OT - The New Coronavirus

[Erik Rutins]

Thank you RFalvo, please stay safe and I'm glad you are with family.

[Erik Rutins]

ORIGINAL: Lobster
Thanks for that very well written report. Now they are talking about a second wave? I have no idea what that means.

In past Pandemics, there can be two "peaks" of infection, a first and a second wave (often when initial restrictions from the first wave are relaxed) until enough people are infected to provide some herd immunity or the virus is contained.

Unfortunately, because this seems determined to spread around the world, it's quite possible that we'll see further waves of exported cases as it becomes prevalent in more countries, sparking new waves until it's either burned through or under control in most places.

I am seriously hoping for the scenario where we do eventually manage to control it before we get to "herd immunity" levels given how dangerous this virus is to many people.

Regards,

- Erik

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

Thanks for that very well written report. Now they are talking about a second wave? I have no idea what that means.

People who did not get it the first time around may get it. With the loosening of restrictions, more people may become infected. The experts don't know if a person can get sick from it more than once.

[Canoerebel]

It'll be interesting to see how things work in China.

The new infection rate there has been steady since about March 1, at roughly 100 per day. If the data from China is true (WHO and other reputable organizations seem to recognize it), then the pandemic is over there. But if there's a sudden flurry of new cases, as restrictions ease, we'll have something else to worry about. Hopefully that won't happen - and there's no evidence of it, yet.

[Erik Rutins]

I'd like to post a few things I've found in terms of what might work to make this virus less lethal. A lot of clinical trials in China will be at the results stage in April, so expect more news then.

First, Chlorquine Phosphate and Hydroxychlorquine Phosphate. These seem to be helping and South Korea seems to be using these and Zinc as their go-to at this point.

"BREAKING: S. Korea significantly reducing lethality of coronavirus by prescribing a chloroquine diphosphate salt + zinc treatment combo to block COVID-19 viral enzyme @ 500 mg per day of chloroquine + zinc for 10 days"

This doctor in Spain is documenting his experience with COVID-19 and seeing improvement with HCQ.

https://twitter.com/yaletung

Preliminary clinical trial results attached.

[Erik Rutins]

Here's a summary of a bunch of medications being investigated, including the potentially promising new anti-viral Remdesivir which is available for compassionate use from Gilead Sciences in the US (apparently your doctor has to apply over the internet, but approvals are quick):

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... s-reviewed

Therapies and vaccines in development:

https://www.biocentury.com/article/304515

[Erik Rutins]

Some speculation about a drug that can block one of the ways COVID-19 infects the body:

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S009 ... 20)30229-4

And some news from Japan that an existing anti-asthma drug may help:

https://writening.net/page?FC3QPm

[Erik Rutins]

Also, the two webinars here with the Chinese Doctor in charge of the entire Chinese response, Dr. Nanshan Zhong, are very interesting:

https://www.ers-education.org/events/co ... nar-series

[RangerJoe]

I could not get the cell one to open but the other one was interesting. A 78 year old man smoking 4 packs a day?

[UP844]

Great report, RFalvo69! A perfect picture of the locked down Italy.

Basically, a zombie apocalypse where the zombies do not moan and do not chase you...

Friday I made a very short exit to buy some groceries and I felt like Charlton Heston in the first scene of The Omega Man[X(].

[Jonathan Pollard]

For what it's worth, I read the following comment on an Iranian website: "Nebulizing MCT oil effectively kills corona pneumonia and acute symptoms very rapidly, I can attest." See Ty's comment at the following: https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/03/ ... nse-drills

[RangerJoe]

Satellite images show Iran building burial pits, expanding cemetery for coronavirus victims

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/satell ... s-victims/

[z1812]

https://quillette.com/2020/03/14/concei ... ed-europe/

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

ORIGINAL: Lobster
Thanks for that very well written report. Now they are talking about a second wave? I have no idea what that means.

In past Pandemics, there can be two "peaks" of infection, a first and a second wave (often when initial restrictions from the first wave are relaxed) until enough people are infected to provide some herd immunity or the virus is contained.

