Disaster in the making. Oloren (axis) vs Terje (USSR)

[terje439]

Turn 110

Overall
In the end, Randallw is correct. I fail to take into account the cowardice of my units. This is due to my only experience being as the Axis against an easy AI. Still no excuse.
The Axis keeps attacking their way north, it seems they try to gain enough cities to get an autovictory, well I doubt he will keep it up, but if he does, I am happy with that.
The Axis launch a total of 11 attacks, scoring 1 held, 4 retreats and 6 routs. We launch 9 attacks, and get 1 held and 8 retreats. Two things that is ruining the assault for me are the need for a 2:1, and the never-routing Germans, which are both things I cannot change, so I need to find a workaround.
Losses are reported as 10.000 Axis troops and 79.000 on our side, and this seems off to me...
Our manpower pool recieves 189.000 pair of hands this turn and ends at 221 this turn. Our vehicle pool continues to grow, and is now at 137.993.

Units
We form 3 rifle corps and 1 mechanized corps, as well as order the construction of 3 mechanized brigades this turn.
If the reported losses are correct, this leaves us with a net growth of 107.000 soldiers this turn.

Partisans
22 sabotague actions and 15 drops makes this an "ok" turn. I would have liked to see more supply drops, but we will take what we get. 8 attacks on our partisans by the Axis means we are left with 25 untis at the end of the turn. Too bad this Hydra is more an annoyance than a real threat though.

Worries
No real worry, more of a curiosity. Will the Axis keep attacking and go for an attempted autovictory by trying to rout enough units to clear out my line, or will they fall back? If they keep attacking, I will be happy, and the fact that they routed 6 units this turn does not help them as all but 2 of them have allready rallied.

[Q-Ball]

You can't close a big encirclement right now; you don't have enough mobile forces. Germans are much tougher to pocket, and generally, you only pocket them a few units at a time.

I like your attacking further south; that will give him pause. I would probably attack more on a direct access toward Moscow, across that clear terrain to the east of the city. Easier sleddding, and that is also territory you can use for later.

Whatever you do, I would have very thin forces at the tip of the Schwerpunkt. I know that is counterintuitive, but you want to draw him further north. Defend Yaroslav, but if he wants to grab more Light Woods, absolutely encourage that

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

You can't close a big encirclement right now; you don't have enough mobile forces. Germans are much tougher to pocket, and generally, you only pocket them a few units at a time.

I like your attacking further south; that will give him pause. I would probably attack more on a direct access toward Moscow, across that clear terrain to the east of the city. Easier sleddding, and that is also territory you can use for later.

Whatever you do, I would have very thin forces at the tip of the Schwerpunkt. I know that is counterintuitive, but you want to draw him further north. Defend Yaroslav, but if he wants to grab more Light Woods, absolutely encourage that

At the moment, I can only launch one major attack at a time, but I am slooowly gathering some reserves in the south aas well, but I keep on attacking there, just to keep the Axis on their toes.
The main problem as I see it with keeping few units at the tip of the spear, is that my 12-15 MP Guards Rifle Corps are my door-openers, and if they need to advance more than 1 hex before getting into German ZoC, they will usually not have enough MP to launch a deliberate attack, forcing me to rely on hasty attacks. And those need to achieve a 2:1...

Hmm this is hard. But love it nevertheless [:)]

Terje

[gingerbread]

I would have liked to see more supply drops, but we will take what we get.

You need to rotate your transports. Send one (pick the lowest morale group) from each base to reserve. If you have the planes and 2 AP, make two more groups to keep the bases full.

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

I would have liked to see more supply drops, but we will take what we get.

You need to rotate your transports. Send one (pick the lowest morale group) from each base to reserve. If you have the planes and 2 AP, make two more groups to keep the bases full.

I am sending the ones with morale below 38 back to reserves as I believe they will not go above 39 in the reserves???
Bases are usally full, but I am vary of sending anything but fighters and transports to my VVS airfield as it seems a waste of "partisan supply missions" to have tactical bombers on these airfields?


