Aboard the Red Castle - Erkki(J) vs. Smeulders(A) - no lookin'!

[Erkki]

April 10th


Kido Butai: sights nothing as does CS Chitose some 120nm ahead... Zeros fail to down any of the today's Catalinas. KB keeps sailing East...

Burma: 84th Independent Fighter Chutai is the first unit to receive the brand new fighter Ki-44-IIa. Some of the rookie pilots are kicked out of this 12-plane squad and more experienced pilots get assigned in.

Home Islands: BB Yamato arrives! However I have nothing for her to do so she'll just sit at anchor near Hiroshima's Kure Yards.

Submarines: Second submarine in 2 days, its now I-26's turn to get hammered in a depth charge attack by a duo of mine layers near Los Angeles(deep water hex though) - damage is only moderate but its heading back to Yokohama. Being a Japanese vessel, it might not make it.


Other than that, still very quiet. Morale is getting low in the HQ as nothing happens and the Allies are playing time and not the game they are assured to win regardless of lost battles and units...

[Capt. Harlock]

Home Islands: BB Yamato arrives! However I have nothing for her to do so she'll just sit at anchor near Hiroshima's Kure Yards.

[ ... ]

Other than that, still very quiet. Morale is getting low in the HQ as nothing happens and the Allies are playing time and not the game they are assured to win regardless of lost battles and units...

A shore bombardment of Seattle might provoke a response. [:D]

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Erkki

KB will now keep sailing East in hopes of catching some slower convoys on route from San Francisco/LA/Hawaii to Palmyra, Baker, Fiji/Pago Pago and Australia/NZ, but I'm not holding my breath. Quite a lot of fuel burned to kill a Catalina.

Other than that, nothing...

I think you have to go even farther southeast than that to get a whiff of any TF's. We're talking Tahiti here. It won't be until Bart is positive you won't be interdicting the most direct routes from Hawaii to the Southeast Pacific that he'll use those routes. I think he also relies on large TF's, so that means there is less chance of interdicting them.

I still think the key (against Bart) is establishing bases deep enough into his LOC that you can spot and interdict his movements. That is the only way to force his hand. If you stick to a historical perimeter you simply are too far away to make an impact. We both know he's patient, extremely patient to the point he's more than willing to spend a few extra weeks sailing to get to his destination. He simply will not put forces at risk unnecessarily, and right now there is absolutely nothing he HAS to do that requires him to stick his neck out. He'll just redirect his forces to move away from KB, wait for you to retire then resume his movements once again. Time is on his side and he will use it to the fullest.

I strongly urge you to either accept this and dig in like crazy and prepare to have zero action until Oct/Nov when you can oppose his moves against you, or take the initiative yourself and force him to play the game. I empathize with you completely, but a different pace to the game sadly rests with you. If you sit back and let him go about his business unmolested, as I did, then 1942 will crawl along like an ice age for you.

Respectfully.

[Richard III]

Erkki my friend, you are a victim of your own success[;)].

However your in distinguished company since the Combined Fleet Planning Staff had the same problem by early `42. It was becoming clear the Allies " defensive plans" were a house of cards, propped up by strategic and operational planning that could best be described as fantasy, non working weapon systems ( US Torps ), antiquated air power ( Brit & Dutch AC ) and generally poor troop leadership and performance.

It was also clear that the US Pacific Fleet, specifically the CV`s, had no intention of coming out to fight and be sunk.

So.... knowing the window of opportunity would close by mid `43 ( if not much sooner ), the bright lads at CFPS, came up with four operational plans that had some real virtues.( if the Army, which distrusted the Navy intensely, had supported those, that is)

IMO, faced with very limited Army support, Isoroku Yamamoto picked the best of them, irregardless of the historic outcome, however I doubt that one will work in your game.
So... not faced with that Army problem, I think you need to give a keen look at the other three, right now, and... get ...it...moving...and stop cruising around the Central Pacific hoping he will come out to be sunk.

As The Very Wise Lemon suggested, you need to force him to respond to your initiatives where you are strong at best, and upset his planning at worst, and soon.

With great Respect....
R. III

[Erkki]

Hello everyone, good to have some replies here...

Harlock:

A shore bombardment of Seattle might provoke a response.

Yeah or KB air attack at Sydney... [:D]

SqzMyLemon:

I think you have to go even farther southeast than that to get a whiff of any TF's. We're talking Tahiti here. It won't be until Bart is positive you won't be interdicting the most direct routes from Hawaii to the Southeast Pacific that he'll use those routes. I think he also relies on large TF's, so that means there is less chance of interdicting them.

