OT: Corona virus

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I forgot to allow for the sheer volume of MakeeLearn's posts. [X(]

He hasn't (or hadn't, by the time of this post) posted in at least a day. Must be really busy at work.

Yes I was. I get 40hrs in 2-3 days. Then Iam off for 4/5. It's nice I like it.

Any time CV19 talk comes up, I divert it.
"What is your favorite candy?"
"What color horse is your favorite?" Lonesome Dove marathon was playing.
And most important - Humor

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There Is No Plan for the End of the Coronavirus Crisis
Apr. 5, 2020

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04 ... risis.html


"But in recent days, Hong Kong and Taiwan, noting a rise of new cases arriving via international visitors, have shut their borders. Cases are spiking in Japan, and a second wave of infections is feared in China, as well.

Which means that, all told, many of the nations desperate Americans have spent the last few months praising as exemplary models of public health management do not actually have the virus under control — or at least not to the degree it appeared a few weeks ago, or to the degree you might be hoping for if you expected a (relatively) quick end to quarantine measures and economic shutdown followed by a (relatively) rapid snapback to “normal” life and economic recovery."

I read this over the weekend.

It was (and is) concerning. Thanks for sharing more broadly.

You're welcome.

[Canoerebel]

Korea has had low levels of new cases and comparatively few mortalities for many, many weeks, as we've noted previously.

They got it under control well but can't quite eradicate the stubborn critter.

Would it be expected that other countries are likely to have the same issue?

P.S. Many weeks ago, Cpt. Beefheart noted that Korea schools were set to reopen in early April (I think he said the 8th). I wonder if that plan held.

[MakeeLearn]

Key Coronavirus Model Now Predicts Many Fewer U.S. Deaths
2 hrs ago
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/key-c ... li=BBnb7Kz

"A Sunday update of a prominent COVID-19 forecasting model suggests that fewer lives will be lost during the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak than previously thought."

"The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now predicts that 81,766 people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S. through early August. When the model was last updated, on April 2, it predicted 11,765 deaths more deaths, for a total of 93,531."

"The April 5 update predicts the need for 140,823 total hospital beds and 29,210 ICU beds at the peak of the outbreak. Those numbers are down 121,269 and 10,517, respectively."

"The model also revised downward the prediction for the number of ventilators needed at the height of the outbreak. It now predicts the need for 18,992 ventilators, down from 31,782."

"Crucially, it also assumes the continuation of social distancing until early August, well beyond the April 30 guidelines currently set forth by the White House."

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Dumb Press Headline of the Moment: "DC Mayor says 1 in 7 could be infected."

Context: That's 15%. A week ago, two weeks ago, national and international leaders were predicting 50% to 70% (I saw 80% in one country) infection rate. Assuming the DC mayor is in the right ballpark (big if) that would be hugely encouraging news undeserving of the kind of headline that scares people.

It's DC. Nobody knows what a percentage is

[8|]

If only 15% of people are infected, that's nowhere near close enough for herd immunity... which means that more than 15% of people will become infected unless the virus is eradicated. Fat chance of that.

Currently no country in the world has a 15% infection rate that we know of, and if they had it would be beyond catastrophic. The US currently is at a 0.11% infection rate according to tests taken. Spain is the highest for large countries (1 million plus) at 0.30% of it's total population, according to tests. Even using some experts estimates of a 10x known infection rate, that is considerably lower than 15%!!

I hope that's a not so dumb headline of the day in the other direction, and he's wildly overestimating so people take this seriously, and that such a high rate doesn't end up happening.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Makee. I wondered if the news would come out as soon as today.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, Makee. I wondered if the news would come out as soon as today.

Welcome. The numbers may be like bracketed indirect fire.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: witpqs

We all read and see some news, the trouble is figuring out what actually has happened and what has not happened based on news reports. It isn't easy, and it sure is frustrating.

Not to mention exploited by some. It takes effort to figure out whether somebody is reporting the truth to you or not, and most people don't make that effort.