Terje

[Seminole]

I am sending the ones with morale below 38 back to reserves as I believe they will not go above 39 in the reserves???

I'm in the process of re-organizing my AF and I've seen much higher morale figures in the reserve. 

Bases are usally full, but I am vary of sending anything but fighters and transports to my VVS airfield as it seems a waste of "partisan supply missions" to have tactical bombers on these airfields?

AI will also use level bombers if you don't have enough transports.  I would think the fighters would be a waste of support in the VVS airbase though.

[gingerbread]

I think I finally understood your reference to morale of above 39 - it's connected to National Morale (NM), right?

Well, NM does not apply to air units and, as an aside, for ground units it starts to increase by 1pt/month beginning September '42.

Air units can recover morale to much higher levels in the reserve, but I suggest you cycle the transports back to a base when they have 70, possibly earlier if the groups at bases are low.

Also, my suggestion to create more groups was intended to be read as C-47/Li-2 (not the Li-2 bomber) transport groups, to replace the ones sent to reserve.

The average morale for transport air groups at bases should reach at least 50 with this implemented. Some work and 2 AP, sure but you did notice a decline in effect after the initially assigned groups got worn down. This is a scheme to counter that decline.

Keep bases on functioning rail lines - the vodka bottles break easily when transported by truck. [;)]

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: Seminole

AI will also use level bombers if you don't have enough transports.  I would think the fighters would be a waste of support in the VVS airbase though.

I thought the fighters would escort the transports, or if not, atleast defend the base if the Germans attacked. Level bombers are far too valuable for me to use as transports, unlike the TACs, the level bombers can wreck havoc to units in the open.

Terje

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

I think I finally understood your reference to morale of above 39 - it's connected to National Morale (NM), right?

Well, NM does not apply to air units and, as an aside, for ground units it starts to increase by 1pt/month beginning September '42.

Air units can recover morale to much higher levels in the reserve, but I suggest you cycle the transports back to a base when they have 70, possibly earlier if the groups at bases are low.

Also, my suggestion to create more groups was intended to be read as C-47/Li-2 (not the Li-2 bomber) transport groups, to replace the ones sent to reserve.

The average morale for transport air groups at bases should reach at least 50 with this implemented. Some work and 2 AP, sure but you did notice a decline in effect after the initially assigned groups got worn down. This is a scheme to counter that decline.

Keep bases on functioning rail lines - the vodka bottles break easily when transported by truck. [;)]

Ah, thought NM applied to aerial units too, now that is a bugger [:)]
Yeah, still somewhat low on C47s in the pool though, some 40 left after upgrading two groups...
It seems to me that that would indeed be a good idea, to create some more transports for myself, an excellent idea in fact.

Terje

[terje439]

Turn 111

Overall
In the end it all became a game of chicken. We won though. The Axis limit themselves to two attacks, and gain two retreats this turn. We perform 9 attacks and score 3 held and 6 retreats, 1 of the held results being an all out arty attack. Also this turn had an attack featuring close to 4.000 artillery pieces, that was an (atleast to me) astonishing number. Once more I attack all along the line, and I also take the oppertunity to attack retreating German infantry divisions that are not dug in. The German panzer divisions on the line in the south were hit again as they are not dug in. After two attacks, a total of 120 AFVs are lost by two divisions alone. At the end of the turn, losses are reported at 37.000 for the Axis, and 85.000 for us, so a decent exchange.
189.000 workers report to the manpower pool this turn, and it ends at 2.434, we also now have a few manpower centres damaged as the Germans came close to them, but they should recover from the shock.

