Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

3/18/42

Burma: Over the past ten days, I've watched as Dave sent much of his known-schwerpunkt far into Burma, chasing the retreating, rag-tag Allied army. I felt like there was a chance his main bases (Moulmein, Rangoon) might be lightly defended. He has no sea lane open, so supply is probably a bit of an issue. Therefore, about 15 days ago, I began preliminary plans for an invasion - the main thing being to get as many xAPs and ground units to Madras as possible. Everything continued to look good, so I pressed the trigger.

There's no doubt this caught him by surprise. He's recalled a lot of his units from Upper Burma.

But I may end up regretting this, as DS is not particularly strong. There's a real chance the Allies could take their lumps from enemy LBA.

But if this succeeds it complicates Dave's situation enormously. He'll need KB to restore order, and I'm pretty sure it's en route to SoPac. Burma will become a nightmare for him. And the Allies could possibly re-open the Burma Road.

So I feel like trying this is worth the risk.

[BBfanboy]

Beautiful counter-thrust! Looking forward to seeing it play out.
Couple of thoughts:
- Chiang Mai rail terminus is likely the other main supply route. Take that and he will be really forced to eat shoe leather.
- If Lashio is not strongly held, there is a nice dirt road leading there from Myitkyna ....

[Canoerebel]

3/19/22 and 3/20/22

Burma: With just two USN CVs and one RN CV, the approach to Moulmein was a puckering event. The possibility that Dave might be able to load up Rangoon, Moulmein, Tavoy, Chang Mai and Bangkok was frightening, though I felt like he was likely to have serious supply and base force issues.

But, as I noted last time, I felt it was a chance worth taking. I knew Erik's fighter corp had just been engaged in a heavy battle at Singers, so would be tuckered out. And I had an actionable hunch that KB had retired from Java up the Malacca Strait to report for duty eventually in SoPac.

The Allied armada moves forward without any opposition from enemy air on the 19th. On the 20th, Allied troops begin coming ashore without opposition from enemy aircraft. That's a huge relief, but only a modest number of troops come ashore, both at Pegu and at Moulmein.

Enemy troops are moving back from Upper Burma, slowed by Allied air attacks.

Things look good.

[Canoerebel]

3/21/42

Burma: And in pops KB! How did it get here? What am I going to do?

And what's the deal with my little army at Moulmein?

I ran this turn at 4:30 this morning, before leaving on my hiking expedition. It was a bad way to start a day.

[Canoerebel]

3/22/42

Burma: KB makes ten hexes, sinks two xAKLs, and damages one DD. But the Allied fleet, at flank speed, flees successfully. Most combat ships and all carriers are far away now. The merchantmen are in harm's way if Dave uses flank speed, but their also at flank and are beginning to spread out, some going to Madras others to Calcutta.

[Canoerebel]

This is a crazy fur-ball.

On the negative side, there's a decent chance I'm going to lost most or all of my expeditionary army.

On the plus side, Dave is gonna be busy up here for awhile. Other theaters might benefit.

The invasion bonus expires in less than 10 days.

[RangerJoe]

He wasted KB invasion bonus time with the Lexington, now he is wasting it reacting to your moves. When the bonus is over, he will have to do more preparation which should slow him down. Very nicely done, although you probably would rather have the Lady Lex floating as well as all of that time wasted.

The KB might need minor repairs which might wait until upgrade time. That might be another opportunity to make some attacks/raids.

Also, he keeps burning precious fuel . . .

[nicwb]

Also I guess, the occasional aggressive move on your part may keep him looking over his shoulder.

[T Rav]

I love that fact that you used DM Abdiel, one of my favorite early war ships.

[Uncivil Engineer]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

He wasted KB invasion bonus time with the Lexington, now he is wasting it reacting to your moves. When the bonus is over, he will have to do more preparation which should slow him down. Very nicely done, although you probably would rather have the Lady Lex floating as well as all of that time wasted.

The KB might need minor repairs which might wait until upgrade time. That might be another opportunity to make some attacks/raids.

Also, he keeps burning precious fuel . . .

Not only is he burning fuel, but where will KB refuel? You still have Singapore and Medan; I don't think CV's can get into Rangoon or Palembang, so he surely must have tankers trailing KB, or he returns to Java/Miri/Cam Ranh Bay (all a long way away). Find the tankers!

