A midwar Japanese AAR (no USS Henrico)

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Interested in the difference in total oil numbers. How is yours so much higher? Isn't this a kind of finite resource for Japan?

Scenario 2 is more forgiving for the Japanese economy than Scenario 1. Pull them both up and look at what you start with. Why I have 1 million more than CB is a big question on how much damage his Oil centers were when he captured them.

Miri was the typical 50% damaged state. Palembang was (relying on creaky memory) about 25-30% damaged. Magwe ~15% damaged. Light to modest damage for Soerbaja and Balikpapan.

The big difference, IMO, is the amount of fuel I have (6 million) to his (2 million). I go against some of my fellow Japanese economic ministers and want a large surplus of fuel vs oil. I would rather have the fuel generated at Palembang than have to transport the oil back to Japan. Plus, the oil takes longer to load than fuel.

This was a bolt out of the blue! Really? I didn't realize there was an appreciable difference in loading speed. Can you elaborate, ny59giants?

Anyways, what are your stores of fuel and / or oil at Palembang in your 1943 game? I'd get a little nervous having 2,000,000 tons of fuel sitting at Palembang for any length of time. Fuel that is at the edges of the empire is fuel that's not feeding industry in Honshu.

Also, without the refining going on on the home islands, what is your home island supply drain looking like?

I have 2 Tanker TFs with those 7950 capacity TKs as CS convoys going from Palembang to Singapore and then send in those small 1250 capacity TKs every once in a while to pick up the extra oil.

Right now, CB is reporting a surplus of 6k in daily Heavy Industry production. I suggested he cut it back to around 4k per day. If all Oil and Fuel shipments were to stop now, he would be out of Oil/Fuel at Honshu in less than 100 days. So much for him to be able to send his warships out of port. [X(]

You're right-I'm getting ahead of myself vis a vis HI production and banking same. I should slow it down a bit to conserve fuel for the home islands. But, at this stage, I also have another 1,000,000 HI 'banked' than you do in scenario 1 versus scenario 2.

This is the 'gold standard' of reserve in my opinion. Fuel not converted into HI, fuel that is relegated solely to refueling ships, is fuel wasted. HI reserves cannot be bombed, degraded by movement, sunk or captured. HI reserves are the ultimate security blanket for the IJ.

Thank you for the heads up on my Honshu 'burn rate', ny59giants. [&o] I've turned off HI in Manchuko for the time being. I've also turned off HI in several HI centers in Honshu, with the exception of Tokyo. I'll let fuel come back up a bit and nibble on my HI reserves for production.

[ny59giants]

OK, I just looked more closely at my Fuel on Honshu. I have almost 300 days worth. [X(] I also have to state two things. My Allied opponent has been very passive in our game. We have gone almost a month without him conducting an offensive air mission. [&:] I bomb in China, along the India/Burma border, and no where else. I have all the South Pacific (Noumea, Suva, Pago Pago). Since early '43 when he tried to run his CVs to just outside Tokyo for a raid, the most he does now is bombard Cox's Bazar and Akyab. Thus, my fuel consumption is probably very low and is mainly my merchant fleet. It will not be until the second half of '44 before we are equal in heavy CVs. I lost a single CA for large warships to date.

This is the farthest I've played a PBEM, regardless of sides. I don't know how slow my economy will become once the Allies crank up their big war machine.

[ny59giants]

Again, my Oil stockpile on Honshu is good (250 days). The problem is Resources with less than 100 days worth. I might need to look at Ocean and Nauru more closely as both have not been tapped enough to have more shipped back to Japan. I might need to get some of those 12k size TFs over there.

[jrcar]

Interesting, at about the same time (August 1943) we have oodles of resources (149 days) and have turned off a lot of convoys, with huge stockpiles in China. About 75 days of oil and 44 days of fuel. Only about 860k of HI though (but lots of useful engines and aircraft in pools), 134k armaments and 24k of vehicles.

All our oil/fuel centres are basically dry, as soon as it is produced it is loaded. Have actually begun repairing some oil centres now. Not many to repair as most were undamaged when taken.

We have about 500k of fuel in tactically significant locations now. That will remain and allows us to fight the war. while we focus on moving the black stuff to the Home Islands... getting a positive upturn though is difficult.

