"Battle for Moscow 1941-1943"

[BigDuke66]

No Rasputitsa in October? All looks very dry.

About rail repair, I see no guerrilla for the Soviets so those points would be used to convert conquered rail but I think that's job of the rail repair units. I see the rail repair points that each player gets more like small groups fixing a rail blown up by guerrilla and not converting 5km of rail to the German gauge.

About tank strength, I wonder how the scenario would run with German tank strength would be closer to the real numbers.
Taking some numbers from the book "Germany and the Second World War" the average strength is around 56% what seems OK compared to the missing percentage of 40% reported 25.8.1941 and 53% reported on 5.9.1941 OK when also considering that losses continued and a big replacement allocation of 323(316) tanks arrived.
Also 2 fresh PzD(2. & 5. with 450 tanks) arrived at HG Mitte in time for Operation Taifun.

[briantopp]

ORIGINAL: BigDuke66

No Rasputitsa in October? All looks very dry.

About rail repair, I see no guerrilla for the Soviets so those points would be used to convert conquered rail but I think that's job of the rail repair units. I see the rail repair points that each player gets more like small groups fixing a rail blown up by guerrilla and not converting 5km of rail to the German gauge.

About tank strength, I wonder how the scenario would run with German tank strength would be closer to the real numbers.
Taking some numbers from the book "Germany and the Second World War" the average strength is around 68% what seems OK compared to the missing percentage of 40% reported 25.8.1941 and 53% reported on 5.9.1941 OK when also considering a big replacement allocation of 323(316) tanks and 2 fresh PzD(2. & 5.) arriving at HG Mitte.

Rasputitsa: (this is a bit of a "spoiler" -- don't read on if you like to be surprised in scenarios). In an earlier discussion on this board I tried to figure out how to make different weather states uncertain. In other words, to create three-way possibilities like "dry 33%, light mud 33%, mud 33%". This is how my reference game, "Guderian's Blitzkreig II", works. The odds shift over time but you can never be sure of the weather. This creates some uncertainty and is different from game to game and so leads to variety. But doing this requires hundreds and hundreds of events over the course of a big game like this and I haven't tried that yet (there are some oddities and uncertainties in the way the TOAW events editor needs to be set up to make this possible, as well, as we discussed on this board). So, the weather states are hardwired, as follows:

Turns 1-7 dry weather
Turns 8-9 light mud (starts Oct 25th)
Turns 10-15 mud (Nov 1)
turns 16-19 light freeze (Nov 22)
turns 20-22 medium freeze (Dec 6)
turns 25-60 deep freeze (Dec 23)

These states reverse in the spring of 1942, play out again in the fall of 1942, and one more time in reverse in the spring of 1943.

I've read about rain bogging roads in some parts of this theatre as early as Oct 7th, which is turn 3 in this scenario. But we need an average start for each of these weather states that makes sense for the whole theatre. I'm using an average of the variable weather table in GBII. Do you have a better source? I guess you're proposing there be fewer dry weather turns and that weather effects start earlier.

Rail repair: It gets tedious to repair the rails but you're right -- it would be more accurate to deploy engineers and take rail repair off auto pilot.

Tank strength: I'm basing the start-up numbers on Jentz's "Panzertruppen" do you have a better source?

All the best
bt

[BigDuke66]

I expected it around 13th October but your right when I look thru the "Tagesmeldungen der Operations-Abteilung des GenStdH" I see sometimes reports that differ a lot, on area reports is dry roads another area reports roads are bottomless. I couldn't track specific dates down but overall the muddy time was in October and in November the first frost arrived so maybe shorten the dry weather and move everything else a bit closer to the start would fit better.


For the tank strength I don't really have better numbers I just took the numbers from a table in "Germany and the Second World War" Volume 4(that is the table that comes after the one you used, check out your table of contents as the German & English page numbers aren't comparable) that shows the tank strength on the east front.
They started with 3648 and are down to 2044(including the big replacement shipment) in October what sets them to 56% of the starting strength, plus 2 new & fresh PzD that come in with together 450 tanks.

Your numbers look like the starting numbers of Operation Barbarossa, check out this:
http://www.orbat.com/site/ww2/drleo/011 ... -06-22.htm

What gives a headache are the numbers for Panzer I losses listed on your table(22.6.1941-31.1.1942) with 450 tanks lost and 42 as replacement but the table from the link only shows 181 allocated so losses were twice as high as Panzer I were ever on the east front at all, OK numbers for 2., 5., 15. Panzer Divisions & 5. Leichte Division (mot) are not complete so maybe they had the majority of Panzer I but again the your table is only for the east front and 2. & 5. Panzer Division were at home when Barbarossa started and 15. Panzer Division & 5. Leichte Division were used in Africa at that time.

