard for me to see how he's going to assemble a serious offensive without some major rearrangement of his forces. My guess is he's not targeting any sort of auto vic situation and is trying to prepare himself for a long defensive war.

[Anachro]

I wouldn't worry too much about a push on Ceylon or the Aleutians, even he does take them, they can be bypassed and made into a Japanese PoW camp. That said, having Adak as a staging base for a push on Hokkaido in the end game is a nice thing. Honestly, the only one of those that makes sense as a potential push given your opponent's position is NZ.

[aaffins]

April 28, 1942

We begin night bombing Rockhampton with B-17s and Hudsons. It's not effective

He lands at Nome and Bethel in Alaska. Not a great deal we can do about this, but also not really that big a problem.

Pretty quiet turn to be honest.

April 29, 1942

Our night raids bear a bit of fruit, destroying a couple Zekes on the ground at Rockhampton

A quartet of CAs bombard Townsville again, but not many aircraft left there, no losses. Moderate damage to the airfield and port - approx. 30% for each

The Chinese Air Force flies against the enemy over Chungking, intel says we got 19 Sallies. Good.

Nome falls to a regiment of the 7th IJA ID. Undefended Bethel is captured as well.

Pakhoi is attacked by a couple of Vietnamese militia regiments, we have a battalion strength unit there so despite the low quality of the enemy I suspect numbers will prevail in time.

April 30, 1942

A trio of DDs try their luck at Rockhampton but are intercepted by IJN DDs. No significant damage to either side. We pull back towards Sydney and he heads east.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Rockhampton at 95,152, Range 10,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Yugumo
DD Hagikaze
DD Minegumo
DD Suresushio

Allied Ships
DD Barker
DD Bulmer, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Edsall

Another hit at Townsville, 5 CLs this time. He almost nets some of our super valuable F-4 recon planes but we get lucky. This tempo of bombardments is pretty impressive. Not doing a lot to hurt us though aside from denying Townsville's airfield, which we expected.

The 11th Air Force operating out of Anchorage gets into action against Bethel to good effect:

Afternoon Air attack on 67th Naval Guard Unit, at 173,38 (Bethel)

Allied aircraft
B-18A Bolo x 6

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
52 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied aircraft
B-18A Bolo x 6

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
28 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied aircraft
B-26 Marauder x 13

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
75 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied aircraft
B-18A Bolo x 6

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
15 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Sucks to be the 67th Nav Guard Unit.

[BBfanboy]

Alaskan bases seem unimportant, but some of them have big multipliers for the VP count. If he is going for Autovictory you should check what other bases with high multipliers are close to his current perimeter and do your best to deny them to him.

[aaffins]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Alaskan bases seem unimportant, but some of them have big multipliers for the VP count. If he is going for Autovictory you should check what other bases with high multipliers are close to his current perimeter and do your best to deny them to him.

Anchorage would net him about 500 plus whatever he gets for destroying LCUs there. Dutch Harbor, Kodiak and Cold Bay are all less than 100. The value from them would come more from destroying US LCUs. I'd estimate if he completely cleaned us out in the North Pacific he might gain 3,000 VPs. That'd still leave him around 4,000 short of auto vic so to me it's not a huge concern. Until he takes Kodiak (or cuts it off with air power) I don't think there's much of a threat in this theater for us.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: aaffins

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Alaskan bases seem unimportant, but some of them have big multipliers for the VP count. If he is going for Autovictory you should check what other bases with high multipliers are close to his current perimeter and do your best to deny them to him.

Anchorage would net him about 500 plus whatever he gets for destroying LCUs there. Dutch Harbor, Kodiak and Cold Bay are all less than 100. The value from them would come more from destroying US LCUs. I'd estimate if he completely cleaned us out in the North Pacific he might gain 3,000 VPs. That'd still leave him around 4,000 short of auto vic so to me it's not a huge concern. Until he takes Kodiak (or cuts it off with air power) I don't think there's much of a threat in this theater for us.

Valdez, Whittier and Seward are X10. Juneau is X100. Don't forget to project the points he gets from building the bases a little. Each AF level on Juneau is 200 points for him. Ditto for all those good bases in SOPAC that he already has.

[aaffins]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: aaffins

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Alaskan bases seem unimportant, but some of them have big multipliers for the VP count. If he is going for Autovictory you should check what other bases with high multipliers are close to his current perimeter and do your best to deny them to him.

Anchorage would net him about 500 plus whatever he gets for destroying LCUs there. Dutch Harbor, Kodiak and Cold Bay are all less than 100. The value from them would come more from destroying US LCUs. I'd estimate if he completely cleaned us out in the North Pacific he might gain 3,000 VPs. That'd still leave him around 4,000 short of auto vic so to me it's not a huge concern. Until he takes Kodiak (or cuts it off with air power) I don't think there's much of a threat in this theater for us.