I still think the key (against Bart) is establishing bases deep enough into his LOC that you can spot and interdict his movements. That is the only way to force his hand. If you stick to a historical perimeter you simply are too far away to make an impact. We both know he's patient, extremely patient to the point he's more than willing to spend a few extra weeks sailing to get to his destination. He simply will not put forces at risk unnecessarily, and right now there is absolutely nothing he HAS to do that requires him to stick his neck out. He'll just redirect his forces to move away from KB, wait for you to retire then resume his movements once again. Time is on his side and he will use it to the fullest.

I strongly urge you to either accept this and dig in like crazy and prepare to have zero action until Oct/Nov when you can oppose his moves against you, or take the initiative yourself and force him to play the game. I empathize with you completely, but a different pace to the game sadly rests with you. If you sit back and let him go about his business unmolested, as I did, then 1942 will crawl along like an ice age for you.

Yes, I fully agree. Bart is a very thorough player. This... "raid" however is only half about killing Allied shipping(which, as it looks, its not going to do). The other part is about showing him once again, I think its the 6th time, that I'm ready to commit KB far into harms way split up - if hes done his homework he should be aware that at least CV Kaga simply cannot be part of the fleet hes looking at. In the end it might not worth it and I'm burning a lot of fuel for nothing here, but it just might pay off. He knows I have not combined the KB yet, even once, and have operated it down to CV/CVL pairs even as direct invasion support well within the range of Allied LBA and night surface raids(he even tried to intercept the half-KB near Makassar, but that cruiser force ran into mine and got annihilated).

Richard:

Erkki my friend, you are a victim of your own success.

However your in distinguished company since the Combined Fleet Planning Staff had the same problem by early `42. It was becoming clear the Allies " defensive plans" were a house of cards, propped up by strategic and operational planning that could best be described as fantasy, non working weapon systems ( US Torps ), antiquated air power ( Brit & Dutch AC ) and generally poor troop leadership and performance.

It was also clear that the US Pacific Fleet, specifically the CV`s, had no intention of coming out to fight and be sunk.

So.... knowing the window of opportunity would close by mid `43 ( if not much sooner ), the bright lads at CFPS, came up with four operational plans that had some real virtues.( if the Army, which distrusted the Navy intensely, had supported those, that is)

IMO, faced with very limited Army support, Isoroku Yamamoto picked the best of them, irregardless of the historic outcome, however I doubt that one will work in your game.
So... not faced with that Army problem, I think you need to give a keen look at the other three, right now, and... get ...it...moving...and stop cruising around the Central Pacific hoping he will come out to be sunk.

As The Very Wise Lemon suggested, you need to force him to respond to your initiatives where you are strong at best, and upset his planning at worst, and soon.

To answer both you and SqzMyLemon... I'd like to not sit down and wait. That leaves too many places to defend, and I'd like to do something about it.

Going through the map counter-clockwise:

Burma - he already has at least twice the unrestricted AV I have available. I have no idea why he retreated when he could have kept me at Rangoon. Next turn I'll have PPs to buy out a Manchu division which will get moved to Rangoon or Magwe - prepping for Magwe already. Next 3 or 4 divs will also go there... I dont see a way I could get Ceylon or attack into India - simply not enough units and too much open ground to get troops bombed.

DEI: still some mopping up to be done, including Kendari(not garrisoned) and Ambon(not reinforced).

Fiji/Baker/Line Islands etc.: I dont think I can get any further here. I could snatch an island or 2 for recce/nav search bases but what are they worth? He doesnt have to invade them and for nav search they'd be very leaky. He doesnt need to advance through South Pacific, so why would he?

Wake: is probably already mined, reinforced and fortified. I dont think I can get it, and while its threatening the Tokyo-Truk LOC the convoy traffic is now slowly moving from HI to Truk/Solomons to DEI-Truk/Solomons... And having Wake hopefully makes him consider about attacking via CENPAC - and I'd love to have a carrier battle when the Allies have already lost Yorktown and KB is intact. If he comes only once he has first Essexes, I'll have had time to fortify Marcus, Marshalls and Marianas for over a year. Marcus already has 150 AV and forts 3.

NOPAC: fortifying Kuriles(but nothing excessive!) - no plans to invade Aleutians. Again, I'd love to see an early try to get Paramushiro and Onnekotan - I have lots of "useless" assets such as BBs and training air units here that have cost me 0 PPs... Paramushiro alone has 250 AV behind forts 3, with the CD fortress unit, some aircraft, mines and a BBTF. I have netties within torpedo range. Let 'em come.