Anyhow on your table you can see what and how many tanks were lost but also the replacement they got, maybe toying around with those numbers and the starting numbers brings you close to what was on the east front in October and you can then adjust the Panzer Divisions(except 2. & 5. who seem to have arrived in full strength).

PS When you have those numbers a would raise it by X% has usually the reported losses were too high as tanks that were first consider lost sometimes got salvaged later and got back to the unit but the loss report was for sure not corrected, that should really bring you close to the starting numbers for Operation Taifun.

[BigDuke66]

I was too interested myself so I played a bit with the numbers:
The calculation is base on "Germany and the Second World War: Volume IV: The Attack on the Soviet Union"
http://www.amazon.com/Germany-Second-Wo ... 083&sr=1-1

On the east front on 1st October 1941:
Panzer I = -77(Yes indeed more losses than tanks on the front + replacements)
Panzer II & IIF = 490
Panzer III = 676
Panzer 38(t) = 227
Panzer IV = 246
Panzerbefehlsw. = 98
Sturmgeschütz III = 202
Panzer 35(t) = ?(No losses or replacements listed)

Percentage of starting strength:
Panzer I = -27,40%(Yes indeed more losses than tanks on the front + replacements)
Panzer II & IIF = 65,95%
Panzer III = 69,05%
Panzer 38(t) = 34,87%
Panzer IV = 55,41%
Panzerbefehlsw. = 68,53%
Sturmgeschütz III = 80,80%
Panzer 35(t) = ?(No losses or replacements listed)

So if you use the percentage on the German tank units and round it up you should get pretty close to my numbers, maybe a bit more but as I said that seems OK anyway as you can see in case of Panzer I either the loss reports were simply overstated or some numbers are wrong.

Good would also be to place the big replacement shipment for October directly into the Pool, maybe lower it a bit as I don't know how much HG Mitte got of these:
October 1941 replacement:
Panzer I = 0
Panzer II & IIF = 1
Panzer III = 187
Panzer 38(t) = 72
Panzer IV = 56
Panzerbefehlsw. = 0
Sturmgeschütz III = 7


I'm not sure how to simulate the Panzerbefehlswagen, until now it looks to me the those with a real armament(5cm KwK) came not until 1942, before that they only seem to have had a MG 34, but as they were command tanks something stronger should be used to simulate there effect on the whole unit.


Another idea is that you may alter TOE a German Panzer Division to this "ideal":
http://www.lexikon-der-wehrmacht.de/Zus ... sion41.htm
As you see no
-Panzer I(well except the Panzerbefehlswagen maybe),
-Panzer 35(t)(I read they were phased out in late 1941 but saw action again as they were used for the 22. Panzerdivision and so appeared on the east front again)
-Panzer 38(t)(was still produced until July 1942 but from the last order of 500 only 321 were delivered before contract was canceled so they should stay longer in the game)

[briantopp]

Turn 7 16th army (+ 29th-30th corps): 16th army is a long way from its supply and is feeling it, and so presses slowly towards Volochek. 29-30th corps form up to advance on Kalinin.

[briantopp]

Turn 8 16th army/29-30th corps: 16th army creeps forward. 29-30th corps have arrived at Kalinin -- supply position is critical.

[briantopp]

Turn 9 16th army/29-30th corps: Fighting proceeds. I have spotted a surprise Soviet unit to the rear of 29-30th corps and will need to reach south for a unit to deal with it.

[briantopp]

Turn 10 16th army + 29/30th corps: Kalinin falls. Soviet Kalinin Front had a surprise up its sleeve, staging an attack into 29-30th corps's rear, launching from Torzhok. A motorised division needed to be rushed from 3rd panzer division to contain this Soviet counter-attack. My plan, once the scattered Soviet units in this area are dealt with, is to link up 16th army and 29th-30th corps at Torzhok and to form a defensive line.

[briantopp]

Turn 11 16th army-29-30th corps: Mud weather is settling in, and so progress is miniscule.

[briantopp]

Turn 7 9th and 4th armies: As the turn begins, 3rd panzer army is beginning its advance towards Yokokolamsk, and 4th panzer group is launching its attack towards Kaluga.

[briantopp]

Turn 8 9th and 4th armies: The Soviets are putting up some determined resistance on this line. To the south, Soviet 50th army attacked in force on a fairly broad front, penetrating the German line (I am counter-attacking in this screen capture.) 4th panzer is fighting a battle against a substantial armoured force at Kaluga. Soviet Western Front launched a determined attack on the seam between 9th and 4th armies. 3rd panzer group is grinding away at the northern end of the Mozhaisk position.

