Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Bullwinkle58]

Are you guys playing with any of the beta patches? If so, Oz industry can be turned off now and fuel can be stockpiled without loss at Sydney and Brisbane.

Also, when you get to China, I think there's some damaged industry you don't want to repair?

Can you tell we all want a turn run? [:)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Also give base-building orders at PM and Rabaul.

What for you do this? These two places are going to get steamrolled in short order, why bother building them further? I'd concentrate on the forts and evacuating fragments of useful units, were I you.

[Canoerebel]

Oops, I'm only building forts there; no base building. A typo that didn't slip past an observant Yankee eye.

Bullwinkle, thanks for the suggestion. I've turned off repairs for all damaged China faclities (didn't realize there were so many - I think most of them at Changsha and Chungking).

I'm not sure about Oz, yet. I need to look through and see what's what.

[Canoerebel]

I've just sent the turn to Chez (aka Steve), so we'll have a turn as soon as his schedule gives him some time.

This is Scenario Two and Steve is an experienced player. However, he hasn't played Scenario Two before and I don't know if he's by nature aggressive or not. For now, I'm going to err on the side of assuming I will face a Q-Ball-sized onslaught. With that in mind, here are my general strategic objectives early in the war:

1. I will assume that Steve will target either India or Oz. Of those two, India may be the most important, so I'll give her alot of attention. In particular, I want to get supply there ASAP.

2. I'm sending many USAAF squadrons to Capetown. Upon arrival, I'll allocate them between India and Oz.

3. In trying to figure out whether Oz or India will be the target, guessing wrong would be a disaster. I'd hate to have sent all my troops to the one, only to have the other targeted. And yet, splitting between the two could leave both too weak to stave off a Q-Ball-sized assault by 15-20 IJA divisions. With that in mind, I do not want to leave defeat to the chance outcome of a 50/50 guess about his target. Instead of trying my best to guess right, I want to fight the war on my terms as best I can.

4. To conquer Oz or India, Steve will need a sizeable army and, for a considerable period, the KB. He'll need to get started early (probably January if Oz is the target; February or March if it's going to be India). I want the Allies to be in a position to launch a major invasion of the Kuriles and Sikhalin Island by spring of '42 if the Japanese indeed move on India or Oz. Such an invasion is pure folly under most circumstances, because the Japanese can easily take control of the sea and air....but to do so requires commitment of major combat ships and carriers. I don't think the Japanese can successfully prosecute an auto-victory maneuver against Oz or India without the KB, so I want to force Steve to make the choice of carrying through with his invasion down south only at the risk of allowing the Allies to get a major hold on his northern perimeter. If he diverts his carriers to NoPac, he can destroy the Allied troops there, but it makes it very difficult for him to impose a blockade of Oz or India.

5. I don't want Japan to get a lodgement in the western Aleutians in late '42 or early '42, because that would break the LOC between any Allied beachheads in the Kuriles/Sikhalin and Achorage/Kodiak/Dutch Harbor. Thus the Allies intend to occupy the western Aleutians ASAP, along with committing some combat ships and carriers to the region early in the war.

6. Most of the Pacific Isles are deemed expendable. I will try to secure Midway, the Hawaiin chain, Pago Pago, and New Zealand as the game develops. (Hawaii, of course, is already strongly defended, but needs more.)

7. I will try to use combat ships and troops in the DEI to slow Japan just a bit, or at least to force Steve to protect his amphibious TFs. I will also try to create a roadblock somewhere sensible - probably Singapore.

8. Ceylon, Diego Garcia, Port Blair, and Socatra will get enough troops (something on the order of an Indian brigade) to make sure the enemy can't just waltz right through, but not enough to stop a serious attack.

9. China: No offensive plans here. I want to protect the Chinese army and ensure that I have a good MLR.

[obvert]

As a new player I'm curious why the build-up in the Aleutians? Is there a threat if they are taken? Or is it that you'd like to use them offensively and as staging, supply, and refueling areas for ops near the Home Islands?

