OT: The end of the human race

[Nemo121]

I'm surprised no-one has mentioned some of the more likely causes of apocalypse.... while over-prescribing of antibiotics won't end the race it'll mean people die from routine surgery once again... The real danger though is a fragile, rapidly mutating airborne virus a la "swine flu" or marburg. We've been lucky so far in that when Ebola went airborne it was a simian strain with really low infectivity for humans and very mild symptoms.... if a human strain of Ebola became airborne or swine flu variant became more lethal then we'd have a society-ending event ( some would live, obviously for many of the same reasons that a tiny % of the human population is "immune" to HIV ) but you could be looking at 95 to 99%+ death rates IF you had the right mix of latency, infectivity and lethality--- IOW all 3 of the factors which make something a Biosafety Level 4 hazard ( most of the diseases which are BSL 4 meet just one, maybe 2 of the criteria ). To put this into perspective HIV is BSL 2 since it really doesn't have the potential to destroy the world --- just the fabric of certain societies.

[Numdydar]

So something along these lines is what you are refering to is it [:D]?
 
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/plague-inc./id525818839?mt=8
 

[Nemo121]

Yes, that game is a very interesting piece of edutainment. Personally I think they should use that to teach infectious diseases and epidemiology to medical undergraduates.

[Canoerebel]

Somewhere on a book shelf in my house is a book titled, 88 Reasons the Rapture will Occur in 1988.

On another shelf is a book by the same author, written the next year, that he had made a mistake and that the rapture would occur in 1989.

I don't know what that author is doing these days.

Also on my dusty shelves are some NewsGroup magazines from the mid 1970s confirming that we were entering a new ice age.

Also, I have from 2003 a copy of NewsGroup and a copy of Time predicting that the US armed forces were going to get chewed alive by the Iraqui army as they drew closer to Bagdad. Just after those issues arrived in the mail, I was reading them in the cab of my pickup truck, listening on the radio to news that the US forces had rolled into Bagdad and the city had fallen. (This isn't to say anything about the long and trying period to follow.)

NewsGroup no longer offers a print edition. Time is now a pamphlet-sized publication that specializes in ranking colleges and hospitals and propaganda.

Meanwhile, reality is very different from apocalyptic predictions. Mayan calendar, meteor, asteroid, war, disease, global warming, overpopulation, polution, death, the end!

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Somewhere on a book shelf in my house is a book titled, 88 Reasons the Rapture will Occur in 1988.

On another shelf is a book by the same author, written the next year, that he had made a mistake and that the rapture would occur in 1989.

I don't know what that author is doing these days.

Also on my dusty shelves are some NewsGroup magazines from the mid 1970s confirming that we were entering a new ice age.

Also, I have from 2003 a copy of NewsGroup and a copy of Time predicting that the US armed forces were going to get chewed alive by the Iraqui army as they drew closer to Bagdad. Just after those issues arrived in the mail, I was reading them in the cab of my pickup truck, listening on the radio to news that the US forces had rolled into Bagdad and the city had fallen. (This isn't to say anything about the long and trying period to follow.)

NewsGroup no longer offers a print edition. Time is now a pamphlet-sized publication that specializes in ranking colleges and hospitals and propaganda.

Meanwhile, reality is very different from apocalyptic predictions. Mayan calendar, meteor, asteroid, war, disease, global warming, overpopulation, polution, death, the end!

Wasn't that Harold Camping?


RE: the whole end of the human race thing - life in this universe is fragile. It can end at any time for any number of reasons. The universe is a dangerous place.

I wouldn't worry about it. It's always been this dangerous, and always will be. Just because somebody says something or an article comes out now, doesn't mean that it's any different now than it always has been. Culture war issues perhaps notwithstanding...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: wdolson

Doomsday scenarios are part of that negative bias. We have this niggling feeling that if things are going OK, they must be a sabre toothed tiger around here somewhere and we're its next meal. Because sabre toothed tigers are extinct (and we're not!), we scare ourselves with the dangers that could conceivably happen.

Bill

Yeahbut, yeahbut . . .

