The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

I've been using 4EB in the Burma campaign of late, and nearly always at 30K or thereabouts. I guessing that John took note of that and set his fighters accordingly.

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

So what do I do tomorrow? He may have sent his carriers out of Singers to a safer port, perhaps leaving Hiyo there. He'll ramp up CAP, probably to uber levels. But I've got to give the port another crack just on the chance of getting lucky with another 500 pounder.

Contrary view, FWIW: cash in your chips, take your winnings, and walk away. With his carriers neutralized for a while and more air devoted to Singapore, use your bombers to hit his ground troops in Sumatra, and hit them hard.

Long term, the success of this raid shows how important your position in Sumatra is. The threat or possibility of denying the use of Singapore to him is a game changer. You've got a chance to bring in more reinforcements with much less risk, and much more promise that they will make the difference between losing and holding Sabang.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John's work load, family life, and game load are major factors, but his focus on offense (as Bullwinkle noted) is also part of the mix. The two USN DD TFs penetrating to Balikpapan and the near-shore vicinity of Japan over the past three turns without detection are symptomatic. Even though he's distracted and busy, he shouldn't be leaving vast areas unpatrolled. You set up your patrol network and leave it in place with little maintenance required. If you're giving defense any thought whatsoever, that is.

I watched the replay again and then checked all the numbers. He had 20 Tonys at 32k. The B-24s were at 10k. All bomb hits were 500 pounders. As best I can tell, Hiyo was not sunk. She did have at least three bombs penetrate into her interior causing "critical damage." Some of the other smaller carriers had at least one bomb hit with similar reports. But the bigger carrier hits were mostly "flight deck" hit reports.

No unusual numbers of aircraft were lost "on the ground/field," further suggesting that Hiyo is afloat.

So what do I do tomorrow? He may have sent his carriers out of Singers to a safter port, perhaps leaving Hiyo there. He'll ramp up CAP, probably to uber levels. But I've got to give the port another crack just on the chance of getting lucky with another 500 pounder.

What I'll probably do is bring in more B-24s and the few B-17s to Sabang. I'll load up Langsa with B-25Cs. I'll set the 25s at 10k and the heavy bombers at 35k. I might use the P-38G squadron at Sabang (moving it to Langsa for proximity) to sweep. I don't think any other fighters have range, but I'll check.

Any thoughts?

On a separate note, should the fact that John has Tonys at Singapore tell me anything important about the status of his airforce? How good is the Tony? It's been years since I've dealt with those aircraft, so I forget how good they are and when they come online.

Heartily agree with your plan to double down!
I wonder if John was so over-confident that he put the carriers in Singapore to do upgrades - which should mean they are stuck there until upgrades are done!

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've been using 4EB in the Burma campaign of late, and nearly always at 30K or thereabouts. I guessing that John took note of that and set his fighters accordingly.

That or perhaps just looking for a dive advantage against any sweep attempts.

The first thing I would do as the IJ player is offload all the carrier fighters to the base so they can add to the CAP. If he does that and brings in additional LB fighters he would definitely have an uber CAP.

I agree that you still need to make another run at the port.

If I had a flush pool of B25s I would bring them in at 1000 feet and damn the flak.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

So what do I do tomorrow? He may have sent his carriers out of Singers to a safer port, perhaps leaving Hiyo there. He'll ramp up CAP, probably to uber levels. But I've got to give the port another crack just on the chance of getting lucky with another 500 pounder.

Contrary view, FWIW: cash in your chips, take your winnings, and walk away. With his carriers neutralized for a while and more air devoted to Singapore, use your bombers to hit his ground troops in Sumatra, and hit them hard.

Long term, the success of this raid shows how important your position in Sumatra is. The threat or possibility of denying the use of Singapore to him is a game changer. You've got a chance to bring in more reinforcements with much less risk, and much more promise that they will make the difference between losing and holding Sabang.

+1

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: jwolf

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

So what do I do tomorrow? He may have sent his carriers out of Singers to a safer port, perhaps leaving Hiyo there. He'll ramp up CAP, probably to uber levels. But I've got to give the port another crack just on the chance of getting lucky with another 500 pounder.