Unfortunately, because this seems determined to spread around the world, it's quite possible that we'll see further waves of exported cases as it becomes prevalent in more countries, sparking new waves until it's either burned through or under control in most places.

I am seriously hoping for the scenario where we do eventually manage to control it before we get to "herd immunity" levels given how dangerous this virus is to many people.

Regards,

- Erik

I guess there's more to learn about this that will only be answered by the passage of time. [:(]

[Curtis Lemay]

Hate to be bearer of bad tidings, but I think we've been looking at the statistics wrong. Here are the current figures:

156,478 cases
75,844 recovered
5833 deaths
(Source Wikipedia)

We had been comparing cases to deaths (5833/156478 = 3.7%).
But, we should compare recovered to deaths (5833/75844 = 7.7%), since those are the cases that have resolved the life vs. death issue (the rest have not).

That puts it far past a tour in Nam. I'm trying to find something that compares. So far I've got the Battle of Shiloh with 1728 vs 40335 = 4.3% for the Confederates (that doesn't count missing - many of which were dead). Gotta find something even worse.

This is definitely something you don't want to get.

(Edit: Confederate dead at Gettysburg sound closer. Stay tuned).

[Canoerebel]

That's incorrect. The 5,833 who have died didn't come from a pool limited to them and those who have recovered. It's part of a much larger population including active cases.

Secondly, the early tallies may be swayed by local conditions. More than half of the deaths have come from China, which was Ground Zero when everything was new.

Similarly, in the USA, more than half the deaths have come from Washington State, a lot of them from a single nursing home that was overwhelmed. Elsewhere, to this early date, the number of deaths has been far less. Will the rate pick up, keep steady, or drop? We don't know yet.

No credible sources are predicting 7.7% mortality rates for this virus, to my knowledge. Many are at 3% or less. A considerable number are below 1%.

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: Red2112

Today the goverment of Spain has declared a "state of alarm", pretty much the same restrictions as RFalvo69 has mentioned, except that no oficial documents are needed to be able to transit, but that could change in days to come. The goverment has also taken charge of all autonomic goverments too.

Aside from what RFalvo69 states with regards to how they had to adapt in a rush, we should also be aware that China has very well documented all there cases and findings of COVID-19, which in turn helps other countrys in there struggle with this virus. There´s no medals here folks!

Today we recived the sad news that my mom will not make it, she is now on morphine. The COVID-19 will take down with easy any elder with health issues, that´s a fact and this is REAL folks.

My condolences to you and your family, Red. [:(]

[RangerJoe]

Not only that for the deaths, there were probably other factors as well. If they already had other health problems, then how do you count the death.

As far as the cases go, those are only the known cases which would tend to be more severe. For those who had a mild case which never got tested, how are you going to count those unless you check for antibodies. That would be 60 million people to test in the Wuhan area alone, is it worth it? Are you going to personally pay for it? If not you, then whom?

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

But, we should compare recovered to deaths (5833/75844 = 7.7%), since those are the cases that have resolved the life vs. death issue (the rest have not).

I have to correct that slightly: Total resolved cases equal the total of recovered + deaths = 81677. And the new death rate is 5833/81677 = 7.1%.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Hate to be bearer of bad tidings.....

But, we should compare recovered to deaths (5833/75844 = 7.7%), since those are the cases that have resolved the life vs. death issue (the rest have not).

I have to correct that slightly: Total resolved cases equal the total of recovered + deaths = 81677. And the new death rate is 5833/81677 = 7.1%.

warspite1

Have I missed something or isn't that just being alarmist? How can the death rate be compared just to one portion of those with the disease i.e. those that have recovered? Most people in the current cases category will be absolutely fine and we know this, so what's with the 7.1%?

In Italy, where there are almost 18,000 active cases the serious/critical number just over 1,500 so how can you dismiss this? I don't think you are the bearer of bad tidings; I think you've just got the analysis wrong.