Our focus has been on military victory in favour of logistics, no point in having a great economy that is overrun... otoh the military needs succor or you will fail.

We have a large excess of merchant ships in 1943. Many are disbanded in port to save fuel. In part because we haven't suffered to many losses.

Having Southern China open helps with the movement of resources and fuel to Korea, although the bulk of fuel and oil is shipped long haul.

Resorces are backloaded onto the convoys bringing out the supplies.

Cheers

Rob

[Chickenboy]

Thanks for posting, jrcar. Interesting to compare notes about whereabouts in our respective games.

In reviewing engine production, I believe that I can halt Nakajima Ha-45 production for a month or two. I've been producing lots of this type in preparation for the NIK1-J and Franks. However, in light of my fuel / HI balance issues, I think 979 engines in the bank is sufficient for now.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Gilberts and Marshalls:

Absolute deadsville. Nada. Not a whisper.

There are a few garrison regiments in the area: one on Naura and one on Ocean island. I also took the liberty of splitting the Wake CD group to put ~1/2 on Tarawa. It's not a game changer, but I like the little extra 'stinger' surprise if he tries to take it on the cheap.

Otherwise, I have not beefed up defenses much, but am considering Ponape as a regional fallback bastion to the East of Truk.

I also like Ponape as a fallback, but don't forget to build-up Kusaie Is. if it's not too late. If Kusaie falls, Truk is pretty much done as a port.

But it looks like he's committed to a campaign in the Solomons for the moment, which makes sense given his lack of CVs. I bet he doesn't try anything in the Cent Pac

[KenchiSulla]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Gilberts and Marshalls:

Absolute deadsville. Nada. Not a whisper.

There are a few garrison regiments in the area: one on Naura and one on Ocean island. I also took the liberty of splitting the Wake CD group to put ~1/2 on Tarawa. It's not a game changer, but I like the little extra 'stinger' surprise if he tries to take it on the cheap.

Otherwise, I have not beefed up defenses much, but am considering Ponape as a regional fallback bastion to the East of Truk.

I also like Ponape as a fallback, but don't forget to build-up Kusaie Is. if it's not too late. If Kusaie falls, Truk is pretty much done as a port.

But it looks like he's committed to a campaign in the Solomons for the moment, which makes sense given his lack of CVs. I bet he doesn't try anything in the Cent Pac

I did not build up Kusaie and it fell pretty early. We are now in januari 1944 and I still hold Ponape. Arnhem tried to bomb Truk but I have good fighter coverage and he took a bloody nose. He now has to choose between having divebombers and fighter escort active, sweepers (who can't make Truk) or 4e bombers..

It is not ideal but it could be worse....

[witpqs]

Corsairs (even the first version) can make Truk from Ponape.

[KenchiSulla]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Corsairs (even the first version) can make Truk from Ponape.

Thankfully he doesn't own Ponape yet.. Owning Ponape means closing Truk down..

[Chickenboy]

8/24/43:

China: 12th and 15th armored regiments reach Kweiyang along with 51st recon regiment (armored). Balance of the ground forces should be in within 1-2 days. I do hope that his "20 units" (mostly retreated troops from the Tuyun area) don't attack for a day or two.

The other major offensive pincer is standing down for another day, working off disruption from previous assaults. I will move it across the river hex towards Chungking tomorrow or the day following. I'm 'rotating' out damaged LCUs from this group towards Patung for recuperation of fatigue and disruption.

In what is probably a 'distraction move', the Chinese forces along the Ichang-Sian corridor have entered into the clear hexes in an effort to infiltrate Japanese rear lines-presumably railroad hexes. I've been training up some IJA bomber squadrons for the last three days. This turn, some 258 casualties are so conferred on his LYBs. Yesterday, about 500 were so depleted. I'm moving a few LCUs into the area to plug some holes. However, this is effective at tying up my ground bomber program for the time being-playing whack-a-mole with the Chinese in this corridor is keeping my LBA off of his LCUs in the closing Patung-Kweiyang pocket.

4EBs (mostly B-24s) from Western China hit the airfield at Tuyun, which is still building with base forces. Moderate damage results.

Pacific: SS Peto fires 6 TTs at E W-33 near Iwo Jima. All miss. No effective ASW reply, as Peto dives deep.

