Illinois Yankee in the Showa Emperor's Court (Q-Ball v Canoe)

[Q-Ball]

Thanks for the comments, I will reply, but first a quick Combat Update:

July 10-12, 1942:

Diego Garcia Falls: Base fell easily this time; should have brought enough troops in the first place. Using KB hurt because he knows where it is, but that's the price of victory here.

This island is important, because it screens the Bay of Bengal. I also cannot allow an Allied base close to the map edge, or as a staging area. It's important to eliminate all Allied bases in the Indian Ocean.

One strange thing: The defenders were the 99th Indian Bde. This is a unit that begins the game close to full-strength on Ceylon. Dan must have paid the PPs to move it to Diego Garcia. (I'm sure there is a fragment of it somewhere). I was wondering where those guys were, because I had destroyed the other 2 at-start Indian Bdes on Ceylon (the 98th and 100th).

What appeared to be a supply convoy was sunk during the invasion; 2 xAKs and an AM escort. Dan probably forgot about them, and they showed up at the wrong time.

Menado: Also fell; last Dutch garrison to surrender, other than a couple starving units lurking in the jungle.

Between those 2, I am up to 11,500 VPs for Ground troops now, but the only gimmies now are the guys on Mindanao, and they aren't worth a whole lot.

Air Wars Over India: This has been strange. Dan has kept a CAP over Bombay for 4 days, and 4 days in a row I have swept it for great results. The tally so far is 35 to 1 in losses. He withdrew the P-40s and P-38s, so I am mostly shooting down Mohawks, P-39s, and Hurris. The CAP is set to 10,000 Ft, so my guys get a bounce, and THEN we dogfight at 10K, which of course is great for my OSCAR and TOJO pilots. The OSCARS have done particularly well. Why is he keeping them out there?

Meanwhile, i am not even defending Poona, so sweeping P-38s are hitting air, and bombers ARE getting 2-3 of my planes a turn on the ground. Base damage is minimal, and quickly repaired. He is also bombing my ground troops, which I am not yet contesting; I am content to shoot down Allied fighters first.

Very strange air war.

Sub Notes: I got an xAK off Socotra; I have had subs out there for awhile, looking for ships transiting the map corner, but that's the first time I have seen ANYTHING. Strange.

Also sank an xAK off Suva, and another off Australia. We sank a Dutch Sub in port in Mangalore; she probably took a bomb hit and was crippled, we finished her off. Dan has lost 2-4 subs around Ceylon now.

In an interesting intel tidbit, I-4 sighted a large convoy of ships that included BB COLORADO off US west coast. The escort sank I-4.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: crsutton
Personally, I don't think all of OZ can be taken vs a good Allied player as well. However, as more knowledge is gained perhaps Japanese players will work out a system for it.

I think it's possible, moreso than India. First, the triggered reinforcements are much less, and none of them actually appear in Australia.

In order to do it, you need to move quickly in the SRA and elsewhere, but you can easily, in Scen 2, free up 8-10 divisions by the end of February, if you are moving quickly.

By March 1, the RAAF is nothing, and the Australians have several Militia Divisions, but these melt away quick against oppossition.

The key is isolating Australia, which means early moves against Perth and Brisbane, with landings on Tasmania early to set-up BETTY bases. Those moves should interdict all the ports, and allow time to set-up the kill.

I think the Allies would be forced to commit CVs to counter, to run convoys into Southern Australia.

[TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: crsutton
Personally, I don't think all of OZ can be taken vs a good Allied player as well. However, as more knowledge is gained perhaps Japanese players will work out a system for it.

I think it's possible, moreso than India. First, the triggered reinforcements are much less, and none of them actually appear in Australia.

In order to do it, you need to move quickly in the SRA and elsewhere, but you can easily, in Scen 2, free up 8-10 divisions by the end of February, if you are moving quickly.

By March 1, the RAAF is nothing, and the Australians have several Militia Divisions, but these melt away quick against oppossition.

The key is isolating Australia, which means early moves against Perth and Brisbane, with landings on Tasmania early to set-up BETTY bases. Those moves should interdict all the ports, and allow time to set-up the kill.

I think the Allies would be forced to commit CVs to counter, to run convoys into Southern Australia.