Theres one place missing in the above list. I'm planning to go there just to deny Bart of the most obvious and easiest attack route to Japan's vitals. And hopefully to provoke some resistance too...

[Erkki]

Also, now that Yamato was freed I have quite a lot of shipyard points. Now, I have

Taiho accelerated
All Unruys accelerated(none building yet though)
2 CLs and a DD accelerated
All CVEs except Chuyo accelerated(Churyo and CV Hiyo have same arrival date)
One KD7 and all RO submarines halted

And I'm gaining some 100 points/turn extra now

Once first 2 Unruys start building and need 3x points I'll stop accelerating the CLs - not enough for 240 points but Hiyo is completed shortly after and will provide the extra capacity. Naval production wise, ts now looking very good...

[Erkki]

April 11th


Kido Butai: I expected Bart to move everything away from Kido Butai's path.... But KB finds 3 flush-decker Clemson or Wickes AVDs and the 6 D3As assigned to the job hit 2 of them, one bomb each. Neither probably went down but they're heavily damaged, on fire, and far from land. Some shipping is fleeing Pearl to NE but submarines failed to make contact, only I-6 got close enough to be attacked by a destroyer... KB will now turn to SE to sweep behind Line Islands - its very possible we'll catch something bigger tomorrow.

DEI: Japanese troops advance and will reach Soerebaja tomorrow.

[koniu]

ORIGINAL: Erkki

April 11th

Are you not in May?

[Erkki]

Ooooo-oops! [:D]

[Erkki]

May 12th

A... Weird day.


Kido Butai: Sights nothing but the allied air patrols miss it completely. There are some Allied submarines in the area, but if they keep their courses they will miss the KB, which keeps heading SE. No sign of the yesterday's AVDs, some might have sunk.

Almost everywhere else: Nothing!

Submarines: I-165 attacks an Allied surface combat squadron near Perth twice. It sights 3 different destroyers and scores a hit on a ship that is identified as Clemson class DD Barker. Barker seems to have been repaired since CAs Chokai and Ashigara put some holes on it 2 months back, but she surely sunk now! Somehow in this game the IJN subs have been able to do some real damage to Allied combat ships while at the same time I can only keep guessing where their merchantmen sail...

SigInt: Allies admit to have lost... The CL Durban! The same ship that was confirmed to be still operational just less than a week ago. Even more surprisingly, the sinking hex is MELBOURNE and date today! Repair accident? Succumbed to bomb hit damage after all(hit by G3M2s at Soerebaja, Java, during the operation to sink BB Royal Sovereign) before it was put to dry dock? Why wasnt Perth's naval yard used - not safe enough? Now I'm suddenly not sure at all that there isnt FOW in the loss admittance/confirming system... I'll consider the Durban to be afloat until I either see her in action again or my opponent confirms her to be down.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Erkki

SigInt: Allies admit to have lost...

Maybe others can chime in here ... my experience is that this phrase is pretty reliable in the Op's report. I haven't noticed any FOW on this ... has anyone?

[obvert]

That phrase seems to mean the ship has definitely sunk. I've been getting lots of incorrect reports for confirmed sinkings about when, where and how the ship was sunk however. So maybe it was sunk shortly after the first attack and the other report was false?

[Erkki]

May 13th


Another silent day...

Kido Butai: Remains hidden, but Catalinas finally find the replenishment task force. Its now between Baker and Palmyra, while KB is East of Canton(SEE of Palmyra).

SigInt: Japanese agents from San Francisco report... the harbor to be empty! Not one PT boat or ferry left. Looks like Bart is using San Jose and Los Angeles as his only West Coast convoy hubs.


obvert: Thats what I thought, but the hex is Melbourne. I'm nearly sure its still afloat, she made that far without visiting Perth(my subs are monitoring traffic, I have multiple E14Ys there too) so how could she be sunk? I did hear some sinking sounds after the night naval movement phase(2 sounds almost simultaneously actually, like, on of each other) but I'm pretty sure it were those 2 AVDs from KB attack 2 days ago that sunk.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Erkki

May 13th


Another silent day...

Kido Butai: Remains hidden, but Catalinas finally find the replenishment task force. Its now between Baker and Palmyra, while KB is East of Canton(SEE of Palmyra).

SigInt: Japanese agents from San Francisco report... the harbor to be empty! Not one PT boat or ferry left. Looks like Bart is using San Jose and Los Angeles as his only West Coast convoy hubs.


obvert: Thats what I thought, but the hex is Melbourne. I'm nearly sure its still afloat, she made that far without visiting Perth(my subs are monitoring traffic, I have multiple E14Ys there too) so how could she be sunk? I did hear some sinking sounds after the night naval movement phase(2 sounds almost simultaneously actually, like, on of each other) but I'm pretty sure it were those 2 AVDs from KB attack 2 days ago that sunk.