Contrary view, FWIW: cash in your chips, take your winnings, and walk away. With his carriers neutralized for a while and more air devoted to Singapore, use your bombers to hit his ground troops in Sumatra, and hit them hard.

Long term, the success of this raid shows how important your position in Sumatra is. The threat or possibility of denying the use of Singapore to him is a game changer. You've got a chance to bring in more reinforcements with much less risk, and much more promise that they will make the difference between losing and holding Sabang.

+1

+2

[DW]

This is the second time your heavies have put the hurt on his carriers at a critical juncture in the game.

It happened in your last showdown with John too, when your B-17s forced KB to retire from the waters around northern Japan, allowing your carriers to replenish at Shikuka, and saving your invasion of Sakahlin island.

I follow a fair number of AARs, and yours are the only ones where this ever seems to happen.

[Canoerebel]

DW has a pretty remarkable memory. What he's referring to is the Invasion of Hokkaido, Sikhalin Island and the Kuriles in November of 1943 in my WitP match with John. That was at least eight years ago. My invasion got on the ground in good shape, but I was hurting. John had responded fully and aggressively. In some kind of last ditch effort, I transfered in a bunch of those naval LIberators - I think to Toyohara, they were PBY4s, or something like that - and set them to naval strike. They hit several enemy carriers. That single event, as DW noted, turned the tide.

[JeffroK]

Have you been reconing Palembang?

If it appears lightly CAP'd you might get a few TK there?

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for weighing in with the ground strike idea, gents. Despite the cred of those who suggested it and Plus-Oned and Plus-Twoed it, I'm sticking with the plan to try a port strike, even though the odds are long. Here's why:

1. A single hit on an already damaged carrier might prove decisicve, and a single hit is possible even in an uber CAP environment. Sinking a carrier has immense implications down the road.

2. We have a House Rule against 4EB missions against ground troops in non-base hexes. (I shouldn't have agreed to this; I shouldn't ahve agreed to several of the rules, but I did.)

3. Right now the ground war in Sumatra is a strongpoint for the Allies. So I'd be diverting from a mission that could have strategic implications to one that, at best, would have modest tactical implications.

The mission might be an utter failure, but it's worth a shot.

B-24s (at 32k) and RAF Liberators (at 11k) will fly from Sabang. B-25Cs (at 11k) and P-38Gs will fly from Langsa. It's not going to be a huge raid - I don't have that many bombers available - perhaps 20-25 4EB and perhaps 25-30 2EB.

I considered employing the B25Cs at very low levels (1k as HansBolter suggested), but went with the 11k. But I'll mull that over some more.

By the way, my B25C pools are empty too.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Have you been reconing Palembang?

If it appears lightly CAP'd you might get a few TK there?

That's a good idea. I'll save that for a few turns. I'm sure John will think of it and have Palembang capped. But it's worth a shot in a week or so.

[jwolf]

I admit I wasn't aware of your house rules or their implications. In any case, you're the guy in charge! Good luck with the next raid! [:)]

[zuluhour]

I was at work when I read the news, that is sure to get into the oompa loompa psych!
KUDOs!

[Capt. Harlock]

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Raid Over Singapore. 12 B-24s that made quite an impact on Sumatra Campaign and the war.



Oh, that is bloody brilliant!

+1. And given that the first hit IRL on a Japanese carrier was scored in port by a B-25 during the Dolittle Raid, not gamey at all.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for weighing in with the ground strike idea, gents. Despite the cred of those who suggested it and Plus-Oned and Plus-Twoed it, I'm sticking with the plan to try a port strike, even though the odds are long. Here's why:

1. A single hit on an already damaged carrier might prove decisicve, and a single hit is possible even in an uber CAP environment. Sinking a carrier has immense implications down the road.

2. We have a House Rule against 4EB missions against ground troops in non-base hexes. (I shouldn't have agreed to this; I shouldn't ahve agreed to several of the rules, but I did.)

3. Right now the ground war in Sumatra is a strongpoint for the Allies. So I'd be diverting from a mission that could have strategic implications to one that, at best, would have modest tactical implications.

