Ivory Hunt: obvert(J) vs. Historiker(A)

[Justus2]

Indeed - quite an interesting start, and a good chance to explore the potential downside of the infamous calls for 2nd day strikes.

All I could think of when I saw your screenshot that said Japanese Suprised was 'what a great game engine, that it can predict the facial expression of the player as he is watching this replay!'

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Historiker

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

*scratches head* Aint you supoused to being hunted at this point ? sooo confusing.......

[:D]


But the best thing about this turn isn't the result I managed to get. It is my opponent!

Well, during the night phase I thought I had it covered. Then just one more BIG surface TF came right at the KB. You certainly guessed correctly. I guessed right to an extent, but I didn't think you could send that much exactly where I was going.

Strangely I'm not crushed. This should be able to happen and I'm surprised it hasn't more often.

This is good for me. I've learned a lot. Not sure if I'll have any CVs left after tomorrow, but if you want to keep it going I'm game. See what would have happened if Nagumo was an idiot and stayed another day! A little bit of Midway but earlier.

Let me know what you think.

E

He doesn't quit!

Who could blame anyone after this to quit? He'll loose at least 3 fleet carriers on day 2 of the war, while I have good chances to add more sinkings to this. But no, he doesn't quit!
[&o]

Indeed! I tip my hat to you, but my hat is off to your most honorable opponent!

[KenchiSulla]

Well done... The Japanese should not get greedy a trillion miles from home.... without adequate surface cover. Did you set your surface forces to patrol/react?

[JocMeister]

I just read obverts update. Wow!

Congrats and hats off! Glad someone finally made the Jap player pay the price for staying for a second or even third day strike. Latly it has been the norm and way to riskfree and way, way to light on losses due to the games non existant AA! This might cause the Jap players to think one or two times extra before lingering around PH!

Just wanted to drop by and congratulate you!

Jocke

[Cribtop]

As a JFB, I am in a fetal ball asking Mommy to make the Bad Man go away. [X(]

As a player, I salute you, Historiker! What a result! [&o]

[Historiker]

Thank you for all the congratulations. That's why we all write AARs, no? [:)]

I have thought about it some time. While there has to be a lot of respect for my opponent, it is fair and just to keep playing this game. If my descision had gone bad, everyone had expected me to go on as well. The Japanese side has to bear the consequences of his actions as well!


This game will be very different. Even if I loose my two carriers in the hunt, I will still have the upper hand quite fast. But I'll lack the ground troops for quite some time. As obvert keeps playing, I will consequently be fair myself as well. I had already decided against "Fortress Palembang", as I see it as gamey How could a refinery provide half a million men with everything they need?
I will also not exploit this result by going for Hokkaido immediatly. But I ask the readers not to tell this to him, as he shall be forced to act "natural", so put garrisons there in fear of my attacks.

He will have the power the conquer the SRA regardless, as well as taking north Australia and the Solomones. For everything Japan had historically, no carriers are needed. The only exception may b Wake, which will turn this game quite interesting.

This should defenitly be interesting!

[Historiker]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

Well done... The Japanese should not get greedy a trillion miles from home.... without adequate surface cover. Did you set your surface forces to patrol/react?

Yes, but I didn't set them full speed. That's why the BB didn't arrive at night - which turned out not to matter [:)]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I just read obverts update. Wow!

Congrats and hats off! Glad someone finally made the Jap player pay the price for staying for a second or even third day strike. Latly it has been the norm and way to riskfree and way, way to light on losses due to the games non existant AA! This might cause the Jap players to think one or two times extra before lingering around PH!

Just wanted to drop by and congratulate you!

Jocke

From last year - we restarted around post #15; the KB and fleet oiler intercepts (got all the oilers!) commenced around post #20.

[Historiker]

While obvert obviously is still erratiously planning how to save his ships, I can already start planning on how to proceed [8D]
I don't have the turn back, so the map is taken from a 12/7/41 game start.

