Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

5/7/45

TNNBT: This is a beautiful map. The lack of enemy TFs means I managed to stand down all search aircraft. In turn, DS reunited and there were no reactions today. Hooray!

So I now face an impossible choice - sale around with no search aircraft up in order to avoid reaction (and hoping this really works) and chancing an ambush of massive proprotions, or turning on search and knowing - just knowing - reactions will take place at the worst moment and in the worst circumstances.

Quite a dilemma, eh?

I have three options now: (1) turn around, steaming blindly NE towards the invasion beaches, trusting in sheer braun to make it relatively whole; (2) steam immediately for the coast of Indochina, looking for a weakpoint to land, hopefully isolating Erik's massive army in Thailand (and there's a real risk that any base I choose to invade will be reinforced by rail before I actually get there); or (3) proceed to invade Iriomote, giving Erik another problem to deal with, and then proceeding to invade lightly held Hainan Island.

Tough choices, really. Can I really risk taking on a still strong enemy fleet and massive air force almost blindly? Probably not.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've never set a carrier TF to react, that I can recall. They aren't set to react now. I've done everything I know to do to keep them from reacting.

Does that include a low Aggression TF leader?

[Canoerebel]

No. There usually aren't enough superb naval comannders with low aggression leaders to cover my carrier TFs. I don't want to have some TFs with low aggression and some with moderate, so I err on the side of choosing superb commanders with moderate aggression (50s or low 60s).

[Canoerebel]

5/7/45

TNNBT: Planning and thinking about tomorrow.

The primary invasions targets are still weakly defended. A successful landing at either or both would catch Erik's armies badly out of position.

I haven't given up on that plan yet, but I'm leaning against it. Reaction and the number of enemy aircraft makes things so risky. If Erik did manage to gut DS, every Allied ship and the holdings in NoPac would come into play. I'd spend the next month or six on the defensive,trying to regroup and to build.

If the Armada switches to the two tertiary targets (Hainan Island and Busuanga Island, just south of Manila), everyting remains in play. The Allies succeeded in totally unhinging Erik's defenses in SEAC. Moves on high-value Manila proceed. And from Hainan Island, this vast Allied army and navy can coordinate with the huge Allied SEAC armies plus RN Death Star (after it handles Singapore) to deal with Indochina and China.

That's the better plan, though the original is the BEST plan, can I somehow assure it works.

[Canoerebel]

5/7/45

SEAC: This theater has all the appearances of France in August '44...which means I have to watch for Erik turning and striking back. The main possibility right now would be if he used Singers as a major bomber/fighter base to lash out at my shipping.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've never set a carrier TF to react, that I can recall. They aren't set to react now. I've done everything I know to do to keep them from reacting.

Does that include a low Aggression TF leader?

That's a very tough balance to achieve with carrier TF admirals.

Most of the ones with high air skills also have relatively high aggressiveness.

There is only a handful of milquetosat carrier admirals.

[Canoerebel]

No turn from Erik today, thus far, but I received a horrifying email from somebody named Alvarez in Bolivia:

You should read this message through! If don’t pay attention to notification, the consequences will be irreversible.
I got a video of you masturbating..
Appeal to the police, it’ll be too late!!!
I dwell abroad, a lot of time will pass before they detect me!
Anyway I will manage to damage ur reputation.
I stole the contacts of your friends and relatives and accessed your social networks.
I am no gonna explain u how this happened, but I’m gonna counsel u to update your antivirus and avoid clicking on pornsites!
U have 24 hours since after opening this message (I will receive a notification ) to buy my silence.
U should transfer 37 LTC to La1324gVv8DRr7HrCuTG21iEkTKNHH1Kuw wallet during twenty four hours and be 100% sure I will remove all the dirt on u!
If you don’t pay attention to this notification, I will send all the damaging information to your buddies and relatives and publish it in social networks.
I doubt that anyone would be happy to deal with you.
You can beseech, but it won’t help. U have twenty four hours!
Don’t send anything to this email address, it is used to deliver messages, I’m not going to check it.
I apologize for my English, I’m not a native speaker!

[BBfanboy]

An apology at the end - what a gentleman! [:D]
Ask him how much he asked Jeff Bezos to pay!

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

No turn from Erik today, thus far, but I received a horrifying email from somebody named Alvarez in Bolivia:

You should read this message through! If don’t pay attention to notification, the consequences will be irreversible.
I got a video of you masturbating..
Appeal to the police, it’ll be too late!!!
I dwell abroad, a lot of time will pass before they detect me!
Anyway I will manage to damage ur reputation.
I stole the contacts of your friends and relatives and accessed your social networks.
I am no gonna explain u how this happened, but I’m gonna counsel u to update your antivirus and avoid clicking on pornsites!
U have 24 hours since after opening this message (I will receive a notification ) to buy my silence.
U should send me the targets of your invasion forces during twenty four hours and be 100% sure I will remove all the dirt on u!
If you don’t pay attention to this notification, I will send all the damaging information to your buddies and relatives and publish it in social networks.
I doubt that anyone would be happy to deal with you.
You can beseech, but it won’t help. U have twenty four hours!
Don’t send anything to this email address, it is used to deliver messages, I’m not going to check it.
I apologize for my English, I’m not a native speaker!