Units
I placed 17 aerial units into the reserves this turn, I could have done more, but the having to keep opening the units list for every unit I want to send to reserves, is annoying... The interesting thing I noticed (and this is something I have noticed before as well), is that TACs are overrepresented in the low morale section. Of the 17 units, 14 were TACs, 2 were Fighter-Bombers and 1 was a transport unit.
I went somewhat easy on the unit building this turn, and only order the formation of 3 mechanized brigades and a tank HQ. The thought behind the HQ is this, I will form my reserves into a single front, and currently that front only has one subordinate HQ, I need atleast 3. I also spent quite a few points on rearranging some generals this turn, wanting the best for this "reserve front" as this will be my speartip (atleast that is my intention). So, Zhukov gets to lead them, and by now I do not recall the other two I shuffled around, but they had 6-6 in terms of mech-inf, and their "non combat" skills were above average too, so I think/hope/pray this is a wise move.
With (for the last few turns) low casualties, we are once more approaching the 100k reinforcement line, but we are still a little shy, as our forces grew by 97.000 this turn.

Partisans
22 acts of sabotague gets rewarded by 28 supply drops this turn. And even better, despite the 10 attacks from the Axis, our number of units grow to 33 this turn.

Operation Derainbowanize
This is started slowly this turn, and will take a few turns to complete. Anyone wanna guess what it is all about? [:D]

Worries
Not much that comes to my attention for now, maybe about removing Zhukov as commander from his current HQ, but I think it is a good choice.

[gingerbread]

Actually, you should make an orthogonal rainbow, but skip the overtones.

[Q-Ball]

Nice job. That was Zitadelle II. You won, because he expended his reserves to gain nothing. You can replace everything you lost, he can't. That's the win.

Keep pressing, though, and get closer to Moscow.

A better idea for him would have been to wait for you to make a move, then counterattack aggressively and blow-up all your units.

[janh]

Great job! He finally got his reasoning back.  If he had been cut off with his armor up there, no matter how unlikely withe force composition that the Soviets can bring up at this stage, the AAR could have run into a "sudden death".   Better this way, because it is very interesting!  Keep it going and good luck with your rainbows!

[terje439]

Well...again things change from turn to turn...

Well Q-Ball, I agree that he should have waited, at the same time I am still somewhat disappointed by the movement of my rifle and tank corps. They still refuse to enter a "red hex" unless they are close to max MP. My mechs though, thank you for that tip, love these guys (even if they do seem to lose half their CV when moving some distance...Guess the weak and old die or something )

Janh - I think the game will go to the bitter end, Oloren has promised this, he will fight for the last block of Berlin. But I sort of agree, this keeps the suspension.


Terje

[terje439]

Turn 112

Overall
The Axis attack once more, and this time they pocket three rifle corps. Although the pocket is not firmly shut, my reserves are badly placed to aid against those attacks, and trying to free these three corps might have ended up costing me most of my mechanized corps, so it is not worth it.
The Axis perform 8 attacks, and score 4 retreat and 4 routs, and this is the scary part about the Axis, they do not need to make alot of attacks to be dangerous.
We launch a total of 16 attacks, sadly a staggering 6 of these are held results (I have not been playing this game for long, but I have gotten the impression that the USSR too only needed a 1:1 earlier?), still 10 retreats is still a good result. Unless the Axis though, my attacks are made all along the line, and some of them are made simply to deny the Axis to dig in, and to increase Axis losses. The Axis is still keeping several panzer divisions on the line further south, and those are not dig in. Have to say, I REALLY love that [:D]
I am somewhat uncertain bout the accuracy about the losses report though, as it claims a mere 12.000 Axis troops killed, this seems way to low for me. Our losses make more sense with 87.000 dead.
Our manpower pool see a total of 190.000 workers this turn, ending it at 4.501.

Units
This turn a level bomber unit is allowed some R&R as they lost more than 25 points of morale this last turn.
I from 1 rifle corps, 1 mechanized corps, and order the construction of 3 mortar brigades, 3 mechanized brigades, and I also allow Badanov to create 3 heavy tank regiments.
IF the losses information is correct, our forces grew by 102.000 soldiers this turn. It seems this number is on the raise again. Good!

Partisans
A staggering 15 attacks by the Axis leave us with 30 active units this turn. These guys then manage to perform 21 sabotagues missions, and are in turn rewarded by 23 supply drops.