[bradfordkay]

Steve is deliberately aggressive. By this I mean that he moves in a well-planned way. Only once have I seen him "throw a long bomb" - in our first (CHS) game Halsey's carriers caught some large MLs (CMs in this game) loaded with troops off Howland Island in the very early days. It looked to me like they were headed for Canton Island. Instead they went to visit Davey Jones...

If you are going to protect only one major SoPac island group I would choose Fiji instead of Samoa. On Fiji you have two bases side by side that can be built into L9 airbases. Having them side by side means that he will have a hard time shutting you down in that location and you will have a great place for your 4E bombers to fly from should he capture the New Hebrides. JMO...

[Bullwinkle58]

Couple of thoughts (not that you asked):

1. Alfred has impressed on me several times in talks we've had about an Oz auto-vic campaign to remember that Oz can be strat bombed for points, and India can't be. (I think I have that right.) The LOD for Oz is south; a Japanese player can hang his bombers north and hit Sydney industry over and over, bleeding VPs without activation. Oz has the native Whir. facotry eventually, but Oz needs fighters and AA pretty early if he is going to attack there. Strat bombing VPs are cheap in loss terms for him.

2. India needs fewer troops if you commit to using the navies to slow or stop the invasion. In particular, the Dutch have great CLs that I usually waste fruitlessly around Java. I'd get them moving now to Royal Navy-land, maybe stick them in Aden, and sacrifice them in attacking transports if and when. Never forget that x4 is the Allies' best friend.

3. I know you loves you some Kuriles, but can you really get much done there in early 1942? He doesn't really need carriers to stop you. His torpedoes work, and his subs are two days' sail from fuel and torpedoes. He could flood the northern seas and use Betties to tear you up if you go in there early. And if I were going for an auto-vic I'd let you go in there, for awhile at least.

4. I have absolutley no data, but I have a tingle in my forebrain that he's not going to do any of the things you're worried about. He knows you'll expect him to, and the game is getting mature enough that the obvious early counters are known. I don't know with hom he corresponds, but you might see something new. Don't know what, but if it were me I'd be looking for something like a WC carrier raid on SF or San Diego in late December. Something along those lines. Something you'd think was crazy, but, say, Nemo wouldn't.

[desicat]

The way I see it is Japan is forced to keep to a tight schedule if auto-victory is to be achieved. If you can get them off schedule somewhere it is difficult for them to adjust on the fly without throwing timetables out of whack. In your last two games Wake Island could have caused Japan some problems with some risk to assets on your end. Any chance you will contest with 2nd tier assets?

I also liked your deep destroyer raids last game, they too add distractions, are you going to try this tactic again?

[Canoerebel]

Obvert: The Aleutians are important if the Allies wish to take the Kuriles and Sikhalin Island or create the appearance of such a threat. I've done the latter in my current game with Q-Ball [to what effect I don't yet know because we're still early). I did the former in WitP to very good effect. In AE, I'd say it's nearly impossible to pursue such a strategy until late '43 or '44 with one exception - if the Japanese commit the KB to a very lengthy campaign far, far away (like Oz or India), I think the Allies could create quite a quandary - by seizing Paramushiro, Onnekotan, Shikuka, and Toyohara in late spring of '42, the Allies pose a real threat to IJ resources (and to a lesser extent oil supplies) -both by taking some resource/oil centers and by seizing airfields within range of Hokkaido, one of the Home Islands. I think such a move could put alot of pressure on Japan to divert the KB to NoPac, which might be the saving graces for India or Oz. It's a complicated scenario, but one with potential that I'm willing to try. The key to such a gambit is to hold the Aleutians when and if the time comes to move.

BradfordKay: In Scenario Two, Japan has extra infantry divisions and other advantages that put alot of pressure on the Allies to wisely alocate infantry units utilizing political points very carefully. There just aren't enough of either to go around. A proper defense of Fiji probably requires something on the order of 750 AV, which is hard to cobble together early and strips other critical islands of much-needed defense. I decided to leave Fiji alone in my game with Q-Ball until sometime into the spring of '42. I'm going to do the same here, because 250 or 300 AV at Pago Pago is a strong garrison, but that wouldn't be nearly enough at Fiji. Or so I think.