Allright, the last situation was this:
CV Kaga heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Hiryu heavy fires
CV Soryu on fire
CV Shokaku on fire
CV Zuikaku heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Akagi

So I guess I can expect Zuikaku and Kaga sunk and Hiryu either sunk, too, or still burning and about to sink.
This means, all I have left to consider are the three other carriers. "On fire" unfortunately isn't that much. regarding the distance to the next harbor, this can mean everything. From 10 sys, 10 floaut and 10 engine and thus fully capable of flight operations to sunk on the way to harbor...

Enemy forces:
3 CV, two to three of them able to launch strikes
2 BB propably low on ammo, but at least good enough to throw themselves into the way.
2 CA propably low on ammo, but at least good enough to throw themselves into the way.

Likely escape route.
obvert will want to get the hell outta Dodge, especially with the Enterprise's planes in PH. To flee, he either runs for the Home Islands, for Kwajalein or for Marcus Island. Each direct escape route would lead him through waters that are filled with my SCTFs. Also, he knows I have at least one CV in fighting condition between him and Kwajalein and propably Marcus Island! Some DDs chased the Jap CL east, so they are in the way. Also, IIRC, most of my SCTFs were a little west of the KB, as he turned out to be more east than expected.
So running one of the yellow pathes would mean, he'd likely immediately encounter SCTFs again. So while those routes are the shortest, obvert will not run them. I think he won't go directly.
So where can he go?
- SE, having to stick around PH for an unnecessary long time facing air attacks? Not likely.
- E, racing towards the West Coast? Bold, surely. But what's the goal? Get back in two days and strike again? A possible gamble, but not the one obvert would pull off - especially as it seems bound to fail when he gets back into my reach.
- N seems too direct and too likely
- NE - I'd bet for that!

Assumptions:
Propably setting a waypoint about 7 hex (just outside react range) NE and then heading towards the HI. this might immediately get him out of range of the PA and out of range of my SCTF. When I search him in the West, he will be "gone" and I search in vain. On the other hand, if I go for it, he might indeed try to break through my lines (how stupid and unlikely that seems) and flee west, while I moved my forces out of range on day one of the hunt...
Again: This is so unlikely, that I would bet my right arm against it. He will either flee north or northeast, and intending to save his carriers, he'll rather zig-zag than go a straight line. So he'll go NE!

[Historiker]

Allright...
So I would bet I guessed right, again. But what now?

Let's make a calculation:
He has lost (or will have lost, soon) in his PH strike:
3 CV

I have lost:
2 BB
1 CL
1 DM
7 DD

As I don't have the turn back, yet, I can't really say in which shape the ships are, or how much ammo is left. Damaged ships will have to face a dozend subs on the way to PH...
I guess they are all roughed up, many of them with just a few shots left. Not the best start for a hunt against a heavily defended (he still has 2 BBs and 2 CAs!) fleet!

My options:
a) return to PH to rearm, refuel, regroup and use the filled tanks to go full speed for some days after that in whatever direction I expect to be plausible
b) move my forces NE and hope for the best
c) move my forces W and hope for sightings by Catalinas sent to Wake, Midaway and Dutch Harbor to vector the SCTFs from their positions in the W to where he exactly is!
a-c) send planes back on Big E and try to get both CVs into battle


ad a)
While he not even sightly has the fuel to run full speed all the time, it gets harder and harder to find him with every day that has passed. So while this option might be necessary regarding the ammonition (I can regroup under way thanks to "merge" as well), it may let the KB get away while I could still catch them

ad b)
I mustn't forget one thing: What broke his neck wasn#t the small DD SCTFs with three to four DDs each. It wasn't the CL TFs with 1 or 4 CLs. It was the SCTF with 2 CA and the 1 BB. The BB is sunk, now, and at least one CA is heavily damaged and might not even make it home. So even IF I manage to make contact, again, the likely outcome of the surface combat against two BBs and two CAs isn't in my favour. If the two or three CLs left in fighting condition havent scratched the flat tops until mording - and they won't do so - they will face Vals and Kates with bombs.

ad c)
Regarding a and b, option c) after implementing option a) seems the best choice. I should keep the option to strike


Possible moves:
He will run full power this turn, maybe even the next. This will leave him with empty bunkers. If I manage to sink the oilers, his carriers will be sunk because of empty bunkers! [X(] Thus, it seems best to go after the oilers.