Operation Derainbowanize
SUSPENDED

HQ Zhukov
As mentioned last turn, Zhukov takes over command of our reserves in a front of its own, this front will from now on be called HQ Zhukov. So far it has two subordinate HQs, led by Badanov and Chernyakhovsky (I HAD to chose one with such a name...[:(]).
For now it mainly consists of a few mechanized corps, but it will grow as time passes. For now, I will post the leader stats (numbers given as they are seen on the leader screen, last two numbers being wins/losses so far).

Zhukov - 8887 7911 120/241
Badanov - 6654 5511 1/2
Chernyakovsky - 6665 6611 0/0

Worries
Can I get my units in place in time to form a proper salient?

Changes
I managed to find another 5 units to add to the eastern front of the salient after the picture was taken.

[Joel Billings]

Remember that what you see at the start of your turn includes your logistics phase losses but not the German logistics phase losses. So if you are looking at current turn losses these will never include your opponent's logistics losses. German units are very often damaged instead of destroyed, which means more of their casualties (as a percentage) are susceptible to logistics phase rolls for destruction. The only way to really know how many losses were in a turn is to track the totals to date from turn to turn. Since 1% of all German disabled and 0.5% of all Soviet disabled return to the pool, you have to account for this in your calculations if you are not just looking at KIA and MIA. Hope this helps.

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

Remember that what you see at the start of your turn includes your logistics phase losses but not the German logistics phase losses. So if you are looking at current turn losses these will never include your opponent's logistics losses. German units are very often damaged instead of destroyed, which means more of their casualties (as a percentage) are susceptible to logistics phase rolls for destruction. The only way to really know how many losses were in a turn is to track the totals to date from turn to turn. Since 1% of all German disabled and 0.5% of all Soviet disabled return to the pool, you have to account for this in your calculations if you are not just looking at KIA and MIA. Hope this helps.

But that is not really what I am looking at. The thing that I notice, is that in turns with heavy fighting, the reports can claim a mere 15k dead Axis troops, while a turn with less fighting shows 40k dead Axis troops. Heavier fighting should result in more dead troops than turns with less fighting.
Oh well, might just as well be me seeing ghosts

Thank you for the post.

Terje

[terje439]

Turn 113

Overall
I did not want to say anything last turn, but I had a bad feeling, and there is noone to blame but myself. And when I opened this turn, I could atleast confirm that I was right. I need to lose my guards units, they are killing me...
Anyway, the Germans lash out and trap more units while we slowly march towards Moscow.
The Germans manage to achieve 10 retreats, 3 routs and 3 surrenders this turn for a total of 16 attacks. We on the other side only managed 7 held and 7 retreats, where one held was an all out artillery attack.
Casulties are listed as 38.000 Axis troops to 169.000 of ours...Not a good ratio.
The manpower pool recieves 193.000 workers, and end at 3.368

Units
The bad news is that 3 rifle crops were lost this turn (well if that is bad, next turn will be bloody murder). We did however build 1 rifle corps, 1 mechanized corps and 3 mechanized brigades this turn, so all in all, we break even in ammount of available corps (the brigades will combine when they are released) we have, but it should have been a growt...
With heavy losses this turn, our armed forces only grew by 31.000 troops this turn.

Partisans
23 supply drops were made, and our partisans repaid this by conducting 31 sabotague actions, or 1 per active unit, as 31 units are left at the map after the Axis launch 13 anti-partisan attacks.

HQ Zhukov
3 rifle corps and 2 mechanized corps are placed under Zhukov HQ this turn. Although I could use them at the slug-fest going around east of Moscow, I will instead bring them south to try to push a little harder there.

Worries
I am too attached to my guards, I need to stop it, it is losing me the game.

[terje439]

Since I am Norwegian, and it IS the 24th...
Merry Christmas to all the readers in here, may the holiday be blessed for you all and your loved ones

Not sure if there will be any postings tomorrow, it all depends upon how early I get out of bed, and how lazy I feel when I get back from my sister and her family [:)]

Terje

[Baelfiin]

Have a good one terje 8)