Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A)

[rustysi]

So, 3000 fighters/month losses. Minimum.

Sure, like its nothing....[:D]

[rustysi]

IJ top end fighters are a mix of: Ki84/94, Shinden, A7M, Ki83, Ki201. Assuming 85/15 split between the 1E/2E that means 3450 (let's round it to 3500) 1E equivalents or ~130,000 HI/month.

OK, I should be good here, with the exception of the Ki-201. Not going for it. That should leave the Ki-83 as the only twin engine plane.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

What about the SR ratings? Don't I need some SR1 planes to help out. If not how do I keep all those high SR rated planes in the fight? I mean I have a few ideas, but no experience as yet. One of the reasons I'm continuing my current AI game.

That's what I mean by you really have to choose between Tojo and Tony, and neither are very good later on. They're not completely awful, they just aren't very good.

[rustysi]

and at least 2M HI in the bank

It'll be tough, but I should make it. Got about 900k in Feb. '43 and rising well.

Also means that I had to expend 6M supply to have built the factories.

If you're including the R&D investment, I'm well on my way. I have about 3.5M in the bank right now, and rising slowly. That should change soon as I, at least, am dealing with my early '43 aircraft increases. At least for me I've gotten a bunch of 'new' aircraft to play with. Production went from 10-12/day to about 20-23/day with the new 'toys'.

It is so hard not to build 1000/month Ki44 in the mid game and just dominate easily.

Not even close. I just started getting the 'c' a couple of months ago and am building 'up' to five/day right now. The 'a' production was a mere three/day. Now in a PBEM its probable I'd need some more if the tempo demanded it, but I try to only produce the bare minimum to 'get by'.

with full ARM/VEH pools

Not sure how much is enough here. I'm approaching 200k in the ARM pool, but I've shut off a few. Producing ~400/day now, although that might be a mistake. VEH pool is ~38k with full production expanded over time to 250/day. All three divisions and most regiments have the Type-1 tank at the moment. A few in China and Manchukuo still have lesser models.

I prefer Shindens for that

I've had five R&D sites working from day one. All will likely go straight to production. Of course they still have a long way to complete their research. Is that enough?[:D]

[rustysi]

So, I will figure out what to do with the single size 360 engine factory. I'll convert it before this month is out. That'll be expensive, but necessary.

Over time, and you might not have to repair the whole thing. I did mine a different way. I have three totaling 10 engines/day. I wanted the build-up to be quicker to get the engine bonus early. It'll be easier to get rid of what I don't need. I still have ~830 engines in the bank, but I'm in Feb'43. That's down from over a thousand, but I figured with the expenditure for the bonus it would drop as it has. Same with me for the Ha-35.

[rustysi]

I re-activated the Tojo after the Tony was performing poorly, particularly against bombers.

Sorry to hear that, I always thought the two were about the same. Only reason I chose the Tojo was that I could get it first.

[rustysi]

enough for 337 Helen bombers and transports.

I've produced few Army bombers to date, feeling I wanted more of the Helen-IIb. I've only got them a month or two. Only produced a few IIa's. So now I'm moving to catch up mode on them.

Don't know how many you've in the field, but 300+ may bit a bit short, given that the transport model will more likely be your only Army transport. From my experience transports are difficult to get to high experience levels and subsequently take fairly high op losses, WRT to other plane types. So it might be better to have a few more than you think to be safe. Just a thought.

[rustysi]

you can go big on the George/Jack (pick one) so that you have at least one competitive fighter in early '43.

I wouldn't say I went 'big' on the George, unless you consider six R&D sites 'big'. I'll get it toward the end of March, which I thought was 'just in time' for the plane. Production will be somewhat low at first, 'til I get the later models.

I do have the Jack working too, but at a much lower rate. Two R&D, one of which just hit 30. The other has about four to go. I'll build some. It was a 'just in case' decision when I started the game. I do like its climb rate. I figure with the engine bonus I'll get it around June.

[rustysi]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: rustysi

What about the SR ratings? Don't I need some SR1 planes to help out. If not how do I keep all those high SR rated planes in the fight? I mean I have a few ideas, but no experience as yet. One of the reasons I'm continuing my current AI game.

That's what I mean by you really have to choose between Tojo and Tony, and neither are very good later on. They're not completely awful, they just aren't very good.

Thanks Loka.