Sounds like you've got your next AAR ready to go! [:D]

[Q-Ball]

Combat Report, July 13-16, 1942:

Air Wars: Losses have equalized recently, the last couple days; I need to vary altitudes again. Equal losses is fine from a long-term perspective, as we are shooting down P-38s and Hurris, but short-term, will not help auto victory.

Bombay: Attached is the first screenshot on Bombay:

[Alfred]

IIRC, (a) some of the Bombay defenders are scheduled to be auto withdrawn later in the year and (b) the Indian divisions are very low quality (both in experience and morale) - it will take them quite some time to be come category 1 if you refrain from bombarding them.

You certainly do not need to maintain so many Japanese divisions just to retain your foothold. Remember the intention is to (a) launch no attacks whatsoever, rather encourage the Allies to bleed themselves by launching attacks against you and (b) tie up more Allied AV than Japanese AV, in the process greatly reducing Allied counterattack options.

Alfred

[ny59giants]

So is two divisions enough for right now until you can get a large brigade in there and have a high enough prep level to be able to withstand an assault?? At least you have halted production of any more supplies at Bombay. [;)]

[John 3rd]

Could always begin to dig-in at a place of YOUR choosing...

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Could always begin to dig-in at a place of YOUR choosing...

This, and Michael's comment is the plan. I plan to leave 3 divisions in the Bombay hex. First, I am sending a few units to enter from all locations, to turn the hexside RED, and truly cut it off. THEN, I will leave only 3 divisions, and take the other 6 Divisions I have down there and move elsewhere.

Eventually, I need to leave India, and probably in a hurry. I don't plan to make a stand anywhere, other than Calcutta-Grad. I plan to leave a couple divisions there (pulling fragments of course!), because the Allies have to take it back. It's worth too many points. I might make a stand in Madras the same way, Allies need it for reinforcements. Ceylon is a deathtrap, I will only contest via air.

July 17-23, 1942:

2nd Page!: Alot of AARs going, I leave this alone for 48 hours, and I drop to Page 2!

Baker?: An Allied TF suddenly appears off Baker Island. I didn't see them coming until 5 hexes away. What is this?

If the direction was NE, I might think it's a stray, but the direction is right at Baker. Dan has been flying over Baker every single day for two months, so this isn't a huge surprise. He is very well aware of the size of the garrison, so if he is invading, he is no doubt bringing plenty to finish the job. No sense resisting.

With all the overflights (including F-4s), I occupied HOWLAND as another seaplane base about a month ago. I wonder if it's a target as well.

Baker is a pretty easy and obvious target. It's useful as a seaplane base and aircraft ferry point, but that's it; it can't be used offensively. No big loss. I will need to evaluate to determine if this is part of a wider move into the Gilberts, but I would be surprised (and delighted) if he moved on Tarawa this early.

I set all the air transports I had local to pick-up the troops there. I probably won't get them all out, but I will save the units, and minimize losses.

I don't have any way to resist the invasion at present. The nearest warships are a cruiser squadron, but I can't send them in without knowing if there are USN CVs present. Baker is too far from Tabiteua for other than NavB with un-escorted BETTIES, which isn't a very good idea if he has any kind of aircover.

I have moved a small Betty unit though to do RECON, and see what ships are out there. I am particularly anxious to know if USN CVs are present; if I had to guess, I guess that they ARE. But we'll see.

[JohnDillworth]

Eventually, I need to leave India, and probably in a hurry.

Thats alot of troops and it is July 42. Do these divisions go to defensive positions, mobile reserve, or is there another offensive in the offing?

[Q-Ball]

July 24-25, 1942:

Troops and Plans: Good question Mr. Dillworth. I am keeping a large force in India at-present to keep the pressure on, but I have to be wary of getting cut-off starting in 9/42, which is when the Allies get some paras, and can attempt a landing on the SE coast of India.

I plan to push forward until August/September, then start to withdraw troops for elsewhere. I am already prepping units for an invasion in the Pacific, where I hope to draw out some USN Seapower.

The attempt to win auto-victory in India has failed, but the success is that I do not anticipate any threats to the SRA from India, without signifcant US help. In fact, I bet Dan is planning a counteroffensive anywhere but directly at me in India. He might not even attempt to land behind me in India, but keep me occupied there to attain freedom of action elsewhere.

I can't leave the Pacific empty, so I am moving troops around at the moment. I bought out all the elements of 2nd Tank Div from Manchuria, and will build that division in India, forming a little Tank Army with the Gds Tank Div. But I am also pulling out the 21st Infantry Division, for service elsewhere.

