Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A)

[Mike Solli]

Finally got a turn and ran it. Working it now but have a question. Ryuho's air groups were supposed to have arrived but stubbornly remain 2 days out. I figured (incorrectly) that they would just show up on Ryuho. She was sitting at Ambon. Obviously, that's not the case. Where does Ryuho have to go in order to "pick up" her planes? [8|]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Finally got a turn and ran it. Working it now but have a question. Ryuho's air groups were supposed to have arrived but stubbornly remain 2 days out. I figured (incorrectly) that they would just show up on Ryuho. She was sitting at Ambon. Obviously, that's not the case. Where does Ryuho have to go in order to "pick up" her planes? [8|]

In the Intel Report, the "Group Reinforcement Schedule" shows the base of arrival. The fact that it is stuck on two days before arrival might indicate lack of HI or Aircraft/Engine points to finish creating the squadron(s). Check pools for availability of the required aircraft types.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Finally got a turn and ran it. Working it now but have a question. Ryuho's air groups were supposed to have arrived but stubbornly remain 2 days out. I figured (incorrectly) that they would just show up on Ryuho. She was sitting at Ambon. Obviously, that's not the case. Where does Ryuho have to go in order to "pick up" her planes? [8|]

In the Intel Report, the "Group Reinforcement Schedule" shows the base of arrival. The fact that it is stuck on two days before arrival might indicate lack of HI or Aircraft/Engine points to finish creating the squadron(s). Check pools for availability of the required aircraft types.

That's not the case. I have >1.9 million HI in the pool. The fighter unit says 18 A6M2 (68 in the pool) and the TB unit says 9 B5N2 (57 in the pool). This is the carrier whose air group is scheduled to arrive long after the carrier herself. I'm stumped. She'll hit Soerabaja tomorrow, then off to Singapore and finally to Tokyo if the air units don't arrive.

[Lokasenna]

Squads from reserve are supposed to "poof" into existence. Pool status shouldn't matter a whit.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Finally got a turn and ran it. Working it now but have a question. Ryuho's air groups were supposed to have arrived but stubbornly remain 2 days out. I figured (incorrectly) that they would just show up on Ryuho. She was sitting at Ambon. Obviously, that's not the case. Where does Ryuho have to go in order to "pick up" her planes? [8|]

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In the real war the Ryuho was torpedoed by a sub before getting an air group and after repairs operated Hiyo's air group for much of 1943.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Squads from reserve are supposed to "poof" into existence. Pool status shouldn't matter a whit.

Yep. I have this sneaky suspicion that Ryuho may have to be in Tokyo to receive the air groups. I'll let you guys know when (if) she ever gets her air groups.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Squads from reserve are supposed to "poof" into existence. Pool status shouldn't matter a whit.

Yep. I have this sneaky suspicion that Ryuho may have to be in Tokyo to receive the air groups. I'll let you guys know when (if) she ever gets her air groups.

I forget how mine arrived. I think they just arrived automagically.

[Mike Solli]

7 Nov 43

Sub War

Nothing to report.

5 Fleet

Japanese sweep of Umnak met no resistance. A sentai of Sallies bombed Umnak causing minor damage to the airfield.

I have a surface fleet of 4 BB escorted by some DDs headed up there to smack around the Allied bases. Not sure whether to hit Umnak (airfield) or Dutch Harbor (port). They’re still a way out so I’ll ponder it some more.

4 Fleet

The US carrier TF is still hanging around. They launched an attack against Roi-Namur’s airfield with 62 Helldivers, 46 Dauntlesses and 31 Avengers escorted by 25 Hellcats. A total of 34 A6M4cs and 36 Franks rose to meet them shooting down 38 aircraft (6 Hellcats, 10 Helldivers, 10 Dauntlesses and 12 Avengers) for no loss. There was a bit of minor airfield damage. Banzai! Shooting down enemy carrier planes over my base is a great thing!

SE Fleet

There were Allied bombing runs against Aitape (the next target) and Hollandia. The targets were troops and the airfield, respectively. I can see the US carriers to the south of Manus, but they’re content to hang out there. KB2 (Shokaku and the 3 Unryus) are moving around out of range north of the northern tip of PNG ready to pounce should the carriers and/or invasion fleet start moving NW.

SRA

A couple dozen each of Dauntlesses and Beauforts are flying out of Darwin to hit the airfield at Saumlaki. I’m not sure if that’s the target of a future invasion or just a target of opportunity within range of the bombers. I have a garrison unit there that’s going to go away in 7 days. That’s just perfect timing. I’m moving the 65 Bde there as the new garrison. I think I’m going to move some fighters there to get some target practice.