SS Sculpin fires 4 fish at E W-19 near Palawan. All miss. Again, no effective reprisal.

Rabaul: Nighttime aerial bombardment destroys 9 Ki-44IIa aircraft on the ground. Considering he's only (mercifully) using a handful of bombers per run, the over-the-top effectiveness of nighttime air raids apparently continues. [8|]

Truk: 2 SCTFs centered around (respectively) BBs Haruna and Kongo leave Truk due South. They will loiter east of Rabaul in order to support defensive operations on or around New Britain.

Glen boats from Truk are ordered to patrol the Australian coast to Milne Bay. I have another two Glen Boats taking up position between Sydney and N. Noumea (in addition to three others already in this area). Two attack boats are ordered to loiter around Rabaul for further defensive orders.

Burma: The British and Indian host will cross the frontier across the river SE of Prome within the next couple of days. I (hope?) think I'm prepared in the defenses here. He ought to suffer significant disruption from the river crossing, so combined with my artillery and dug in infantry, I'm hoping that's sufficient to grant me a 1:2 (or worse-for him) shock attack result.

Ramree island and Akyab: I've ordered regular recon of both hexes. I know both of these are large air bases for him now, with upwards of 200 airframes in each hex. They've been quiet lately waiting, I suspect, for the infantry attack on Prome to make their presence known.

"Sweeping the bleeders": Because he has good radar coverage in Ramree aerodrome, I've been ordering my two Ki-44IIa Sentai at Rabaul to sweep hex 54,49-one hex NW of Prome. This is the hex with his massive army build. He's not LRCAPing them, so there's only 'bleeder' aircraft from his Ramree island CAP. It works out to 8-10 aircraft from 2-3 different groups so arranged. By sweeping this hex (instead of Ramree island), I can achieve significant numerical advantage (3:1) and maximize the likelihood of downing his precious fighter airframes. Today's sweeps netted 9 Allied fighters (Hurricane IIc, IIb and P-40K) for the cost of 6 Tojo aircraft (3 pilots killed). 1.5:1 is still a fair trade in late 1943.

I order 5 glen boats (will join 2 other subs already in theatre) to take up picket positions in the Bay of Bengal and South of Ceylon.

KB: I've ordered KB with heavy surface support towards Port Blair: 9 fleet CVs and two CVLs. The eventual goal will be to cover heavy naval bombardment of Ramree island and Akyab by heavy surface elements.

The Royal Navy has been a no-show since December 1941. If wants a land offensive into Burma, he's going to have to support it by naval supply or risk it stalling on supply and reinforcement issues.

This will be KB's (I hope) last foray into the Burma area. Their presence will be needed back in the SoPac for an operation that I'll reveal below.

In the meantime, TF 224 (CV Junyo, CVEs Hosho, Shinyo, Kaiyo, BB Yamashiro, CA Maya and attendants will move towards Manila. It will refuel there and start towards Truk. I've separated these elements due to their slow speed. I'd still like them present for any pending carrier battle, but their services will not be required for the Bay of Bengal operation.

Industry: HI accumulation slows immediately to 1,947,501 after I turn off many HI centers in Honshu. I will keep it here for awhile to recuperate fuel stores on the home islands. I'll need the leeway for fuel for upcoming fleet operations in the SoPac.

[Chickenboy]

Operation Mitaga:

With the Allied commitment towards exclusively ground and small craft combat ("ant navy") activities in and around P/NG, an opportunity (see map). His narrow axis of advance and his self-restricted use of minor craft make cutting off his pocket feasible.





Within the last month or so, the Allies have fast transported engineers and base forces to Tagula island, building it quietly to a level 3 airfield. Across the waters, Milne Bay has been a hub of small craft activity for some time as well. I believe that he has not heavily reinforced Milne Bay, having sent his LCUs marching northwards towards Lae and Finschafen.

I believe he thinks that these bases represent a rear area and, accordingly, has lightly defended them. Most ground troops are in the Lae area.

Were I to capture both bases, not only could I get the satisfaction of butchering some SeaBees on Tagula, but I could also stem any resupply efforts to E. P/NG and his fingerhold on Arawe (Western New Britain).

The Milne bay venture would be heavily resisted by the USAAF. I imagine that the airfield there will never be functional. S'OK. All I have to do is deny it to him. My main airforces will be deployed to Tagula island, which he has kindly built up on my behalf.

