Decline & Fall AAR v2

[composer99]

Japan's Force Pool(s)

Here are the force pools for Japan's land-based air units. This pool shows the units available as of this turn.

With the exception of a few weak fighter units, every single one of these air units would be useful. The air transports' utility is constrained by the presence of absence of enemy fighters, but could be used for reorganization or even air transport.

That being said, each of these units must be produced and outfitted with a pilot, so you can bet it's going to be difficult to get even a substantial fraction of them in play (to say nothing of the fact that Japan will surely take losses).

[composer99]

The land-based air units Japan receives in 1945. Most of them are pretty sweet by Japan's standards.

You can see two special naval bombers (the MXY7 or "Okha" units) with black death's head icons. These are flying bombs (aka specialized kamikaze aircraft). Japan has to outfit these with pilots, but as soon as they fly, they and their pilot are destroyed. (If the death's head icon was white, the pilot would survive.)

Of course, there's no guarantees Japan will get to build any of these, much less see them in action.

[composer99]

This is Japan's current force pool of carrier planes (CVP).

Japan has kept a few older, crapper ones in hopes they fit on its empty light carriers, either this year or next.

Japan does need to build CVP to replace losses and fit the new carriers coming online the rest of this year.

[composer99]

Japan's pool of 1945 CVP.

Since CVP take 4 turns to arrive once built, these are pretty much out of the game. Which is too bad. Now, if Japan were flush enough with production and its force pools were empty enough to consider building ahead, that would be a different story, because these are some quality CVP.

It's worth noting that Japan gets CVP in the force pools in 1946, 1947, and 1948. Of course in MWiF you'll only see that when playing with the extended game option, or if Japan is doing so well that it can afford to build ahead that far out.

[composer99]

Here are Japan's force pools of naval units other than regular transports.

As it would take 8, 10, or even 12 turns for these units to appear on the map if Japan built them, and this scenario is only 8 turns long... well, basically Japan can forget about it.

[composer99]

Here is Japan's force pool of naval transports.

Unlike all its other naval units, convoys excepted, Japan might actually build one or two of these.

A naval transport (TRS) unit takes 3 turns to go through its first cycle of production (entering the Construction Pool upon completion) and another 3 turns to arrive on the map.

So the transports built in the first two turns will arrive during the final two turns, where they might come in handy when Japan needs to desperately shuttle land units from place to place. Sure, they might last one impulse, or even get sunk trying to deliver their cargo, but arguably that's better than not even having the extra lift capacity in the first place.

[composer99]

Here is Japan's force pool of land units.

Japan basically needs every single one of these on the map to defend its overseas objective hexes, mount a reasonable defence of China and Manchuria, and defend Japan itself.

Even the supply units could come in handy, as by the summer of 1945 Japan simply might not be able to keep naval supply lines open for any length of time. As such, being able to expend a supply unit on an HQ, such that it is a primary supply source for the rest of the turn, is surely a useful function.

[composer99]

Japan Production Strategy

Having seen Japan's reinforcements and force pools, we can formulate a basic production strategy for Japan.

Estimated Production
Japan's minimum production, if only production available overland is possible, is 8 build points.

If instead Japan can maximize its overseas production, it will receive 18 build points.

Assuming Japan gets through all production, less 1 resource so that it can save an oil in Japan, it produces 17 build points.

Thus, Japan aspires to produce 17 build points per turn, but must budget on the off chance it ends up producing 8.

Naval Builds
Even if Japan gets all its production through, it has unused resources. Further, Japan wants to keep its lines of supply and resource shipping open against the possibility of suffering losses.

Finally, as noted above, it would be nice to have some spare sealift floating around, as a contingency against losses or to have available in the final stages of the game.

However, Japan also needs land and air units, badly.

So, in a minimal production scenario, Japan will build 2 convoys per turn, or even none. If production is on target during the first two turns Japan will build its convoys, plus start transports. During maximum production turns, any turn where Japan builds no transports, it will instead build 4 convoys.