Burma

Sweeps of Akyab and Chittagong found no enemy fighters. Bombing of Cox’s Bazaar caused damage to the airfield there. Akyab’s airfield is currently out of commission.

China

Bombing destroyed 20 squads at Chungking. I anticipate a deliberate assault in 3-4 days. The forts are down to level 2, which is causing a slight increase in damage by my bombers. I’d love to reduce Chungking by the end of the year. We’ll see.

Other Stuff

Reinforcements:
SC Ch-51, ASW
MTB G-153, a target?

In a week I get my first significant ground forces, and not a moment too soon. They include a base force, 10 infantry brigades/regiments, 5 mortar units and an amphibious tank battalion. Three of the mortar units and the tanks combine with units already on map to form independent mixed brigades (IMB) and an amphibious brigade. Some of the IMBs will form with future reinforcements to create new divisions later on.

All are allocated. The base force is going to Taihoku, replacing one that shifted forward recently.

Three infantry units will guard the coast of Burma, where there currently is nothing other than the odd AS unit, if anything.

Four IMBs are going to the Philippines. They will eventually become divisions (100, 102, 103 & 105) and for a decent chunk of the defenses there. (My intent is to defend only Manila, Clark Field and Bataan.

Three mortar units combine with garrison units to become IMBs. Two are in Java and the third is at Singapore. I’m thinking of moving the Singapore IMB to Cocos Island as the garrison there.

The amphibious tank battalion will combine with an infantry unit at Etorofu to make an amphibious brigade. Two other amphibious brigades will go to Christmas Island (IO) and Wakkani.

An IMB will go to Sumatra, probably Sabang.

Finally, there are two independent medium mortar battalions (150mm) that are going to Saumlaki and Koepang, to give the garrisons there a little more punch.

I’m curious to see what kind of hit my armament and vehicle point pools take when these reinforcements arrive.

I shut off some merchant yards along with the remaining xAKs (9x Std-C) and a bunch of TKs. I’ll fine tune it in a couple of days.

I’m still stumped about Ryuho’s air unit’s non-arrival. I hope the carrier doesn’t have to go back to Tokyo for them to arrive.

The Tojo production is over forever. I currently have 7 1/3 sentai of them totaling 274 planes with an additional 207 in the pool. One chutai is in China, 1 in the Southern SRA, with another 2 chutai in the Aleutians. A couple sentai are at Truk with the remainder in Burma. Those in Burma are doing very well, but they usually oppose Hurricanes and P-40Ks. Fortunately, the few more modern fighters in that theater, the P-51A and P-40N5, are at Ledo, which is visited by Franks.

I have 4x30 Ki-44-IIc factories which are currently off. I’ll convert them to something else as needed. The 1x360 Ha-34 factory is on, and I’m still building 3x30 Ki-49-IIb bombers and 1x60 Ki-49-II KAI transports (my only IJAAF transport in production). There are 660 engines in the pool. I need to figure out my final build out of the bombers and transports then make sure there are sufficient engines in the pool. I may just keep the engine factory on through the end of November 1943 then change it to something else (Ha-45?). That would give me an additional 264 engines. That’s the equivalent of an extra 460 Helen transports/bombers. That may be enough. The Peggy becomes operational in 2/44. I need to see how many more transport sentai I get to figure out how many transports I’ll need. I need to do more math before rambling on any more.

[Lokasenna]

Remind me to check on my Ryuho group arrivals in my Tracker...

[specie1]

I'm in my first WITPAE PBEM game as japan. It's late may '42 and i just got CVL Ryuho. It has been accelerated since turn number 2. The only problem is it arrived With NO Airgroups! When i check my airgroup reinforcements the Ryuho groups are scheduled to arrive in 8/43! I'll have to find a solution for the next 14 months!

[Mike Solli]

Yep, that's the dilemma of every Japanese player. The Ryuho's air groups aren't linked with the carrier. They arrive separately. My issue is that they won't actually arrive. They remain 2 days out. I figured they'd just appear on the carrier, but they refuse. Ryuho was at Ambon. So, I'm sending her to Soerabaja (will arrive tomorrow). In no joy, then to Singapore, and finally to the Home Islands. I really hope it doesn't go that far. [8|]

[MakeeLearn]

Mike Solli
I’m still stumped about Ryuho’s air unit’s non-arrival. I hope the carrier doesn’t have to go back to Tokyo for them to arrive.

crsutton

The game allows your changes in production but most OOB arrival schedules are based on the actual historical timetable.

wdolson
In the real war the Ryuho was torpedoed by a sub before getting an air group and after repairs operated Hiyo's air group for much of 1943.