This will take some time for unit prep, but it will take a while to get support (KB) forces back into theatre anyways, after their Bay of Bengal strike / support.

Orders:

Tagula: 28th engineer (38 AV) and 29th IJA infantry division (457 AV) at Manila begin prepping for Tagula island. 10th tank regiment at Truk (80 AV) will supply some shock attack moxie.

At Manila the 2nd, 3rd IJAAF BNs and the 49th JNAF Bn begin prepping for Tagula. The 49th JNAF is very important, as it has one of the few Type 2 radars available to BFs.

Milne Bay: First guards at Aitape and 2nd Guards (Truk) begin prepping for Milne Bay. 1021 AV between them. They will be inserted, destroy what they can and withdrawn-mostly by air. I don't know if I should bother with any base forces for the Milne Bay invasion, as the base will be pummeled mercilessly by heavy bombers in very short order.

Comments?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
I don't know if I should bother with any base forces for the Milne Bay invasion, as the base will be pummeled mercilessly by heavy bombers in very short order.

Comments?

And you think Tagula won't be so treated?

Nice aggressive plan, BTW.

Surprised he hasn't caught on in Burma and set range=0 on those fighters at Ramree Island.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
I don't know if I should bother with any base forces for the Milne Bay invasion, as the base will be pummeled mercilessly by heavy bombers in very short order.

Comments?

And you think Tagula won't be so treated?

Nice aggressive plan, BTW.

Surprised he hasn't caught on in Burma and set range=0 on those fighters at Ramree Island.

Well, he could reach Tagula with heavy bombers, to be sure. It will be difficult for him to escort from Buna or Port Moresby though. 10 hexes is asking a bit much. I'll move some Nicks and Georges into theatre to (partially) deal with the bombers.

I'm thinking that such a threat to his flank may result in deployment of his carriers. I'm at a distinct advantage in that category at present.

[witpqs]

As good as they have done with AE, it is still different than IRL. In AE the 4EB really don't need escorts so much, even though they do help. They'll take some losses but when the base is closed the Nicks and Georges will cease to be a factor.

Do telegraph the carrier battle so I can make the popcorn first. [:)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

As good as they have done with AE, it is still different than IRL. In AE the 4EB really don't need escorts so much, even though they do help. They'll take some losses but when the base is closed the Nicks and Georges will cease to be a factor.

Do telegraph the carrier battle so I can make the popcorn first. [:)]

All I hope to do is delay the Allies expansion towards New Britain and the Admiralties. I believe that taking these two bases will accomplish that-somewhat-by pinching his supply chain. I expect that he will make this expensive by unescorted 4EB punishment of the airfields. Kind of my job then to make him pay for this effort.

I'll telegraph the carrier battle to my loyal reader(s?) beforehand. [;)]

[Cribtop]

Oh, it's readers, CB. This is good stuff. Great to get the defensive perspective on Japan.

[Chickenboy]

8/25/43

Burma: British troops cross the frontier South of Myitkyilina (sp?) in N. Burma, cutting the rail lines. This is one unit (presumably a regiment) in strength, so I'm not too concerned about major forays beyond this.

Another unit crosses into open territory two hexes north of Rangoon.

"Sweeping the bleed": Sweeps over his army units (1 hex SE of Ramree island) yield the loss of 4 Hurricane IIc and XIIb in exchange for 1 Ki-44IIa.

KB: Forces of the Kido Butai leave Singapore for their respective missions. The vast body of available KB and support ships head NW through the Malacca straits. They should be on station in two-three days.

China: Kweiyang: The main body of Japanese infantry arrives, minus the laggard 6th and 68th divisions, which should arrive tomorrow. Bombardment attacks are ordered from the arrived units to suss the strength of Chinese defense. Deliberate attack will likely be ordered upon the arrival of the 6th and 68th.

Tuyun: South of Kweiyang, Tuyun is again targeted by unescorted Allied bombers. Too bad.

10 N1K1-J s meet 15 B-25s in the morning phase, downing 10 of them. Remnants of the George LRCAP are still in place to attack three flights of B-24s in the afternoon. Over the course of the three raids, 17 are supposedly damaged. The last B-24 attack scores moderate damage on the airfield due to the (then) depleted N1K1-J cap.