Those who mistrust the press could easily find trustworthy sources, if they chose to put in the effort and adopted good newsreading habits.

But most people don't, because it can be frustrating. Welcome to the real world.

There are some tools to help. We use this with students to get them thinking about the categories of bias and misrepresentation that might be occurring with some news sources, and it's pretty useful to get an idea of hw they stack up. When you search the icon appears near a news site and (usually) gives this rating page on rollover. Unfortunately due to the now cluttered landscape of blogs, privately owned and operated "news" sites and other areas of acquiring information online, not all are yet rated.

If anyone knows another method please post a link.

[Canoerebel]

Bear in mind the many predictions given that various countries would experience 50% to 70% infected. Here's and exmaple for the US: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronaviru ... 020-03-02/
Here's one for Germany: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856

So when the DC mayor predicted 15%, that sounded very optimistic in comparison.

Your point below is exactly right! I made that last week, when I noted there were two inconsistencies that couldn't be reconciled: either the infection rates couldn't be 50% to 70% or the mortality rates couldn't be 1% to 3%.

ORIGINAL: obvert
I hope that's a not so dumb headline of the day in the other direction, and he's wildly overestimating so people take this seriously, and that such a high rate doesn't end up happening.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

My sister-in-law is an internist at UPMC and got this link in a newsletter:

https://www.upmc.com/coronavirus/vaccin ... _Apr-20_e1

Posted this 2-3 days ago! There is another quite far along in the works also from BAT (British American Tobacco), believe it or not, that is grown in the Genetically modified tobacco plants!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This article contains additional background on past leaks of viruses from labs in China.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15844/coronavirus-china-cover-up

[EDIT] This is from a less trustworthy site known mostly for its Anti-Musilm articles and xenophobic content in general.
https://theintercept.com/2018/03/23/gat ... slim-hate/

[font="Trebuchet MS"]The fact-checking website Snopes has found multiple false viral stories originating with Gatestone. For instance, the site claimed falsely that in London — called “Londonistan” in the piece — 423 mosques were built “on the sad ruins of English Christianity,” as 500 churches closed. But the story cherry-picked the data to ignore hundreds of newly opened churches.

Many of the fake stories have percolated into mainstream U.S. politics. Gatestone was largely responsible for the false claim that there are “no-go zones” through Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, and other European states where Muslim immigrants have set up a parallel society in which local police no longer enforce the law.[/font]

However, from my limited fact checking of links, it seems to be (mostly) well supported and researched, with links to the BBC, the Times and other reputable institutions. Curious anyway for more input on the content and possible validity.

Here is one excerpt, but there is much more about how accidental releases from Chinese labs have happened before. Much of the information comes from Chinese scientists and medical professionals, who are just as wary of their government (or more so) than many of us are. It would be good to get some input from anyone who speaks Chinese and can corroborate these sources.

"Less than 300 yards from the seafood market is the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention" wrote David Ignatius of the Washington Post.

"Researchers from that facility and the nearby Wuhan Institute of Virology have posted articles about collecting bat coronaviruses from around China, for study to prevent future illness. Did one of those samples leak, or was hazardous waste deposited in a place where it could spread?".

"Collecting viruses" presumably does not exclude the possibility of a "leaked virus". Worse, if China is not able to protect its laboratories, it needs to be held accountable and made to pay for the devastating global damage.

"Experts know the new coronavirus is not a bioweapon. They disagree on whether it could have leaked from a research lab", stated The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Professor Richard Ebright of Rutgers University's Waksman Institute of Microbiology, and a major biosecurity expert, agreed with the Nature Medicine authors' argument that the coronavirus was not manipulated by humans. But Ebright does think it possible that the Covid-19 started as an accidental leak from a laboratory, such as one of the two in Wuhan, which are known to have been studying bat viruses:

"Virus collection or animal infection with a virus having the transmission characteristics of the outbreak virus would pose substantial risk of infection of a lab worker, and from the lab worker, the public."