[Mike Solli]

MakeeLearn, that's all true, but with any of the other carriers (with the exception of Ryuho and some CVE TB units that arrive later), if you accelerate the carrier, that carrier's air groups also accelerate with the carrier and arrive at the same time. I also have 4 CVE TB chutai that are arriving soon. I'm curious to see what happens to them.

[MakeeLearn]

Looking in the editor, Ryuho's air groups have a "Delay"= 431101. Whereas most carrier air groups have no Delay. May be different in depending on the scenario.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn



Looking in the editor, Ryuho's air groups have a "Delay"= 431101. Whereas most carrier air groups have no Delay. May be different in depending on the scenario.

Correct, in Scenario 1 it's been that from day 1. It's now 7 Nov 43 and Ryuho's air groups are still showing as 2 days out. They aren't advancing for some reason. I'm trying to figure that out.

[Mike Solli]

Ok, I did some math concerning the Ha-34 engine and the Helen bomber and transport. Here we go:

Some background numbers:

Bomber/sentai/Planes/Pool/notes

Ki-21-IIa Sally/3/78/0/In China, will be there for awhile until it is entirely cleaned up of Chinese troops (Chungking & 2 other armies surrounded).
Ki-21-IIb Sally/3.33/93/23/In China, ditto above.
Ki-48-Ia Lily/1/27/7/In China, ditto above.
Ki-49-IIa Helen/6.33/264/4/Front line service & ASW/Will be replaced by the IIb as numbers dwindle.
Ki-49-IIb Helen/2/58/62/Front line service.

That's what I have to work with. The only IJAAF bomber reinforcements I receive are 4x27 sentai (all restricted) and 15x10 training units (read Kamikaze). Also, I'll have a total of 109 slots withdrawing throughout the remainder of the war. So, other than the 15x10 training units, it's a wash.

It's simpler for the transports. For training I have 2x27 and 7x9 for a total of 117 planes. Not all of them are full, which makes no real difference and they use all the obsolete aircraft. The operational units are 2x27 and 12x9 for a total of 162 aircraft. Right now I'm short 32 and have 24 Helen transports in the pool, so a net -8. I have all the transport units I'll have for the rest of the war. I hope to move the 2 training sentai to the operational side eventually to be able to move stuff around more quickly as my perimeter shrinks and the threats increase.

Here's the plan:

The Ha-34 factory, size 360, will remain on for the remainder of November. There are 660 engines in the pool and the factory will produce 138 more for a grand total of 798 engines. They will be used for the Helen bomber and transport so that's a total of 399 planes for the remainder of the war.

I have a total capacity of 520 operational bombers and 162 (hopefully 216 at some point) transports with a surplus of 96 bombers and a shortage of 8 transports. The 399 extra planes will have to last the rest of the war.

I have 3x30 Helen bomber and 1x60 Helen transport factories. I'm keeping them all on right now. I'll probably turn them off when the supply of engines gets down to ~2-300. At that time I'll reassess to determine how to split up the last engines.

The IJA bombers will be withdrawn from frontline service at some point in 1944 when it becomes too dangerous to use them effectively. Then they'll be used as ASW platforms and eventually, Kamikazes.

[Mike Solli]

As I said earlier, the Ki-44-IIc Tojo production is over. There currently are 7.33 sentai operational for a total of 274 aircraft with a pool of 207. With those numbers, it will be in frontline service (mainly Burma) for a while. Should it's reign decline, I'll pull it out of frontline service for training and eventually, Kamikazes.

The 3x30 factories will remain off and eventually be changed to something else.

[mind_messing]

Four IMBs are going to the Philippines. They will eventually become divisions (100, 102, 103 & 105) and for a decent chunk of the defenses there. (My intent is to defend only Manila, Clark Field and Bataan.

I made the same call once, and in retrospect it was a mistake. Don't neglect Mindanao. The geography works out very nicely for Japan in '44 and '45. With a little development it can become a pretty solid bastion for Japan, and bypassing it to move on bases further north is difficult.

What's even better for Japan is that if the Allies invade to take the island, the Japanese defenders can mount an extended campaign, with a real chance of moving in reinforcements and supply rather than the usual "base falls, defenders wiped out" that happens on single hex islands.