[briantopp]

Turn 9 9th and 4th army: During its portion of turn 8, the Soviets gave 9th army a serious bloody nose, destroying several German infantry divisions. 4th army assumed more of the line and is counter-attacking. 3rd panzer group is making slow progress blasting the Soviets out of their prepared positions in the northern section of the defense line.

[briantopp]

Turn 10 9th and 4th armies: 50th army's offensive in the south is finally stopped. Kaluga falls. At great cost, 3rd panzer army, 9th army and 4th army are blasting through the Moshaisk position.

[briantopp]

Turn 11 9th and 4th armies: Progress has ground to a creep as mud season constricts supply and mobility, and aims combat effectiveness.

[briantopp]

Turn 7 2nd panzer group (2nd army's battle in the Bryansk pocket has become a sideshow so I'll stop following it in this AAR). A thin screen of units is forming up to cover the long, long right flank. 2nd panzer group is reorganized and preparing to press northeast towards Tula.

[briantopp]

Turn 8 2nd panzer group: with light mud warning of the looming transport crisis and the entire panzer group supplied along a single road (and broken railroad) I am proceeding cautiously, looking for a defensible jumpoff point for when the mud abates.

[briantopp]

Turn 9 2nd panzer group: A weak Soviet counter-offensive at Shegekino will need to be pushed back.

[briantopp]

Turn 10 2nd panzer group: Mud and no supply makes for a creeping offensive that takesw no new ground. Tula is only four hexes away but not wise to attack now.

[briantopp]

Turn 11 2nd panzer group: The panzer group is basically immobilized. Soviet units are probing the open flank.

[briantopp]

ORIGINAL: BigDuke66

I was too interested myself so I played a bit with the numbers:
The calculation is base on "Germany and the Second World War: Volume IV: The Attack on the Soviet Union"
http://www.amazon.com/Germany-Second-Wo ... 083&sr=1-1

On the east front on 1st October 1941:
Panzer I = -77(Yes indeed more losses than tanks on the front + replacements)
Panzer II & IIF = 490
Panzer III = 676
Panzer 38(t) = 227
Panzer IV = 246
Panzerbefehlsw. = 98
Sturmgeschütz III = 202
Panzer 35(t) = ?(No losses or replacements listed)

Percentage of starting strength:
Panzer I = -27,40%(Yes indeed more losses than tanks on the front + replacements)
Panzer II & IIF = 65,95%
Panzer III = 69,05%
Panzer 38(t) = 34,87%
Panzer IV = 55,41%
Panzerbefehlsw. = 68,53%
Sturmgeschütz III = 80,80%
Panzer 35(t) = ?(No losses or replacements listed)

So if you use the percentage on the German tank units and round it up you should get pretty close to my numbers, maybe a bit more but as I said that seems OK anyway as you can see in case of Panzer I either the loss reports were simply overstated or some numbers are wrong.

Good would also be to place the big replacement shipment for October directly into the Pool, maybe lower it a bit as I don't know how much HG Mitte got of these:
October 1941 replacement:
Panzer I = 0
Panzer II & IIF = 1
Panzer III = 187
Panzer 38(t) = 72
Panzer IV = 56
Panzerbefehlsw. = 0
Sturmgeschütz III = 7


I'm not sure how to simulate the Panzerbefehlswagen, until now it looks to me the those with a real armament(5cm KwK) came not until 1942, before that they only seem to have had a MG 34, but as they were command tanks something stronger should be used to simulate there effect on the whole unit.


Another idea is that you may alter TOE a German Panzer Division to this "ideal":
http://www.lexikon-der-wehrmacht.de/Zus ... sion41.htm
As you see no
-Panzer I(well except the Panzerbefehlswagen maybe),
-Panzer 35(t)(I read they were phased out in late 1941 but saw action again as they were used for the 22. Panzerdivision and so appeared on the east front again)
-Panzer 38(t)(was still produced until July 1942 but from the last order of 500 only 321 were delivered before contract was canceled so they should stay longer in the game)

Thomas Jentz in "Panzertruppen" (Schiffer Military History 1996) on page 206 offers a quite detailed breakdown of each panzer division as they stood in September -- admittedly a bit earlier than this campaign begins. He then has some tables on pages 210-211 that suggest that as least some of the divisions were rebuilt back to where they were in September before the start of "Typhoon". And on pages 212-213 he gives details TO&Es for all the additional formations entering the theater through to June 1942. That's what I've been using. I'll compare the totals to your numbers and see what kind of adjustment might work. I like the unit-by-unit accuracy of Jentz's book.