Baker Falls: As expected, Baker falls. Pulling the garrison was the right call, as Dan landed with 3 Regts, a Tank unit, and engineers. That's alot! Most of my guys got a lift off the island. The attackers probably exceed stacking limits.

Forces included at least 1 BB (MISSISSIPPI), plus some sort of aircover that intercepted my air transports. No CV bombers though. Hard to tell if that was the USN CVs, or if it was just LONG ISLAND with some Wildcats loaded. I have to operate as if USN CVs are in that area for now. He could have attempted this landing without full CV support, because via last sighting, he knows KB could not have interfered.

JULY 27 EDIT: We got a partial answer on Baker; looks like just CVE aircover, see map below.

ODDS and ENDS: Our Subs sank 3 xAKs off India, plus a DE.

We finally caught up to the nomadic 20th Indian Division near Madras, and nailed it; over 200 squads destroyed. The unit must be out of supplies to collapse that bad vs. only 150 AV. I am moving 2 tank units around to finish the job.

[Q-Ball]

July 28-August 5, 1942:

I had snapped off a bunch of turns, not a ton is happening that is imminent, though I have a few things brewing....

Bombay: Dan re-established rail connection with Bombay, so I am moving again to cut that off, and turn that hexside RED. Mistake on my part. The rest of the hexsides are RED, and I need to keep them that way, because....

....I am leaving on 3 Divisions at Bombay, and moving everyone else East to keep the pressure up, toward Jalagon. I have no chance of forcing Bombay to surrender, and probably no chance ever, but I can at least pin a larger number of Allied troops, since attacking out of the hex is likely to fail.

INDIA: I have a couple other operations planned that don't involve triggering 6 divisions of reinforcements for the Allies.

So I am not going for it all in India. It is nearly impossible to cut-off India from the world, and thus nearly impossible to conquer. Too late I realized that taking SOCOTRA would have cut off all but reinforcement from ADEN, but I didn't realize that until recently, at which point it's too late. So major error on my part. It is also STILL unclear if taking it triggers reinforcement; I assume it does since it is a land hex on that side of the line, but maybe a Dev can clarify.

Even so, a conquest of Bombay is nearly impossible, so you can't kick the Allies out completely; they would maintain a bridgehead. There aren't enough points in India to win autovictory without destroying the entire Indian Army, which you can't do if they choose to barricade in Bombay/Karachi.

I would like to see someone else learn from my mistakes and try this against a good opponent. I don't regret taking CEYLON at all, since that destroyed 2 good divisions, but I do regret not taking SOCOTRA, and not moving earlier up the coast.

Oh well.......

Air Wars: Dan has gotten the better of me for a couple turns; I withdrew all my fighters to rest, and came back for sweeps over Bombay. We are still well over 1-1, so we'll keep it up.

ZEROS are worthless sweeping though. TOJOS are good, but I have also had good luck with the OSCAR. Not sure why it's better than the ZERO, but it is.

Production Update: We are in more than good shape production-wise, I almost wonder if I should really crank Naval production. I think I will.

We have almost 10 Mil. RESOURCES in the Home Islands (excl. Hokkaido). That is an enormous pile, I almost can't store more. We are shutting down convoys from China/Korea, which are now waiting for Resources. I was probably too aggressive pulling out Resources from China.

OIL is at 1 year's supply
FUEL is almost 4 Mil, about 300 days supply, excluding Naval usage

For the first time, I have a Tanker TF in the SRA waiting for FUEL or OIL to pickup. All the production centers are under 20K each for OIL or FUEL, except for Palembang, which is empty on OIL, and has 60K FUEL. So, we are definitely getting it to Japan.

HEAVY INDUSTRY was struggling to accumulate until I took India; now, I am running approx. 50K monthly surplus, thanks to the 450 HI I captured around Calcutta. I am not sure where the fuel is coming from other than LEDO, it must be pulling over the border from Burma and Magwe.

I have over 1200 trained PILOTS in the Reserve Pool at this point. I figure to need 5000 or so once I get Kamis; I plan to rain on Dan once that happens.

[TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum]

Even though you've failed to seize all of India, you've done something nearly as good.

By going after India, you've made Allied naval power practically impotent in that theater of operations. No amount of ships is really going to help him dislodge you, it's going to take ground forces, lots of ground forces (speaking of Northern India and Burma here).