Valdez, Whittier and Seward are X10. Juneau is X100. Don't forget to project the points he gets from building the bases a little. Each AF level on Juneau is 200 points for him. Ditto for all those good bases in SOPAC that he already has.

Great point, thank you. I had not even looked that far east. You're right that losing those bases, along with likely Prince Rupert, would be a considerable concern. If he were to take all those and we weren't able to score some points elsewhere you're right that we'd be on the verge of Auto Vic concerns. I'd like to think we'd be able to make him pay for a more aggressive incursion but this is something we should at least be aware of.

[aaffins]

Here's our end of the month accounting. Ships sunk first. Not a pretty picture for us. Bulk of these losses are from disastrous attempt at Lord Howe Island and our misadventure in the Aleutians. In addition we lost 12 DDs to what's shown here.

I'd be surprised if all 3 of those IJN CAs are truly sunk, but there's probably a good chance at least two are. One small positive is that the IJN did admit we sunk the CS Nisshin (60 VPs) in our CV raid on the DEI in March.

[CaptBeefheart]

Bethel and Nome? What's he doing, trying to capture Santa Claus? Think of the morale hit.

I've never seen those bases in play. I usually move that USN base force from Nome down to Adak when I get a chance, hopefully before it dies of starvation.

Cheers,
CB

[aaffins]

Aircraft losses are not quite so bleak. I'm better at aircraft?

In terms of losses this month:

Allies Grand Total: 290

US:
36 P-39D
24 B-17E (this is a problem, between long range raids on Raoul and Lord Howe, the recent enemy attacks on Charters Towers and my use of the 4Es as recon by bombing units I've significantly depleted our pool of reserves, have to clean this up)
19 P-40E
12 PBY-5 (price of flying air search when the KB is about)
6 B-17D
9 P-40B
9 Soc-1 Seagulls (getting your ship shot out from under you has this effect)

Commonwealth:
23 Blenheim IV (misadventures of the RAF in Burma...not as big a deal as the 4Es, but need to stop losing these
16 Wirraway
14 Hudsons

Japan Grand Total: 316

Interesting note here, we're still at 296 Sallies (the IIa variant), but 25 have been reclassified as shot down by AA to ops losses. Wonder how that works with FOW.

Zero: 74 (48 A2A)
Jake: 49 (mostly ops again)
Betty: -61 (thanks intel guys...)
Val: 26
Oscar: 36
Babs: 65 (not sure how much to believe this...he's flying recon missions over much more hotly contested bases now, but still...)
Lily: 41
Nell: 26
Old Sally (Ic variant): 35
Mavis: 36 (see above note Re: Babs)
Oscar (1b + 1c): 53

[aaffins]

And finally here's the VP count. It's certainly not great, but I don't think we're in the auto victory danger zone quite yet.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Bethel and Nome? What's he doing, trying to capture Santa Claus? Think of the morale hit.

I've never seen those bases in play. I usually move that USN base force from Nome down to Adak when I get a chance, hopefully before it dies of starvation.

Cheers,
CB

IIRC, Canoerebel or another longtime player here was faced with a sudden Japanese incursion through the Aleutians into Alaska and Canada. Initially it looked like an Aleutians invasion plan with KB raiding but soon more troops came and kept on taking bases. The Allies had lots of damaged ships and some of them were forced to retreat north of the Aleutians by KB's presence. Nome turned out to be a lifesaver - the Japanese ignored it and several important ships licked their wounds there until KB departed and they could flee south. That's the only time I saw Nome in play.

[CaptBeefheart]

BBFanboy: Good memory. I think CR was playing Panzerjaeger (sp?) Hortlund at the time. In this game, could there be a good reason, or is it just misdirection?

I recall Hortlund's effort to either take valuable real estate in the Pacific Northwest or gain strategic bombing points on Seattle et al. fizzled out.

Cheers,
CB

[Cheesesteak]

Everything thus far points to our opponent being detail oriented. I suspect these are point generating moves. Also interesting he is dedicating so much to building Luganville. Even if he bought out lots of engineers from Manchukuo, my understanding is he can't be doing this at all points. Somewhere, be it the Kuriles, DEI, Malaya, Burma, or CenPac, isn't getting the love.

speaking of love, we have come up with several nicknames for our opponent (since RADM Yamaguchi just doesnt roll off the tongue): Tamagotchi, The Gooch, Gooch-dog(dawg).

RADM Tamagotchi received a small butcher's bill at Norfolk Island, courtesy of some DDs. Post to follow if I can find the CR.