The blizzard Bug is Still with Us

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MikeB
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Better

Post by MikeB »

At least it sounds better than what we now have...which i perceive to be almost automatic shatter.

A bonus would be if one were able to target "Readiness" rather than provide special supply. ie. all units would have same readiness value.
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K62_
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Post by K62_ »

Ricky,

I think that if you do that change in readiness mechanics the Germans would get an unfair advantage. It is possible for the German player to special supply his entire line and keep it at 99% readiness through the blizzards. It doesn't even cost that many OP's. Then it would be impossible for the Russians to break through, as 99% squared is 98% :rolleyes:
"Power always thinks it has a great soul and vast views beyond the comprehension of the weak" - John Adams
RickyB
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Post by RickyB »

Originally posted by K62
Ricky,

I think that if you do that change in readiness mechanics the Germans would get an unfair advantage. It is possible for the German player to special supply his entire line and keep it at 99% readiness through the blizzards. It doesn't even cost that many OP's. Then it would be impossible for the Russians to break through, as 99% squared is 98% :rolleyes:
K62,

Keeping readiness up in the first year blizzard is more difficult than you think. The cost is 3 points per infantry division, 6-7 per panzer division depending on armor sub units, and 1 per battalion. So a fairly weak corps with 3 infantry divs and 3 artillery/armor bns will cost 12 ops points. And the boost at SL 6 is about 20 readiness, but it drops off from there, around 12 at SL 3, etc. Except at SL 5, maybe 4, or higher, readiness will drop each turn, not go up. So some units will be much lower than 99.

Now a German player who stops early and digs in will keep readiness up high enough not to shatter. Only units that start the blizzard already fairly low will be at risk of shattering, but that is what we want. A German who stops early shouldn't risk much shattering - it is the aggressive German who keeps moving or attacking that will be at risk.
Rick Bancroft
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K62_
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Post by K62_ »

RickyB,

Squaring the readiness is a very elegant idea. But I think that, if you want it to work, you also need to make special supply more expensive or something like that.

If, as the German player, you withdraw all tank divisions and independent batallions (which is a sensible thing to do anyway) you can put about 4 inf divisions in each corps and have 3-4 such corps for each HQ. Then you form a line at SL 5-6 and have plenty of OP's to special supply. I tried this in a couple of games, it worked to keep the readiness up to 90+ but the line shattered quickly because of the bug.

With the bug eliminated the line should hold very well. With a continous front line your troops can only get attacked by 2, sometimes 3 Soviet Armies. You would even be able to counter-attack the breaks successfully.

I think that if special supply were made more expensive (say, doubled in cost) then the German player would have to choose which sections of the line to make strong by special supply. No matter what he does he would have weak spots that the Russians can take advantage of. If they're smart enough ;)
"Power always thinks it has a great soul and vast views beyond the comprehension of the weak" - John Adams
RickyB
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Post by RickyB »

But did you start with troops that had been attacking, and dropped in readiness down to the 30s as is easy to do if you attack right up to the blizzard? Or were your troops fairly well prepared? Also, there are random readiness drops when the ops points for an HQ are below 50, and they get bad even lower. Very low ops points, a result of lots of special supplies, can lead to shatters, or at least heavy losses and retreats, even in good weather. Anyway, I played it out by attacking into the winter and I couldn't get readiness up to 50 for the active units the first blizzard turn, because many units had readiness around 25-30. Again, if you prepare, which you would have to do to pull out units as you say, there shouldn't be many if any shatters.

If you have a saved game like this, please send it to me and I will try it with the latest version.
Rick Bancroft
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MikeB
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Statistics...

Post by MikeB »

I had forgot about 99% squared being 98%.

One could make Blizzard readiness a max of 90% ?

Rick:
you might be able to use my previously posted Dec 7, 41 and Dec 14,41 game position to test K62's concern about high SL, early retrenchment of G units.

K62 :
Does the German have that many units that he CAN make a good front line the n-s distance of Russia. I tend to keep korps back in captured cities with 1 div so as to limit partisan nonsense. Perhaps this is being ultra conservative. Does one need to protect against partisans in 41/42 ?
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K62_
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Post by K62_ »

RickyB,

Unfortunately I gave up the idea quite a while ago because of the blizzard bug, so I have no saves anymore. If you'd like to, we could play a "quick and dirty" game just to get to the blizzards and see what happens.

As far as I can tell, the German player has 3 main possibilities of dealing with the blizzard:

1.Historical

Attack right into the blizzard. Not a very rational idea, maybe just if you're one step away from taking Moscow - or even Gorki. This should make it possible for an opponent of equal skill, if he survives, to push you back 200 miles with heavy losses, like it actually happened.