Based on my experiences, the best course of defence for the PI would be to have three interlinked hubs of developed airbases - one on Luzon, one on Mindanao and one in-between the two. I'd use the Manila-Clark-Lingayen-San Fernando railway line to provide the spine of Luzon's airbase network. Cagayan on Mindanao is the big base there as it's the best sited. For the intermediate bases, I'd suggest the two hexes on Leyte as well as Cebu, but there's a serious argument to be made for developing the three rail linked bases on Panay to be the middle link in the PI's airbase network. Panay is perfectly sited - 7 hexes from Davao, 7 hexes from Manila. If it wasn't for them being clear terrain I'd suggest them as the best position to site airbases, but even being clear terrain I'm thinking that they might be the best place to fight for the PI. Anyone care to share their thoughts on that?

Don't forget smaller islands as well, especially the ones off Bataan. Lubang and Calapan can make nice secondary airbases for Luzon, and can be easily supplied from Manila. The two bases on Palawan make a nice backstop for Panay or Cebu, and have nice SLOC's back to Singapore. Mindanao is a little more difficult, but there's Jolo (already built up nicely on Dec 7th) and the other islands in that chain to pester the Allies from.

Basically, I did what you did, and in retropsect it was a mistake. Japan can turn the PI into a serious meatgrinder before the Allies even reach Luzon.

[PaxMondo]

I'll play devil's advocate here.

Mindinao, with no RR, and all bases are coastal. Very susceptible to naval bombardment.
Panay has RR, but all 3 are coastal. Susceptible to naval bombardment.
Luzon has both Cabanatuan and Manila. Cabanatuan is inland and on the RR, Manila is protected by Bataan.

My concern is that with recon and naval bombardment, the allies could neutralize IJ airpower in both Panay and Mindinao and keep it that way. Not suggesting that there are no counters for this, there are. But with limited resources, do you use those counters here or in Hokkaido? I tend to use them in Hokkaido …

[mind_messing]

Mindinao, with no RR, and all bases are coastal. Very susceptible to naval bombardment.

Not exactly true, there is that one base in the centre of the island that's pretty ideal as a CAP hub.

Panay has RR, but all 3 are coastal. Susceptible to naval bombardment.

I actually checked and Panay only has RR between two of the hexes, which changes my value of it downward some.

Luzon has both Cabanatuan and Manila. Cabanatuan is inland and on the RR, Manila is protected by Bataan.

Clark, Bayombong and Tuguegarao are also inland and protected from bombardment.

My concern is that with recon and naval bombardment, the allies could neutralize IJ airpower in both Panay and Mindinao and keep it that way. Not suggesting that there are no counters for this, there are. But with limited resources, do you use those counters here or in Hokkaido? I tend to use them in Hokkaido …

The Allies can and will take Panay and Mindanao if they want it, but Japan can make it a slow, painful affair. Deciding to abandon Mindanao gives them the perfectly platform to take on Luzon, even with it's inland bases.

I think that opposing the Allied advance onto Mindanao is easier for Japan (due to the geography) than opposing the Allied advance on to Luzon (even if the bases are better suited to defending on Luzon).

It's also better for the IJN than nearly anywhere else on the map. You've a close repair shipyard for critical repairs and a big port for the BB's (Manila), and back end repair yards in close sailing (Singapore, Hong Kong). You're next to the fuel from Miri and Balikipapan, so logistics is a breeze. It's easy for supplies and reinforcements to get landed on Luzon and shipped by barge/xAKL or flown southward. There's plenty of ingress points for combatants; from the south-west (based from Balikipapan), the west (based from Miri, though I'd personally turn Puerto Princessa into a advanced base with some AO, AD and AKE for forward operations) and the North (from Manila). Given the narrowness of the waters in the PI, you're likely to get night fights, which the IJN will love, and ships on full speed runs can easily hit a target and get back under CAP before daylight. You can flood the area with floatplanes from AV's hidden in the dozens of unimportant islands that dot the region. It's not that you can't do any of this from Hokkaido, but you need to pick a place to sell the IJN for as many VP's as possible, and the Allies get more ships with every passing month.

Basically, given tc464's line of advance, I think he will move on Mindanao at some point. Optimally, the best position to defend against a push from SWPAC up New Guinea is around Sorong, where the Japanese have nearly 270 degrees within which to launch naval and air attacks, but Allied persistence will win eventually, and at that point it's on to talking about the next step, which is Mindanao.