What I'm thinking, based on confirmed sunk ships in my game where I can remember exactly what hit the ship, and where and when, is that the message is correct in that it confirms the sinking but there is FOW in the time, place and means of sinking. So it might not have been that date in Melbourne at all. Is the ordinance that killed it correct?

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: obvert
What I'm thinking, based on confirmed sunk ships in my game where I can remember exactly what hit the ship, and where and when, is that the message is correct in that it confirms the sinking but there is FOW in the time, place and means of sinking. So it might not have been that date in Melbourne at all. Is the ordinance that killed it correct?

Yeah, the ordnance to have sunk the Durban is reported to be 250kg SAP bombs, which is correct(unless she sunk, after all, after a collision, a repair accident or even hitting a friendly mine).

[Erkki]

May 14th


DEI: Soerebaja falls! Most of the defenders(4 battalion size units of 2 support) surrender. The Allies now only have 4 operational airfields left in the entire East Indies.

Kido Butai: Stays hidden and will be nearing Tahiti tomorrow. Link up with replenishment TF in 3 days somewhere in the middle of nowhere.

Los Angeles Harbor is reported to have 207 ships, with 5 small warships(reportedly destroyers).

Home Islands: R&D advanced the next Zero, A6M3a, by a month!

[Erkki]

May 15th


Kido Butai: Finds more prey! A 7-ship tanker convoy is sighted at extreme range for B5Ns. Due to the bad weather and long range, 2/3 of the attackers dont reach the target, and only 13 B5Ns from CVs Akagi and Hiryu attack. They miss the 2 escorting minelayer/destroyer DMs but also put 5 bombs on a medium-size tanker. Empty one but it still sinks nicely. Tomorrow, the KB will keep heading SW towards Tahiti, as I suppose Bart will now half expect a move to directly East or SE to finish off that convoy(which due to range, weather and fuel situation I'm not going to try).

Everywhere else:

Tawi Tawi island occupied(between Borneo and Philippines).

The airfield, port and fortification constructions in the Solomons, New Guinea and Horn Island are progressing very nicely - the 3 most important bases of the Guadalcanal area will have forts level 3 within a week, and there are now a dozen airfields within range, of 4 can fully support offensive sorties by 2 engine bombers(or are size 4).

The crack 12th Infantry Division starts boarding ships at Shanghai. It should arrive at Rangoon, Burma, in 2 weeks.

[obvert]

When I raided Tahiti, I was sighted even though detection didn't go up at all. There is a small air support unit at Rarotonga I think it is. Anyway, you should find something, as he's got to start building somewhere, and where there are tankers, there is usually more.

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: obvert

When I raided Tahiti, I was sighted even though detection didn't go up at all. There is a small air support unit at Rarotonga I think it is. Anyway, you should find something, as he's got to start building somewhere, and where there are tankers, there is usually more.

Yeah I know its possible, but knowing how paranoid my opponent is over losing ships of ANY class, I dont think he knew for sure that the KB turned SSW. The KB is formed by 4 task forces so I think the chance for at least one of them to sight a patrol aircraft is fairly high.

Tomorrow, KB will be just 4 hex out of strike range, but we might need to refuel first...

I think Allies are building up Pago Pago, Canton, Christmas and Tahiti as these have been the only CEN/SOPAC islands with any sigint activity reported during the entire war.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Erkki

May 15th

Kido Butai: Finds more prey! A 7-ship tanker convoy is sighted at extreme range for B5Ns. Due to the bad weather and long range, 2/3 of the attackers dont reach the target, and only 13 B5Ns from CVs Akagi and Hiryu attack. They miss the 2 escorting minelayer/destroyer DMs but also put 5 bombs on a medium-size tanker. Empty one but it still sinks nicely. Tomorrow, the KB will keep heading SW towards Tahiti, as I suppose Bart will now half expect a move to directly East or SE to finish off that convoy(which due to range, weather and fuel situation I'm not going to try).

Nice job Erkki. I mentioned earlier you might have to venture that far out to find something. The bases you mentioned showing Allied activity were bang on for my game as well. Only Christmas, Tahiti, Pago Pago and Suva were built up. I think taking any of those bases would throw a monkey wrench into the Allied buildup. The supporting islands tend to be completely ignored, take any of the main ones and the Allies' would be thin in the secure LOC department to Australia short of the map edge and Cape Town.