Canoe will have a long and hard fight if he wants to take that territory back. And if he doesn't, then you've isolated the possible routes he can take to try and take the war to you.

You may not have achieved an auto-victory, but you've put yourself in a position to take the war well into '45 and possibly into '46 if you play smart and mount an effective defense.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

... There aren't enough points in India to win autovictory without destroying the entire Indian Army, which you can't do if they choose to barricade in Bombay/Karachi...

I simply do not understand this statement.

Firstly, every base in India has at least a 5:1 multiplier effect, some which are already under Japanese control have a 50:1 multiplier. It is simply not feasible that at this stage of the game, every Allied base captured in India had already been developed to its maximum airfield and port capacities. Accordingly there is potentially huge VP gains to be achieved merely by developing bases to their SPS.

Secondly, it is not going to be an easy task for the Allies to recapture ground in India. The auto victory conditions are not just restricted to 1943. Assuming that the Allies do not make any significant VP gains in 1943, then Q-Ball's already achieved 3.6:1 ratio will more than suffice to ensure an auto victory on 1 January 1944. And this is without tacking into account the preceding paragraph.

Thirdly, once you gain air supremacy over Bombay (and ultimately Karchi) where you have identified the presence of considerable numbers of Allied LCUs and AV, you can achieve considerable VPs by merely ground attacking the pinned Allied units.

If you fall into a mindset that you have already failed, then that will impact subconsciously on your play and become a self fulfilling prophecy.

I see no reason why an auto victory will not ensue in approximately 6 months time if Japan maintains the initiative, maintains offensive pressure on the Allies (there are still important Allied bases in India awaiting capture without triggering Allied reinforcements) and fully develops its infrastucture, taking due account of the VP multiplier effect.

Japan has already identified the presence in India of Australian units. Those units have helped the Allies to stabilise the front. Without the presence of these foreign units, it is most unlikely that the indigenous Indian Command units would suffice to prevent Japan from conquering the whole of India. The indigenous Indian Allied units are simply too weak in terms of experience/morale and TOE strength to stop Japan. Remember Japan can focus on a single schwerpunkt whereas the Allied defence has to be spread about to cover numerous cities. This means that ultimately, the Allies can only stop a determined and focussed Japanese offensive in India by bringing in forces from elsewhere. The price the Allies will pay for stabilising the situation in India is a considerable reduction of Allied offensive capabilities elsewhere.

Alfred

[cookie monster]

The Indians have a lot of flak units to use attacking his bases would be costly.

As standard there are Australian units in India. I dont know if Canoe has transferred some more from OZ.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: cookie monster

...As standard there are Australian units in India. I dont know if Canoe has transferred some more from OZ.

That is not correct. In scenario 1 (AFAIK no change made to Allied OOB in scenario 2) there is only a single Australian support unit present in India (at Karachi) as at 7 December 1941. In post #321, Q-Ball identified the 25th Aust Bde as being present in India. That unit does not start in India. Its presence can only be accounted for by being brought in from elsewhere. As the 25th brigade initially enters the game at Aden, it is clear that at least one brigade, and in all probability its two sister brigades plus support units which all enter at Aden in close proximity, have been moved to India. If the Allies have moved at least one unit into India, what are the odds that others haven't been similarly sent to India.

Alfred

[cookie monster]

Well if they enter at Aden they were destined for India, where else is the logical place for them to go.

It's not the same as transferring an OZ unit from Australia itself.

[JohnDillworth]

I believe that the 1st Australian corps enters at Aden. This is 2 crack divisions plus support units. These come in pretty early in 42 I think and are the only decent units the Allies get in the beginning of the war. The choice is where to send them. Some players send them to India or Ceylon, I've sent them to the DEI (and lost them)and some players send them to Australian to shore up the defense there and perhaps give some offensive punch in the SW Pacific or New Guinea. No matter what you do they have to pass India. When they show up the Allied player has needs everywhere on the map so they often get split up

[witpqs]

I think they enter at Aden because they were in the middle east.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I think they enter at Aden because they were in the middle east.

Yep,(In Palestine & Syria) It would be silly to ship them past the German/Italian held Sicily airfields to ship them around to Cape Town.

[JohnDillworth]

I think they enter at Aden because they were in the middle east.

If I recall Churchill was not at all pleased at the Australians leaving