Strategic impact of last day's battle:
Right now, it is a major strategic vitory. He has three carriers left, maybe just two if I have luck. An unlikely (I know my japanese damage control) outcome might even mean 4 carriers left!
If I take 3, this means I've exchanged 3 enemy CVs against 2 BBs, 1 CL and a few DDs. This is an overwhelming victory.
If I hunt him now, I could loose another 3 or 4 modern CLs, 1 CA and two CVs. Even if that happens, I'd still have won a victory. But it would've gotten smaller quite a bit.

So right now, I am thinking about letting him get away! I will defenitly try to send subs to the likely harbors where they'll arrive, but I might abort the hunt. A few CLs just seem too weak to take them out, while putting the two CVs into battle, each alone as there's no time to combine, might result into both getting sunk. Just because I#ve eaten a few of his CVs alive doesn't mean the airgroups of the remaining CVs are suddenly turned into paper tigers! So, without having seen the results, the damage and the ammo onboard, I am teding to let him get away, propably with a small effort to get his oilers. But that should be futile as well, as he'll likely have them "meet" with the KB so they'll be under their cover within about two days.


Changes for the future war:
He might still be stronger than me with the new CVs comeing soon and the MKB. BUT, his overall strength is reduced. This means, the total amount of power he can project from now on is smaller than it was on day one. A reduced power means, it is less likely to saturize defenses, so his losses will mount compared to a 6 CV KB against the same enemy! So even if he continues to achieved victories with the KB from now on, he'll still suffer heavier losses than necessary.

I am really looking forward to this game and just have to tell once more how much I appreciate my opponent!

[wsoxfan]

I personally would go all out for destroying whatever's left of the KB. Based off of the combat reports, he has three carriers (at most) that can support combat operations. They are the Akagi, Soyru, and the shokau. The Akagi can handle 66 planes, the Soyru 57, and the Shokaku 72. Breaking it down more, that makes 54 Zeros, 63 Vals, and 72 Kates. I belive the two US carriers have 36 fighters, 90 dive bombers, and 36 Torpedo planes(not including losses).You could at the very least force him to leave one more carrier behind. Regardless of what you choose though, you're still much better off than the average AFB at this point in the game.

[Historiker]

Sure, I thought about that as well. But while I took Wake's fighters aboard, I wasn't able to upgrade any of the fighters to a better type, yet.
Enterprise also took a torpedo and ispropably not even able to take the planes back onboard due to the distance she is from PH right now.

But let's be honest. My considerations about letting him get away has two reasons:
1. Stated above. I consider my chances smaller and think I will likely only lessen the victory.
2. The descision is made easier by the totally ahistorc consideration, that I don't want to discourage my opponent totally. I don't really want to see a capitulation in april 42.

[bigbaba]

naaaasty one.

du verstehst es echt, einem japaner den tag zu versauen.

und huhu btw.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: Historiker

Sure, I thought about that as well. But while I took Wake's fighters aboard, I wasn't able to upgrade any of the fighters to a better type, yet.
Enterprise also took a torpedo and ispropably not even able to take the planes back onboard due to the distance she is from PH right now.

But let's be honest. My considerations about letting him get away has two reasons:
1. Stated above. I consider my chances smaller and think I will likely only lessen the victory.
2. The descision is made easier by the totally ahistorc consideration, that I don't want to discourage my opponent totally. I don't really want to see a capitulation in april 42.

I understand your considerations especially point 1, but not going for the jugular in the short-medium term is cajoling, indulgent and mollycoddling and not how I'd like my opponent to treat me.