Ebright has also claimed that bat coronaviruses are studied in Wuhan at Biosafety Level 2, "which provides only minimal protection" compared with the top BSL-4.

Although it sounds like conspiracy theory, there have been so many links to the labs in Wuhan that have some validity and many citations here bring up missing doctors, scientists and journalists from the December to January period of this crisis in China. there is also ample evidence the Chinese initially destroyed all evidence of this virus in the labs studying it after it was noticed in Wuhan.

Thanks for the comments, Erik. I had some in mind but decided to post the link by itself. One thing which caught my notice was the use of the word "trafficking", which I question because to me it connotes commerce of some sort. Certainly working with, studying, transporting, etc., but trafficking? Maybe not fair for the author to use that term.

I don't recall if I ever saw anything from that website before so I don't know their predilections. As you do, I like to see things from multiple sources/angles, and this is way beyond the first write-up I've seen on much of what they wrote. I also like the number of sources they linked, though at least one I looked at was not much content (but it was on a minor point).

As far as "fact check"-ing goes, sadly it long ago passed into a cesspool of abuse. Much of the time I see a "fact check" today it is just as likely to be blatantly wrong as what is ostensibly being checked, just like the rest of journalism. Often I see a week or two or three later when the fact check is utterly overturned and the person they sought to contradict is shown to have spoken/written truthfully, so I view fact checks with the same skepticism I do everything else.

As for Snopes itself, I (and probably everyone else) regarded them quite highly until the couple who (at that time) ran the web site admitted to falsifying a fact check during the 2008 US election cycle because they wanted to assist one candidate over another. Being mistaken is one thing, lying is something else entirely. Not that what they did even affected the matter in question, but when I learned of that I decided I will never take Snopes at its word ever again. The same has to be true for all sources of information, but they are way, way down on my trust list.

I didn't check Snopes! Didn't know that thanks.

There was PLENTY of similar information from just about anyone who's looked at the content on that site throughout their existence. It's pretty bad from my look. Still, as we've both noted, there is some decent accumulation of evidence in spite of the unfortunate language used insinuating an intent, when the evidence points to negligence and coverup.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

My sister-in-law is an internist at UPMC and got this link in a newsletter:

https://www.upmc.com/coronavirus/vaccin ... _Apr-20_e1

Posted this 2-3 days ago! There is another quite far along in the works also from BAT (British American Tobacco), believe it or not, that is grown in the Genetically modified tobacco plants!

Because of the Tobacco Mosaic Virus uses In Pharmaceutical Research?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Korea has had low levels of new cases and comparatively few mortalities for many, many weeks, as we've noted previously.

They got it under control well but can't quite eradicate the stubborn critter.

Would it be expected that other countries are likely to have the same issue?

P.S. Many weeks ago, Cpt. Beefheart noted that Korea schools were set to reopen in early April (I think he said the 8th). I wonder if that plan held.

This is the dance. Remember that post with the Hammer and the Dance? You isolate it, lower infection rates, test like crazy, then possibly once the health services are functioning effectively again, begin to scale up openings. Then you manage the outbreak with loads more testing, isolate and case track, periodically close smaller areas of outbreak, and the numbers just keep rising and falling on a much smaller curve until a vaccine comes around.

[MakeeLearn]

"TMV is of particular interest as an antigen carrier because its structure allows for it to be ingested by cells easily and able to display antigens on its surface.

It's possible that TMV is able to simulate antibody production due to the exposed repeated antigens on its surface, this mimics other viral coats that cause the human body view it as threatening.

Or the other possibility, TMV RNA stimulates the cell-mediated immunity cascade.

Another positive of using TMV as a vector for the vaccine in drugs is the fact that TMV cannot infect mammals nor does it have negative affects on host antibodies. TMV can be used several times as a booster for multistep vaccinations."

https://microbewiki.kenyon.edu/index.ph ... l_Research

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

My sister-in-law is an internist at UPMC and got this link in a newsletter:

https://www.upmc.com/coronavirus/vaccin ... _Apr-20_e1

Posted this 2-3 days ago! There is another quite far along in the works also from BAT (British American Tobacco), believe it or not, that is grown in the Genetically modified tobacco plants!