The mission might be an utter failure, but it's worth a shot.

B-24s (at 32k) and RAF Liberators (at 11k) will fly from Sabang. B-25Cs (at 11k) and P-38Gs will fly from Langsa. It's not going to be a huge raid - I don't have that many bombers available - perhaps 20-25 4EB and perhaps 25-30 2EB.

I considered employing the B25Cs at very low levels (1k as HansBolter suggested), but went with the 11k. But I'll mull that over some more.

By the way, my B25C pools are empty too.

For me 32k is a waste of supply and pilot fatigue. 1k would be so disrupted by flak they'd be lucky to hit the hex at all.

I try to keep a formula in mind: five lost 4Es is a lost Fletcher.

But we'll see. I don't remember your HRs on oil bombing, but that's a thing too . . .

[Canoerebel]

No strategic bombing until 1944. That was another HR I shouldn't have agreed to.

I think you're right about the B-24s. I may reset them to 20k or 25k.

[GetAssista]

That was a brilliant 12 plane raid, congratulations! Never was so much owed by so many to so few(c)

Luckily you did not have one more house rule preventing 4Es from port attacks [:)]

[Canoerebel]

1/21/43

Here's the rest of the report on the day's activities:

Raid over Singapore: If you happen to just be checking in, a raid by B-24Ds over Singapore struck paydirt, damaging more than a half-dozen enemy carriers, including Hiyo with a "heavy fires/heavy damage" report. More details on the previous page.

Battle of Sumatra: Some heavy Japanese air raids against Langsa, including a host of Kates (might be carrier squadrons re-based temporarily?). Damage done was light and completely repaired. Langsa is a level four airfield with alot of engineers and aviation support. This will be important for tomorrow's raids vs. Singers.

With the possible window open to bring stuff from India and elsewhere to Sabang, alot of shipping is ready to go (pre-loaded tankers and xAKs will depart Colombo tonight; lots of other shipping will leave a variety of ports all over the place over the next few days). Incoming will be alot of supply, a fair amount of fuel, some AA units, a Carabiner unit (with alot of Stuart tanks), and probably 9th Aussie Division from Aden. I'm also moving forward three AA units from Sabang to Langsa.

What does John do now? Tough puzzle for him to solve. On the ground, he's at least temporarilly blocked south of Langsa. He only has three divisions in the hex. I don't know where the others went. He probably needs six to eight to have a chance here. At sea, he's probably stymied what with KB out of position and possibly damaged for awhile. He can't invade Sabang with it's 960 mines plus ships and aircraft. He might try an invasion of Langsa, but I think that's a tough job what with Allied air and naval power in the vicinity. I'm thinking on that possibility though. The best chance seems to be in the air, so I'll continue to work the fighters as efficiently as I can.

Battle of Burma: John had a good day here. All Allied attacks stymied, including Taung Gyi. John heavily bombed the Chinese unit and air transported in part of 2nd Raiding Regiment. The disruption to the Chinese was high enough to halt the attack. The effort expended here by John tells me he didn't notice the approach of the Chinese and that he doesn't want to lose this base. Most favorable for the Allies was the attack in the hex south of Magwe. This came off at 1:1 and destroyed 94 Jap squads. That's a high number and indicates problems. No attacks slated for tomorrow. The Allied units in that hex are low on supply.

Raiders: The four USN DD raiders that hit Balipapan started their sprint for safety and weren't molested. One is already in the IO and possibly out of danger. The other three will exit the Java Sea by Bimi tonight. Over near Japan, the three USN DD raider TF was lit up by nav search (10/10 detection). This TF was on patrol just four hexes from the Japanese mainlaind! John's licking his chops, so they'll split up and retire by steaming at flank spead NE of Iwo, hoping to make open ocean. The goal of making John attend to defense and to spread out his air a bit is probably met.

[JeffroK]

Whoops

Dan thinks he's bad on a computer!

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I'd recommend against a major Naval effort, get the ground troops into a threatening position and then see whats at Coal Harbour.

Get too pretty with multiple TF & raids and something WILL go wrong.

I think you intend this for JockeMeister's AAR? Coal harbour is not an issue here.