OT: Would the USSR be defeated if Japan attacked?

[Ametysth]

Stalin wouldn't have given up, that much is certain. He had fought even more desperate battles in the Russian Civil war and back then he had faced pretty much every victorious nation from WWI on Russian soil and endured their attacks.

But if Japan would have decided to go after Russia, best moment would have been... Dec 7th 1941! After Stalin had heard from his Sorge network that Japan wasn't going to attack, he pulled Siberian troops to the west for a counter attack against the Germans in front of Moscow. This attack started in the very same day that Japanese attacked PH (about 16 hours before) and in few days it had the exhausted Germans retreating first time in the war. Most of Soviet forces and almost every one of their first rate tanks tied in that attack, Japanese could have made some gains.

Even so, Japanese army wasn't capable of taking on the Russians. Without their Navy they lacked mobility and artillery. In Eastern Front, there never was a 'front' as imagined in the west. 100 divisions Hitler had sent to the Barbarossa were extremely thin in the ground when they got to the eastern most part of their conquest and only fast, mobile armored formations and their advances kept Russians from counter attacking, cutting them to pieces and surrounding them. Japanese army was an infantry army and it would have been easy to defeat if they had pushed far inside Russia. I think the Soviet Manchuria offensive 1945 is good example what would have happened, if Japanese had attacked. Fast armored formations would have gone straight past their forward positions and surrounded them while artillery (Russians love their guns and even 1941 they had first rate artillery and lots of it) would have prevented them from massing their troops and tied them down.

As for the Land Lease, the problem US would have had, if Japan attacked Russia, was how to sent that help. Most of the LL help was transported by Soviet freighters across the Pacific. Japanese knew about them, but didn't attack them, even if they transported weapons to use against their allies. If this route was blocked by Japanese attack, the routes would have been limited to UK-Murmansk convoys and over the Caucasus route. This would have made a significant impact to Russian abilities as important part of their armored units mobility were US built trucks and their Air Force was (for 1942-1943 at least) pretty dependent of P-39's, P-40's and Hurricanes to stop more advanced German planes.

[stuman]

ORIGINAL: SimHq Tom Cofield

First off it would be very hard to say what would have happened if Japan had attacked from the East. Depending on the date of the attack there is a chance of success.

Lets face it, when Hitler first attacked Stalin became desperate; he was close to the breaking point by mid August of 1941. If Japan had attacked at that point it may have been enough to tip Stalin and the Soviet Union over the edge. In the border skirmishes prior to WW2 the Soviets weren't dealing with the disaster on the German Front. The entire army was in shambles.

Even if the Japanese hadn't broken through and taken large chunks of Siberian territory (which I doubt they really wanted) what it would have done is put increasing pressure on a tenuous supply situation in the Soviet Union. The Russians had a stable eastern area so they could concentrate on fighting the Germans. If they had to constantly keep these far flung units supplied there would have been some real logistic difficulties fighting the Wehrmacht. I'm not sure that the rebuilding of the Soviet Army in the west would have occurred if a large percentage of the equipment had to go east to resupply and re-equip units fighting the Japanese. Even if 30% of the supplies were diverted that would have been significant. It may have been enough to prevent the resupply of Leningrad in 1942 or it could have led to the loss of the Caucuses to the Germans.

One more thing to consider. One of the reasons the US supplied Stalin as much as he did was because he was fighting a common enemy in Germany. Yes there was some lend lease supplies prior to the US Declaration of War but most of them didn't start until after the US became involved in the war. IF the Japanese didn't attack the US there is some doubt as to the involvement of America. FDR would have been involved in some ways but I doubt he would have gotten the US to declare war on Japan or Germany just because Japan attacked Russia. Even if the US became involved I doubt it would have happened prior to mid 1942. Would the British have held the Middle East in that instance? What would Turkey have done. They were on the fence but I don't doubt they would have come in on the Axis side if it looked like Germany would take the entire middle East. Japan may not have wanted oil from the Caucuses but they might have been able to use some of the oil from the middle east.

It is all academic. Physically the Soviets could have stopped Japan in any assault but there would have been a drain on the Soviets that I am not sure they could overcome. Even if the Japanese failed to take a single inch of territory what would have happened is that the manpower pool that the Soviets relied upon to prevent the total collapse of the Soviet Empire would have been diminished. It may not have guaranteed a Japanese victory but it would have made it more possible for the Germans to win.

My thoughts exactly. Great minds think alike and all of that. You obviously are both a gentleman and a scholar [:)]

[fbs]

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl

If "It's not really your logic..", then why did you say this?

I mean that any Japanese attacks, either against USSR or against USA/UK/DEI, don't make any logical sense to any of us, including me, because the chances of achieving a military victory for Japan were close to none. Additionally, continuation of the war in China was also illogical, as there was also no chance for a military victory.

From a Western point of view and with the knowledge we have, the only alternative for Japan was to evacuate China. That is my logic.

I'm just saying that we can't assume that the Japanese leaders were bound to think the same way. Their strategy was flawed, their control of their Army was limited and the information they had was incomplete; plus, they had a "japanese" way of thinking, which I cannot really understand. Given all that, and given that they seriously planned to go after the USSR, my point is that there was some chance that they could have done that, as illogical as it is for us now.


Thanks,
fbs

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: fbs

ORIGINAL: castor troy

besides the fact that the Russians would probably have wiped the floor with the Japanese, what would the Japanese have gained if they would win? What they conquered in the SRA wasn´t available in the Russian held territories.

Keep in mind that the Japanese seriously considered going after the USSR. It's not for resources, but for self-protection. The strategic reasoning for the Army to go after Manchukuo and China was to create a buffer against Communism. When Germany got their huge gains in 1941, and everybody from Churchill to Roosevelt thought that the soviets would fall, there were several people in Japan that advocated to go after the USSR because otherwise they wouldn't be able to reap a share of Hitler's victories. And, remember, the Caucasus also had a lot of oil.