[rustysi]

but my outlook is that they should be gone in favor of the Frank by 7/43

7/43???? Oh, I hope I haven't screwed up here, I won't have the Frank that early. I've got one factory to 30 and another close. The oddball (55 IIRC) is repairing well, but it'll be some time before its finished. The other three R&D I have working I brought in a while later, and they've a way to go. I have the engine bonus to move things along, but... I'm thinking I'll get it the end of '43 beginning '44. Was looking for the George to carry me to that point. I know it may put a bit of a strain on my IJN fighter pilots, but to date I've kept them out of the fight as much as possible. I think I've only one front-line right now in the Solomon's. I've got the Army doing most of the job.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Well, I crunch the numbers on plane production like this.
Scen 1
End game 9/45 onwards: Allies get ~1000/month top line fighters from production (P51,P47,F4U,Spit,Yak9). They get another 500/month in 2nd line fighters (older p51/p47/p38 types). Double that to account for all the new groups that come in fully stocked. At best, I have to plan for 1.5:1 loss rate. So, 3000 fighters/month losses. Minimum. Assuming I have not let the allies build pools, or that I have built pools to match. [;)]

IJ top end fighters are a mix of: Ki84/94, Shinden, A7M, Ki83, Ki201. Assuming 85/15 split between the 1E/2E that means 3450 (let's round it to 3500) 1E equivalents or ~130,000 HI/month. Also means that I had to expend 6M supply to have built the factories.

These are the numbers that haunt all of my early and mid-game plans. Given that the amount of supply and HI that IJ will have between 12/7/41 and 9/1/45 is finite and calculable, if your strategy is to outlast historical IJ efforts and push the game to 46, then the player has to temper their expenditures in the early/mid game (which historically IJ did). Arriving at 6/44 (my target date for keeping DEI whole at a minimum, I need to have 6M supply in the bank just for AC factory builds (less whatever I have already spent on final factories which will be some) and at least 2M HI in the bank with full ARM/VEH pools (minus whatever final engine pools) to be able to build out my AC plan.

That's it in a nutshell.

This is why I have long believed and espoused the Major Solli methods of economic expansion: slowly, carefully, and only the minimum needed. It is so hard not to build 1000/month Ki44 in the mid game and just dominate easily. But if you do, then you are going to have to fight endgame Stangs with Tojos … I prefer Shindens for that, but that's just me. [;)]

[:(][X(][8|]

I mean the whole thing... The whole thing. Mind boggling, how in the H$ll do I do that.[:D]

As Whatley says in The Martian, just do the math. [:D] You should see the spreadsheets that materialized when I read that post. [X(]

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

enough for 337 Helen bombers and transports.

I've produced few Army bombers to date, feeling I wanted more of the Helen-IIb. I've only got them a month or two. Only produced a few IIa's. So now I'm moving to catch up mode on them.

Don't know how many you've in the field, but 300+ may bit a bit short, given that the transport model will more likely be your only Army transport. From my experience transports are difficult to get to high experience levels and subsequently take fairly high op losses, WRT to other plane types. So it might be better to have a few more than you think to be safe. Just a thought.

I'm still contemplating when to convert that factory. Problem is, I have one Ha-34 factory, size 360. I need to convert it relatively soon to get it repaired. I may let it produce though the end of November 43. By that time, I will convert it.

Right now I have 6 1/3 sentai of the Helen IIa totaling 264 planes, with 4 in the pool. I've upgraded to the IIb and have 2 sentai (58 planes) with another 62 in the pool. I'm thinking of producing another 150ish bombers and put the rest of the engines into the Helen transport (my only transport). At some point, Japan will stop using their bombers as bombers and will convert them to ASW platforms. They cannot survive enemy fighters. The only places I bomb right now are Burma and China, with an occasional foray in the Aleutians.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I re-activated the Tojo after the Tony was performing poorly, particularly against bombers. Not what I expected given the relative strengths of the airframes, but the Tojo is just a better CAP plane even if the Tony is slightly better overall. Even in late 1944. You basically have to choose between the two and they're both mediocre.

I agree. Mediocre. Frank is better. Frank b, if you ever build it, is unbelievable against bombers; on par with frank a against fighters, so late '45 it isn't quite as competitive as the Frank r.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

What about the SR ratings? Don't I need some SR1 planes to help out. If not how do I keep all those high SR rated planes in the fight? I mean I have a few ideas, but no experience as yet. One of the reasons I'm continuing my current AI game.

I can manage high SR anywhere except on atolls. And frankly by '45 I ain't really defending any of those that are not within 8 hex range of something bigger that I own: PI, Formosa, HI, etc).
So, some Ki-100's as the best SR1 fighter I gonna get, but I'm not gonna invest much RnD in it.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

IJ top end fighters are a mix of: Ki84/94, Shinden, A7M, Ki83, Ki201. Assuming 85/15 split between the 1E/2E that means 3450 (let's round it to 3500) 1E equivalents or ~130,000 HI/month.

OK, I should be good here, with the exception of the Ki-201. Not going for it. That should leave the Ki-83 as the only twin engine plane.

I'm not saying you RnD all 6, I'm only saying those are the ones to choose from. I typically only RnD 2 or 3 of the 6.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

and at least 2M HI in the bank

It'll be tough, but I should make it. Got about 900k in Feb. '43 and rising well.

Also means that I had to expend 6M supply to have built the factories.