Because of the Tobacco Mosaic Virus uses In Pharmaceutical Research?

This is the article. Don't know if it's related to the mosaic virus, but that always wiped out my tomatoes when I lived in NC.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... us-vaccine

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


Thanks. If it isn't obvious, I am checking back in since Saturday AM and haven't gotten that far yet. If folks have since apologized or retracted, then please accept my apology for not having gotten caught up yet. Lots of activity here.

Yes, I did offer a hearty and ...well a hearty apology. The Chairman Mao thing is just a joke. I stole it from John Lennon. Che Guevara T-shirt, perhaps.

Everything I said about the practical difficulty of testing 330 million people is still true.

By ra way, I sat in a video teleconference with one of the Infectious Disease consultants from CHOC Children's. She had some insights on the initial testing problems in the US. All of the nasal and throat and fecal swab tests in routine use apply a methodology called "PCR" (Polymerase Chain Reaction). This is an enzyme that replicates nucleic acids sequences..so if you have lets say 1000 copies of Covid 19 RNA material in a sample the enzyme will "amplify" the signal to 100K or 1000K copies. Then you incubate the amplified signal with complementary sequences of nuclear material from the viral genome and link the target nucelotide to some colorimetric or fluorescent indicator and you have a test.

The viral genome was published in early January so many, many labs might have been able to do it quickly...but the CDC insisted on quality control and, in the US, the FDA has to license new medical testing. Anyway, the CDC develops a test very quickly and orders health departments and hospitals to send specimens to Atlanta. Then they get cold feet and decide their test has quality problems (still not disclosed but perhaps false negatives or worse false positives). They STOP all testing and rework their test but meanwhile thousands of specimens are piling up in Atlanta[X(] Even worse, they don't have the stones to admit it, but instead instruct state and local health departments to follow very strict inclusion criteria for testing....so all the doctors are getting pissed off. The first community transmission case in Calif. was sitting in a hospital with pneumonia characteristic of covid and the CDC refused to test for 4 days.

By ra way, the Chicoms also had testing problems. What did they do? They accepted reasonable clinical criteria and even Chest CT findings for inclusion. Of course, even after they knew it was a SARS-like Coronavirus they hid it front he WHO.

[Canoerebel]

MakeeLearn posted this link just above, but it's definitely worth posting again and reading: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/key-c ... li=BBnb7Kz

The big shift is great news - not only cases and mortality but associated need for critical equipment etc. Everything is effected positively.

The article does a good job of adding the needed caution at the end about "everybody maintaining countermeasures" to keep the projections on track.

[Cap Mandrake]

The other thing about PCR is it tells you there is viral nuclear material in the sample. It doesn't actually tell you the virus is "alive" or transmissible.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

"TMV is of particular interest as an antigen carrier because its structure allows for it to be ingested by cells easily and able to display antigens on its surface.

It's possible that TMV is able to simulate antibody production due to the exposed repeated antigens on its surface, this mimics other viral coats that cause the human body view it as threatening.

Or the other possibility, TMV RNA stimulates the cell-mediated immunity cascade.

Another positive of using TMV as a vector for the vaccine in drugs is the fact that TMV cannot infect mammals nor does it have negative affects on host antibodies. TMV can be used several times as a booster for multistep vaccinations."

https://microbewiki.kenyon.edu/index.ph ... l_Research

Thank you for that. I did not know that this was used to treat melanoma. I will research that some more . . .

[Canoerebel]

From that MSN article about revised projections (linked again: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/key-c ... li=BBnb7Kz):

"The April 5 update predicts the need for 140,823 total hospital beds and 29,210 ICU beds at the peak of the outbreak. Those numbers are down 121,269 and 10,517, respectively." [emphasis added]

Wow.