An engineer unit and a road construction unit arrive at Tuyun by strat movement and will commence airfield repair and enlargement. Until Chungking falls, I forsee a role for Tuyun as a fighter support base. 4 IJAAF base forces are en route.

NE of Ichang: Chinese units, still in the open are pummeled again by IJAAF bombers. 341 casualties are recorded in morning and afternoon phases. Helens beat on Chinese units in the open to the NW of Loyang, resulting in 54 Chinese casualties.

Pacific:

Japan: A rare clear day over the Pacific Ocean near Japan finds SS Sunfish in an awkward spot. Just two hexes off of S. Kyushu, she is set upon by a full Sentai of ASW-trained IJAAF bombers. Three hits are claimed within the morning phase.

TFs ordered to move out yesterday do so towards their holding locations.

HI: 1,947,750. Regulating nicely with the HI factory turnoffs.

[modrow]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Oh, it's readers, CB. This is good stuff. Great to get the defensive perspective on Japan.

+1. Not sure about "loyal", though.

Hartwig

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

As good as they have done with AE, it is still different than IRL. In AE the 4EB really don't need escorts so much, even though they do help. They'll take some losses but when the base is closed the Nicks and Georges will cease to be a factor.

I agree with this POV from the early war perspective. I believe that unescorted bomber forays against well-armed IJNAF or IJAAF mid-late war aircraft spell something very different for the Allies though. It's a different profit:loss story than flying against early war Oscars or A6Ms.

Based in part upon SuluSea's heartening laboratory tests, I believe that the Allies would suffer disheartening A2A or OPS losses from damaged aircraft. I would hesitate to fly B-24s against N1K2-KAI, Franks, Ki-61D or other mid-late war fighters.

I was able to discourage early war B17 strikes from Townsville against PM when I held it. My opponent, with an eye towards historical accuracy, rightly believed that it was not worth trading 1:1 B17 for A6M2 at PM. IRL, the Allies would have found another way. My opponent, after getting bloodied a bit, will probably react similarly.

[Chickenboy]

8/26/43

China: The remaining two IDs arrive at Kweiyang. A "recon by bombardment" illustrated the pathetic defenses of the Chinese defenders in place. They are rabble with low AV. A shock attack is ordered by all available forces in place tomorrow. Kweiyang will fall.

Aerial ground attacks on Chinese units in the open yield 244 casualties (near Ichang) and 67 casualties (near Chengchow).

B25s attempt another ground bombardment of Japanese forces near Kweiyang. 38 B-25s (unescorted) meet 9 N1K1-Js. 8 B-25s are lost for negligible effect.

7 Chinese units are in the open 1 hex west of Chengchow. These have been bombarded daily for a few days now. Today, 58th ID arrives in the hex. It will conduct reconnaissance by bombardment tomorrow and see what is present in opposition.

2 Chinese units are two hexes NE of Ichang and moving SW. This hex has been receiving daily aerial bombardment in an effort to slow down the Chinese host. In the meantime, 32nd ID is heading NE to meet them-hopefully in open terrain in 3-4 days.

West of Patung, 3 hexes SE of Chungking, the right Japanese pincer begins its combat move across the river. 5 debilitated Chinese units await on the opposite bank. If they are cleared, there's nothing between my right pincer and Chungking from the South.

Burma: The Allies cross the river in several locations, in small units. No combat occurs this turn, but am awaiting the main effort any day now.

KB: KB is parallel with Victoria point today. Last night, the lead ASW TF ran over an Allied sub. Later, the submarine was detected by my "heavy cover" BB-heavy TF. KB has not been detected. Here's hoping that he responds to my detected heavies with surface forces only. That would be nice.

Rabaul: Fierce air battles erupt above Rabaul, as it is the target of numerous fighter sweeps. The IJAAF gives as good as it gets, except against the P47s. These FBs are very difficult to bring down and score disproportionate victories against my fighters.

Koepang: Heavy Allied fighter sweeps here are a disaster. Heavy P-38H losses result.

Overall on the day, comparatively few pilot losses for the amount of aerial combat. See below for the day's carnage. All fighter pools are still in good shape.

Fuel: 1,953,904
Oil: 1,375,881
HI: 1,947,929