If I was in the Japanese shoes by 2nd semester 1941, the USSR and its oil would look like a much more attractive target than taking on the might of the USA/UK/Netherlands/Australia/New Zealand. They Japanese were no fools -- it is recorded in several high-level conferences they didn't expect to win a war against the USA, but were looking to negotiate a settlement from a favorable position.


Thanks,
fbs

In late 41 it wasn´t a question about self protection anymore, the major demand Japan had were resources and OIL. And those things could only be conquered in the SRA. The Caucasus may have had a lot of oil but speaking about the Caucasus in regards to Japan´s oil needs is pretty much pointless IMO as you won´t have much of a chance to get oil from the Caucasus to Japan. And if it would be possible you still would lack the resources from the SRA that Japan needs. IMO the Japanese would have been fools if they would have thought that they would get enough oil from the Caucasus if Russia would fall.

And it´s exactly like you´ve said, they knew they couldn´t win against the US (guess they had good chances against the rest of the Western Allies), but back then the thinking of getting a good position out of negotiations after they whipe the floor with their enemies in the first 6 months wasn´t that far off IMO.

[chesmart]

Castor last year on Tank Net there was a similar debate regarding the war. One of the posters came up with a map of Russian railways and their carriage capacity and it showed had Moscow fallen the RR capacity of the Soviet Union would have been heavily affected. The debate was very heated and inconclusive as usual when you discuss hypothetical scenarios but was very informative regarding soviet transportation capacities. For example the Railway capacity to the Far East was very vulnerable and the carrying ability very limited. Most of the high capacity RR which was very limited in numbers went to and finished in Moscow and there were very limited interconnections between cities.

Regarding why attack USSR when they know they are going to lose, do you think they expected to win against the USA? The USA on its own had something like 40+% of the world GDP a larger population and unlimited resources plus it was not at war. Don’t you think that was more suicidal than going to war with Russia in 1941?

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: che200

Castor last year on Tank Net there was a similar debate regarding the war. One of the posters came up with a map of Russian railways and their carriage capacity and it showed had Moscow fallen the RR capacity of the Soviet Union would have been heavily affected. The debate was very heated and inconclusive as usual when you discuss hypothetical scenarios but was very informative regarding soviet transportation capacities. For example the Railway capacity to the Far East was very vulnerable and the carrying ability very limited. Most of the high capacity RR which was very limited in numbers went to and finished in Moscow and there were very limited interconnections between cities.

Regarding why attack USSR when they know they are going to lose, do you think they expected to win against the USA? The USA on its own had something like 40+% of the world GDP a larger population and unlimited resources plus it was not at war. Don’t you think that was more suicidal than going to war with Russia in 1941?

no, I don´t think they expected to "win" but it´s pretty much historically proved (isn´t it?) that they thought that if they cause "enough trouble" to the Americans, means winning long enough and inflicting big enough numbers of casualties in troops and materials then it could perhaps be possible that the Americans would negotiate and that the negotiations would lead to an acceptable situation for the Japanese (which probably would be for them that they gain some ground). As everyone knows it turned out different.

[chesmart]

In hinsight was it realistic from an economic point of view ?

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: che200

In hinsight was it realistic from an economic point of view ?

no it wasn´t and they definetely knew that they couldn´t win it from an economic point of view.

[chesmart]

So do we agree that both courses where sucidal for japan and there was no chance of winning a war singlehanedly against either USSR and USA ?

P.S. Really like your Sig one of my favourite carriers !

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: che200

So do we agree that both courses where sucidal for japan and there was no chance of winning a war singlehanedly against either USSR and USA ?

P.S. Really like your Sig one of my favourite carriers !

I guess we mostly agree, yes. [:)] But I´m also one of those that think that there´s always the small chance that it wouldn´t be suicide. The odds are very poor but the chances were there. I´m not talking about the Japanese overrunning continental US but there is always one thing to remember. Would we discuss the German situation before the war for example and would the Nazis not have achieved more than they gained ground in WWI for example, noone would really be surprised. But look at what they really achieved. This was far more than any of us would give them as a change. Same goes for the Japanese. The end result, well...

[Raverdave]

The other point to consider is that by attacking the USSR the IJN is effectively sidelined, apart from blockading ports.  Thats a fair percentage of your military might just left flapping in the breeze.

[Mike Scholl]

couple of points to keep in mind when considering Japan's "options".

The IJA had always considered China and Russia to be their true enemies.  Possibly because these were the enemies they could get at without being annoyingly dependent on the IJN to get them there.

The IJN had always considered the Western Naval Powers to be the true threat.  Possibly because foreign navies had the ability to actually sail into Japanese Home Waters, possibly to justify expensive naval construction.

Both had to face the reality that the War in China had led to embargoes of many strategic materials (especially oil) without which Japan could not pursue any conquests for long.  Japan's civilian population was placed on "wartime rationing" seven months BEFORE Pearl Harbor.  Even the IJA had recognized the need to ensure a new supply of these strategic materials was paramount if Japan was not to "wither on the vine".  In a nutshell, the need to secure a new source of oil and other resources is the driving force in all Japanese considerations of when to go to war and whom to go to war against.

[chesmart]

Raver Yes thats why the army wanted to go north and the navy south.

Castor the axis achieved those results because of the arrogance of prewar politicians and politically appointed officers who thought that the lowly japanese were inferior and that germany would be contained like WW1 (French thinking)

[PresterJohn001]

Play World in Flames the boardgame or Matrix computer game when it comes out and try out some what ifs [8D]

[chesmart]

Waiting for it[:)]