[Canoerebel]

He might be able to draw a little fuel from Victoria Point or Georgetown or Malacca or Oosthaven. Or perhaps he has AOs en route. But fuel should be a concern for him. I have subs and mine-laying subs moving on likely ports and vectors.

[Canoerebel]

3/23/42

Bay of Bengals: Dave has done a fine job of turning the tables on me, with an assist from me for sticking my head in a noose.

But he's also charging around reacting to me, committing forces in ways likely contrary to what he wants to do and needs to do elsewhere.

The outcome is still to be determined - can he pick off my carriers or good combat ships? will my subs get lucky? can I extricate my army before he locks down all escape vectors?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

He wasted KB invasion bonus time with the Lexington, now he is wasting it reacting to your moves. When the bonus is over, he will have to do more preparation which should slow him down. Very nicely done, although you probably would rather have the Lady Lex floating as well as all of that time wasted.

The KB might need minor repairs which might wait until upgrade time. That might be another opportunity to make some attacks/raids.

Also, he keeps burning precious fuel . . .

Not only is he burning fuel, but where will KB refuel? You still have Singapore and Medan; I don't think CV's can get into Rangoon or Palembang, so he surely must have tankers trailing KB, or he returns to Java/Miri/Cam Ranh Bay (all a long way away). Find the tankers!

He could pull into any port on Malayan peninsula. Georgetown is a level 4 port to start with IIRC (or at least a level 3), and should have accumulated a small amount of fuel on its own.

It will draw more if he sends the ships there to refuel.

[Uncivil Engineer]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

He wasted KB invasion bonus time with the Lexington, now he is wasting it reacting to your moves. When the bonus is over, he will have to do more preparation which should slow him down. Very nicely done, although you probably would rather have the Lady Lex floating as well as all of that time wasted.

The KB might need minor repairs which might wait until upgrade time. That might be another opportunity to make some attacks/raids.

Also, he keeps burning precious fuel . . .

Not only is he burning fuel, but where will KB refuel? You still have Singapore and Medan; I don't think CV's can get into Rangoon or Palembang, so he surely must have tankers trailing KB, or he returns to Java/Miri/Cam Ranh Bay (all a long way away). Find the tankers!

He could pull into any port on Malayan peninsula. Georgetown is a level 4 port to start with IIRC (or at least a level 3), and should have accumulated a small amount of fuel on its own.

It will draw more if he sends the ships there to refuel.

Sure, there are lots of places he could draw "a little fuel", and he would have to SIT at Georgetown to draw more. I wouldn't want the KB to SIT anywhere. And you know as well as anyone, the KB sucks A LOT of fuel.

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer
Sure, there are lots of places he could draw "a little fuel", and he would have to SIT at Georgetown to draw more. I wouldn't want the KB to SIT anywhere. And you know as well as anyone, the KB sucks A LOT of fuel.

Drawing can be initiated by assigning a homeport for the KB TF while the latter is still at sea. So fuel will be there already by the time ships come. Port action points for refuelling are still limited though

[Bif1961]

He can send his smaller vessels CAs down into Rangoon and get fuel from there and refuel his carriers. So how much fuel was left behind when Rangoon fell is the question? Sorties are another issue of course as he needs to get his carriers to a port to build those back and not sure if he has one handy. If you are feeling adventerous you might give him some low value single targets to go after, run him low of sorties and torps then counter-attack with your full carrier force while he is in the middle of the Bay of Bengal. Also using some harassing high altitude bomber naval strikes to stretch his CAP levels and wear them down with fatigue. You will be able to determine how much of the KB he has here as well, it might just be 2-3 fleet carriers and a few CVEs. You stuck your head in a noose but you might be able to reverse the situation and place the noose around his next as he is drawn deeper into the Bay of Bengal.