2.Mildly Agressive

This involves attacking through most part of November, but stopping a couple of turns before the blizzard to form a rather sketchy defensive line. This approach is a compromise: try to kill many Russians so they won't kill you during the blizzard but also try to find some kind of shelter for your behind. The Soviets should probably be able to punch a few holes through your line, but not do very much shattering.

3.Defensive

This is about stopping, or at least seriously reducing, your attacks sometime during October to start entrenching on a very well-chosen defensive line. Such a line should be very hard to breach for the Russians, so you can save a lot of German lives. On the other hand, you let many more Ivans live to attack you and gain experience. Also, you will probably end up with less territory than otherwise.

There should be a trade-off between these three strategies, as each had its own advantages and disadvantages in reality. The problem with the game right now is that the historical option is practically the only one available, as you get pushed back 200 miles anyway and you want to at least kill as many Russians as possible before that.

Your solution is a big improvement to this, making it possible to organize a defense. Most people who ever suffered from the blizzard bug (including myself) would probably much prefer it to the current version. But I think it still has a drawback, though, and that is failing to make a significant difference between approaches #2 and #3, so that there might be a distinct advantage to digging in early.

Because special supply is very easily available in large quantities, 2-3 turns of doing it to your stationary troops in the snow would be enough to bring them to very high readiness just before the blizzard. And, as I have already said, 99% squared is 98%...

So there would be no big point in being very defensive and digging in early. We all know that the best entrenchment can only hold a determined attacker back a couple of turns. If the supply is much the same, the best thing to do is to just go on and destroy Soviet units - approach #2.
"Power always thinks it has a great soul and vast views beyond the comprehension of the weak" - John Adams
shane056
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Post by shane056 »

Hmmm.. Interesting points covered so far..

But I still advocate, as previously stated on this thread, for a simpler solution based largely on entrenchment values.

A quick re-run if I may.. If the axis opponent ceases offensive operations at say mid October 1941, and immediately entrenches his forces, his entrenchment values will probably average around four (4) by the time the blizzard starts in late November or the beginning of December 1941. If he/she stops earlier, they will be at even greater values.
At this value the axis player, should be largely immune to the effects of the blizzard, as it represents that a strong logistical supply train is in place, (ie.. with high supply values of 6), the troops are securely dug in, protected from the effects of weather, and thus not exposed, out in the open, and that sufficient enough time was allowed for the winterisation of both men and equipment to take place.

At entrenchment level 0 ..Shattering should be a high probability, with very high losses.
At entrenchment level 1 ..Shattering should be at a lower probability, but with retreat being a high probabitity, with reasonably high losses.
At entrenchment level 2 ..Shattering should be at a very low probability, with retreat being a reasonable outcome, with high losses.
At entrenchment level 3 ..Shattering should be at a very very low probability, and retreat also being low, with standing the ground being a reasonable outcome, with reasonable losses.
At entrenchment level 4 and above ..Shattering should be largely non existant, with a very low probability for retreat, and with standing the groung being the accepted outcome. Minimal losses.

The above premise is based on the fact, that during the winter of 1941/42, the german army was hit reasonably hard by fresh soviet troops, whilst it was exposed to the full effects of the winter weather, stuck out in the open trying to conduct offensive operations (crazy). But!! as soon as these tired, undernourished, improperly equiped soldaten, fell back and hedge-hogged themselves around some nodal point on a partly functioning supply line, (eg.. Rhzev), these fresh soviet troops could not dislodge them, no matter what.. Why was this so? The possesion of shelter, with the chance of some time spent under cover, and the continuance of some supplies, enabled the soldaten to resist to a much higher degree, than if he was out in the open. Many times during this period, a german unit hedge-hogged in a village, would send out patrols the next morning, to discover that the soviet unit attacking them the day before, had frozen to death overnight, even with their winter gear on.

Given the right conditions (hedge-hog defense, some supplies, improvisation), the german soldier, even with his lack of winterisation, could, and did fight successfully against the so called fresh soviet troops, who themselves, suffered badly also from the blizzard conditions, especially when their supplies ran out.

The Germans were not as lame in the winter period as is popularly believed, and they did know of the effects of the russian winters, it's just that the generals, made the wrong decission in November 1941 to carry on with Typhoon in the face of massive weather changes.. Absolutely criminal.. Believe it or not, but the stand and defend order, is what prevented the german army from being totally wrecked on the battle field.

Just my 2 cents worth again ...Shane
MikeB
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Mid Oct 41

Post by MikeB »

I believe i kept advancing through to about 1/2 week of Nov
and when the blizzards came @Dec 7, 41....i had many troops at level 4 entrenchment. some 2/3 were even at level 6. Remember, even on advancing, not all troops move forward or are automatically successful in their attacks.(at least mine weren't in southern Russia around Poltava).
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