Japan will stop building naval units once they will no longer arrive in time.

Air Unit Builds
Japan requires fighters, naval bombers, and carrier planes to contest the seas against the powerful US Navy and to keep the Allied air forces at bay.

As such, during minimal production turns, Japan will produce either 1-2 CVP and one pilot, or one land-based plane and 1 pilot. As Japan produces more, up to target, it will produce an additional pilot.

Japan will stop building air units once they will no longer arrive in time.

Land Unit Builds
Any excess production not used to build naval or air units will build land units. In minimal production cases, Japan will build a single 2- or 3-build point unit. In high production cases, Japan will build two land units, if possible 1 ARM/MECH and one other unit.

Japan will try to leave militia and territorial building to the last production phase of any use (May/June), as they are the only units that will arrive before the end of the scenario.

[composer99]

Step 3. Germany Setup

On to Germany. Let's start with scrapping, where I will go into a bit more detail.

Germany Scraps Units

Germany scraps every eligible FTR unit with less than 6 combat factors:

[composer99]

Germany also scraps bombers aggressively, even some Stukas with 4 tactical bombing factors.

The 3-cost bombers (2-engine bombers) with 4 tactical factors get spared because 4 is about as good as it gets for most of Germany's 3-cost bomber pool.

Not shown is Germany's naval bomber scrapping: I scrapped the two old flying boat units in favour of the newer, stronger 3-cost naval bombers.

[composer99]

Germany scraps old submarines. Germany actually begins with a large sub fleet on the map, so it doesn't scrap too much.

[composer99]

German scrapping of sealift.

Germany expects to use its sealift the least out of any major power, except possibly the USSR. If Germany has some spare land units to shuttle to Finland or Norway it might do so, but that's about it.

[composer99]

Germany only scraps a single land unit, the 3-factor field artillery unit.

Germany might have been more aggressive in scrapping its older pink-rated anti-tank/anti-air units, but as it's on the strategic defensive and expects the Allies to try to rip out its metaphorical guts with most of their armoured forces, Germany needs all the anti-tank power it can get.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

I forget the exact rules; I know that if Germany has a german unit in both Norway and Finland (set up convoy points to technically count!) you can move units through Sweden. I forget if it's German nationality only though, or if it's any German controlled unit.

Might help, not so much to conserve sealift, but to conserve action limits. You can use your more numerous rails rather than your naval moves.

[composer99]

Germany Overall Strategy Notes

Objective(s)
- Germany's primary goal is to run out the clock on the Allies, ideally with 11 or more objective hexes under its control.
- Germany aspires to defend each objective hex with two strong corps and a division, even after it has been cut off from the line (unless sending reinforcements by land is no longer possible).
- Germany aspires to maintain as high production and oil supply as is possible; including shipping resources overseas from Scandinavia to Europe.

Advantages
Germany has a few advantages in this latter stage of the game:
- While early on the Allies will probably be focused on Germany because of the invasion of France, they must sooner or later - with the unfortunate exception of the USSR - split their attention to also fight Japan. This means Allied impulse calls where not much is happening in Europe, or where Germany can at least get ahead of the action.
- The Allies have a dearth of sealift. As such, any losses will be crippling, until next summer when new transport units would arrive.
- Germany's army is, in terms of quality, the best if not second best, in the game. Germany's air force is similarly of excellent quality.
- Germany begins with a very large force of submarine squadrons, many of which are quite powerful, which can be sacrificed in an heroic effort to sink Allied sealift - sinking Allied convoys is a bonus, but is simply no longer the primary use of submarines at this point.
- German forces can slow the Allied advance by forming up lines along rivers, counter-attacking initial crossings, and simply by virtue of their high combat factors.
- Apart from perhaps one combined impulse a turn to sail out subs, Germany does not often need to perform different kinds of impulses to fight the Allies.
- With some limited exceptions German production does not depend on overseas shipping.