Now with regards to your trapped Aussie divisions. I would strat move them to Pegu and use your recon air assets to determine what he has on every city along the rail lines. I would fake move the small unit at Pegu towards Rangoon, hopefully fooling him that Rangoon is the primary target and freeze his forces there. I am assuming he is at least at garrison requirement level and has at least level 1 forts and building. Once at Pegu keep the two Aussie divisions in start and hopefully the next city along the rail line is lightly defended and I hope you have a paratroop or two units available. If so you can jump in and take it (I believe Toungo,) and then move your stack quickly there and further and further away from his land based bombers. If I were him I would bring in anything that can fly and drop bombers within range and bomb your two isolated divisions, that's why regular road movement would be painfully slow and the least attractive option. If you have been successful to that point then your recon flights over the rest of the rail base cities will tell you the most likely target for your next para jump, if you have any paras left to jump. If Magwe is lightly defended and you have the paras left to take it then you can move the Aussie stack there via strat. At that point you can decide to change movement mode and either move on Mandalay and cut off his 33rd Inf Div in upper Burma and make a stand there, flying in base forces and supplies and out units you want to save, or cross the river from Magwe in a NW direction get into the jungle and march into your lines from there. Of course all this will be determined on your recon flights over those rail cities in Burma, how well they are defended and how many para units you have withing range with transports to take them. Another option starts the same way with a quick rail movement into Pegu, with the unit already there fake moving towards Rangoon. If you determine there is not much more in Rangoon then a base garrison and level 1 forts your combined stack might be able to move into it and take it then para Jump into Prome if lightly defended and strat move into Prome and then cross the river in normal movement and head up the coastal road towards your lines. His priority is to destroy what you left behind because these two Aussie Divisions is your major reinforcements to CBI, besides the 18th Brit Division, where ever you left it. Hunting down your fleeing fleet would be a secondary concern to me as you ability to rebuild these two good units is very limited and might open up opportunities to him later after Singapore eventually falls. I hope my thoughts on the mater at hand are helpful and not depressing. Only you know your abilities to rescue these trapped forces and how.

[Canoerebel]

Oops, posted in wrong AAR.

Dave and I have flipped a bunch more turns. I'll post later. Suffice to say that KB vanished without a trace, somewhere in the Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea. Things have stabilized, for the moment.

[adarbrauner]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Chinese have a decent army at Sian and more at key points in the rough terrain to the NW. So this theater still has hope.

It depends. You know that thr greatest concern within the Chinese army is replacements for they depleted corps, which are never enough or up the pace of sustained engagement.if you keep looking for continous attrition with IJA you may very soon turn out of replacements (you already should be), with a cascade effect of colossal proportions, if IJAshall keep pushing.

When commanding China, you need be paying supreme attention to economy.

[Canoerebel]

3/24/42 to 3/29/42

I sticks my head in the noose and Dave is yanking the rope while I kick him in the shins. Or something like that.

Bay of Bengal: KB came, saw and restored order for the Japanese in this region (Dave did a fine job and I misjudged KB's likely destination badly). My little expeditionary army is isolated. Death Star made it safely to Madras and is protected there by a large group of fighters. I think it's safe. Meanwhile, Dave is leaning this way, which I hope has some positive results elsewhere. I need to balance the ledger sheet.

Singers: With him focusing so heavily on the threat in the Bay, forts here continue rising steadily. Now at 5.61. I hope he remains distracted a bit longer and doesn't try another attack until he can bring in divisions from Java, the Philippines or whatever. He has 2900 AV at Singers; I have 1400 with 155k supply.

China: His army is adjacent to Sian but shows no movement yet. A secondary MLR is now in place.

DEI: Allies still hold western (northern) Sumatra, Batavia (by skin of teeth) and Soerabaja. Dave's methodically rolling through this territory and picking up various islands and outposts.

Philippines: Allied army still holding at Clark Field. I never thought it would still be there as April approached. It won't be much longer.

Pacific: No real enemy moves anywhere in this theater. I've maximized defenses at Midway and have a good speed bump at Luganville. Smaller efforts are in place at Dutch Harbor and at Efate.
Pacif

[RangerJoe]

If you can, try to bring out a piece of every unit from the Moulmein/Pegu area by flying boat so you won't have to buy the unit out if you can't rescue the main unit. It will save months waiting for the unit to return.

At least you know where the KB is and you have it reacting to you. Do you think that you can hurt it? Your subs should be in a nice blocking position and fully armed if I understand your post correctly.