Bullwinkle: Some very helpful suggestions there. You're right about Oz and strategic bombing, so I do need to ship plenty of AA units there. A mixture of strategic bombing in Oz along with the capture of some high value bases (Ceylon, Fiji, North New Zealand, etc.) might be a viable auto-victory route. I've also contemplated the possibility of a Japanese West Coast carrier raid, return to Pearl Harbor, or even a Victoria Island gambit. As for NoPac, I think such a move would be possible, but ONLY if the KB is committed to India or Oz in a major way for an extended period. I don't know if Steve will aim that way, but I want to be ready if he does. Also, good idea regarding the Dutch Navy, though I am going to do some raiding early in the game.

Dessicat: Yes, the Stingers will be employed again - perhaps even more frequently.

[obvert]

Got it. Thanks. I'll be interested to see all of this play out.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Bullwinkle: Some very helpful suggestions there. You're right about Oz and strategic bombing, so I do need to ship plenty of AA units there. A mixture of strategic bombing in Oz along with the capture of some high value bases (Ceylon, Fiji, North New Zealand, etc.) might be a viable auto-victory route. I've also contemplated the possibility of a Japanese West Coast carrier raid, return to Pearl Harbor, or even a Victoria Island gambit. As for NoPac, I think such a move would be possible, but ONLY if the KB is committed to India or Oz in a major way for an extended period. I don't know if Steve will aim that way, but I want to be ready if he does. Also, good idea regarding the Dutch Navy, though I am going to do some raiding early in the game.

I forgot the best part of Alfred's diobolical plot--you can milk/bleed Sydney for VPs, but if you never take it you don't have to pay the pretty massive garrison cost. I think it's on the order of a full division for the Japanese. Besides Sydney, the Japanese can conduct decimation ops and not take anything important until the Aussies are on their heels in order to save garrison reqs. The transport network is much more advantageous for the invader than is the case in India, especially in the west and northwest.

Also, I don't think Perth is below the LOD. Oz is bowed like a swaybacked horse due to the map projection in the game map. He can grab Perth, which is easy to isolate since there's only one rail in and out, set up a strong naval and air base without triggering the LOD reinforcements.

[obvert]

Is Russia a viable option if taken early, before pilots have trained, and before some units have arrived there? I remember reading someone's AAR where they took Russia early and wiped the board clean there, getting lots of VPs from trapped units destroyed, air wiped, and virtually all of the bases taken. Do any more forces trigger there?

The IJA can achieve the other main objectives without Manchukuo troops, can send some China divisions up there, and then if all goes to plan in Russia, bring most of Manchukuo to wreak havoc on China and even India in late 42. Plus, this sets them up well for resources and sustainability late into the war without running the gauntlet from the SRA. If I were Japan I would certainly feel better having BOTH Russia and China cleaned up early.

Just not sure if it's actually possible.

[Chickenboy]

Most honorable Canoerebel-san,

This message will be my last post in this AAR for the forseeable future. I have decided to reflect my 'true calling' and focus on providing counsel to the honorable Chez-san for your upcoming bout. In fairness, I must withdraw from this AAR at this time (bows) so as not to bias my counsel for him further with any foreknowledge derived from your most enjoyable posts here.

I look forward to your match and wish you well. Oh, yes. One more thing: Long life for the Emperor! BANZAI!

[Canoerebel]

I am saddened to know that Honorable PoultryLad won't be a reader and commentator in this thread...and I'm alarmed that he'll be offering advice to my opponent (merely because PoultryLad gives good advice). I'd rather PoultryLad cast his lot with me, but the dastardly Yankee declined!

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: obvert
Is Russia a viable option if taken early, before pilots have trained, and before some units have arrived there?

To be honest, I don't know if Russia is a viable Japanese option. My hunch is that it isn't, because if it was, more Japanese players would try it. With the extra IJA divisions in Scenario Two, though, the equation might be somewhat different.