If you're including the R&D investment, I'm well on my way. I have about 3.5M in the bank right now, and rising slowly. That should change soon as I, at least, am dealing with my early '43 aircraft increases. At least for me I've gotten a bunch of 'new' aircraft to play with. Production went from 10-12/day to about 20-23/day with the new 'toys'.

It is so hard not to build 1000/month Ki44 in the mid game and just dominate easily.

Not even close. I just started getting the 'c' a couple of months ago and am building 'up' to five/day right now. The 'a' production was a mere three/day. Now in a PBEM its probable I'd need some more if the tempo demanded it, but I try to only produce the bare minimum to 'get by'.

with full ARM/VEH pools

Not sure how much is enough here. I'm approaching 200k in the ARM pool, but I've shut off a few. Producing ~400/day now, although that might be a mistake. VEH pool is ~38k with full production expanded over time to 250/day. All three divisions and most regiments have the Type-1 tank at the moment. A few in China and Manchukuo still have lesser models.

I prefer Shindens for that

I've had five R&D sites working from day one. All will likely go straight to production. Of course they still have a long way to complete their research. Is that enough?[:D]

Ok, let me see if I can comment clearly here.
If you are at 900K 9/43, then you should be close if you are watching your MSY production. I don't build much, that saves a lot of HI.

6M supply is earmarked ONLY for building the final fighter factories + engines to support them. Then at least another 4M supply to run the army and air missions.
From 12/7/41 -> 6/1/44 with just your starting supply production you will build over 21M supply. You should actually build closer to 25M supply with normal expansion. So of that 25M, you need to not spend half of it.
How? Watch air missions, don't over build bases, don't overbuild factories. Follow the Mike Solli guidelines. [;)]

You may not be building 1000 Tojo/month, but seen a lot of players do it. Even 300 month means you spent 600K supply. Make sure you won't regret having 300/mo fewer A7M's in 45.


ARM/VEH. You almost cannot have too much, maybe if you ever hit 1M, maybe. Remember, they cannot be bombed. Once made, they are in the bank impervious to the allies. After 9/44 you will be getting a lot of new units AND the operation tempo just goes crazy. And then the SOV activates. You will burn 2000 - 5000 ARM per day.

RnD: I'm of the "Either I'm in or I'm not" crowd on RnD. So, either I build 1 or 2 factories which will be eventually sized to the production that I want of the model (like Jill/Judy) and these I accept I will get on the historical date OR I put 12 -18 RnD on the model because I want to get it meaningfully early. 15 Rnd means when researched I am getting 450/mo, 15/day of that model. I can get Frank in Y43Q3, and 450/mo is pretty close to the number I want. That means I can field a new Frank unit every 4 or 5 days. So not only do I get it early, but I get enough quantity right away to make a difference.
15 RnD on A7M will get it in late '44. 18 RnD on A7M will move it to mid-ish '44 …


That's just me …

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

but my outlook is that they should be gone in favor of the Frank by 7/43

7/43???? Oh, I hope I haven't screwed up here, I won't have the Frank that early. I've got one factory to 30 and another close. The oddball (55 IIRC) is repairing well, but it'll be some time before its finished. The other three R&D I have working I brought in a while later, and they've a way to go. I have the engine bonus to move things along, but... I'm thinking I'll get it the end of '43 beginning '44. Was looking for the George to carry me to that point. I know it may put a bit of a strain on my IJN fighter pilots, but to date I've kept them out of the fight as much as possible. I think I've only one front-line right now in the Solomon's. I've got the Army doing most of the job.

Very achievable, but you need to focus on it. 12x30 RnD will usually do it. And it is very nice to have 6 - 8 groups of Franks operating by Sept '43 when the new Bolts turn up.
Then in Sept/Oct '43 I will put 9x30 RnD on the Frank 'r' model, and build the remaining 3 production factories up to 3x60 or 3x90. That will give me 450 -> 540 /month Frank in mid '44 which is generally what I target for that model.
Frank 'r' is a final model, so it is part of the 3000/mo fighter plan for late '45 and thus there are no real concerns about having 'too many'. the ~500/mo will get increased in '44 to whatever I decide to be my final Frank production run rate: ~600 -> 900 /month.
If I choose the Ki-94 as my 2nd IJA fighter, then lower numbers of Frank r. If I go for the Ki-83 or Ki-201, then likely higher numbers.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
As Whatley says in The Martian, just do the math. [:D] You should see the spreadsheets that materialized when I read that post. [X(]

You ever get out to the valley of the sun and we can swap spreadsheets. [:D]

[Mike Solli]

Hey Pax, for your Ki-115/Toka, what do you like to get your monthly production to? And by what date?

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
As Whatley says in The Martian, just do the math. [:D] You should see the spreadsheets that materialized when I read that post. [X(]

You ever get out to the valley of the sun and we can swap spreadsheets. [:D]

Retirement in 2 years. A couple trips out west are in the pre-planning phase. [;)]