Disadvantages
- When Germany does want to perform impulses other than land impulses, it may find it cannot due to the rampages of the Red Army.
- Germany begins with no offensive chits, either in its reserve or in production, with which to launch a large scale counter-attack to stymie the Allies.
- Germany is stretched in multiple directions, with requirements to set up units in and/or defend Norway, Denmark, the Low Countries, France (all three coastal areas), Italy, and the Balkans from the Allies, and to set up units in and/or defend Rumania, the Balkans, Poland, the Baltic States, and Finland from the USSR. Eventually Germany will also have to set up defences in Germany itself.
- Despite the quality of its army and air force, Germany simply does not have enough units at set-up to defend everywhere adequately.
- Nearly half of German oil begins precariously close to the front line, and is quite likely to be lost this summer.
- German saved oil stockpiles are inadequate.
- Strong focus by the Allies, and especially use of offensive chits against Germany, can result in Germany losing too many units to replace. What's worse, whether this happens or not is not up to Germany to decide.

Giving Up Objectives
- Germany requires 10 objectives to tie the game. As noted just above, one of Germany's goals is to end the game with 11 objective hexes still under its control.
- Unlike Japan, Germany can easily reinforce its objective hexes overland, and the ones separated by sea can either be reinforced reasonably easily (Oslo, Helsinki) or belong to neutral countries (Stockholm). The Allies probably won't get into the Baltic until 1945, which means reinforcing Scandinavia won't be a problem until then.
- Germany can give up 8 objective hexes and still win.
- As long as the Allies don't breach the Rhine (in the West) or the Carpathians and the Vistula (in the East) the Germans can pull off a victory.

[composer99]

ORIGINAL: Ur_Vile_WEdge

I forget the exact rules; I know that if Germany has a german unit in both Norway and Finland (set up convoy points to technically count!) you can move units through Sweden. I forget if it's German nationality only though, or if it's any German controlled unit.

Might help, not so much to conserve sealift, but to conserve action limits. You can use your more numerous rails rather than your naval moves.

Yes, leaving a convoy in these areas came up in version 1 of the AAR.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

ORIGINAL: composer99

ORIGINAL: Ur_Vile_WEdge

I forget the exact rules; I know that if Germany has a german unit in both Norway and Finland (set up convoy points to technically count!) you can move units through Sweden. I forget if it's German nationality only though, or if it's any German controlled unit.

Might help, not so much to conserve sealift, but to conserve action limits. You can use your more numerous rails rather than your naval moves.

Yes, leaving a convoy in these areas came up in version 1 of the AAR.

I more meant it in the sense that I don't know if Germany can use the link to move the Finnish units in and out through Sweden. Sorry if I wasn't clear.

[DQ2004]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Under normal circumstances, it is only a foolish Japanese player that does not build the light carriers well before now, IMHO. Especially the faster ships like Ibuki. Of course in this scenario you can't help that.

Regards

[composer99]

German Setup - Scandinavia

In the northern reaches of Scandinavia, Germany has token forces present: a unit in Narvik to keep the convoy lines open over the winter, and a unit in Petsamo to keep the resource from becoming an Allied freebie.

[composer99]

German Setup - The Baltic

Here is Germany's set up in the Baltic Sea area, including southern Norway and Denmark.

The flyout shows the 0 sea box section of the Baltic Sea zone.

For its part, Norway has two strong infantry sitting in Oslo, basically left with "dip" orders in case the Allies invade.

Denmark is home to the long-range NAV, which may fly out on a death ride to try to sink Allied sealift. It is also home to an armoured corps which will shortly be relocating elsewhere (such as, say, France, or Italy).

Edit: In case you were wondering, the setup chart for this scenario specifies 1 ARM and 1 MECH corps set up in the Denmark/Norway/Finland area. Certainly I wouldn't want to start a big armour corps like that in Denmark.