If Japan were to attack Russia early, Allied counters that I might consider would be to (1) flood the Burma theater to try to reopen the Burma Road - thus strengthening the Chinese; or (2) a NoPac move (I love them, but only if the KB is confirmed far away).

Such a move in this game isn't beyond the realm of possibility. I'll have to keep it in mind as I consider force disposition. Sending a bunch of American aircraft squadrons to Capetown is a good opening move in support of Asia, though, so I'm glad I did that.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

4. I have absolutley no data, but I have a tingle in my forebrain that he's not going to do any of the things you're worried about. He knows you'll expect him to, and the game is getting mature enough that the obvious early counters are known....

That is an interesting observation. The existing AAR's encompass quite a few opening gambits...some which worked...some which did not work. It would make an interesting compilation.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

4. I have absolutley no data, but I have a tingle in my forebrain that he's not going to do any of the things you're worried about. He knows you'll expect him to, and the game is getting mature enough that the obvious early counters are known....

That is an interesting observation. The existing AAR's encompass quite a few opening gambits...some which worked...some which did not work. It would make an interesting compilation.

Yep. there are a finite number, but we as a community haven't exhausted them.

In particular, I think there's now groupthink that there are a Big 3 of auto-vic targets--Oz, India, and PH. CR's observation above several posts ago that a Japanese player might instead assemble a patchwork combo has me thinking that this may be the next frontier.

A Ceylon is self-contianed and defensible. A NZ does trigger reinforcements, but in Scenario 2 they ought to be able to be handled. NZ is self-contianed. Sprinkle in Darwin (isolated), a couple of Fijis, maybe Perth (isolated), a couple of western Aleutians, plus some of NE India, and you're well on your way. This patchwork would spread the early Allied OOB pretty thin, and might require the RN to leave home waters to help.

[obvert]

A Ceylon is self-contianed and defensible. A NZ does trigger reinforcements, but in Scenario 2 they ought to be able to be handled. NZ is self-contianed. Sprinkle in Darwin (isolated), a couple of Fijis, maybe Perth (isolated), a couple of western Aleutians, plus some of NE India, and you're well on your way. This patchwork would spread the early Allied OOB pretty thin, and might require the RN to leave home waters to help.

The Moose

In addition, these areas offer the best chance of hitting shipping, cutting supply routes, thus adding to the total. Also, in some of the contained areas (like NZ and Ceylon), large forces could be isolated and knocked out, rather than pushed back and weakened.

As the Allied player I would think a move on NZ would require CV action. Also, the one drawback of not going all out for one area is that if the Allies pick a spot to put all of the Australian and British units to push back early enough, the IJA is so spread all over the map they might not have enough local force to counter. It seems massive early fuel and supply to OZ would be essential against this strategy, most likely from Cape Town.

[Canoerebel]

I don't think New Zealand is critical to the Allies unless Japan also has made important inroads in other areas, particularly India or Australia. NZ offers good points for bases and for wiping out troops, but not nearly enough to pose an auto-victory threat by itself. NZ would also be at the end of a very lengthy and vulnerable LOC from Truk/Rabaul. But if you cobble together New Zealand, Fiji, Noumea, non-reinforcement parts of Oz, and strategic bombing in Oz, you might have enough.

Man, I'm starting to perspire just thinking about all the possibilities. I really will have to be diligent in reading the tea leaves in order to get a handle on what Japan might be up to.

[Cap Mandrake]

Having been on the receiving end of Scenario 2, it does seem entirely possible for Japan to take all of the Hawaiian Is (4000 pts plus all the damaged ships plus the destroyed planes plus the garrison [X(]).

Let's say they do the standard attack on Pearl for 1 or 2 days, send KB back for ammo and fuel, then reurn and land by Dec. 15 on the big island or Maui, quickly build up the airfields and then shut down Pearl. They will crush the inexperienced P-40 squadrons there. They begin to bomb the Hell of the ground troops on Oahu.

They seize Palmyra, and Christmas and the Marquesas and Tahiti and then begin to backfill westward. When the ground troops at Oahu are roughed up, then ladn with 3 divisions...et voila! It would be a nightmare