So, I think you are correct in not going for more now as you are still in a vulnerable position, but not taking the fight to him earlier is ... well ... as my father taught me - when I could beat him at anything, I knew I'd beaten him fair and square. Anything else would leave a bitter taste in my mouth.

Just my 2c - no quarter given or taken

[edit]And by going for it maybe he will be able to tip-up the apple cart (or not) and that would be better too than gaining a predominant position and gaining hollow victory.

[Historiker]

ORIGINAL: bigbaba

naaaasty one.

du verstehst es echt, einem japaner den tag zu versauen.

und huhu btw.

ui, ein seltener Gast!
Hast Du Deinen Facebookaccount gelöscht? Wir müssen im Sommer mal einen heben gehen!

[Historiker]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

ORIGINAL: Historiker

Sure, I thought about that as well. But while I took Wake's fighters aboard, I wasn't able to upgrade any of the fighters to a better type, yet.
Enterprise also took a torpedo and ispropably not even able to take the planes back onboard due to the distance she is from PH right now.

But let's be honest. My considerations about letting him get away has two reasons:
1. Stated above. I consider my chances smaller and think I will likely only lessen the victory.
2. The descision is made easier by the totally ahistorc consideration, that I don't want to discourage my opponent totally. I don't really want to see a capitulation in april 42.

I understand your considerations especially point 1, but not going for the jugular in the short-medium term is cajoling, indulgent and mollycoddling and not how I'd like my opponent to treat me.

So, I think you are correct in not going for more now as you are still in a vulnerable position, but not taking the fight to him earlier is ... well ... as my father taught me - when I could beat him at anything, I knew I'd beaten him fair and square. Anything else would leave a bitter taste in my mouth.

Just my 2c - no quarter given or taken

[edit]And by going for it maybe he will be able to tip-up the apple cart (or not) and that would be better too than gaining a predominant position and gaining hollow victory.

I think this may have been misunderstood.

I am just speculating, as I don't have the turn back, yet. So I can't say anything about the actual battlereadyness of my forces. So it might still be possible that I go after him, though it is unlikely. Unlikely, because my forces propably aren't in the state to fight, because I love those powerfull "Boise-Class" US CLs and hate wasting them, and because it is highly unlikely that I'll be able to combine my three CVs in time to strike. So if I send my forces in piecemail, I might still turn this enormous victory into a significantly smaller one.

I plan to handle him fair, but I don't intend to play with him like a cat does with a mouse. So I won't prolong the game unnecessarily, it will last long enough anyways.
He still has more carriers than I have, he has more ground forces, more and better planes. I won't get decend replacement rates for my fighters until the end of the year.

What I ment is, that I won't do things that will stretch the "borders of gameyness". So no Fortress Palembang, which is absolutly unrealistic and an exploit of the game mechanics (how could a refinery feed people, cloth them, provide spare parts, ammonition...), and I won't go directly for Hokkaido.
But I will likely do my first invasion in the next three month to exploit the fact that he didn't have the time to fortify his positions so far. I will also try to reinforce Wake immediately and propably go for Marcus Island in 12/41 already!

[bigbaba]

ORIGINAL: Historiker

ORIGINAL: bigbaba

naaaasty one.

du verstehst es echt, einem japaner den tag zu versauen.

und huhu btw.

ui, ein seltener Gast!
Hast Du Deinen Facebookaccount gelöscht? Wir müssen im Sommer mal einen heben gehen!

servus. ja, habe ich. bin mittlerweile "feind liest mit" fanatiker.

wenn du mal in der gegend bist, dann gib mir einen rippenstoss.

grüsse und mach die japaner weiterhin nass.

[geofflambert]

Just read through your AAR for the first time.  Good grief!  I took screenshots of all the battles to show a friend, he's not going to believe this!  [X(]

[Mike Solli]

So, who has the turn?

[Phanatikk]

I guess this will put to rest the discussion of whether it's cricket for the KB to go USCV hunting on December 8th or not.