Today I read about MERS (scary stuff) on the SAME DAY (!!!!) "World War Z" debuts in theaters. Coincidence? I think not.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

I'm surprised no-one has mentioned some of the more likely causes of apocalypse.... while over-prescribing of antibiotics won't end the race it'll mean people die from routine surgery once again... The real danger though is a fragile, rapidly mutating airborne virus a la "swine flu" or marburg. We've been lucky so far in that when Ebola went airborne it was a simian strain with really low infectivity for humans and very mild symptoms.... if a human strain of Ebola became airborne or swine flu variant became more lethal then we'd have a society-ending event ( some would live, obviously for many of the same reasons that a tiny % of the human population is "immune" to HIV ) but you could be looking at 95 to 99%+ death rates IF you had the right mix of latency, infectivity and lethality--- IOW all 3 of the factors which make something a Biosafety Level 4 hazard ( most of the diseases which are BSL 4 meet just one, maybe 2 of the criteria ). To put this into perspective HIV is BSL 2 since it really doesn't have the potential to destroy the world --- just the fabric of certain societies.

Like I said, MERS. It's coming!!!! [:)]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Somewhere on a book shelf in my house is a book titled, 88 Reasons the Rapture will Occur in 1988.

On another shelf is a book by the same author, written the next year, that he had made a mistake and that the rapture would occur in 1989.

I don't know what that author is doing these days.

Enjoying spending your money? [;)]

[Canoerebel]

I didn't buy those books. I acquired them from a class somewhere and then kept them to use as examples of "apocalyptic fever" when I teach, from time to time.

[John 3rd]

I, personally, subscribe to King's scenario in 'The Stand.'



"It's the end of the world as we know it and I FEEL fine."

"Don't fear the Reaper!" BOC

[Lecivius]

It's a mathematical certainty that mankind as a society will fail. The only variable is technology.

[Justus2]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I, personally, subscribe to King's scenario in 'The Stand.'

That was a great book, I remember reading it years ago (shortly out of college). It was late one night, there was a storm out, I was listening to the radio and it cut out, so my little apartment became creepy-quiet. Next thing I knew, I coughed, and I sat up with a start "Oh my God, now I'm infected!!"

That was a sign of really being drawn into the story! [;)] Not really a fan of Steven King or the horror genre, but that one still stands out for me.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Justus2

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I, personally, subscribe to King's scenario in 'The Stand.'

That was a great book, I remember reading it years ago (shortly out of college). It was late one night, there was a storm out, I was listening to the radio and it cut out, so my little apartment became creepy-quiet. Next thing I knew, I coughed, and I sat up with a start "Oh my God, now I'm infected!!"

That was a sign of really being drawn into the story! [;)] Not really a fan of Steven King or the horror genre, but that one still stands out for me.

The Stand is one of my favorite ever. Because of it, I also read Dark Tower. Flagg is one of my favorite villains.

I haven't read much of his other stuff, but his fantasy-horror I quite adore. I'll probably re-read Dark Tower within a year or so. There are rumblings it's going to be produced as a TV show.

[wdolson]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Somewhere on a book shelf in my house is a book titled, 88 Reasons the Rapture will Occur in 1988.

On another shelf is a book by the same author, written the next year, that he had made a mistake and that the rapture would occur in 1989.

I don't know what that author is doing these days.

Also on my dusty shelves are some NewsGroup magazines from the mid 1970s confirming that we were entering a new ice age.

Also, I have from 2003 a copy of NewsGroup and a copy of Time predicting that the US armed forces were going to get chewed alive by the Iraqui army as they drew closer to Bagdad. Just after those issues arrived in the mail, I was reading them in the cab of my pickup truck, listening on the radio to news that the US forces had rolled into Bagdad and the city had fallen. (This isn't to say anything about the long and trying period to follow.)

NewsGroup no longer offers a print edition. Time is now a pamphlet-sized publication that specializes in ranking colleges and hospitals and propaganda.

Meanwhile, reality is very different from apocalyptic predictions. Mayan calendar, meteor, asteroid, war, disease, global warming, overpopulation, polution, death, the end!

My father said he recalls seeing a guy back in the 1930s when he was a teen claiming the world was about to end. He's seen a lot of predictions of doom come and go since.

Bad things do happen in the world. The game this forum is about is one of the largest human events/disasters in history. (It was a disaster for those directly effected.) But I've found human imagination for what could conceivably happen is usually far more colorful than real events most of the time. Look at all the various disaster movies that have been made. Very few ever happened.