[kailii]

Ah, so Erik finally made his move.

And since we're talking psychological Warfare already, and given the fact that i don't even own this version of the game (no AI control for minor theaters turned me off), and since i know nothing about your opponent and well knowing that i haven't posted here for many years, you should not even be considering my advice to think out of the box.

Erik got you here CR. His delays are making you insecure, triple checking on everything you thought covered already.

And if you asked me - which you should not as already explained - i would recommend anything to throw him off.
Like, say, detaching a CVE group from DS 2 squares away and making this one the only (but needed damnit!) scout plane group. Or give a TF bombardment orders on a fake target. Such things happen once every 3000 clicks...

But whatever you do, in my honest opinion, NOW is the time to think outside the box.

Back to lurking mode for me. And thanks a ton for this exceptional AAR!

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for reading the AAR and sharing your thoughts.

[Canoerebel]

5/8/45

TNNBT: The invasion of Iriomote goes smoothly, a few enemy air attacks are handled easily, and otherwise the day is a quiet one.

Now I have a decision to make. A big and tough one. There are three options:

1. Move north again, suddenly, boldly, towards the primary targets. If I chose this, all unloading at Irimote will halt (that's fine) and all ships will move NE. I'll use nav search from Kume during the turn, because DS will be far enough away from Kyushu that the chances of reaction having really bad impact are pretty small. I like this idea, I'm leaning towards it, but it'll mean some very scary days once tomorrow is over.

2. Allow one more day of unloading at Iriomote; then DS & The Herd move towards Hainan Island. If, during that short trip, the enemy garrisons depart Pakhoi or Kwangchoan on the mainland, I'll land my full army there.

3. Toy with Erik a bit by sending DS forward, then back, playing along the periphery of his nav attack range, hoping to seriously deplete his massive air force. I don't like this idea and it's not likely to be chosen.

[Canoerebel]

For good or ill, I have elected to proceed to the primary beaches.

I hesitated briefly after making the decision and issuing the orders. Then, by re-arranging aircraft on several carriers (sending some strike aircraft back to NoPac), I was able to bring in two fresh 36-count F4U1-D squadrons. That helped calmed the yips, and I eventually clicked "Send."

I think tomorrow should go okay. The days thereafter will be most unnerving. Erik will use everything. HIs air power is the most daunting, but I fear him throwing all his ships, including riff-raff and merchantmen, into my armada, scattering ships and causing some to reset to their HQ port. If that happens, things could spin out of control and I will regret not choosing a safer course of action.

Early in the turn, I issued orders for a move to the China coast near Amoy. There is a small base lightly garrisoned. A big BB TF was going to bombard preparatory to an unprepped landing. That might've worked, but it never felt right. The only thing that did feel right was forcing the issue.

[Bearcat2]

“You have chosen… wisely.”


It didn't make any sense to me to land on those 2 islands and then take away any covering force letting the enemy bombard them with impunity.

Where is the Chinese Army and how strong is it?
How much of a Navy does he have?

[Canoerebel]

The Chinese army is in the mountains on the Burma border, facing a tough enemy army that's been dug in for two or three years. The Chinese can't get through that line but they are holding a large Japanese force static. I can live with that.

The Japanese navy is hurting but it's large enough to inflict hurt - not in a one-to-one clash with the powerful Allied navy, but if able to scatter Allied TFs or pick off cripples or cause mayhem by combining with subs and riff-raff. Erik has a handful of CAs left, perhaps eight BBs. I think his corps of CL, DD and SS are thin. He does have enough carriers to host around 1200 to 1600 aircraft. They can't go against DS one on one but can provide a mighty assist to LBA. Their most lethal contribution would be to provoke reaction and then participate in an attack in detail.

[Canoerebel]

Iriomote and Kume jima would've been fine during the week or so that DS was away. Hainan Island isn't far, if a crisis developed. And one of the objectives in taking those islands was to give Erik something to focus on. I don't think there's any risk of those two capitulating, given the strength of the garrisons. They also were to serve as "beachheads" for when the Allies returned, whether that be just DS or DS and a Herd.

[Bif1961]

What will transferring 37 Lt. Colonels do?

[Canoerebel]

5/9/45

TNNBT: Today was a perfect day. It wasn't a great day - a great day would connote a tremendous victory. It was perfect because all proceedings in the East China Sea went superbly. DS & The Herd steamed far (five hexes!) without incident. I think (think) that the armada stole a march on Erik, catching him preparing to move elsewhere.

Erik has to throw every single thing at the armada tomorrow if he hopes to halt the invasion. He could prevail, but I feel like the Allies got the angle and will win the race to the beach.

[adarbrauner]

I'm not so sure you can sail up into the Yangtze with the biggest ships (I think I've never tried, not sure). If it makes exception (as it should in realistic terms) to the other navigable rivers, so yes.

[Canoerebel]

TFs with BBs and with CVs accepted orders to steam up the river a few hexes to Tungchow, so I think it'll work. If not those, hopefully at least my amphibious TFs (APAs would be the largest vessels) and escorting DDs could make the journey.

If worst came to worse - if my ignore and the evil vagaries of the game again showed me I was in error - then the default primary target is Chefoo. For that target I have a large army fully prepped. The enemy garrison is small.