It's possible Yellowstone will explode tomorrow, or California will have a massive earthquake that does a lot of damage (or the New Madrid fault will move flattening St Louis), or, or, or. However, the safe bet is that the world will continue to bumble along like it did today. The news will have a few stories that may be worth note, but in the grand scheme of things, probably not anything that will be remembered in 100 years, nor will the human race go extinct any time soon.

Bill

[Justus2]

Well, if you are really concerned about any of the above in our lifetime (and have some cash), might want to give these people a call:
Kansas Survival Caves

[X(]

[wdolson]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Like I said, MERS. It's coming!!!! [:)]

A few years ago it was SARS that was going to kill us all.

Not all of the disaster scenarios are profit driven, but some of it is. When I start hearing lots of fear laden stories about some potential disaster, I start looking for who stands to make a buck from it.

Bill

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: wdolson

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Somewhere on a book shelf in my house is a book titled, 88 Reasons the Rapture will Occur in 1988.

On another shelf is a book by the same author, written the next year, that he had made a mistake and that the rapture would occur in 1989.

I don't know what that author is doing these days.

Also on my dusty shelves are some NewsGroup magazines from the mid 1970s confirming that we were entering a new ice age.

Also, I have from 2003 a copy of NewsGroup and a copy of Time predicting that the US armed forces were going to get chewed alive by the Iraqui army as they drew closer to Bagdad. Just after those issues arrived in the mail, I was reading them in the cab of my pickup truck, listening on the radio to news that the US forces had rolled into Bagdad and the city had fallen. (This isn't to say anything about the long and trying period to follow.)

NewsGroup no longer offers a print edition. Time is now a pamphlet-sized publication that specializes in ranking colleges and hospitals and propaganda.

Meanwhile, reality is very different from apocalyptic predictions. Mayan calendar, meteor, asteroid, war, disease, global warming, overpopulation, polution, death, the end!

My father said he recalls seeing a guy back in the 1930s when he was a teen claiming the world was about to end. He's seen a lot of predictions of doom come and go since.

Bad things do happen in the world. The game this forum is about is one of the largest human events/disasters in history. (It was a disaster for those directly effected.) But I've found human imagination for what could conceivably happen is usually far more colorful than real events most of the time. Look at all the various disaster movies that have been made. Very few ever happened.

It's possible Yellowstone will explode tomorrow, or California will have a massive earthquake that does a lot of damage (or the New Madrid fault will move flattening St Louis), or, or, or. However, the safe bet is that the world will continue to bumble along like it did today. The news will have a few stories that may be worth note, but in the grand scheme of things, probably not anything that will be remembered in 100 years, nor will the human race go extinct any time soon.

Bill

Thanks a lot Bill! I honestly had not heard of the New Madrid fault that you mentioned. As I sit in my hotel room JUST outside St. Louis, preparing to move myself and all my worldly possessions here, and hurriedly look up the referenced disaster. ARG!!!!! I thought I left that crap in Seattle and on Guam!!!! [:D] Now I need to worry about tornados AND earthquakes! I'm doomed, doomed I tell you!........[X(][8|][:D]

[wdolson]

Washington State building codes take into account the possibility of earthquakes. I don't know of any Midwestern state that has earthquake provisions in their building codes.

Fortunately the geologic record shows that the New Madrid fault doesn't move very often. It has major earthquakes about ever 400 years, though there is a report from a missionary in modern day Tennessee who reported a mild earthquake on Dec 25. 1699 that was probably from the New Madrid fault.

bill

[zuluhour]

I suspect we have met our end many times....we are good at it.

[Justus2]

ORIGINAL: wdolson

Washington State building codes take into account the possibility of earthquakes. I don't know of any Midwestern state that has earthquake provisions in their building codes.

Fortunately the geologic record shows that the New Madrid fault doesn't move very often. It has major earthquakes about ever 400 years, though there is a report from a missionary in modern day Tennessee who reported a mild earthquake on Dec 25. 1699 that was probably from the New Madrid fault.

bill

It doesn't move often, but when it does, it tends to cause a lot of turmoil and travel a long way, due to the different composition of the soil here and lack of mountains/rocky formations. The last major one (actually 3 major ones, 7.5-7.7 each) in 1811-1812 were so strong, they rang church bells in Philadelphia, and were felt in Charleston SC and Boston. Luckily the land was sparsely populated at the time, but it had tremendous affects, changing the course of the Mississippi river (even flowing backwards for a period).

New Madrid 1811-1812